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Old 02-07-2012, 03:52 PM    (permalink
Ghost of Juice
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Personally I would take Griffin because I have a bias towards him, I just like him and some of the things he can do are really special, plus I am a big fan of his personality.

But If I was the Colts GM I couldn't really factor any of my personal feelings in my decision making. Luck is clearly the choice, I don't see any way that he doesn't become at least a steady solid starter. You can't gamble with the first overall pick.

So If I am the Colts I take Luck, but if i'm playing Madden I will choose Griffin.
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Old 02-07-2012, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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I think Luck is the greatest thing since sliced bread for football prospects at the QB position as he combines one of the best levels of upside and readiness in a prospect in a long time (I think there's an argument that Andrew Luck now is a better prospect than Peyton coming out). I think Luck should be the clearcut number 1.

That said, RG3 is fascinating. His passing acumen is far better than, say, Newton's last year. His field vision, his understanding of hi/lo, his 1-5 understanding, it's all superb. I still think he's better off getting a QB coach to touch up his mechanics a bit, as it breaks down at times, and I feel like he's not that consistently sharp on the intermediate outs that are the crucial passes in the NFL, but he's a superb prospect. His size will always be an issue until it isn't (that is, people will always wonder about it), and there's little he can do there, but he's a very, very good prospect who in many years would be the clearcut number 1 QB prospect.
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Old 02-07-2012, 05:41 PM    (permalink
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Toonster's back. Tell a friend.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DraftSavant View Post
2006: 1-11
2007: 4-8 (Harbaugh's first year)
2008: 5-7
2009: 8-5 (Luck's first year starting)
2010: 12-1
2011: 11-2

-_____-
I dunno. Doesn't really contradict his point that they were just mediocre before Luck got there, especially when you consider that Harbaugh's recruits where just starting to mature that year and Gerhart went all apeshit on errybody. I'm not trying to take away from Luck, I think he's the best prospect since Eli, a guy who he reminds me of, like a lot, but he wasn't exactly Jay Cutler playing with Bennett, Williams and a bunch of horrible players on a terrible Vanderbilt team against a strong SEC.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.

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Old 02-07-2012, 06:33 PM    (permalink
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ON WHAT PLANET IS 1-11, 4-8, AND 5-7 IS MEDIOCRE?! dsfasdf

Baylor's Record By Year
2006: 3-4
2007: 3-9
2008: 4-8 (Art Briles' first year/RG3's freshman season)
2009: 4-8
2010: 7-6
2011: 10-3
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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1-11 is absolutely terrible, but 5-7 is mediocre. Again I'm not disagreeing that what Luck did transforming his school is no less impressive than what Griffin did for his, but once Luck had the team turned around he has had some talent to work with. I think he's a great prospect. One who has joined Eli, Cutler and Bradford as guys I was just certain would become top ten caliber QBs in the NFL, but he wasn't doing it alone.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 02-07-2012, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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Honestly, I don't see Luck as the GREATEST PROSPECT SCOUTED in the past 20 years, like quite a few draft analysts and prospects have claimed.

I think he's worthy of the number 1 pick, but I think Stafford was a better prospect coming out than Andrew Luck and he didn't recieve that much hype.

Griffen is smart, athletic, and more accurate and throws a much better deep ball than Luck. ONly difference is Griffen didn't play in a pro offense.

It's actually a toss up and I think Indy will have more thinking to do with making this decision than some think.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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The next Matt Ryan or a guy who can revolutionize the position like Newton is. RG3 is gonna be a much better player than Luck if he can stay healthy.

There is nothing that Luck can do that RG3 can't do better. Only thing Luck has going for him is his pro system experience which to be honest isn't even that much of an advantage because a lot of teams are running the spread in the NFL now a days.

Griffin has every physical advantage over him as well.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:11 PM    (permalink
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[quote=papageorgio;2852939]The next Matt Ryan or a guy who can revolutionize the position like Newton is. RG3 is gonna be a much better player than Luck if he can stay healthy.

There is nothing that Luck can do that RG3 can't do better. Only thing Luck has going for him is his pro system experience which to be honest isn't even that much of an advantage because a lot of teams are running the spread in the NFL now a days.

Griffin has every physical advantage over him as well.[/QUOTE]

Except Height and weight. But I agree. Griffen is a very smart and educated player and human being.
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Old 02-07-2012, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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[quote=bucfan12;2852945]
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The next Matt Ryan or a guy who can revolutionize the position like Newton is. RG3 is gonna be a much better player than Luck if he can stay healthy.

There is nothing that Luck can do that RG3 can't do better. Only thing Luck has going for him is his pro system experience which to be honest isn't even that much of an advantage because a lot of teams are running the spread in the NFL now a days.

Griffin has every physical advantage over him as well.[/QUOTE]

Except Height and weight. But I agree. Griffen is a very smart and educated player and human being.
I meant speed and arm strength. Luck reminds me too much of other captain check down QB's who are game managers. Griffin has the arm strength to sling it down field something I don't think Luck can do.
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Old 02-07-2012, 08:53 PM    (permalink
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It's Luck without a doubt. While RG3 might have a slightly higher ceiling as a prospect, Luck has a much higher floor. Griffin is faster and has a better arm/deep ball, other than that I would Luck the advantage in every other category or at minimum is equal.

If you're looking at Lucks physical attributes to judge him as a prospect, then you are looking at the wrong stuff.


Also Luck's offense is being down played like it doesn't matter at all and that's almost criminal to me.
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Old 02-07-2012, 09:06 PM    (permalink
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ON WHAT PLANET IS 1-11, 4-8, AND 5-7 IS MEDIOCRE?! dsfasdf

Baylor's Record By Year
2006: 3-4
2007: 3-9
2008: 4-8 (Art Briles' first year/RG3's freshman season)
2009: 4-8
2010: 7-6
2011: 10-3
2009 no improvement record wise. Kendal Wright is still their and RGIII is out for the season with a torn ACL(I think he played like 3-4 games that season). RGIII comes back and look more improvement.
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Old 02-07-2012, 11:38 PM    (permalink
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I think Andrew Luck's Arm Strength is being under rated in this thread. He has a stronger arm than most people give him credit for.

I love RG3 and want my Browns to Draft him badly, but Luck wpuld be my pick at #1 overall.
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:33 AM    (permalink
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The next Matt Ryan or a guy who can revolutionize the position like Newton is. RG3 is gonna be a much better player than Luck if he can stay healthy.

There is nothing that Luck can do that RG3 can't do better. Only thing Luck has going for him is his pro system experience which to be honest isn't even that much of an advantage because a lot of teams are running the spread in the NFL now a days.

Griffin has every physical advantage over him as well.
Really?!

Matt Ryan is Andrew Luck's floor.

RG3, even with the most positive projection possible, doesn't have a ceiling that's remotely close to Cam Newton's.

And there is something Luck can do better than RG3 - navigate tight spaces and muddied pockets with ease. THAT'S WHAT MAKES HIM SPECIAL. MOST ARMCHAIR SCOUTS ON THE INTERNET ARE TOO DUMB WHEN IT COMES TO QUARTERBACKS TO EXPRESS THIS TRAIT, SO THEY WIND UP DOING NARRATIVE SCOUTING WITH LUCK, WHICH I CAN'T STAND.

RG3, on the other hand, tends to get really frenetic and jumpy in compressed spaces. It's a concern for me, but overall, I like him a lot as a prospect.
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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Really?!

Matt Ryan is Andrew Luck's floor.

RG3, even with the most positive projection possible, doesn't have a ceiling that's remotely close to Cam Newton's.

And there is something Luck can do better than RG3 - navigate tight spaces and muddied pockets with ease. THAT'S WHAT MAKES HIM SPECIAL. MOST ARMCHAIR SCOUTS ON THE INTERNET ARE TOO DUMB WHEN IT COMES TO QUARTERBACKS TO EXPRESS THIS TRAIT, SO THEY WIND UP DOING NARRATIVE SCOUTING WITH LUCK, WHICH I CAN'T STAND.

RG3, on the other hand, tends to get really frenetic and jumpy in compressed spaces. It's a concern for me, but overall, I like him a lot as a prospect.
Don't get me wrong, I love Luck, but saying something like this is you pretty much saying there is 0% chance he busts. I actually think he will be a star, but to say his floor is Matt Ryan is pretty ridiculous.
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:41 AM    (permalink
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I think Andrew Luck's Arm Strength is being under rated in this thread. He has a stronger arm than most people give him credit for.

I love RG3 and want my Browns to Draft him badly, but Luck wpuld be my pick at #1 overall.
Big time about Luck's arm. For some reason he never really let it rip on a regular basis at Stanford, but sometimes you would see glimpses.
IMO his arm is STRONG, not merely adequate or minimum NFL standard.

I admit my ignorance about scouting, I have more opinions and comparative analysis than hard facts, Draftsavant.

So do you mind explaining what you mean by 'narrative scouting' and its alternative??
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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Don't get me wrong, I love Luck, but saying something like this is you pretty much saying there is 0% chance he busts. I actually think he will be a star, but to say his floor is Matt Ryan is pretty ridiculous.

Why??

I assume you're a Falcons fan, but how good do you think Matt Ryan is?? So far Ryan appears to be a QB who struggles to elevate his game against top flight opponents in pivotal games. I see someone who's a decent to good NFL QB, but I don't know if he'll ever be elite. It's still too early to say though.
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Old 02-08-2012, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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This thread is awesome. And it's even more awesome because it happens every single year. It doesn't matter if it's Vince Young, Pat White, Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, RGIII, etc, someone is always on the verge of ZOMGZ, REVOLUTIONIZING THE QB POSITION!! OPTION IN THE NFL! AHHHHH!

What they fail to realize is that while he isn't going to revolutionize the position, Andrew Luck has everything you could want in a player of that position. He's got the arm, the pedigree, the footwork, the instincts, the accuracy, the production...It's all there.

Don't mistake my frustration with a genuine dislike of RGIII. In fact, I think he's a much better QB prospect then Newton was last year. He's smart, mobile, and accurate. But simply put, he isn't Andrew Luck (Not that I think Luck is worth 6 first round picks or something ridiculous, but he is going to grade out as the best QB prospect I've scouted, and that's since 2005).
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Why??

I assume you're a Falcons fan, but how good do you think Matt Ryan is?? So far Ryan appears to be a QB who struggles to elevate his game against top flight opponents in pivotal games. I see someone who's a decent to good NFL QB, but I don't know if he'll ever be elite. It's still too early to say though.
Right now I'd say Matt Ryan is a pretty good QB who has struggled to get over the hump in the playoffs. He's had a pretty successful start to his NFL career. I just don't like assuming that a player can't bust. I'm not saying Luck will be one of the guys who does bust, but to assume at worst he's a guy who puts up 4000+ yards and 25+ TDs in a year kinda guy is a little ridiculous.
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:01 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Big time about Luck's arm. For some reason he never really let it rip on a regular basis at Stanford, but sometimes you would see glimpses.
IMO his arm is STRONG, not merely adequate or minimum NFL standard.

I admit my ignorance about scouting, I have more opinions and comparative analysis than hard facts, Draftsavant.

So do you mind explaining what you mean by 'narrative scouting' and its alternative??
I wasn't trying to attack you or anyone else in this thread, or puff my chest out and pretend I know so much about scouting.

To (over)simplify it (I'm stealing this from Greg Cosell): you want to look for measurable traits that are discernible on tape...not necessarily results. College football is such a different game than the NFL, that you don't need to look at results and work backwards.

For example (and I'm not trying to create a strawman, I'm talking in a broad sense), when people talk about Andrew Luck, the first things people always bring up are characteristics: "smart, pedigree, accurate, etc" which isn't necessarily narrative scouting, but it's very broad, vague, and doesn't give us much of an opinion. And then a lot of the discussion devolves into arguments about his surrounding cast, his offensive line, Jim Harbaugh, etc - none of this is particularly relevant, especially when comparing QB prospects to each other. It happens with every QB prospect, we're doing it (myself included) with RG3 in this thread.

It's become fairly apparent that systems, surrounding cast, etc. makes little to no difference. You have to isolate the player on tape and look for specific and identifiable attributes that NFL quarterbacks have. "Accuracy" by itself doesn't mean anything (yet, it's still a measurable trait ON TAPE and not by looking at numbers/box scores): what's his ball location like? Does he gives his guys the opportunity to get YAC? Is he an anticipation or power thrower? Does he show the ability to play with anticipation at all, or is he a "see it/throw it" QB who must have a clearly defined read before pulling the trigger? Is he doing mostly progression or coverage reading? How willing/able is he to make stick throws into tight windows? What percentage of big plays are happening within or outside structure (this is huge, because improvisation isn't something that you can project or count on from week to week)?

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Old 02-08-2012, 11:04 AM    (permalink
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This thread is awesome. And it's even more awesome because it happens every single year. It doesn't matter if it's Vince Young, Pat White, Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, RGIII, etc, someone is always on the verge of ZOMGZ, REVOLUTIONIZING THE QB POSITION!! OPTION IN THE NFL! AHHHHH!

What they fail to realize is that while he isn't going to revolutionize the position, Andrew Luck has everything you could want in a player of that position. He's got the arm, the pedigree, the footwork, the instincts, the accuracy, the production...It's all there.

Don't mistake my frustration with a genuine dislike of RGIII. In fact, I think he's a much better QB prospect then Newton was last year. He's smart, mobile, and accurate. But simply put, he isn't Andrew Luck (Not that I think Luck is worth 6 first round picks or something ridiculous, but he is going to grade out as the best QB prospect I've scouted, and that's since 2005).
I love them both. Andrew Luck is my top QB prospect since I've paid attention to the NFL and the draft (2004). RGIII is probably in my top three, I like him more than I did Cam Newton, who I wasn't very high on (obviously Newton proved me wrong). RGIII is the fastest QB since early Vick, and I would love to watch a guy like that in the NFL again.
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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Really?!

Matt Ryan is Andrew Luck's floor.

RG3, even with the most positive projection possible, doesn't have a ceiling that's remotely close to Cam Newton's.

And there is something Luck can do better than RG3 - navigate tight spaces and muddied pockets with ease. THAT'S WHAT MAKES HIM SPECIAL. MOST ARMCHAIR SCOUTS ON THE INTERNET ARE TOO DUMB WHEN IT COMES TO QUARTERBACKS TO EXPRESS THIS TRAIT, SO THEY WIND UP DOING NARRATIVE SCOUTING WITH LUCK, WHICH I CAN'T STAND.

RG3, on the other hand, tends to get really frenetic and jumpy in compressed spaces. It's a concern for me, but overall, I like him a lot as a prospect.
I was going to talk about pocket awareness and Brady Quinn, and how he sucked at it, but then it just made me mad that Russell is a lazy sack and wasted his insane amount of talent. Was even decent in year 2. Should have been Ben Roethlisberger II.
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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Luck is a more advanced prospect in many respects than RGIII is right now. Not only is he physically gifted and mentally acute, he's really benefited from being coached by a former NFL QB for three years.

I assume Luck is going to transition to the pro game faster than Griffin because he's been schooled in NFL passing concepts and the technical aspects of 'next level' QB play that RGIII won't encounter until minicamps.

However, being a great NFL QB still IMO boils down to intangibles and qualitative aspects that can't be measured at the combine; that knack to produce in high pressure situations, whether it be against a withering pass rush or down by 10 points with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

Both prospects IMO have demonstrated the ability to make huge plays during crunch. After that it's all about keen decision making in the passing game and being able to deliver an accurate ball.

Put it this way, would rather have Peyton Manning with vertical speed and born with the clutch gene, or Steve Young 2.0??

If your team can't win big with either QB, I'd argue that your QB isn't the main problem.

EDIT: DS, I only asked because I didn't know what you meant. IMO you sound like someone who's understanding of the game and scouting goes deeper than a subscription to Pro Football Weekly. I just never heard of 'narrative scouting' before defined, although I guess it happens all the time on this board.
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by A Perfect Score View Post
This thread is awesome. And it's even more awesome because it happens every single year. It doesn't matter if it's Vince Young, Pat White, Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, RGIII, etc, someone is always on the verge of ZOMGZ, REVOLUTIONIZING THE QB POSITION!! OPTION IN THE NFL! AHHHHH!

What they fail to realize is that while he isn't going to revolutionize the position, Andrew Luck has everything you could want in a player of that position. He's got the arm, the pedigree, the footwork, the instincts, the accuracy, the production...It's all there.

Don't mistake my frustration with a genuine dislike of RGIII. In fact, I think he's a much better QB prospect then Newton was last year. He's smart, mobile, and accurate. But simply put, he isn't Andrew Luck (Not that I think Luck is worth 6 first round picks or something ridiculous, but he is going to grade out as the best QB prospect I've scouted, and that's since 2005).

I agree...this happens every year. The short memory spans of people really baffle me. Being able to run as a QB is a complimentary weapon, not the main focus. QBs need to be capable of playing within the pocket and have good pocket awareness. I would also argue to say that Luck is closer to Peyton Manning than Matt Ryan as a prospect.

Griffin is a good prospect - first round worthy but I would not draft him top 10. He cannot really be compared to Newton as they are completely different players physically. The best comparison would be Vick with better accuracy but less arm strength, less speed and less agility.

As the proliferation of spread offenses continues in the NFL and more tape is acquired by d-coordinators to figure out how to stop the spread QBs will have to adjust on the fly. Mastering an offense, calling audibles and dissecting defenses at the line are the types of skills that put Luck at an advantage over Griffin. People just get caught up in the "wow" factor rather than appreciate Luck's total mastery of an offense.
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Old 02-08-2012, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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I wouldnt be surprised if Andrew Luck has some of the best reports after interviews with teams of anyone. Between his former coach and his dad, you know he is going to be extremely savvy in those situations. From the neck up, the kid is 110% of what you'd want in a dream prospect at QB.

His pocket awareness is just sick for a college kid. I was impressed with Dalton's this year and thought it was a big reason he had as much success as he did. If Luck's translates to the NFL at all, he will be doing crazy things in Indy
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