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Old 04-12-2012, 01:12 AM    (permalink
onejayhawk
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Default Weeden in 1st Round?

For what it may be worth, TSN has him going 22 to the Browns.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nfl/stor...&sct=hp_t12_a9

I have been saying since the Senior Bowl that Weeden would go top 50. I am now inclined to think that is a round late: Cleveland at #22 or some other team trading back or up to the #18-#21 range. I would not put it past the Eagles to take him at #15.

Seriously, figuring on his value from 2012-2015, where does he rank? If Tannehill is low 20s, Weeden has to be in the teens. Since he plays THE premium position, that is enough.

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Old 04-12-2012, 01:39 AM    (permalink
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I'd much rather spend a top ten pick on Tannehill than a second rounder on Weeden. *shrug*
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:51 AM    (permalink
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Is Weeden that good???
What pro does he remind people of?? I see a guy who maybe is Schaub level if he ever develops.
Doesn't excite me to be honest.
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Old 04-12-2012, 01:59 AM    (permalink
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Honestly I don't think I'd touch him till the 3rd round.
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:08 AM    (permalink
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I honestly just don't see any QB other than the top 3 going in the 1st, Weeden, Cousins and Osweiler all have a chance to got in the 2nd/3rd.

Here's my best fits for the QB's after Luck, RG3, and Tannehill

Weeden- Chiefs
Cousins- Browns
Osweiler- Broncos
Foles- Seattle
Wilson- Eagles
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:11 AM    (permalink
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I personally like Weeden more than most and I would take him in the 3rd maybe if I needed a QB and wanted someone who could step in soon, but round 1 is a joke. His age is a major handicap that you can't look past. I know teams are QB needy but he isn't worth a 1st rounder, especially a pick in the teens.

I completely disagree with this myth that if he was younger that he would be an instant top 10 pick. Good size and a good arm but I don't see anything special about him or his game. His production is good but that offense will do that. Maybe he would be a mid to late 1st rounder if he was younger. but I'm still not sure of that.

I also question the credibility of that mock. Alameda Ta'amu at 11 is early and some other pick just don't seem right.
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:16 AM    (permalink
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I'm not sure I agree with the concerns everyone has for Weeden and his age. While it is something to consider that he won't be around as long, when it comes to quarterbacks you generally figure out what they are made of by their 3rd or 4th season. Alex Smith is really a late bloomer to start being productive in his 6th year. So if Weeden has what it takes, he could be a solid starter by the time he is 31 or 32 and then have 4-6 solid years. An 8 year career isn't bad. There are a lot of 22 year old QB's that never see 30 in this league.
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:42 AM    (permalink
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I'm not sure I agree with the concerns everyone has for Weeden and his age. While it is something to consider that he won't be around as long, when it comes to quarterbacks you generally figure out what they are made of by their 3rd or 4th season. Alex Smith is really a late bloomer to start being productive in his 6th year. So if Weeden has what it takes, he could be a solid starter by the time he is 31 or 32 and then have 4-6 solid years. An 8 year career isn't bad. There are a lot of 22 year old QB's that never see 30 in this league.
4-6 years isn't a big window to win a super bowl even if he pans out. If Roethlisberger or Rivers followed that same 8 year career plan then they would both be retiring now instead of making their teams contenders for the next 5-6 years. 8 years is a short time to have a real franchise QB, especially when only 4-6 of those years are actually usable.
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:52 AM    (permalink
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Just awful...
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Old 04-12-2012, 03:36 AM    (permalink
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4-6 years isn't a big window to win a super bowl even if he pans out. If Roethlisberger or Rivers followed that same 8 year career plan then they would both be retiring now instead of making their teams contenders for the next 5-6 years. 8 years is a short time to have a real franchise QB, especially when only 4-6 of those years are actually usable.
Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.
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Old 04-12-2012, 04:37 AM    (permalink
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If you think Weeden can step in and start from day one - then why not - he still has a decent length career ahead of him.

However, if you think he needs work (which he does for me), then you are looking at a 30 year old kid making his first start. Matt Moore in Miami is a better option because he already has starting experience. But in terms of a developmental option I would look to a kid like Ryan Lindley ahead of Weeden.
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Old 04-12-2012, 06:35 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.
Weeden's arm has been through the wear and tear of baseball where he was injury prone. Shoulder injuries caused him to not be able to continue pitching i.e. no, he wouldn't have been able to go until he was 40 in that league... so yea, I'm a bit concerned about his arm and his ability to stay healthy.

Also, I'm not so sure a young Weeden without injury history would be in my 1st round anyway.

End of the day, you can't waist time and resources on a guy who you KNOW has a 6 year career at best in this league. That is IF he pans out immediately and starts from day one without a single injury in his career, the reality is that you may in fact only get 3-4 seasons without injury and the likelihood of injury could make it 2-3 years.

If I were a GM I just could not justify taking him anywhere near the first round and the Raiders aren't around to do it.

I'd be willing to take him in the fourth if I was the Seahawks, Dolphins, Chiefs etc. to push my incumbent starter for the job and possibly provide a solid back up.
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Old 04-12-2012, 06:48 AM    (permalink
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Weeden's arm has been through the wear and tear of baseball where he was injury prone. Shoulder injuries caused him to not be able to continue pitching i.e. no, he wouldn't have been able to go until he was 40 in that league... so yea, I'm a bit concerned about his arm and his ability to stay healthy.

Also, I'm not so sure a young Weeden without injury history would be in my 1st round anyway.

End of the day, you can't waist time and resources on a guy who you KNOW has a 6 year career at best in this league. That is IF he pans out immediately and starts from day one without a single injury in his career, the reality is that you may in fact only get 3-4 seasons without injury and the likelihood of injury in his could make it 2-3 years.

If I were a GM I just could not justify taking him anywhere near the first round and the Raiders aren't around to do it.

I'd be willing to take him in the fourth if I was the Seahawks, Dolphins, Chiefs etc. to push my incumbent starter for the job and possibly provide a solid back up.
Nice write up. I agree that he shouldn't be touched in the first. If a team took him in the third I wouldn't knock them for it but 4th round seems more logical. If Weeden was younger I would argue that he would be worth a late first round pick.

To be fair to the Raiders though I think McKenzie is a complete 180 from the old regime so even the Raiders would no longer be that stupid.
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Old 04-12-2012, 08:09 AM    (permalink
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Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.
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Old 04-12-2012, 08:23 AM    (permalink
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im not worried about the age, i am worried about the million or so baseball's he threw in the minor leagues. They say he can't throw a baseball painfree, even still. this is not a 28 year old with no mileage.
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Old 04-12-2012, 09:33 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't draft Weeden at all.

Every male's physical peak is in their late 20s (maybe 30). Weeden basically played college football at his physical peak. This makes him hard to evaluate, because other guys will continue to develop.

When most guys hit their prime in their early 30s, it's because their physical talent has started to decline (but not that much) but their mental side of their game has had 8 years or so to develop.

Weeden is basically a 22 year old QB in a 30 year old body. And that's why any team that drafts him before the mid rounds is run by idiots.

I got to see this already; his name was Chris Weinke. It was a miserable failure.
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Old 04-12-2012, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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I wouldn't draft Weeden at all.

Every male's physical peak is in their late 20s (maybe 30). Weeden basically played college football at his physical peak. This makes him hard to evaluate, because other guys will continue to develop.

When most guys hit their prime in their early 30s, it's because their physical talent has started to decline (but not that much) but their mental side of their game has had 8 years or so to develop.

Weeden is basically a 22 year old QB in a 30 year old body. And that's why any team that drafts him before the mid rounds is run by idiots.

I got to see this already; his name was Chris Weinke. It was a miserable failure.
It's an all downhill career for Weeden here. Good point about how his arm may already have too much mileage on it. Watch the Rams take him in the 4th after all the draft pundits discuss it for hrs. why he "dropped" then realizing "Oh wait! They took Blackmon in the 1st! They want to pair them up again!" Genius.

Genius moves like that are why Stephen Jackson is the most frustrated RB star-wannabee in the League. He could've been the Next Bo Jackson but Martz in his genius mode couldn't find a place for him in Martzball so he spends most of his rookie yr on the bench Every yr. they say It's the Rams yr. to make that move! but the Sheep stay dead in the water.

Weeden won't go undrafted but a late rd. selection might be a charity pick.

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Old 04-12-2012, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Yeah, but QBs typically retire at 34-35 years old only because they've been hit so many times that they don't want to risk screwing up their body permanently, look at Peyton Manning, he has maybe 2 more seasons tops... I guess my point is, Weeden hasn't been through the same wear and tear, yes, he is older, but his arm should be fresh well into his late 40s if he takes good care of it, alot of good pitchers have lasted in baseball into their late 40s and in some cases early 50s with Randy Johnson, etc "The Big Unit" so I see no reason why Weeden should be knocked back due to his age. Yes, it's a red flag initially, but after you think about it, it's really not that huge of a deal to me.
So much wrong with this... Jamie Moyer just became the oldest pitcher to start/win a game, and he is only 49, Randy retired before 50, anything about any pitchers in their 50s is wrong. Saying his arm will be fresh well into his late 40s is not only a little presumptuous, but you are completely looking past the rest of his body. QBs don't just retire because their arms get tired, you even said it earlier in the post. His body is going to take a beating, just like any other QB, if he ever gets a true starting opportunity.

And lets not look past the fact that you are comparing baseball and football...
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Old 04-12-2012, 10:45 AM    (permalink
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Weeden wouldn't be a first round pick if he were 22 years old. I wouldn't touch him in the second round either.
Agreed. First round is absolutely ridiculous, I guess I could see late second for a really QB hungry team. I'd much rather roll the dice on Cousins or hell, even Osweiler. I have no idea where this myth comes from that Weeden is a very talented QB being knocked only for his age. That's so far from the truth.

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im not worried about the age, i am worried about the million or so baseball's he threw in the minor leagues. They say he can't throw a baseball painfree, even still. this is not a 28 year old with no mileage.
That becomes more problematic when you look at his throwing motion and realize he throws the football like you'd throw a baseball. He just kind of pushes it, the mechanics are just...off in his throwing motion.
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Old 04-12-2012, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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Agreed. First round is absolutely ridiculous, I guess I could see late second for a really QB hungry team. I'd much rather roll the dice on Cousins or hell, even Osweiler. I have no idea where this myth comes from that Weeden is a very talented QB being knocked only for his age. That's so far from the truth.



That becomes more problematic when you look at his throwing motion and realize he throws the football like you'd throw a baseball. He just kind of pushes it, the mechanics are just...off in his throwing motion.
APS, have you played baseball? Because if you're a pitcher (especially good enough to be drafted) you don't "push it" when you throw. His pushing motion when throwing a football is probably because throwing like a baseball (usually more over the top) causes him pain. That in itself would keep him off my board. He can't throw a football like he's supposed to because its hurts. But his pushing motion is not similar to how baseball pitchers should be throwing, its very different.
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Old 04-12-2012, 11:06 AM    (permalink
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Personally, Heckert has done a good job of building "trust-bridges" to "faith-town." I'm not questioning a lot of his decisions at this point because we are arguably in the most solid two year stretch of draft picks and modest FA acquisitions I've seen as a Browns fan.

That being said, if he decides to draft Weeden in the first two rounds, all construction will cease and be razed to the ground.

Penny Arcade anyone?

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Old 04-12-2012, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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Trent Green made his first NFL roster at the age of 27 as a backup for the Redskins.

He became a fulltime starter at age 31 for the Chiefs and had a five year run in KC that would have been HOF worthy if he could have done it for 12 years.

If Weeden has Trent Green upside I think he's worth a 2nd rounder.

Regardless of age, I don't think there are 5 QBs in this draft who are better than he is right now.
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Old 04-12-2012, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't draft him at much more than a career backup. So 3rd or later. If he were 22, never played baseball, snd managed to be as good as he is now, he's going after RG3. But he's not.
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Old 04-12-2012, 12:34 PM    (permalink
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i think that's an indictment of the draft class, rather than an endorsement of weeden.

further, HOF worthy? with his two pro bowls and zero all pros? um.
Just looking at his production in KC for five years. Extrapolate that out to 12 years and assuming he could have led KC to wins in the postseason....hyperbole just to make the point that an 'older' starter can still have high value.
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Old 04-12-2012, 02:09 PM    (permalink
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I just dont see the big deal with his age. QB's start hitting thier prime between 28-32. Eli just really started hitting his prime and he is 31.

I still wouldnt touch him in the 1st though, but I would def take him in the 2nd, give him a strong run game, and a legit defense, and lets go out there and compete. Say he really hits his stride around 30 or 31. And plays at a top 10 level up until he is 37. You just got 6 or 7 years of top 10 QB play. Im sure many teams would love to have that.

Disclaimer: No I am not saying Weeden is a top 10 QB, but the potential is there. If Andy Dalton was a pro-bowler I dont see how Weeden couldnt be a better than average QB in a year or 2.
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