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Old 04-14-2012, 02:18 PM    (permalink
Mufasa
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Originally Posted by bornnraisedwhodat View Post
I just dont see the big deal with his age. QB's start hitting thier prime between 28-32. Eli just really started hitting his prime and he is 31.
Yeah, and it took 8 years of NFL experience to get him there. That's the problem. Age doesn't equal NFL experience. If Weeden takes 8 years to hit his stride his career will be over.
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Old 04-14-2012, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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He's not a troll, but I love him, kinda like a troll.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-14-2012, 02:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
Exactly. And in a strange twist his age is probably an advantage. If he were 23 people would just focus on the fact he isnt very good.
Very good point; Weeden's age has become the focal point of any evaluations regarding his NFL prospects and the concerns about how old he is have overshadowed his lack of experience in a pro-style offense. People just assume that because Weeden is old he can operate an NFL passing attack. This could lead to Weeden being overdrafted, similar to other overaged QBs from pass-happy systems such as Kevin Kolb and John Beck who went in the second round.
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Old 04-14-2012, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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I am clearly in the minority and like Weeden a lot more than most on this board.

Here's a list of positives and negatives I see from two prospects (different years). One is Weeden and I won't say who the other one is

Player A:

Good, not great arm but can make all the NFL throws
Put up huge numbers in college
Almost prototypical size
Good at avoiding pressure
Leader, great intangibles
Very accurate
Good touch
Keeps his eyes down the field even on the move
Good understanding of coverages

Let's the ball get away from him on some intermediate throws
Trusts his arm too much
Isn't a threat to run
Injury concerns
Awkward throwing motion
Played in a spread system which inflates his numbers
Upside???

Player B:

Arm strength is acceptible but certainly not great
Good size but could add some muscle
Very good accuracy
Put up huge stats in college
Very good decision maker
Anticipates WRs making their cuts
Leader, great intangibles
Excellent touch, especially on short to intermediate routes
Nice release point

Won't be able to make all the throws against NFL coverages
Major injury concerns
Static in the pocket
No threat to run
May not fit all systems
Played in a spread system which inflates his numbers
Upside???


Now this is just based on what I have seen and read, and I am not going to even try and say I have any more skill at looking at prospects than anyone else, but I think Weeden is a first round QB if he is 22. Hell if Ponder can go at 12 why can't Weeden go at the end of the first even if he is 28????
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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Weeden > Luck

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Old 04-14-2012, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
especially if you ignore the arm injuries. but i'm sure those are irrelevant.
No. Injuries a QB's throwing arm are very relevant. However, they appear to have less impact on throwing a football at 40-50 MPH than a baseball at 90 mph, and we have had a fairly long period to track the situation. It is cause for caution more than a red flag.

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so you have no thoughts of your own and are solely relying on the fact that other people think he's good. cool.


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Old 04-14-2012, 03:22 PM    (permalink
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I have been saying since the Senior Bowl that Weeden would go top 50. I am now inclined to think that is a round late: Cleveland at #22 or some other team trading back or up to the #18-#21 range. I would not put it past the Eagles to take him at #15.
Can't dismiss later-rd. QBs who find their way into starting NFL jobs, like Andy Dalton in the 3rd rd., 2nd overall pick a yr. ago in Cincy who got that starting gig as a rookie. He was the beneficiary of their moronic owner's vendetta vs. Carson Palmer, true, but it was big plus for the Bengals. And they got him cheaper than a 1str rounder too.

Is Weeden the next one? Even with all that mileage on his 28-yr-old arm he's better than Colt McCoy (who's younger by 4-5 yrs) in Cleveland
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:27 PM    (permalink
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why can't Weeden go at the end of the first even if he is 28????
Because by the time he learns an NFL offense competently enough to run one, he'll be physically declining. It's that simple. He has zero upside. His development is over. Kellen Moore, whom I don't even think should be drafted, has more upside than Weeden.

This is Chris Weinke again. He flashed in college because he was a man among boys. It's also why I am 100% against the NCAA rule that lets guys like Weeden play ball after they are in their mid 20s (I'd put the cutoff at 24, maybe 23).

I also believe you guys are over-evaluating Christian Ponder. Ponder's best weapon is a RB playing WR that has excessively paralyzing headaches. His primary RB can't even catch or block, and has a fumbling problem. His OL is below average.

He didn't play out of a spread at FSU, either.
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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Even with all that mileage on his 28-yr-old arm he's better than Colt McCoy (who's younger by 4-5 yrs) in Cleveland
I couldn't disagree more. Colt McCoy has more upside and NFL experience than Weeden.

Besides moderately better arm strength, 3 inches, and 5 pounds, what does Weeden have on McCoy?
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:36 PM    (permalink
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Can't dismiss later-rd. QBs who find their way into starting NFL jobs, like Andy Dalton in the 3rd rd., 2nd overall pick a yr. ago in Cincy who got that starting gig as a rookie. He was the beneficiary of their moronic owner's vendetta vs. Carson Palmer, true, but it was big plus for the Bengals. And they got him cheaper than a 1str rounder too.

Is Weeden the next one? Even with all that mileage on his 28-yr-old arm he's better than Colt McCoy (who's younger by 4-5 yrs) in Cleveland
Andy was a 2nd round pick. Also, Carson Palmer was the one with a moronic vendetta. Mike Brown would GLADLY have let Carson play here if he wanted.

I guess you tried to type something factual and coherent, but you failed.
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i love this game. i mean, aside from the utter irrelevancy.
I fail to see how it is irrelevant.

Numerous people within this thread have gone as far as to say that Weeden "isn't very good", is "garbage", "career backup" etc. And that's before you even look at some of the stuff about his age.

I compared him to a former first overall draft pick, who admittedly was a much better prospect than Weeden, but it's not like I was comparing Dan Marino and Kellen Moore.

I have already stated I like Weeden more than most obviously. I don't think much of his age either way.

But...you obviously have the two arguments

1. He's older, thus more mature blah, blah, more pro ready blah, blah etc etc
2. He's older than Jesus and will probably be dead by the time his rookie deal is up

If you draft a QB in the first round, or even the second round you do so with the expectation he will play for how many years? 10? 15?

What if Weeden plays until he's 39, that isn't unheard of or even out of the ordinary. That gives a team 11 years. What GM, head coach, team owner etc is thinking more than 11 years in advance at this point in terms of player acquisition and roster turnover??? Probably none if they have any sense.

Obviously the guy isn't on the same level as Luck or Griffin III, however what is the difference between him and Tannehill as prospects? Tannehill has a ton of upside but are you going to put all your eggs in his basket based on upside? That's a huge risk that more times than not gets guys fired.

Then the questions comes as to where do you take Weeden, or any QB you don't think highly enough of to take in the first round. If you don't think he can be your franchise QB then what are you drafting? A back up? A fringe starter? A bridge guy until you get that elusive franchise QB?

Too many teams draft guys like Colt McCoy, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick, John Beck, Chad Henne etc. If you don't think highly enough of a guy to take him in the first then he probably shouldn't be a starting QB. Andy Dalton is the exception to this rule. Look at the success rate of second and third round QBs...not great.

I am of the opinion that if you are drafting a QB you are either drafting a guy you are giving the keys of your franchise to, or you are drafting the guy who will hold the clipboard. I am not of the opinion that backups should be drafted when starters at other positions are available.

Which brings the question of QB value. Can Weeden take a team to the superbowl? That's the end goal isn't it? If Weeden can make a team win then he can be a franchise QB and therefore IMO is worth a first round pick. If you think he can't then he shouldn't be and should be drafted as a back up player.
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Old 04-14-2012, 03:47 PM    (permalink
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Because by the time he learns an NFL offense competently enough to run one, he'll be physically declining. It's that simple. He has zero upside. His development is over. Kellen Moore, whom I don't even think should be drafted, has more upside than Weeden.
More and more NFL offenses have spread concepts in them and are closer to the college game than ever before. That's why Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton etc can come in from day one and be successful. It isn't the same as it used to be where QBs would come in a learn and only hit their stride in 4 years. Offenses are tailored to QBs now. It's a passing league.

Look at Blaine Gabbert for example. Awful QB last year and people are calling for him to be benched already. This was a rookie QB!!! But you aren't given the luxury of sitting for multiple years to hone your craft. Pretty much every QB is thrown in at the deep end nowadays.

It isn't the case where Weeden won't see the field until he's in his thirties. If he's drafted to be a starting QB you can all but guarantee he will see the field before he turns 29
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Old 04-14-2012, 04:20 PM    (permalink
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I am of the opinion that if you are drafting a QB you are either drafting a guy you are giving the keys of your franchise to, or you are drafting the guy who will hold the clipboard. I am not of the opinion that backups should be drafted when starters at other positions are available.

Which brings the question of QB value. Can Weeden take a team to the superbowl? That's the end goal isn't it? If Weeden can make a team win then he can be a franchise QB and therefore IMO is worth a first round pick. If you think he can't then he shouldn't be and should be drafted as a back up player.
Well said.

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yup, it's not like things like that deteriorate quickly as you age. i love non-responsive garbage like this. it's like, so totally clever, and stuff.


Feel better? It is a standard response to abusive comments, which lack content. I am surprised you are not more familiar.

Things do deteriorate with age, but the hits are more significant.

J

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Old 04-14-2012, 04:42 PM    (permalink
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yes, they're certainly more significant than a throwing arm injury and the wear and tear on that throwing arm. but let's ignore that and just keep putting up a spam emoticon, in case it's still actually distracting anyone from the fact that you haven't, once, in this thread explained anything weeden does well and have instead pawned it off on the rest of the internet to sort out for you.

why would i feel better? because the only thing you can actually respond with is an emoticon you don't actually understand? because, rather than actually trying to talk positively about weeden, you'd rather just repeatedly call my posts (and, probably the posts of anyone who disgarees with you) spam? why would that possibly make me feel better? do you have anything of your own to contribute?
Take out the spam, and what is left of this diatribe? Is there a question, which can be answered with facts?

Fact: He has all the physical tools needed to succeed in the NFL.
Fact: His college resume is very solid.
Fact: His Senior Bowl performance was outstanding
Fact: The biggest mark against him is his age
Fact: Brandon Weeden is widely regarded as the #4 QB prospect. In a compilation, that would be his position

I have yet to see bring anything to compare with this list of facts already under consideration. Leave the spam in the can, and focus on the subject rather than those posting comments.

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Old 04-14-2012, 05:12 PM    (permalink
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What physical tools does he have that would actually be anything more than mediocre for an NFL starter? The mark against him is how absolutely unspectacular everything about him is. If you're drafting Kyle Orton why would you want to spend a premium pick to draft him at 28 years old with serious wear and tear on his arm? Your referencing his senior bowl is the first thing you've mentioned that would lead anyone to believe he'll be a good QB.
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:19 PM    (permalink
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you don't use a 1st rounder on a guy who's going to be productive for like 7 years max
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:22 PM    (permalink
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Fact: He has all the physical tools needed to succeed in the NFL.
Fact: Those tools will be on the decline before he ever takes an NFL snap.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:35 PM    (permalink
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Think we have found this draft's version of the natural.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:44 PM    (permalink
onejayhawk
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Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
you don't use a 1st rounder on a guy who's going to be productive for like 7 years max
Every time you draft a RB in the 1st round, that is the expectation.

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Think we have found this draft's version of the natural.
Except he's 20 years younger than Redford.

Still, its a good point. What would a team pay for one great season? We know that Oakland paid two first round picks for a 33 year old QB, though we could count that as a 1st and a 2nd, since one was deferred.

J

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Old 04-14-2012, 05:45 PM    (permalink
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Every time you draft a RB in the 1st round, that is the expectation.
Runningbacks can contribute immediately and 1st round picks aren't spent on them anymore unless they can basically carry an offense.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:48 PM    (permalink
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Every time you draft a RB in the 1st round, that is the expectation.



Except he's 20 years younger than Redford.

J
what fear the elf said. Rookie running backs come in and contribute all the time. It's a whole different thing for QB's.

Plus, the expected shelf life for a first round QB isn't 7 years. It's so a guy will be the face and stability for your franchise for over a decade, not to be useful for 7 years, only being really good for about 4 of those.

and this is weeden's MAX. he's what, 5 years older than a college senior? That's ridiculous. He has to adjust to the NFL, learn a new system, get adapted to harder hits and a faster pace game...and has a shelf life 5 years less than the average senior QB. Come on now.

Plus, I don't think he's really all that good
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:54 PM    (permalink
vidae
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what fear the elf said. Rookie running backs come in and contribute all the time. It's a whole different thing for QB's.

Plus, the expected shelf life for a first round QB isn't 7 years. It's so a guy will be the face and stability for your franchise for over a decade, not to be useful for 7 years, only being really good for about 4 of those.

and this is weeden's MAX. he's what, 5 years older than a college senior? That's ridiculous. He has to adjust to the NFL, learn a new system, get adapted to harder hits and a faster pace game...and has a shelf life 5 years less than the average senior QB. Come on now.

Plus, I don't think he's really all that good
That is probably because he isn't. He had the most talented receiver in the nation to throw to. He's a solid prospect at 22 but an overrated one at 28. He'll still have to sit for at least a year in the pros so that is one year removed.

He just isn't worth it.
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Old 04-14-2012, 05:57 PM    (permalink
onejayhawk
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Originally Posted by fear the elf View Post
Runningbacks can contribute immediately and 1st round picks aren't spent on them anymore unless they can basically carry an offense.
How is that different from starting QBs?

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Originally Posted by scottyboy View Post
what fear the elf said. Rookie running backs come in and contribute all the time. It's a whole different thing for QB's.

Plus, the expected shelf life for a first round QB isn't 7 years. It's so a guy will be the face and stability for your franchise for over a decade, not to be useful for 7 years, only being really good for about 4 of those.

and this is weeden's MAX. he's what, 5 years older than a college senior? That's ridiculous. He has to adjust to the NFL, learn a new system, get adapted to harder hits and a faster pace game...and has a shelf life 5 years less than the average senior QB. Come on now.

Plus, I don't think he's really all that good
If you compiled the career numbers of all 1st round QBs, it might well be less than 7 years. I am confident that the average time with the drafting team is well under 7 years. Also there is no reason to think Weeden would be done in 7 years, purely from age.

However, teams would treat that as an issue for the next contract. If a QB looks to be a viable starter in the 3-7 year timeframe, then he is worth a 1st round pick.

As to his being starter material:

His age will likely keep him from going as early in the draft as his talents deserve. But there isn't a throw this guy can't make and he has the skill set and mental make-up to mature into a potential starter with some time.
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/...l&player=38638

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Old 04-14-2012, 05:58 PM    (permalink
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That is probably because he isn't. He had the most talented receiver in the nation to throw to. He's a solid prospect at 22 but an overrated one at 28. He'll still have to sit for at least a year in the pros so that is one year removed.

He just isn't worth it.
This. At 22, I could take him late first or maybe even early second. Absolutely no way he drops out of the first two days.

At 28, I'm going to be concerned in investing even a 4th rounder.
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Old 04-14-2012, 06:02 PM    (permalink
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ok, the track record for QB's is low because of busts, ala Jamarcus and such. and these guys got longer leashes because of potential (maybe not the walrus, but others). Weeden won't get that because he doesn't have that time to grow and improve. Teams draft QB's in the first to be their future franchise guy for over a decade. You miss with some and get busts, that's how the draft and league work.

I'm just not sure why you're kinda dismissing this age this j. I respect a lot of your opinions but you're way off here. Hits matter, but when you're younger, you heal faster. Age is such a crucial part. He's got like 3 years of a "prime" if that, whereas most QB's from 25-32 can be considered the prime for most (physical and mental). Weeden, at 28 will be a rookie. Have the adaptations to go through and when he's perhaps adjusted to the NFL, he's 30. Freaking 30. When he comes into his own. at age 33 or so, his body starts to wear down.

And yeah, he really isn't that good anyways
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