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Old 04-30-2012, 12:31 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fishspinners View Post
At first I was shocked at the Allen pick but after a minute I smiled cause we have been an offensive team for so long and it looks like we will still be! I was thrilled to see them get Hilton in the fourth and hope he can one day somehow replace future HOFer Reggie Wayne. Buckle up boys because we are going to be in some shootouts this year! Gonna stick to my 4-12 prediction for now and another top 5 pick next year which will most likely be the best defender available.
I am tired of shootouts. I want to hold opponents down and punch them in the face until they stop moving. That doesn't mean I don't want a good offense but I hope this thing is a two year plan and that we load up on defense significantly next year. I think the 2 TE plan could work very well but we passed on a lot of really good D talent to do it.
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Old 04-30-2012, 01:08 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by killxswitch View Post
To me that is a lazy answer. You could say that about any prospect that gets taken late. What you can't say about most of them though is that at one point they played well enough to be considered early-round players.

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Originally Posted by falloutboy14 View Post
There's a reason Bethea fell that far. Doesn't mean he's not worth taking.

I just borrowed one quote from the press conference. He actually went into detail regarding the DBs in this draft.

He actually admitted that there were guys that they wanted that went before our picks.

One guy in particular went "right before our pick." I'm guessing that was Asa Jackson who went 1 pick before Ballard. It's a guy I liked also.
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Old 04-30-2012, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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I was thinking the guy they missed out on was Casey Hayward. Though I thought it was Pagano that talked about that.
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Old 05-02-2012, 06:08 AM    (permalink
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Sorry guys. I’ve been away over the weekend otherwise I would have had this done ages ago.


2012 NFL Draft

1st Round – 1st Overall Pick

Andrew Luck
Quarterback
Stanford Cadinal (Redshirt Junior)

Need: I hope I don’t need to point out the reasons why Quarterback was the Colts biggest need going into the Draft. A+

Value: Luck will start Day One as probably the 2nd best Quarterback in the Division and has the potential to be the top guy in the Division by this time next year. He has the potential to be an Elite NFL Quarterback. A+

Overall: A+

2nd Round – 34th Overall Pick

Coby Fleener
Tight End
Stanford Cadinal (5th Year)

Need: Outside of Quarterback I had Tight End as the Colts biggest need. After Tamme left in Free Agency and Dallas Clark was cut/retired the team were left with Brody Eldridge (primarily a blocker). Bruce Arians loves his Tight Ends, as does Andrew Luck, making the need to go out and get one a major need. A

Value: I had Fleener rated as a 1st Round pick and when the Colts picked at 34 he was the fourth highest on my board (after OTs Cordy Glenn and Jonathan Martin as well as DE Courtney Upshaw). A

Overall: Tight End was a major need, Fleener was good value when he was drafted and provides Andrew Luck with not only a solid player at his favourite positional target (Tight End) but also provides him with someone he already has great chemistry with. Fleener should become a solid starter his year and could develop into one of the top Tight Ends in the NFL. A

3rd Round – 64th Overall Pick

Dwayne Allen
Tight End
Clemson Tigers (Redshirt Junior)

Need: Tight End was a major need going into the draft but I do question the need to take the 2nd TE. Bruce Arians likes to run a lot of two Tight End sets but I would have thought the 2nd TE would be more of a blocker than a pass catcher, something that Allen frankly isn’t. That being said he is a better blocker than a WR and a two TE set would open up some run possibilities while also being a dynamic passing attack. C

Value: I had Allen rated as a mid to late 2nd Round pick (in most drafts 64th Overall would be a 2nd Round pick) and when the Colts picked him he was the fifth highest on my board (after OT Bobbie Massie, RB Lamar Miller and CBs Josh Robinson and Brandon Boykin). B+

Overall: Tight End, especially this type of Tight End, was no longer a major need, giving the drafting of Coby Fleener, but I can’t argue that much over value where he was taken round about where he should have been. My biggest problem with the pick is that I thought Cornerback was a bigger need, there were two players of at least slightly better value at Corner and I was very high on Josh Robinson going into this draft. Allen is a potential starting Calibre NFL Tight End. He has some problems, especially in run blocking, but with solid play could become a featured weapon for the Colts over the next few years. B-

3rd Round – 92nd Overall Pick

T.Y. Hilton
Wide Receiver
FIU Golden Panthers (Senior)

Need: Going into the Draft Wide Receiver was a question mark need rather than a glaring one. The Colts are solid at Split End with Reggie Wayne and a Slot Receiver with Austin Collie. It could be argue that later round players could be brought in as a future prospect (for SE) and as backup (at SL). The only question mark was at Flanker where Donnie Avery is a new signing coming off major injuries. So WR wasn’t going to be massively needed, in my opinion. This is further shown by the fact that T.Y. Hilton probably won’t ever play outside in the NFL, limiting his ability to Slot Receiver, where there simply wasn’t a major need. His major saving grace is that he will bring significant upgrades in the Return game, especially in the now more valuable punt return game. C+

Value: This one can be tricky. I had Hilton rated as a low 4th Round, early 5th Round pick, so to draft him at the bottom of the third simply isn’t good value, especially as there were other players with good value on the board (Bobbie Massie, who had rated as a 2nd Round player, Omar Bolden at CB, and even if they wanted a Wide Receiver then the likes of Chris Givens, a true depth threat, would have been preferable). C-

Overall: I have to admit I don’t hate the pick. I quite liked Hilton as a prospect and if the team needed a Slot Receiver and they got him at the bottom of the fourth then I would really like the pick. He’s a hard working player with a strong character and provides home run potential on almost any play. But the Colts didn’t need him and they did reach on him. Hilton will probably never be a starter at the NFL level but has the physical tools, especially if he can add the muscle mass to go over the middle, to be an effective contributor. C

5th Round – 136th Overall Pick

Josh Chapman
Nose Tackle
Alabama Crimson Tide (5th Year)

Need: Because of the signing of Brandon McKinney and the other needs on the team Nose Tackle wasn’t a glaring need. But it was still a need. McKinney has been a career backup and Mookie will be a liability in the 2 Gap. B+

Value: I thought this was great value. I had McKinney rated as a 3rd Round pick so for the Colts to get him in the 5th Round provides the Colts with a starting calibre player in the 5th Round and a pick that is easily their best value of the draft. A+

Overall: The Colts bring in a position of at least some need, at a position of huge importance for the new defence and get great value for it. Aside from Luck this was probably the best Colts pick in the Draft. Chapman should develop into an NFL starting calibre NT. His lack of football intelligence and his injury may hinder that development but by his third year he should be a solid level starter for this team. A

5th Round – 170th Overall Pick - Compensatory Selection

Vick Ballard
Running Back
Mississippi State Bulldogs (Senior)

Need: Similar to Wide Receiver the Colts do have a question mark need instead of a major need and similarly to the Hilton pick Ballard in no way fills it. The Colts let Addai go and none of the Running Backs on the roster are particularly good on third down, either catching or blocking. So if the team brought in a back to fill that role then it would have filled a need. Bringing in another between the tackles slugger, despite having Carter and Evans on the roster, makes little sense. D

Value: Unlike the Hilton pick though I actually like the value here. I had Ballard rated as a mid 4th Round pick so to get him at the bottom of the fifth round provides pretty good value. The only downside to his value is that there were other picks, especially at CB (Dennard, Tandy, Wade etc) who would have fitted a big position of need and provided similar or greater value to Ballard. A

Overall: Running Back wasn’t a big need but Ballard did provide good value so I’m not going to call it a bad pick. He isn’t a starting calibre player. He isn’t ever going to be the feature back but should do well if utilised in a committee back system. B-

6th Round – 206th Overall Pick – Compensatory Selection

LaVon Brazill
Wide Receiver
Ohio Bobcats (Senior)

Need: Brazill is a short, light, speedy Slot Receiver who could help out in the return game. The problem is that is almost a carbon copy of the description that could be given for T.Y. Hilton. After drafting Hilton the Colts had zero need at Slot Receiver, even for depth. F

Value: I didn’t have Brazill being drafted. I didn’t rate him in my top 300 players so drafting him in the 6th round makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. F

Overall: Clearly the worst pick the Colts had in the Draft. They had no need at the position, with two Slot Receivers clearly ahead of him, and he provided no value (he easily could have been an UDFA). He will struggle to contribute offensively for the Colts while his value on Special Teams is limited to return duties (which the Colts also drafted T.Y. Hilton for). He could struggle to make the 53 man roster. F

7th Round – 208th Overall Pick

Justin Anderson
Offensive Tackle/Guard
Georgia Bulldogs (5th Year)

Need: Offensive Line depth, given the losses, is a sensible pick, especially this late in the draft. B+

Value: I didn’t have Anderson being drafted. E

Overall: Offensive Line depth was needed but Anderson was probably not going to get drafted so it is a bit of a reach. He struggled with injuries at Georgia and isn’t even close to being NFL ready but has interesting physical tools. I’d expect him to start next season on the Practice Squad and could be a bit of a project guy. D+

7th Round – 214th Overall Pick

Tim Fugger
Outside Linebacker
Vanderbilt Commodores (5th Year)

Need: Outside of Freeney and Mathis the Colts are pretty thin here. Transitioning to the 3-4 may be the making of Jerry Hughes but until he does it depth will still be an issue so this is a fairly decent need. B

Value: I had Fugger rated as a late 5th Round, early 6th Round pick so getting him in the 7th Round was good value. A

Overall: He provides depth at a position that the Colts could do with some depth and was great value. He will be a project at Outside Linebacker and, if he makes the team, will be primarily a special team player. A-

7th Round – 253rd Overall Pick

Chandler Harnish
Quarterback
Northern Illinois Huskies (5th Year)

Need: Backup Quarterback wasn’t a huge need this year. The QB Coach needs to focus all of his time, in my opinion, on developing Luck and so if he devotes some time to Harnish it could harm Luck but if he doesn’t devote that time then this pick is pointless. C-

Value: I had Harnish graded as a low 7th Round pick, possible Free Agent so it is about bang on the money in terms of value. B

Overall: It wasn’t a huge need and was probably about right in terms of value. I would have preferred a project at LB or DB rather than Quarterback. If Harnish can develop as he should do then he could become a decent backup quarterback and spot starter in the NFL . C+

2012 Overall Grade:

As a draft it will live and die by Andrew Luck. I, when looking at the Polian Draft Era, rated the 1998 Draft as an A-. Take the 1st Pick out of it and that drops to a C+ as the Colts got little help from the rest of the Draft, with the exception of Steve McKinney. But the 1st Pick was Peyton Manning. If Luck is great and everyone else is **** it will be a good draft and if Luck is bad and everyone is good then it will probably be a poor draft.

I have given the draft an overall grade of A-. Luck was a great pick. Fleener, Chapman and Fugger were great picks while Allen and Ballard weren’t bad. I didn’t like the selection of either Wide Receiver, or the late selections of Anderson and Harnish. Despite not liking the Hilton pick I still think he will be a good player for the Colts, while if you don’t get much out of the players draft after 200 then it isn’t great but you aren’t going to lose any sleep over it.

For what it is worth, taking the Luck selection out of consideration, I’d still grade the draft overall as a B.
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In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

In Baseball the object is to go home and be safe.

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Old 05-02-2012, 09:04 AM    (permalink
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Kiper mentioned Brazill as a sleeper and someone else (I'm forgetting who) likes him also. And watching his highlights, I can definitely see ability.

Personally, I like the Hilton pick very much. It's my 3rd favorite pick behind Luck and Chapman. He's not just a returner. He's a legit WR prospect. His route running is quick and precise; he has good hands and he isn't afraid to go over the middle. He might have been a higher pick had he played for a Major school.

Now I like both Fleener and Allen, but not back to back. And yes, I understand that it was a major need and we will use 2-TE set a lot, but you can find a #2 TE later or in Free Agency.

I'm also not crazy about the Ballard pick. Not that I don't like him as a prospect, it's just I don't think he'll be much better then Carter and Evans.
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Old 05-02-2012, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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Nice breakdown Seamus. I agree with most of it. The Brazill pick was easily the worst one. It really makes me question how much input Pagano had. I think some people are a little too into the idea of being "disciplined to your board". No one drafts purely based on BPA. What if every time you picked the highest player on the board was a RB? Would you take 7 RBs? Of course not. So need does factor in, for everyone. The question is how much. I think Grigs ignored need too much with this draft. It was not a bad draft by any stretch. But picking 2 WRs and a power RB was irresponsible IMO.
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Old 05-02-2012, 11:19 AM    (permalink
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I agree that sticking strictly to the board isn't always a good idea, but in the late rounds you should go BPA.
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Old 05-02-2012, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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welcome to bruce arians world with the TEs. I feel so bad for luck

Luck to Fleener again is pretty cool though. Expect a ton of 2-3 TE sets, a ton of WR screens and bombs
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Old 05-02-2012, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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I agree that sticking strictly to the board isn't always a good idea, but in the late rounds you should go BPA.
I disagree. There shouldn't be any hard and fast rules. The situation changes too much during the draft. The Colts drafted a blue chip QB, two pass catching TEs, traded up for a home-run threat at WR, and took a RB. They are switching to a 3-4 and their biggest defensive need is corner, which they haven't addressed, and a 1st/2nd round talent at that position is available at your super late 6th round pick. That is the PERFECT time to say "screw the board, we're taking a flyer on Dennard". It is not the time to pick a 4th pass catcher (and 6th "skill position" player). That was a wasted pick. He will never see the field, if he even makes the team at all.
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Old 05-02-2012, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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For me the biggest reason that need factors in is playing time and coaching time. There are only so many snaps and only so many hours a coach can devote to his players. In order for a player to develop he needs to play and he needs to be coached yet the team also have to put the best players on the field and devote the most coaching time to the players who are going to play.

If the best player on your board in the 2nd or 3rd Round be a Wide Receiver but if he isn't going to play significant time because you already have great Wide Receivers then there is no point in taking him, value or no value. The reason I'm not going to jump up and down on Grigson's head is that all of the guys drafted in the 5th Round and above are all going to see significant playing time.

Another reason I'm not going to get really bent out of shape over the offensive bias in the draft is the schematic reasons. Normally you would think that if the Colts are switching from a 4-3, Speed based, Bend don't Break, to the 3-4/4-3/46 Hybrid, Physical, Defensive Smash-mouth style that they would need a lot of new defensive pieces and truth be told they do. But I think Grigson and Pagano want to see how everyone does. Do they need a 5-Tech if Fili Moala steps up and Drake Nevis is able to transition? Do they need an TLB if the likes of A.J. Edds or someone else can step up? Do they need CBs if Rucker and Thomas play better in press man than they did in Cover 2?

Similarly the Offense is playing a similar idea of system, a modified Air Coryell/Run and Shoot Hybrid. While some of the dynamics have changed. Arians system, like Tom Moore/Peyton Manning's system, isn't a pure Air Coryell, with more focus on the no huddle, a base formation, normally the 3WR Singleback, or the two TE set, as well as a lack of a definitive play, putting more on the Quarterback's pre-snap reads.

The Arians system will be similar in some ways, different in others. It introduces some West Coast philosophies into the system, with more screens, middle and horizontal routes, especially from the Tight Ends and Slot Receiver, yet, especially compared to recent Manning teams, it will seek to stretch the field more with more shots down field in an almost traditional Air Coryell attack. Because of the cerebral abilities of Luck many of the defining characteristics of the Moore/Manning system will stay or at least reappear in a year or two, the no huddle, the pre-snap adjustments etc.

Because of the similarity of systems the Colts Front Office were able to more effectively evaluate the Colts players on offense as they will largely speaking be playing a similar system to the one they have played for the last 15 years. Defensively it is very different and they want to get a better read on them and probably go flat out defensively next year.
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In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

In Baseball the object is to go home and be safe.
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Old 05-02-2012, 10:49 PM    (permalink
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I'd agree with Seamus. This year is as much about getting young talent around Luck as possible and for those players to grow with him. We're not going to be competing for division titles for a few years at the earliest so let's evaluate these new guys and see how well they blend in the Arians offense. Ideally it would have been great to see some more Defensive picks early esp picking Upshaw in the 2nd or picking up or Ta'Amu later. That said I don't think you draft a player with Luck's potential ability and then not offer some help with positional players. Some of the o picks were head scrathers but until proven otherwise we'll stick with Grigson. Fact of the matter is we did pass over some decent players on D.

Suspect highly that next year we'll slam the Defense with a slew of picks. I expect the Colts to still run a lot of 4-3 looks with Free/Mathis in their traditional hand down stances. Just looking at the make up of the defensive players going into this season, we were not going to have a whole sale switch to 3-4 soon.
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Old 05-03-2012, 07:18 AM    (permalink
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The Defence is going to be interesting (and a wee bit confusing). Last year the Baltimore Ravens came out with a 4 Man Front about 58% of the time. They came out with a 3 Man Front about 28% of the time.

Now it changes depending on whether you are anticipating the pass or the run. The Ravens came out in a "base" (3-4 or 4-3) defence around 40% of the time, while the Colts came out around 60% of the time, largely because the Colts were ran on a lot more often than the Ravens, though some was also a schematic choice.

I'm going to split the difference for the Colts and have it 50/50.

In the Base Defence about 90% of the plays will be in a 4-3, which is ironic considering that the Base formation for the Defence is supposed to be 3-4. The thing that complicates it is that about 45% of 4-3 plays the 4-3 will be run with broadly speaking 3-4 personell (maybe subbing out the TLB for Conner). Simply put the defence largely stays the same, only one of the MLB goes to WLB, the WLB goes to RE and the RE goes to DT. That means that the 4-3 personell will play about 50% of the base snaps and the 3-4 personell will play about 50% of the base snaps.

In Nickle defenses there are a number of variations, one pure 3-4, one pure 4-3 and one that is a bit in between. The pure 3-4 Nickle package is the 3-3-5 Defence, which the Colts will use probably around 50% of all Nickle plays. The pure 4-3 Nickle package is the 4-2-5, which they will use around 40% of times. The hybrid is the 2-4-5, which is broadly a 3-4 philisophy but uses almost identical personell to the 4-2-5, only with the DE standing up and occasionally droping into coverage. This will probably only be used around 10% of passing plays.

So the Colts will come out (if they play schematically similar to the Ravens) in 3-4 sets (and their Nickle variation) around 35% and 4-3 sets (and their variations) around 65% of the time, yet will use 3-4 personell around 55% and 4-3 personell around 45% of the time.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Carlin

In Football the object is for the Field General to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the Defence by hitting his Receivers with deadly accuracy, in spite of the Blitz, even if he has to use the Shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack which punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s Defensive Line.

In Baseball the object is to go home and be safe.
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Old 05-12-2012, 08:20 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VikesWookie View Post
Hilton has solid skills. Your squad will love this kid... He's absolutely electric :)
If he was 3-5 inches taller he'd have gone much earlier. It's about the only knock I've seen on him. He reminds me a little of a more polished Harry Douglass. Hopefully he can stay injury free and stay on the field more than Douglass has shown...
I agree. "Goodbye" Hilton was my favorite player in this entire draft. He has wheels that are beyond fast. He was super productive in college too with over 7000 all-purpose yards. He reminds me of Az Hakim. Check out the separation he gets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnbDUJDKz6A
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Old 06-21-2012, 12:52 PM    (permalink
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I was a big fan of picking up the two tight ends, paired with Collie that should give Luck plenty of comfort over the middle, and hopefully help him get the ball out quickly because I'm not sold on this line at all.

I wasn't really sure about the Hilton pick, I know we needed a receiver, and he looks like he has the potential to be a solid player, but I really thought we should have tried to pick up a defensive player. Realistically probably could have gotten someone who could start in the DB.
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Old 06-21-2012, 12:54 PM    (permalink
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Oh and agreed on the Chapman pick, good value, even though he will have many opportunities to get on the field right away, it's not like you need a 5th rounder to perform right away, plenty of time to get back to 100%.
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Old 06-23-2012, 02:51 PM    (permalink
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Since Avery is a bit of a question mark with his injury history, Hilton might also be an insurance policy if we need a speed receiver. Wayne & Collie aren't field-stretchers, and while Fleener is fast or his size, most safeties shouldn't be too afraid of his speed.
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