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Old 05-21-2012, 03:36 AM    (permalink
Bengalsrocket
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Originally Posted by whatadai View Post
It's not that absurd. I say it's arguable both ways. IMO, the 2007 Steelers had a much better run game and defense. The offensive line was actually good back then too. They also added Holmes the year before. I think having such a great team around him helped him get that surge in statistics, but the real breakout didn't happen until he had both Holmes and Wallace on the team. And seeing that he hasn't regressed much with the loss of Holmes, I would say that Wallace was the biggest factor.
No, it's pretty absurd :P Statistics aside (since you don't want to believe in his 2007 season) Roethlisberger has been destroying defenses on 3rd down since his first Superbowl. Yes, he threw a lot of interceptions in 2006, but that's because the offense was run, run, pass on 3rd and 8+.

His game is a little different than "prototypical", but no one does it better. He "broke out" a long time ago.

Maybe this is a semantics argument though. Typically in sports people tend to use the term break out to describe players who seperate themselves from the average players. Roethlisberger hasn't been average for awhile now :P
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Old 05-21-2012, 07:35 AM    (permalink
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No, it's pretty absurd :P Statistics aside (since you don't want to believe in his 2007 season) Roethlisberger has been destroying defenses on 3rd down since his first Superbowl. Yes, he threw a lot of interceptions in 2006, but that's because the offense was run, run, pass on 3rd and 8+.

His game is a little different than "prototypical", but no one does it better. He "broke out" a long time ago.

Maybe this is a semantics argument though. Typically in sports people tend to use the term break out to describe players who seperate themselves from the average players. Roethlisberger hasn't been average for awhile now :P
Exactly what I've been trying to say haha. You just described it better then I did. I don't recall seeing huge differences in Roethlisberger's game from 07, to 08, to 09, so I wouldn't call that a break out.
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Old 05-21-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Didn't Harbaugh just say the other day that Crabtree has the best hands he has ever seen for a wide receiver?
Don't believe everything a team says to a reporter for your standard puff piece. The Bears have been saying for six offseasons "this is the year Devin Hester is going to break out!" The guys is about to turn 30, lol. Mike Tice says that the worst left tackle in the league is on the verge of dominance.

Anyway, you're right about Crabtree not being a bust. That's silly talk. He's already proven he's not that...and if he were paired with a better QB, people wouldn't be talking like that. I'm unbiased on the matter and I've seen him play. His QB is obviously holding him back. He doesn't look like he's going to be dominant or anything, but he definitely looks like he can just as good as Keyshawn Johnson or Muhsin Muhammad in their primes.

Real busts: Rashaun Woods, Desmond Howard, David Terrell, Troy Edwards, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams, Ted Ginn Jr.

Anyone who feels comfortable putting Crabtree in that list is a hater.

...and yes, Crabtree still looks better than HeyBey.
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Old 05-21-2012, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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Anyway, you're right about Crabtree not being a bust. That's silly talk. He's already proven he's not that...and if he were paired with a better QB, people wouldn't be talking like that. I'm unbiased on the matter and I've seen him play. His QB is obviously holding him back. He doesn't look like he's going to be dominant or anything, but he definitely looks like he can just as good as Keyshawn Johnson or Muhsin Muhammad in their primes.
QuarterbackS in general. He's played with Alex Smith, Troy Smith, and Shaun Hill.

Crabtree did quite well considering how conservative the Harbaugh offense was last season. If Alex Smith continues his improved play and the additions of explosive targets loosens defenses on Crabtree, I expect him to have great success.

But I'm a blind homer.
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Old 05-21-2012, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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But I'm a blind homer.
Don't forget about the sliced bread stuff too!
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Old 05-23-2012, 11:05 PM    (permalink
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Didn't Harbaugh just say the other day that Crabtree has the best hands he has ever seen for a wide receiver?
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Don't believe everything a team says to a reporter for your standard puff piece. The Bears have been saying for six offseasons "this is the year Devin Hester is going to break out!" The guys is about to turn 30, lol. Mike Tice says that the worst left tackle in the league is on the verge of dominance.
You're absolutely right, but Harbaugh doesn't back down...

Quote:
Coach Jim Harbaugh stated a week ago that 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree has the best hands of any wide receiver he has ever seen.

Nothing has happened in a week to make Harbaugh change his mind.

"Yes, yes, he's got tremendous hands," Harbaugh said Wednesday of Crabtree.

And when asked if he meant what he said, Harbaugh did not back off.

"The comment stands on its own merit," Harbaugh said. "I know you guys have dissected it about every which way it can be dissected. But it is literal. It is a literal fact, what I believe as I see it and believe it to be."
http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-s...38&feedID=5936
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Old 05-27-2012, 12:46 AM    (permalink
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Those big drops Crabtree had in that Saints game in the playoffs are the closest memory I have of him. That's crunch time, that's when you want to see a guy show up and take over the moment because he wants the ball in his hands, he fell short big time.


I don't want to hear about how "Alex Smith is his QB so that's the best his numbers are going to be" because big time WR's produce no matter who the QB is. Dez Bryant had 5 TD's in 7 games when Jon Kitna was playing, and it's not like there were a ton of good throws in there. Anquan Boldin went nuts with Jeff Blake, a WR is supposed to make his QB better and while this offense isn't the Saints there is some opportunity here for him to produce much better.



He's had three 100 yard games in 3 seasons, and I've never seen any game changing ability from here. Where are the flashes of greatness? Where is he taking over a game by just touching the ball? He's not a threat with the ball in his hands at any point and I don't see much upside with his run after the catch ability.



His highlight tape is literally 90% catching slant passes and getting tackled immediately. I haven't really saw any flashes of being that dominant force he was expected to be and he's played 3 years now. I have no doubt that he'll be a solid NFL player for a long time but not dominant, or elite, or a #1 guy.


I think his ceiling is a Muhsin Muhammed type of career. He'll always produce just enough to not be considered terrible. He's had more then enough time to show flashes of being an elite WR and I think if your waiting for that to still happen your fooling yourself.
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Old 05-27-2012, 12:59 AM    (permalink
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Those big drops Crabtree had in that Saints game in the playoffs are the closest memory I have of him. That's crunch time, that's when you want to see a guy show up and take over the moment because he wants the ball in his hands, he fell short big time.


I don't want to hear about how "Alex Smith is his QB so that's the best his numbers are going to be" because big time WR's produce no matter who the QB is. Dez Bryant had 5 TD's in 7 games when Jon Kitna was playing, and it's not like there were a ton of good throws in there. Anquan Boldin went nuts with Jeff Blake, a WR is supposed to make his QB better and while this offense isn't the Saints there is some opportunity here for him to produce much better.



He's had three 100 yard games in 3 seasons, and I've never seen any game changing ability from here. Where are the flashes of greatness? Where is he taking over a game by just touching the ball? He's not a threat with the ball in his hands at any point and I don't see much upside with his run after the catch ability.



His highlight tape is literally 90% catching slant passes and getting tackled immediately. I haven't really saw any flashes of being that dominant force he was expected to be and he's played 3 years now. I have no doubt that he'll be a solid NFL player for a long time but not dominant, or elite, or a #1 guy.


I think his ceiling is a Muhsin Muhammed type of career. He'll always produce just enough to not be considered terrible. He's had more then enough time to show flashes of being an elite WR and I think if your waiting for that to still happen your fooling yourself.
I truly feel alot of it has to do with health. We shall see.

Quote:
Michael Crabtree is hearing late-May hosannas from Jim Harbaugh (the best hands ever!) and now Alex Smith, who said Wednesday that he’s never seen the fourth-year wide receiver with such a spring in his step.

He’s healthy and I think he’s excited about that,” Smith said. “I think he’s feeling really good. You come out and watch and he’s running better than he ever has since I’ve seen him. Running really well out here, making plays. It’s exciting to see.

Of course, plenty of fans aren’t buying into Crabtree’s spring stardom based his work, or lack thereof, last winter when it mattered most.

Crabtree’s totals from two playoff games: 5 catches, 28 yards and at least two drops.

In the NFC Championship Game, he had one catch. His longest catch of the postseason: 9 yards.

His big-game vanishing act can’t be dismissed, but it has overshadowed the fact that Crabtree, viewed by many as a top-10 draft bust, put up No. 1-wideout-worthy numbers during the final two-and-half months of 2011. In the season’s final 11 games, Crabtree had 61 catches for 742 yards and four touchdowns, which would translate to 89 catches, 1,079 yards and six touchdowns over a 16-game season.

During that stretch, Crabtree had more receptions than Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe and then-Dolphins wideout Brandon Marshall had in their final 11 games. He also had more yards than Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace and as many touchdowns as New England’s Wes Welker.

Crabtree doesn’t have the size, speed or pedigree of Randy Moss. He doesn’t have the big-game heroics of Mario Manningham. And he doesn’t possess the promising clean slate of first-round pick A.J. Jenkins.

Still, while Moss was in retirement, Manningham was in the midst of an injury plagued 39-catch season and Jenkins was in the Big Ten, Crabtree was quietly producing like a No. 1 NFL wide receiver during the latter stages of 2011.

If he can maintain his current health, it’s a title he could hold in 2012, even with the added competition on the roster.

“I know a lot of the new faces get a lot of the attention,” Smith said. “But he’s doing really well here.”

* Below is a look at how Crabtree ranked among the wide receivers that finished among the NFL’s top 10 in receptions and yards in 2011. The numbers are from each wideout’s final 11 games of the regular season:

RECEPTIONS

1. Wes Welker, Patriots, 77

2. Percy Harvin, Vikings, 69

T3. Marques Colston, Saints, 68

T3. Roddy White, Falcons, 68

5. Calvin Johnson, Lions, 67

6. Victor Cruz, Giants, 63

7. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, 61

8. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs, 58

T9. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, 53

T9. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins, 53

11. Steve Smith, Panthers, 52

YARDS

1. Calvin Johnson, Lions, 1,230

2. Victor Cruz, Giants, 1,150

3. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, 984

4. Jordy Nelson, Packers, 954

5. Roddy White, Falcons, 944

6. Wes Welker, Patriots, 829

7. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins, 792

8. Steve Smith, Panthers, 785

9. Hakeem Nicks, Giants, 780

10. Michael Crabtree, 49ers, 742

11. Mike Wallace, Steelers, 657

http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2012/05...1-games-of-11/
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Old 05-27-2012, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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You're absolutely right, but Harbaugh doesn't back down...


http://www.csnbayarea.com/football-s...38&feedID=5936
Saying it multiple times doesn't make it true. Not sure why you bothered posting this when it's just the usual obvious optimistic lying a coach does in the offseason.

I mean...you don't really think it's true do you? I'm kind of scared that you do with all of the bolding and whatnot. That would be a level of homerism attained by a special few.


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I think his ceiling is a Muhsin Muhammed type of career. He'll always produce just enough to not be considered terrible.
A Muhsin Muhammad career is worthy of a top ten pick. If you KNEW a guy was going to be Muhsin Muhammad, you'd take him top ten no problem. That's not producing just enough to not be considered terrible.
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Old 05-27-2012, 02:35 PM    (permalink
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Those big drops Crabtree had in that Saints game in the playoffs are the closest memory I have of him. That's crunch time, that's when you want to see a guy show up and take over the moment because he wants the ball in his hands, he fell short big time.


I don't want to hear about how "Alex Smith is his QB so that's the best his numbers are going to be" because big time WR's produce no matter who the QB is. Dez Bryant had 5 TD's in 7 games when Jon Kitna was playing, and it's not like there were a ton of good throws in there. Anquan Boldin went nuts with Jeff Blake, a WR is supposed to make his QB better and while this offense isn't the Saints there is some opportunity here for him to produce much better.



He's had three 100 yard games in 3 seasons, and I've never seen any game changing ability from here. Where are the flashes of greatness? Where is he taking over a game by just touching the ball? He's not a threat with the ball in his hands at any point and I don't see much upside with his run after the catch ability.



His highlight tape is literally 90% catching slant passes and getting tackled immediately. I haven't really saw any flashes of being that dominant force he was expected to be and he's played 3 years now. I have no doubt that he'll be a solid NFL player for a long time but not dominant, or elite, or a #1 guy.


I think his ceiling is a Muhsin Muhammed type of career. He'll always produce just enough to not be considered terrible. He's had more then enough time to show flashes of being an elite WR and I think if your waiting for that to still happen your fooling yourself.
Ding ding ding. We have a winner.

There is nothing special about Michael Crabtree. Not his speed, his get off, his size, his route running, his timing, nothing.

Can he be a productive player? Sure, but he screams average. And I've seen nothing, not even flashes, to make me think he's gonna suddenly change.
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Old 05-27-2012, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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A Muhsin Muhammad career is worthy of a top ten pick. If you KNEW a guy was going to be Muhsin Muhammad, you'd take him top ten no problem. That's not producing just enough to not be considered terrible.

You'd draft a guy in the top 10 knowing full well you were going to get three 1000 yard seasons out of 14? One season with double digit TD's? Maybe we are talking about the wrong player...
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Old 05-27-2012, 04:34 PM    (permalink
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I remember Muhsin had that one great year in Carolina when Steve Smith went down but other than that he was nothing to write home about.

edit: It was 2004. 93 catches, 1405 yards, 16 TDs. Ridiculous season by any standard.
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Old 05-27-2012, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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He's had three 100 yard games in 3 seasons, and I've never seen any game changing ability from here. Where are the flashes of greatness? Where is he taking over a game by just touching the ball? He's not a threat with the ball in his hands at any point and I don't see much upside with his run after the catch ability.
Well, he is getting 100 yard games at a better clip than your boy Dez at this point. Dez has 1 in 2 seasons.
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Old 05-28-2012, 01:54 PM    (permalink
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You'd draft a guy in the top 10 knowing full well you were going to get three 1000 yard seasons out of 14? One season with double digit TD's? Maybe we are talking about the wrong player...
1. An average of 800 yards per season over fourteen years (practically unheard of) while being the second option for 11 seasons and with terrible QBs for his entire career.
2. An average of 900 yards per season once he became a starter.
3. A top two blocking WR for his entire career.
4. What percentage of top ten wideouts finish their careers with over 10k yards? Can't be high. Only seven top ten wideouts have done it.
5. What percentage of wideouts picked anywhere finish their careers with over 10k yards? Can't be too high, seeing as only 34 WRs have done it.

All-time positions for WR stats:
17th in receptions
23rd in receiving yards
59th in receiving TDs
71st in yards per game

That's with Jake Delhomme and the dark years of the Bears changing starting QBs every other game.

Yes, if you absolutely knew a wide receiver was going to have Muhsin Muhammad's career, he'd 100% be worth a top ten pick. It's a no-brainer. He's one of the best possession receivers of all-time. This forum drastically overvalues draft picks and undervalues any receiver who isn't a prototypical #1.

Just productive enough to not be considered terrible?!
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Old 05-28-2012, 02:15 PM    (permalink
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I'm going to go ahead and lay this out there...

Both Marvin Harrison and Muhsin Muhammad were drafted in 1996. If they'd switched teams, people would be dumping on Harrison and calling Muhammad a hall of famer.
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Old 06-02-2012, 08:07 PM    (permalink
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DHB works had every off season to work on his flaws actually he never leaves in bay area in the off-season. He is not so much as the down field threat he is more of a come back slant inside type of WR. D.Moore is the deep target. But DHB still has catches with his body every once in a while but has really approved and he would hit the 1,000 yard mark this season.
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Old 06-02-2012, 08:39 PM    (permalink
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Below is a look at how Crabtree ranked among the wide receivers that finished among the NFL’s top 10 in receptions and yards in 2011. The numbers are from each wideout’s final 11 games of the regular season:
So we're going to throw out the first five games (roughly 1/3 of the season), and then trot out the resulting statistics?

What is this I don't even...

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Old 06-02-2012, 08:56 PM    (permalink
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So we're going to throw out the first five games (roughly 1/3 of the season), and then trot out the resulting statistics?

What is this I don't even...
He wasnt a 100% healthy to start the year. He re-aggrevated his foot in the first game, didnt return and actually sat out the Cowboys game. Most think his production in the later portion of the season is directly related to his health improving.
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Old 06-02-2012, 09:01 PM    (permalink
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He wasnt a 100% healthy to start the year. He re-aggrevated his foot in the first game, didnt return and actually sat out the Cowboys game. Most think his production in the later portion of the season is directly related to his health improving.
My point was that you can't just toss out all of the weeks that he was unhealthy and then claim he finished the season as anything even close to a top 10 WR. Greg Jennings is demonstrably better and more productive than Crabtree, but was conspicuously absent from those lists, because he was injured and missed several games late in the season. I'm guessing that a lot of other productive WRs had nagging injuries or just flat-out missed games during the last two thirds of the season.

You guys are tossing out a third of the season and then saying "look where he ranks in this subset of the season!!!"

I still like Crabtree, but arguments like that aren't going to do much to drum up support from people who aren't wearing red-and-gold tinted glasses.

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Old 06-02-2012, 10:59 PM    (permalink
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My point was that you can't just toss out all of the weeks that he was unhealthy and then claim he finished the season as anything even close to a top 10 WR. Greg Jennings is demonstrably better and more productive than Crabtree, but was conspicuously absent from those lists, because he was injured and missed several games late in the season. I'm guessing that a lot of other productive WRs had nagging injuries or just flat-out missed games during the last two thirds of the season.

You guys are tossing out a third of the season and then saying "look where he ranks in this subset of the season!!!"

I still like Crabtree, but arguments like that aren't going to do much to drum up support from people who aren't wearing red-and-gold tinted glasses.
Or it just shows that some only look at the "stats", whereas you could look at it as his achievable production.

I quoted the article to show he can produce and isn't some terrible bust WR as some have insinuated/stated.

Am I rating him? Absolutely not. But he can produce at a high level when healthy.
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Old 06-03-2012, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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Or it just shows that some only look at the "stats", whereas you could look at it as his achievable production.

I quoted the article to show he can produce and isn't some terrible bust WR as some have insinuated/stated.

Am I rating him? Absolutely not. But he can produce at a high level when healthy.
He had a lot of catches in that stretch but a low YPC (12.1). He was also the only receiving target on the team besides VD so he was definitely going to be the top target. And while he occasionally made a game breaking play, it indicates he wasn't a consistent gamebreaker. Not to mention 3 of his 4 TD's came against the Rams (with 1 of them on a trick field goal nobody saw coming).

Basically, analyzing rather than just ranking it, i don't see it as a high level of production. I just see a guy who's a slightly above average possesion WR. But thats just my take.
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Old 06-03-2012, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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He had a lot of catches in that stretch but a low YPC (12.1). He was also the only receiving target on the team besides VD so he was definitely going to be the top target. And while he occasionally made a game breaking play, it indicates he wasn't a consistent gamebreaker. Not to mention 3 of his 4 TD's came against the Rams (with 1 of them on a trick field goal nobody saw coming).

Basically, analyzing rather than just ranking it, i don't see it as a high level of production. I just see a guy who's a slightly above average possesion WR. But thats just my take.


This. That's why there is so much back and forth on him, because it's not like he's so bad he's going to be out of the league or can't make an NFL roster, he just seems average and I don't doubt that he won't be able to produce, but there has been enough of a sampling to know what you have with him.


He's played 3 years, caught nearly 200 balls, he's not going to turn into a game changing, elite WR that can take over games.



Why is it that Kenny Britt who has caught almost 100 less balls and everybody is pretty positive that he can be a stud? Because you can see it with your own eyes. You don't have to add up his stats, or guess what percentage of health he has played at.


There are quite a few studs at WR from that 09 class of WR's, Michael Crabtree certainly isn't one of them. Anyone who is still holding out hope for that is going to be grabbing at straws looking for any reason to come up with as to why it hasn't happened yet.
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Old 06-03-2012, 08:38 PM    (permalink
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This. That's why there is so much back and forth on him, because it's not like he's so bad he's going to be out of the league or can't make an NFL roster, he just seems average and I don't doubt that he won't be able to produce, but there has been enough of a sampling to know what you have with him.


He's played 3 years, caught nearly 200 balls, he's not going to turn into a game changing, elite WR that can take over games.



Why is it that Kenny Britt who has caught almost 100 less balls and everybody is pretty positive that he can be a stud? Because you can see it with your own eyes. You don't have to add up his stats, or guess what percentage of health he has played at.


There are quite a few studs at WR from that 09 class of WR's, Michael Crabtree certainly isn't one of them. Anyone who is still holding out hope for that is going to be grabbing at straws looking for any reason to come up with as to why it hasn't happened yet.
But your not telling us anything a MAJORITY of Niner fans don't already know. We all agree with just about all your points. But in this day and age of the FF mindset, you have to argue against ppl who only want to recite stats as the main arguement for contention. Myself and others are giving you reasons those stats could be skewed. But make no mistake about it, we all know what Crabtree isn't and that's a legitmate #1 WR, which he was drafted to be. But I still think he's a better WR than DHB, hands down. And I still think if he were in a more balanced offense, we wouldnt even be having this conversation because his numbers would be better and no one would feel the need to argue the point. But better numbers doesn't change the player he is. It just changes the perception to the average fan that doesn't bother to watch him closely, but rather let the numbers dictate whether he is a bust or not.
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Old 08-03-2012, 08:21 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't be surprised if he got "injured" again this off-season and is unable to do **** for most of it. Funny how he's always injured in the off-season and pre-season and then fine when it comes to the first week.
Called it.
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Old 08-03-2012, 09:13 PM    (permalink
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Called it.
Let's see how long he's off. A preseason game AT ALL, would be his first ever.
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