The Official Training Camp thread. - Page 29

BeerBaron · 08-20-2012, 04:51 PM

Yeah, this talk of the Colts earning a winning record is beyond moronic. They'll win 4-6 games while being a team clearly on the rise, much like the Panthers last year.

WCH · 08-20-2012, 05:02 PM

I thought that the Andrew Luck hype would peak in April. I was obviously wrong.

The guy is a great prospect and I think he'll be a great player in the NFL, but lets not go insane.

K Train · 08-20-2012, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

Yeah, this talk of the Colts earning a winning record is beyond moronic. They'll win 4-6 games while being a team clearly on the rise, much like the Panthers last year.

beyond moronic??? lets take it easy there, turn arounds are much faster than they used to be i dont know when the panthers became the jumping off point for turning a team around.

Lions without stafford=****...with stafford they make the playoffs
Colts without manning=****...with manning they win 12 games a year
Falcons before ryan after vick=****...with him they go from 3rd overall to playoffs
saints before brees=****...with him they go from nothingness to superbowl contender
cards before warner=****...with him goes to the superbowl as the worst playoff team ever
vikings before favre=****...with him goes to the NFC championship
bengals with all those ****** QBs post palmer=****, draft dalton with a low ceiling to play marginally well...playoffs
even bengals back with kitna=pure ****, with palmer they have a playoff team

good QB play can go a LONG way, even somewhat decent QB play can get you an 8-8 record, not sure thats a moronic theory

BeerBaron · 08-20-2012, 08:45 PM

You're picking out exceptions when the overwhelming majority of rookie QBs end up with losing records.

Neither Stafford nor Peyton led their team to the playoffs as rookies. Hell, Peyton only won 3 games.

Brees and Favre are stretches, as both were veterans going to new teams. Brees had made a pro bowl and Favre is a GOAT candidate to many people. Extreme stretches to use them. Even Warner barely counts, as he was brought into backup Leinart and didn't make that Superbowl right away.

I don't know what it is about the internet in general, but exceptions seem to become the rule. If one guys does one thing while 99 others failed, suddenly anyone remote like the one guy who succeeded is compared to him.

I don't bet, because I know as well as anyone that anything can happen in the NFL, but I'll all but guarantee you the Colts do not approach a winning record this year. I doubt any of the teams starting rookie QBs headed into week 1 do.

gpngc · 08-20-2012, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

You're picking out exceptions when the overwhelming majority of rookie QBs end up with losing records.

Neither Stafford nor Peyton led their team to the playoffs as rookies. Hell, Peyton only won 3 games.

Brees and Favre are stretches, as both were veterans going to new teams. Brees had made a pro bowl and Favre is a GOAT candidate to many people. Extreme stretches to use them. Even Warner barely counts, as he was brought into backup Leinart and didn't make that Superbowl right away.

I don't know what it is about the internet in general, but exceptions seem to become the rule. If one guys does one thing while 99 others failed, suddenly anyone remote like the one guy who succeeded is compared to him.

I don't bet, because I know as well as anyone that anything can happen in the NFL, but I'll all but guarantee you the Colts do not approach a winning record this year. I doubt any of the teams starting rookie QBs headed into week 1 do.

None of them have ever been the most pro-ready rookie in NFL history during the era of the NFL in which QB rookie success is most easily attained.

It's not a coincidence that this season will feature the most starting rookies in NFL history. College football has changed - Luck ran a pro offense at Stanford. HS football has changed. Rookie QBs are more ready than ever because they've been training for this day their entire lives.

Carolina last year lost a bunch of close games (only three by more than one score) and had a horrendous defense. The Colts defense might be just as bad or it might improve. The Texans defense was the worst in the league and then a year later added Wade Phillips and became No. 1. This is a topsy-turvy, year-to-year, week-to-week league. There are reasons to think the Colts D will improve (although the loss to Angerer sucks). In fact, it has to improve, as it can go no where but up. And ABSOLUTELY having a better offense positively affects a defense. As will the addition of Pagano - they were clearly lost with Caldwell in their bend-don't-break scheme that is built on playing with the league.

And a good way to measure a schedule is to look at the QBs a team goes up against. The Texans last year are a great example as they were EXTREMELY fortunate to go up against a mostly horrible slate of QBs week to week.

Here's the Colts this year, obviously projected:

@ Cutler
Ponder
Gabbert
Rodgers
@ Sanchbow
Weeden
@ Locker
Tannehill
@ Gabbert
@ Brady
Fitzmagic
@ Stafford
Locker
Schaub
@ Cassel
Schaub

The Colts will have the better player at the most impactful position in the game in 10 of their 16 games.

And I'd argue 12 because I think he'll be better than Schaub right away.

vidae · 08-20-2012, 09:07 PM

The Luck boners are still very strong here at the DC boards.

Bengalsrocket · 08-20-2012, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by K Train

...
bengals with all those ****** QBs post palmer=****, draft dalton with a low ceiling to play marginally well...playoffs---

There were no QB's between Palmer and Dalton. Dalton literally started the first game that Palmer didn't (though I guess he did hurt his wrist in the 2nd quarter, but Gradkowski won the game anyways).

gpngc · 08-20-2012, 09:10 PM

I understand some people can't/don't like to watch Pac-12 football, but Luck's just so obviously a future elite NFL starter, and probably right away - that's just from watching him operate.

I understand the skepticism though because it's not easy to watch the 10 pm games on Saturday nights.

BeerBaron · 08-20-2012, 09:26 PM

Dude, can it. There were few people with as realistically high of expectations of Luck as me for the last two college seasons and through this draft season.

But he, like any rookie QB who has ever played the game, is far, far, far more likely to end up with a losing record this year. That Colts team didn't "earn" the right to draft him by being so awesome at every position but QB. The o-line is still shaky, I don't trust Donald Brown for ****, their pass catchers outside of Wayne are mostly rookies and they're going to be implementing a whole new defense.

I think they win about 4-6 games and are looked at as a team on the rise headed forward after this year. That is my prediction.

niel89 · 08-21-2012, 12:58 AM

People are getting just a little unrealistic in here. Luck is going win 10+ games this year and for the rest of his career. You are a stupid if you think otherwise.

not sarcasm

vidae · 08-21-2012, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by niel89

People are getting just a little unrealistic in here. Luck is going win 10+ games this year and for the rest of his career. You are a stupid if you think otherwise.

not sarcasm

notsureifsrs.jpg

WCH · 08-21-2012, 01:33 AM

I've compiled a complete list of NFL QBs who've done that. Here's the list:

Cigaro · 08-21-2012, 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WCH

I've compiled a complete list of NFL QBs who've done that. Here's the list:

But they aren't Andrew Luck!

Ness · 08-21-2012, 01:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

You're picking out exceptions when the overwhelming majority of rookie QBs end up with losing records.

Would it really be a shock if the Colts have winning record in 2012? If there is one candidate to turn the franchise around, Andrew Luck might have the ability to do it. Houston is good, and the Titans are on the rise, but I just personally wouldn't be shocked. Luck in his limited appearances already looks like an NFL veteran. A good one. If I had to bet I still think the Colts aren't going to have a winning record, but if they do I wouldn't be surprised. We've seen more shocking things in the NFL I'd like to believe.

Cigaro · 08-21-2012, 02:00 AM

Week 1 -- @ Bears

Week 2 -- Vikings

Week 3 -- Jaguars

Week 4 -- BYE

Week 5 -- Packers

Week 6 -- @ Jets

Week 7 -- Browns

Week 8 -- @ Titans

Week 9 -- Dolphins

Week 10 -- @ Jags

Week 11 -- @ Pats

Week 12 -- Bills

Week 13 -- @ Lions

Week 14 -- Titans

Week 15 -- @ Texans

Week 16 -- @ Chiefs

Week 17 -- Texans

For those saying the Colts have a shot at a winning season, care to actually break down their schedule and show how you think this is possible?

I can see them possibly beating the Vikings, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars again, and perhaps the Bills. But that is only 7 wins, and those games for the most part can easily go down as losses as well.

scottyboy · 08-21-2012, 08:13 AM

it would be a shock because the team as a whole is pretty freaking terrible.

but apparently, if you have the better QB each week, you're gonna win. makes sense

jrdrylie · 08-21-2012, 08:26 AM

Cigaro, I broke it down on the previous page. But here it is again.

Winnnable Home Games (4): Vikings, Jaguars, Browns, Dolphins
Toss-Up Home Games (3): Bills, Texans, Titans
Home Losses (1): Packers

Winnable Away Games (2): Jets, Jaguars
Toss-Up Away Games (2): Titans, Chiefs
Away Losses (4): Bears, Patriots, Lions, Texans

So looking at the schedule, there are only five games I look at and almost guarantee a loss. Of the games I termed winnable, they will end up losing at least one of those (I'll say Jaguars). And the toss up games, at best they go 3-2 (lossing to Houston and Tennessee) . So right there are 8 losses.

End of story, I think 8-8 is possible, but not probable. Colts fans should be ecstatic if they do that well, satisfied with 7 wins, but expect 6.

K Train · 08-21-2012, 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBaron

You're picking out exceptions when the overwhelming majority of rookie QBs end up with losing records.

Neither Stafford nor Peyton led their team to the playoffs as rookies. Hell, Peyton only won 3 games.

Brees and Favre are stretches, as both were veterans going to new teams. Brees had made a pro bowl and Favre is a GOAT candidate to many people. Extreme stretches to use them. Even Warner barely counts, as he was brought into backup Leinart and didn't make that Superbowl right away.

I don't know what it is about the internet in general, but exceptions seem to become the rule. If one guys does one thing while 99 others failed, suddenly anyone remote like the one guy who succeeded is compared to him.

I don't bet, because I know as well as anyone that anything can happen in the NFL, but I'll all but guarantee you the Colts do not approach a winning record this year. I doubt any of the teams starting rookie QBs headed into week 1 do.

you guarantee the dont even APPROACH a winning record? jeez

with favre and brees my point was they went from AWFUL QB play to pretty good QB play, lets not act like either were a sure thing either, brees was coming off a serious shoulder injury and was not the master of the position he is today and favre was approaching 40 years old. And with the bengals, while palmer was hurt they were awful, then they got a high pick in green and dalton, but even with a good supporting cast and good defense dalton only had to play kinda well. All im saying is you are saying he cant and wont be an exception to this rule when really its all about the QB play and if he does come out and play well, pretty much as well as expected by the majority the colts can very well be a competitive team. Could they be like the panther last year? a bad win record but clearly on the rise....sure, but i did think the panthers were competitive last year and a few games could have gone either way. The NFL South is much tougher than the AFC south, i dont think the colts can just be counted out, they could easily be a second place team in a division like that

BeerBaron · 08-21-2012, 08:36 AM

We'll see. 4-6 wins I still say. Going from a 2 win team that is going to be very young on offense to .500+ seems ludicrously unlikely.

The Panthers were a more talented team last year and got one of the greatest seasons ever by a rookie QB.....6 wins. If you call Reggie Wayne and Steve Smith a wash, the Panthers still had the better o-line, the better running back stable and the better group of secondary pass catchers. (Fleener and Allen should be good, but are still unproven rookies compared to Olsen, who is an above average veteran TE.)

jrdrylie · 08-21-2012, 08:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gpngc

And a good way to measure a schedule is to look at the QBs a team goes up against. The Texans last year are a great example as they were EXTREMELY fortunate to go up against a mostly horrible slate of QBs week to week.

Here's the Colts this year, obviously projected:

@ Cutler
Ponder
Gabbert
Rodgers
@ Sanchbow
Weeden
@ Locker
Tannehill
@ Gabbert
@ Brady
Fitzmagic
@ Stafford
Locker
Schaub
@ Cassel
Schaub

The Colts will have the better player at the most impactful position in the game in 10 of their 16 games.

And I'd argue 12 because I think he'll be better than Schaub right away.

I just saw this and this serves as proof that the Andrew Luck dick sucking train has gotten way out of control. We may think Luck is going to be great, but the guy has taken as many meaningful NFL snaps as I have. At this point, you can't even say the Colts will have the advantage at QB even against Jacksonville and Minnesota, let alone guys like Schuab or Cassel. Yes, he has looked pretty good so far. But it is preseason. you know who else has looked very good this preseason? Blaine Gabbert! So it means nothing. When teams actually start game planning for him and going 100% in the regular season, he is going to take his lumps. He is not going to be a 4000 yard 30 TD 12 INT guy year one.

K Train · 08-21-2012, 08:46 AM

btw i think caldwell was a terrible terrible head coach, a QB even if hes a rookie and a good coach can go such a long way to success. Remember the niners were bad just the year before they became NFC favorites all because of harbaugh? he didnt exactly clean house on what we saw as a less than stellar roster with painfully average QB play. Not saying pagano is that guy, but i definitely think hes going to be better than caldwell

I do think both luck and RG3 are going to find some success as rookies, theres been bad teams with good QB play and good coaches go 8-8 before i just dont get how the thought of them even approaching that is out of the realm of possibility or "beyond moronic"

SuperPacker · 08-21-2012, 08:51 AM

Wow. This just took off to a whole new level.

It's shocking how good people expect Luck to be in his first season. He's set up for failure now.

The Colts won't have the better QB is 10 out of 16 games.

@ Cutler
Ponder
Gabbert
Rodgers
@ Sanchbow
Weeden
@ Locker
Tannehill
@ Gabbert
@ Brady
Fitzmagic
@ Stafford
Locker
Schaub
@ Cassel
Schaub

So they PROBABLY have the better QB in 5 of their 16 games. Jake Locker is arguable, but they actually chose him over Hasselbeck (who was better last year than Luck will be this year). And don't forget that in basically every game they play, if you take out the QB's, they will have the worse team. I echo what others have said. 4-6 wins.

jrdrylie · 08-21-2012, 08:52 AM

How many NFL games has Chuck Pagano coached? That's right, ZERO! He could be as inept as Caldwell for all we know.

BeerBaron · 08-21-2012, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrdrylie

How many NFL games has Chuck Pagano coached? That's right, ZERO! He could be as inept as Caldwell for all we know.

It would be downright impressive for any head coach to ever be as inept as Caldwell. Caldwell didn't seem to know anything beyond "insert Peyton Manning, win games."

K Train · 08-21-2012, 09:01 AM

i guess we'll have to look back in a few months, right now i think its possible they could win 5 of their first 7 or 8 and shock the world even if they completely fall off the map after that. Bills did it 2 years ago, hell the first month in a half the bills were the best team in NY and then they fell off. Early in the season is by far the cotls best chance to rack up some wins, so we'll see. Im not saying its going to happen and luck is going to be the MVP, but i dont think they look like a team that wont at least be competitive in many of their games even if they end up losing more than i think they will