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Old 08-21-2012, 09:01 AM    (permalink
Matthew Jones
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I'm generally not one for making statistical projections, but I'd be surprised if Andrew Luck didn't throw for at least 3,600 yards and 20+ touchdowns this season. Keep in mind that Sam Bradford passed for 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns as a rookie despite missing almost the entire season prior and entering the league as an underclassmen from a spread offense.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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I'm generally not one for making statistical projections, but I'd be surprised if Andrew Luck didn't throw for at least 3,600 yards and 20+ touchdowns this season. Keep in mind that Sam Bradford passed for 3,500 yards and 18 touchdowns as a rookie despite missing almost the entire season prior and entering the league as an underclassmen from a spread offense.
Andy dalton had 3400 and 20, but no way luck can do that everyone thinks hes too good already. TOO MUCH HYPE TO BE SUCCESSFUL
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:11 AM    (permalink
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When it comes to the Colts it's not even a case of breaking down their schedule to know they will have struggles, just look at the roster. I do think they will be improved but they don't have enough talent or enough depth to compete with most teams, particluarly late in the season.

Luck will likely be a very good QB but let's calm down with the hype. He hasn't taken a snap in a meaningful game yet.

The offensive line is very weak and has no depth whatsoever.

Reggie Wayne has lost a step and Austin Collie has yet another concussion. After that the likely top receiving options are two rookie TEs and a rookie WR.

They also have one of the worst RB stables in the NFL.

On defense they can get after the passer from the edges with Freeney and Mathis, and you never know, maybe Jerry Hughes turns it around in a new scheme. However what else do they have? The secondary is below average, the LBs are below average and the defensive line is below average.

I'm not meaning to be harsh, but that is the reality of a team who was one of the worst in NFL history last year. It will take time for them to rebuild the talent and depth on their squad.

Now when talking about their schedule, look at the teams in their division.

The Texans will be favoured to win both games comfortably and the Titans, even with Locker will be favourites in both games also.

The Jags have a borderline elite defense. First to 14 points probably wins both of these games.

If the Colts go 2-4 in their division it is a very good return.

They play the NFC North where the will be big underdogs in 3 of those games.

They also play the AFC East where realistically they can compete with likely 2 teams out of the 4. They won't score with the Patriots and their offensive line will get ragdolled by the Bills. So say they beat either the Dolphins or Jets and lose the other 3.

Their other two games are the Browns and Chiefs. Say they go 1-1 there.

That gives them 5 wins on the year. Now looking at the whole any given Sunday thing I could be nice and add on 2 other possible wins. I think the absolute ceiling for the Colts this year is 7 wins which is a fantastic turnaround given last year.

This is all predicated on them staying healthy. Injuries are a killer for any team, let alone one as depleted as the Colts. They have already lost a starting offensive lineman and LB for the year. Imagine they lost Freeney or Mathis for the year or even a few games.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:12 AM    (permalink
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Andy dalton had 3400 and 20, but no way luck can do that everyone thinks hes too good already. TOO MUCH HYPE TO BE SUCCESSFUL
No one is saying he can't do that. But saying he's going to carry possibly the worst team in the league to a winning record, sounds very stupid when you actually think about it.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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Wayne still had 75 catches and 1,000 yards last year with garbage at QB. Has he really lost a step? I didn't really see the Colts much on TV last year but it seems with better QB production he can do something better than that statistically.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:19 AM    (permalink
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No one is saying he can't do that. But saying he's going to carry possibly the worst team in the league to a winning record, sounds very stupid when you actually think about it.
again, im not guaranteeing it, just not eliminating the possibility of an 8-8 team here. I dont think its out of the question they beat the bears week one, on paper are the bears heavy favorites? absolutely, but early season games are always kinda sloppy...lets say they beat them, that could go a LONG way towards a teams confidence and even get them out on a hot start. Like others said their roster is far from the greatest, but they also do have a new regime and schemes on both sides of the ball....jerry hughes, donald brown, maybe even vick ballard can step it up a bit and become difference makers finally. I wasnt and still am not a fan of hughes or brown, but they are facing a do or die portion of their career
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:24 AM    (permalink
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No one has "eliminated the possibility." Common sense and precedent just say it's just ludicrously unlikely. And then the examples you cited, which were the vast minority of cases where a rookie/first year starting QB "turned a team around," usually had other mitigating factors beyond just the QB.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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Anyway, in other QB news, John Skelton will get the start in Arizona's next game: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ion-isnt-over/

He's not officially the starter yet, but Kolb has been all kinds of terrible. I think it's time to admit that mistake and see where Skelton can take you.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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I'm close to saying gabbert will have a better year than luck. Gabby will have a better all around supporting cast. Just a thought
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:31 AM    (permalink
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Wayne still had 75 catches and 1,000 yards last year with garbage at QB. Has he really lost a step? I didn't really see the Colts much on TV last year but it seems with better QB production he can do something better than that statistically.
The numbers were ok but last year Garcon was pretty much the number 1 guy. Wayne also only scored one TD in the last eleven games which has to be a slight worry regardless of who the QB was.

He is by no means done and that is not what I was trying to get across, however I don't see him as being a guy who can carry a young receiving corps anymore.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:32 AM    (permalink
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again, im not guaranteeing it, just not eliminating the possibility of an 8-8 team here. I dont think its out of the question they beat the bears week one, on paper are the bears heavy favorites? absolutely, but early season games are always kinda sloppy...lets say they beat them, that could go a LONG way towards a teams confidence and even get them out on a hot start. Like others said their roster is far from the greatest, but they also do have a new regime and schemes on both sides of the ball....jerry hughes, donald brown, maybe even vick ballard can step it up a bit and become difference makers finally. I wasnt and still am not a fan of hughes or brown, but they are facing a do or die portion of their career
They aren't beating the Bears week one. I seriously can't think of any possible way that happens. The Colts don't have anyone to cover Brandon Marshall, I don't see them having a very good rush defense, and I think the Bears D-Line is going to be hitting Luck all day long. The Bears are currently 9-point favorites in that game and I expect them to cover that.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:33 AM    (permalink
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I loved Luck coming out of college. He showed the complete quarterbacking package at Stanford and I considered him to be an elite, generational prospect. In fact, to me, heís one of the two best quarterback prospects weíve seen since the turn of the millennium. And to compound the case for him, in terms of NFL readiness, heís as advanced as weíve seen. He was handling pro responsibilities in college. Diagnosing defenses, making smart line calls, holding safeties as he went through progressions and post-snap validations, etc. His footwork and mechanics are textbook, too. Heís a surefooted thrower that can manipulate muddied pockets and operate in tight spaces. He even did things like change arm slots and release points based on his throwing lanes and never suffered mechanical breakdowns in his natural motion. For his stage in the development process, thatís quite impressive. Luck got a lot of press as a Cardinal and continues to get it as a Colt, but it is deserved. He isnít just some kind of media-created monster. Thereís real substance behind him.

That said, itís foolish to expect him to lead Indianapolis to nine wins or more. In 2010, the Colts went 10-6. With Manning under center. One of the greatest, most polished quarterbacks this game has even seen. And the roster hasnít improved since then. As much as I love Luck, and believe in his tantalizing potential, Iím not about to believe he can equal Manningís feats in his rookie season. Manning covered a lot of holes and he covered them well. Toward the end of his run in Indianapolis, that roster was bordering on pathetic and Manning had to elevate more facets than one. Now, Luck will compensate for some of those deficiencies again and this team will improve, but not to the degree of one of the most prolific passers of all-time and not to the tune of nine or ten wins. I just donít see that. If I had to peg the Colts to a win total, Iíd put them at six. I could see them sweeping the Jaguars, stealing one from the Titans or another middle-of-the-road team, and showing up to beat a few bad teams.

If the Colts do manage to register a winning record though, Chuck Pagano would be the justified recipient of a whole bunch of credit. Because he would have to erase a bunch of defensive woes for this team to reach those heights.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:35 AM    (permalink
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They aren't beating the Bears week one. I seriously can't think of any possible way that happens. The Colts don't have anyone to cover Brandon Marshall, I don't see them having a very good rush defense, and I think the Bears D-Line is going to be hitting Luck all day long. The Bears are currently 9-point favorites in that game and I expect them to cover that.
You shouldn't make such statements. For as long as I can remember, I've never been able to feel comfortable with the Bears in any matchup. I always tell people "I feel like they can beat anyone, but they could also get beat BY anyone."
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:38 AM    (permalink
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Wayne still had 75 catches and 1,000 yards last year with garbage at QB. Has he really lost a step? I didn't really see the Colts much on TV last year but it seems with better QB production he can do something better than that statistically.
he looked good against the steelers, played a lot for a preseason game and luck targeted him often. His presence can only help those young TEs and WRs
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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The numbers were ok but last year Garcon was pretty much the number 1 guy. Wayne also only scored one TD in the last eleven games which has to be a slight worry regardless of who the QB was.

He is by no means done and that is not what I was trying to get across, however I don't see him as being a guy who can carry a young receiving corps anymore.
I wasn't trying to call you out. I just didn't get to see him play last year so I was looking for an assesment on his game at this time.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:39 AM    (permalink
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Like I've said before, keeping Wayne was a major coup for the Colts. He is pretty much the only established veteran presence on the entire offense right now.

Even if he can no longer be as physically dominant (which was never really his forte anyway,) he should help tie the offense together a little bit and aid in just about everyone's development.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:41 AM    (permalink
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They aren't beating the Bears week one. I seriously can't think of any possible way that happens. The Colts don't have anyone to cover Brandon Marshall, I don't see them having a very good rush defense, and I think the Bears D-Line is going to be hitting Luck all day long. The Bears are currently 9-point favorites in that game and I expect them to cover that.
maybe try to be a bit open to the possibility here? i said the bears are going to be heavy favorites but week one who the hell knows whats gonna happen. I didnt think there was any way in hell the ravens beat the steelers by 30+ points opening week last year either.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:44 AM    (permalink
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I wasn't trying to call you out. I just didn't get to see him play last year so I was looking for an assesment on his game at this time.
Yeah I know, I went back to see what I had written and realised it could have come across as me saying he was washed up.

I seen the Colts a few times last year, my brother is a Colts fan and the also played the Pats. He is still a pretty good route runner however he has lost a bit of explosion. I just don't think he can be a go to guy anymore. Losing a credible threat like Garcon on the other side will aslo hurt his value this year.
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:49 AM    (permalink
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Yeah I know, I went back to see what I had written and realised it could have come across as me saying he was washed up.

I seen the Colts a few times last year, my brother is a Colts fan and the also played the Pats. He is still a pretty good route runner however he has lost a bit of explosion. I just don't think he can be a go to guy anymore. Losing a credible threat like Garcon on the other side will aslo hurt his value this year.
one thing that will help him (and luck) is he rarely gets hurt, he never gets hit because he goes down right away....which is what they wanted to do with manning, just keep the ball moving and the offense up tempo
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Old 08-21-2012, 09:50 AM    (permalink
Bob Sanders Dreadlock
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btw i think caldwell was a terrible terrible head coach, a QB even if hes a rookie and a good coach can go such a long way to success. Remember the niners were bad just the year before they became NFC favorites all because of harbaugh? he didnt exactly clean house on what we saw as a less than stellar roster with painfully average QB play. Not saying pagano is that guy, but i definitely think hes going to be better than caldwell

I do think both luck and RG3 are going to find some success as rookies, theres been bad teams with good QB play and good coaches go 8-8 before i just dont get how the thought of them even approaching that is out of the realm of possibility or "beyond moronic"
The 49ers play in the NFC west that is all that really needs to be said.
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Old 08-21-2012, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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You shouldn't make such statements. For as long as I can remember, I've never been able to feel comfortable with the Bears in any matchup. I always tell people "I feel like they can beat anyone, but they could also get beat BY anyone."
I know there are no guarantees in the NFL and "on any given Sunday" any team can beat any other team. But the Colts game is in the top-three of my most confident games (St. Louis and home against Minnesota the other two). If I were the type to make sig bets, I would bet on this game.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin. †One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one. †Awesome. †Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks.†
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Old 08-21-2012, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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Andy dalton had 3400 and 20, but no way luck can do that everyone thinks hes too good already. TOO MUCH HYPE TO BE SUCCESSFUL
that's the stupidest thing i've read in a while. Nobody is saying that. Seriously.

Do people realize that this colts defense was awful last year? Their Oline leaves PLENTY to be desired. They have a rookie head coach. Their secondary is brutal.

Even if Luck goes for 5,000 and 40, the defense will just give up 6,000 and 45 in the air. People need to realize that it's such a stretch for this team to go 8-8 because the team in itself, is not very good.
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Old 08-21-2012, 10:14 AM    (permalink
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that's the stupidest thing i've read in a while. Nobody is saying that. Seriously.

Do people realize that this colts defense was awful last year? Their Oline leaves PLENTY to be desired. They have a rookie head coach. Their secondary is brutal.

Even if Luck goes for 5,000 and 40, the defense will just give up 6,000 and 45 in the air. People need to realize that it's such a stretch for this team to go 8-8 because the team in itself, is not very good.
sarcasm, about the andrew luck dick sucking being at an all time high.

All im saying is bad teams have gotten better in 1 year before. Change of scenery, change of personnel, change in scheme, change in coaching can make previous horrid players into decently serviceable ones. I really dont like defending the colts, its making me a little sick, all im saying is i think they could possibly surprise some people and if not they can possibly surprise some teams by not just laying down like it seems like they are expected to
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Old 08-21-2012, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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i understand change from year to year, but the talent on that colts team is still pretty bad, especially on defense. and that oline, ehhhhh. I'm just saying people who are freaking out at people saying the Colts won't win 8 games are being pretty absurd. I don't see how people are getting up in arms about it
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Old 08-21-2012, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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eh its good banter, im not getting up in arms, just think they could be better than expected. Prior to last year they werent #1 overall contenders, obviously mannings injury being more serious than expected was a curve ball for them and their roster holes were exploited but maybe some of those guys step it up this year now that they arent expected to live and die by manning. they all know they have a rookie QB, maybe that alone will help them. Last year it was they were expecting on having manning and when they didnt it was "uh oh, what now?" but imo at worst luck will at least be decent, and decent isnt something they had at all last year
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