Mock Draft 1.0 - 9/14/12

[coordinator0]

Warmack would be a good value pick but I don't think G or T is going to be a need by the time the draft comes. Once Reid gets healthy I think he will move into the starting lineup at RT or LG and that would give the Ravens a lineup of Oher/Osemele/Birk/Yanda/Reid or Oher/Reid/Birk/Yanda/Osemele. Assuming he plays well once he gets on the field spending that high of a pick on a OL wouldn't make sense. If he doesn't then I would be pretty happy with Warmack.

[kwilk103]

dont get the logan thomas hype at all, he is awful

[Caulibflower]

Favorite Seahawks mock pick ever. I would be so stoked if we drafted Keenan Allen. That would be perfect. He's going to go higher than 12, though. He could go top 5 with a strong season.

[georgiafan]

Did any other Uga players about make first round?

[Cigaro]

On Thomas versus Bray, I would have to go Bray. I have reservations about both, but Thomas seems far less ready for the pro game than Bray. Thomas has the advantage athletically, but Bray is a better quarterback as of now. That being said, both are big quarterbacks who are going to be drafted based more on potential than actual production.

[essential]

Scott, you finally gave the Bills a player I want. No, Thomas isn't ready, but Fitz is signed and Thomas can sit for a year, maybe two if really necessary while Gailey grooms him. It's a great scenario. We need to get the QB of the future on this roster in this draft.

[RaiderNation]

QB, Pass Rusher, or CB should be our 1st round pick this year. Jarvis Jones would be an ideal fit in our scheme

[Witten4HOF]

Originally Posted by RaiderNation

QB, Pass Rusher, or CB should be our 1st round pick this year. Jarvis Jones would be an ideal fit in our scheme

Jones is an ideal fit for any scheme, dude is a monster.

[PossibleCabbage]

I honestly don't think that the Packers should even look at a running back in the first round.

Before this season: in 13 games with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB, the Packers have averaged <3.0 YPC (removing QB carries), and in those games Aaron Rodgers has tallied a cumulative passer rating of 103.6. In 11 games with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB, the Packers have averaged >5.0 YPC (again removing QB carries), and in those games Aaron Rodgers has tallied a passer rating of 100.8.

Again considering only rushing yards accrued by players other than Rodgers, when the Packers have rushed for <60 yards the Rodgers has a passer rating of 98.8. When the Packers have rushed for 60-74 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 99.3, When the Packers have rushed for 75-99 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 111.4. When the Packers have rushed for 100-124 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 113.3. When the Packers have rushed for 125+ yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 101.8. Rodgers is 14-3 when the rest of the team runs for 75-99 yards, 9-3 when they run for 100-124 yards, and 8-2 when they run for 125+ yards.

I think, just philosophically, until Rodgers shows clear decline, the Packers should spend all of their premium draft resources towards either the defense or the passing game (including offensive linemen.) Since Green Bay's wins are strongly correlated with Rodgers' performance, but generally not correlated with either volume or efficiency running the ball, taking an RB in the first round just doesn't seem smart. If there's an RB who's clearly BPA and you can't trade down, if you're the Packers then you take him, but you absolutely don't take an RB high because you think you "need" one.

Bell's a fine prospect, but in terms of "need" picks I think they'd be much better off taking a DE or DB there.

[FUNBUNCHER]

If it isn't the 2nd coming of Bo Jackson, I don't see why the Pack would ever take a RB in the first round with Aaron Rodgers as their starting QB.

[prock]

Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage

I honestly don't think that the Packers should even look at a running back in the first round.

Before this season: in 13 games with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB, the Packers have averaged <3.0 YPC (removing QB carries), and in those games Aaron Rodgers has tallied a cumulative passer rating of 103.6. In 11 games with Aaron Rodgers starting at QB, the Packers have averaged >5.0 YPC (again removing QB carries), and in those games Aaron Rodgers has tallied a passer rating of 100.8.

Again considering only rushing yards accrued by players other than Rodgers, when the Packers have rushed for <60 yards the Rodgers has a passer rating of 98.8. When the Packers have rushed for 60-74 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 99.3, When the Packers have rushed for 75-99 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 111.4. When the Packers have rushed for 100-124 yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 113.3. When the Packers have rushed for 125+ yards, Rodgers has a passer rating of 101.8. Rodgers is 14-3 when the rest of the team runs for 75-99 yards, 9-3 when they run for 100-124 yards, and 8-2 when they run for 125+ yards.

I think, just philosophically, until Rodgers shows clear decline, the Packers should spend all of their premium draft resources towards either the defense or the passing game (including offensive linemen.) Since Green Bay's wins are strongly correlated with Rodgers' performance, but generally not correlated with either volume or efficiency running the ball, taking an RB in the first round just doesn't seem smart. If there's an RB who's clearly BPA and you can't trade down, if you're the Packers then you take him, but you absolutely don't take an RB high because you think you "need" one.

Bell's a fine prospect, but in terms of "need" picks I think they'd be much better off taking a DE or DB there.

So just not on a running back or quarterback then?

[PossibleCabbage]

Originally Posted by prock

So just not on a running back or quarterback then?

Right now, in terms of "need" for Green Bay I would put DE, S, CB, ILB, C, OT, OLB, DT, and OG as better value picks than RB for Green Bay.

If an RB is there and he's BPA, you trade the pick or you take him. But if there's an RB and a non-RB/non-QB with the same grade at the top of your board, you should probably the other guy.

In terms of where Green Bay should be picking, I kind of like William Gholston as the pick. He'd be pedestrian as a 43 end, but could be a great 5-tech. Reminds me of Wilkerson, honestly.

[Leon Sandcastle]

Like that you've mocked a QB to the Bills Scott. Would rather have Geno, Bray or Wilson over Logan Thomas though.

[Pat Sims 90]

The Bengals need a pass rusher way more then a RB at this point.

[Bengals78]

Originally Posted by Pat Sims 90

The Bengals need a pass rusher way more then a RB at this point.

Yeah. I wont really be upset with Lattimore but we need a DE so bad it is painful. And if Thompson or Still dont step up soon, a NT type.

[nepg]

Originally Posted by vidae

Fantastic pick for KC Scott. A+++++. Tyler Wilson is my second favorite QB in this "class" and I would kill for him in KC.

Wilson is under 6'2? Chiefs won't draft him.

[vidae]

Originally Posted by nepg

Wilson is under 6'2? Chiefs won't draft him.

It's become very clear to anyone that can read that you have no idea what the Chiefs will do.

[bucfan12]

I wouldn't give the Bucs a DT that early. Michael Buchannon is someone that they could use. With the questionable health of Dequan Bowers and Michael Bennett being an FA, they could use some pass rush and Buchannon is, to me, a top notch prospect. I'd put him in the class of Aldon Smith. He's a freak of an athlete. He'll add more bulk at a 6'6 frame, he could do it easily.

Either that, or Jonathon Banks, CB Missippi State. Might be the most underrated CB Prospect this year.

[descendency]

Missing out on Barrett Jones by 1 pick? FML.

[Leon Sandcastle]

Is Tyler Wilson under 6'2? I really want to get to the bottom of this. He's listed at 6'3 but reports out of the Manning QB camp said he and Barkley were about the same height.

Now Barkley is listed at 6'2 but looks smaller.

Here's a picture of Tyler Wilson with Razorbacks WR Brandon Mitchell who's listed at 6'4.

http://cmsimg.montgomeryadvertiser.c...n-Alabama-game

I command you measurement whiz's of draftcountdown.com to get to the bottom of this. Is Wilson 6'3, 6'2 or 6'1?

[Shane P. Hallam]

Originally Posted by Wide Right

Is Tyler Wilson under 6'2? I really want to get to the bottom of this. He's listed at 6'3 but reports out of the Manning QB camp said he and Barkley were about the same height.

Now Barkley is listed at 6'2 but looks smaller.

Here's a picture of Tyler Wilson with Razorbacks WR Brandon Mitchell who's listed at 6'4.

http://cmsimg.montgomeryadvertiser.c...n-Alabama-game

I command you measurement whiz's of draftcountdown.com to get to the bottom of this. Is Wilson 6'3, 6'2 or 6'1?

Hopefully he will come to the Senior Bowl and we can answer that question! My guess is he ends up 6'2 1/8, or a little less.

[YotoJets007]

Originally Posted by Wide Right

Is Tyler Wilson under 6'2? I really want to get to the bottom of this. He's listed at 6'3 but reports out of the Manning QB camp said he and Barkley were about the same height.

Now Barkley is listed at 6'2 but looks smaller.

Here's a picture of Tyler Wilson with Razorbacks WR Brandon Mitchell who's listed at 6'4.

http://cmsimg.montgomeryadvertiser.c...n-Alabama-game

I command you measurement whiz's of draftcountdown.com to get to the bottom of this. Is Wilson 6'3, 6'2 or 6'1?

In body language, Mitchell looked like he was relaxed down and Wilson firmed up. That ought to about 2 inches adjustment. It is a good chance that with body straight up for height measure at the combine, Mitchell could be 6 3 and 6 2 for Wilson.

That is guesswork.

[keylime_5]

I don't think the Cardinals are gonna pick top 5, let alone #1, haha. Aren't they 2-0 now?

Browns pick I like, seems like Mingo is a popular pick for the Browns this early. Thankfully though the Browns defensive line and pass rush is really really good this year so far. That doesn't mean they shouldn't/won't take a top DE because if they can get one then their young D-Line can be an elite, championship caliber unit if they add a 10+ sack/year guy.

I think the Browns' biggest need is at cornerback. They certainly could use a really good linebacker (Jarvis Jones on the Browns defense would be lethal, though I'm not sure he's an ideal fit with what Jauron likes to do at LB) and a good free safety as well. If they don't go with defense in round one next year, then it would only be because there is a top offensive playmaker at WR sitting there that is too good to pass up. I know they like the young group of Greg Little, Josh Gordon, and Travis Benjamin, but no true #1 elite playmaker will have emerged by next April it doesn't look like and they lack a group of pass catchers as talented as what teams like New England, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay, the Giants, etc. have to throw to.

[scottyboy]

Originally Posted by Caddy

I think DT is a solid choice for the Bucs. Roy Miller is good, but all he does is clog the middle. I'd love a new DT or an extra DE which you really can't have too many of. Especially when your current backups are (Bowers/IR, Teo'Nesheim and George Johnson)

George Johnson rules, you shut your mouth.

Also, can't complain about the Giants pick. At this point, any D player that isn't a linebacker, or an O-lineman is a good pick

[Babylon]

This draft looks weak. Granted a lot of them do this time of the year but don't see anyone at the top to get too excited about. Depth at O-line and QB but just don't see the quality.