Join Date: Sep 2012
Eazy Picks Week 3
Got hot last week, lets see if I can keep it rolling
Week 2 record
San Francisco (2-0) at Minnesota (1-1)
Its hard to find an edge in this game for Minnesota. The strength of the Vikings is their run game, but good luck against Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and the 49er defense. They have shut Peterson down in the past and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it against. WR Percy Harvin is great after the catch, but the 49ers defense is too fast and tackles too well to get beat by him. Christian Ponder has been having success working the ball to TE Kyle Rudolph, but with Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and Dashon Goldson covering the deep middle, it will be hard to work the seam. The Vikings don’t have the necessary depth at receiver to spread out the 49er defense, and their offensive line could have a hard time keeping Christian Ponder off his back.
The Vikings have a solid run defense and have a good shot at slowing down the 49er ground game, but they will get worn down if the offense can’t keep them off the field. The 49ers have the depth at receiver to spread the field and create mismatches with a weak Minnesota secondary, and Alex Smith is playing at a very high level right now. OT Joe Staley should be able to keep DE Jared Allen in check. It would take a weak effort for the 49ers to lose this game, and this team has always played hard under Harbaugh.
SU Pick: 49ers
ATS Pick: 49ers -7.5
St. Louis (1-1) at Chicago (1-1)
The Bears will have had 10 days to lament another loss to the Packers and will look to take out their frustrations on the Rams, who are riding into town on a high note. QB Sam Bradford had a sensational game against the Redskins, but it’s unlikely he will have nearly the same success against the Bears. The Rams’ offensive line is banged up, and that’s not a good thing when you are about to play against DE Julius Peppers and DT Henry Melton. With HB Steven Jackson missing a groin injury, Sam Bradford is going to have a hard time getting into a good passing rhythm against Chicago’s physical defensive backs.
Jay Cutler couldn’t be more happy to be playing with WR Brandon Marshall again, but he got a little out of control last week. After calling out the Packers’ DBs during the week, he proceeded to sling the ball all game and threw 4 picks and took 7 sacks. St. Louis is averaging a league-worst 5.5 yards per carry right now, and the Bears need to get back to their identity and run the ball. They will be without the services of Matt Forte, but Michael Bush is a very capable replacement. Pounding the ball between the tackles will take pressure off Cutler and open 1-on-1 matchups on the outside, where Marshall and WR Alshon Jeffery have major size advantages on the Rams’ fiesty corners. If they can force the Rams to crowd the box, it will also open up opportunities to get the ball to WR Devin Hester in open space, where he can make big plays.
SU Pick: Bears
ATS Pick: Bears -8
Buffalo (1-1) at Browns (0-2)
The Bills showed great resiliency last week after a dismal opener, and it is key that they win this game with the Patriots and 49ers next up on their schedule. The Browns, however, have not gone down easy in either of their losses. It will be strength-against-strength in the trenches as Browns’ LT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack square off with DE Mario Williams and DT Marcellus Dareus. If the Bills can get some pressure on rookie QB Brandon Weeden, they should have opportunities to create turnovers.
Rookie OT Cody Glenn did a great job last week against OLB Tamba Hali, and the Browns will look for him to keep setting the edge. HB CJ Spiller has been on fire the first 2 weeks, and will look to break some more long runs against a Cleveland defense that lacks speed. CB Joe Haden is suspended, and Ryan Fitzpatrick will try to take advantage and get the ball to WR Stevie Johnson.
SU Pick: Bills
ATS Pick: Bills -2.5
Tampa Bay (1-1) at Dallas (1-1)
The Cowboys are going to want to put on a show for their fans in their home opener after last week’s forgettable performance. The Giants shredded the Bucs’ secondary last week, so Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten have to be thinking big game. Veteran FS Ronde Barber will be lurking, waiting for Romo to make a mistake. The Bucs’ run defense has been very stout so far, so it will be interesting to see if the Cowboys can get HB DeMarco Murray going.
WR Vincent Jackson has been off to a great start, but the Cowboys have two big corners in Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr who can both match up well with him. LT Donald Penn is going to have his hands full trying to block OLB DeMarcus Ware, while OLB Anthony Spencer will look to have a big game against RT Anthony Dotson. The Buccaneers will need to get their run game going to slow down the Dallas pass-rushers and open up the middle of the field in the passing game. The Buccaneers are coming off a heartbreaking loss, and it will be interesting to see if they can get up for this game.
SU Pick: Cowboys
ATS Pick: Cowboys -7
Detroit (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2)
The Titans have had an uninspiring start to the year and need to find a way to beat the Lions to avoid an 0-3 start. Chris Johnson is off to a poor start and could have a hard time getting out of the backfield against Detroit’s attacking defense. The interior of the Titan line has been struggling, which could mean a big game for DT Ndamukong Suh. It could be a long day for QB Jake Locker if the Titans can’t find a way to slow down the Lions’ pass-rushers. Their passing game hasn’t looked too good so far, but the Titan receivers do match up pretty well with Detroit’s defensive backs.
As always, WR Calvin Johnson will create matchup problems in the secondary. Tight ends have been very successful against the Titan defense thus far in the season, and MLB Colin McCarthy is injured, so Brandon Pettigrew could be primed for a big game. The Lions hope getting HB Mike LeShoure back from suspension will add a new dimension to their offense.
SU Pick: Lions
ATS Pick: Lions -3
Jacksonville (0-2) at Indianapolis (1-1)
Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck will meet for the first time, but it is likely a matchup that we will see a lot of in the coming years. The two rebuilding teams are pretty evenly matched, and the game could easily come down to which young signal caller plays better. The Jaguars will be looking for a big game from HB Maurice Jones-Drew against the Colts’ vulnerable run defense. If they can keep Robert Mathis off Gabbert, he should be able to find his big receivers downfield.
This game should be a good test for Andrew Luck. The Jaguars defense is nothing like the Chicago defense he struggled against, but better than Minnesota. There won’t be any major mismatches for the Colts to exploit, so it will be on Luck to just play a good game. Austin Collie will be back in the lineup to give Luck another good option in the passing game.
SU Pick: Jaguars
ATS Pick: Jaguars +3
New York Jets (1-1) at Miami (1-1)
The Jets are expecting CB Darrelle Revis to be back in the lineup this week, which should give the defense a big boost. For QB Ryan Tannehill, he has to be wondering who he is going to throw the ball to. The Dolphins may have the worst WR corps in the league, and the Jets may have the best secondary in the league. A big game from Reggie Bush is probably the Miami’s only hope on offense. If they can’t get the run game going, Tannehill will likely struggle against Rex Ryan’s defense.
Miami’s defense has been good against the run so far, but the Jets will try to establish their run game with Shonn Green and Bilal Powell. Mark Sanchez will be glad to have TE Dustin Keller back in the lineup, and will look to rebound from a poor outing against the Steelers. The Jets will be looking to win this game off defense, so if Sanchez can just be efficient and not make mistakes, it should be enough for them to win.
SU Pick: Jets
ATS Pick: Jets -2.5
Kansas City (0-2) at New Orleans (0-2)
There aren’t two teams who have gotten off to more disappointing starts this season, and both are desperate to get back on track. The Chiefs’ defense has been getting ripped apart, and the going won’t get any easier playing against Drew Brees in the Super Dome. Getting CB Brandon Flowers back from injury should give the team a boost, but the whole unit needs to play a lot better if they’re going to slow down the Saints attack.
As bad as the Kansas City defense has been, the Saints’ has probably been worse. HBs Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis will look to soften the Saints up on the ground and take pressure off QB Matt Cassel. The Saints will want to run the Chiefs off the field, while the Chiefs will try to slow down the pace of the game.
SU Pick: Saints
ATS Pick: Chiefs +9
Cincinnati (1-1) at Washington (1-1)
The Redskins literally had insult added to injury last week against the Rams. Two of their best defenders, OLB Brian Orakpo and DE Adam Carriker, both sustained season-ending injuries prior to the Rams’ pulling off a come-from-behind win. With his defense beat up, the pressure is going to be on Robert Griffin to put together a big game and lead his team to a win in their home-opener. The Bengal defense has struggled mightily so far, but they have a lot of speed on defense and could match up favorably against the Redskins’ spread out attack. HB Alfred Morris primarily runs between the tackles and could struggle against DTs Geno Atkins and Domata Peko and MLB Rey Maluaga.
Andy Dalton should feel plenty comfortable in the pocket against the Redskins’ beat up defense, and have time to pick the Washington defense apart. The Redskins will probably stick CB DeAngelo Hall on WR AJ Green and hope for the best, but they are going to have a hard time matching up with TE Jermaine Gresham and the rest of the Bengals weapons with CB Josh Wilson and S Brandon Merriweather both nursing injuries.
SU Pick: Bengals
ATS Pick: Bengals +3.5
Philadelphia (2-0) at Arizona (2-0)
The Eagles and Cardinals both have to be pumped out after pulling out wins against two of the league’s elite teams, setting up a meeting of undefeateds. Dating back to last year, these are two of the hottest teams in the league, and the Cardinals got the best of the Eagles last year. The Cardinal defense has looked strong so far this year, with their defensive line controlling the middle of the field. The Eagles offense is all about attacking the perimeter of defenses, so it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle their speed.
The Eagles defense has been light out this year, with quarterbacks averaging only 4.5 yards per attempt against them. As much as QB Kevin Kolb would like to get revenge against his former team, he is going to have a hard time against this secondary and pass-rush. WR Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best in the business, but with CB Nmandhi Asomugha covering him, he may not be a huge factor. The Cardinals best chance on offense will be to get their run game going with Beanie Wells.
SU Pick: Eagles
ATS Pick: Eagles -3
Atlanta (2-0) at San Diego (2-0)
The Falcons have been very impressive in the first 2 weeks, but they will have to travel to the west coast on a short week and face off with an undefeated Charger team. The Chargers’ defense has been extremely stout against the run, so it will be interesting to see if the Falcons’ stick to their power running game with Michael Turner. CBs Antoine Cason and Quentin Jammer will have their hands full with WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones, and it would certainly help if Shaun Phillips and Melvin Ingram can generate some pressure on QB Matt Ryan.
Phillip Rivers is off to a good start this season, and he will need to be more careful with the ball than Peyton Manning was last week against Atlanta. The offense should get a boost with TE Antonio Gates and HB Ryan Mathews returning from injury, but the offensive line could be overmatched. DE John Abraham could be in for a big game working against LT Michael Harris.
SU Pick: Falcons
ATS Pick: Falcons +3
Houston (2-0) at Denver (1-1)
The Texans have looked great this season, but this will be their first real test after their handling of the Dolphins and Titans. The Texan defense has been suffocating since Wade Phillips took over as defensive coordinator, and Peyton Manning has to be hating the schedule makers for giving him such a tough slate of defensive teams to open the season against. Willis McGahee could have a hard time finding running room against the Texans’ swarming front 7, and CBs Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson have the size and skills to match up with Demaryus Thomas and Eric Decker.
The Texans love to run the ball with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, and they should have success against a speedy Bronco defense that is at its best in passing situations. By pounding the ball between the tackles, the Texans can slow down pass-rushers OLB Von Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil. WR Andre Johnson vs. CB Champ Bailey should be a good battle.
SU Pick: Texans
ATS Pick: Texans -1
Pittsburgh (1-1) at Oakland (0-2)
The Raiders look like an absolute mess right now. Their offense is out of sync, their defense looks hapless, and they just got blown out by Miami of all teams. With the Steelers coming to town, common sense says there’s no way the Raiders win this game. However, the Raiders have got into the strange habit of losing badly in games they should win, and coming up with victories in games they seemingly have no business even competing in. If the Raiders somehow pull it off, it wouldn’t be the first time in recent years they upset the Steelers when no one saw it coming. That being said, it’s hard to see how the Raiders are going to come out on top here.
The Raiders are injured at the CB position and couldn’t stop Ryan Tannehill from getting the ball to WR Brian Hartline, so it’s hard to see how they are going to stop QB Ben Roethlisberger and WRs Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. If the Raiders’ front four can dominate the Steelers’ offensive line, maybe they can disrupt the Pittsburgh passing game. The Steelers may be without OLB James Harrison and SS Troy Polamalu, which gives the Raiders a glimmer of hope on offense. Still, the Raider offense has looked inept and it’s going to be hard to get the run game going against the Steelers. RT Willie Brown could get abused by OLB Lamarr Woodley, and QB Carson Palmer is going to have a hard time getting into rhythm against Dick Lebeau’s defense.
SU Pick: Steelers
ATS Pick: Steelers -3.5
New England (1-1) at Baltimore (1-1)
Not only is this an AFC Championship rematch, but a contest that will be pitting two teams coming off frustrating losses. This will be a good test for New England’s revamped defense. They have had a tough time stopping Ray Rice in the past, and the Ravens need to make sure they don’t get too in love with their passing game and keep giving Rice a healthy dose of carries. The Ravens are usually great at home, and Joe Flacco will look to forget his week 2 performance and play like he did against the Bengals week 1.
The Patriots will be without TE Aaron Hernandez on offense, and Brady is going to need to be on his A game against Ray Lewis and the Baltimore defense. HB Stevan Ridley has gotten off to a good start, but he probably won’t be very productive against the Ravens. WR Wes Welker has not been contributing much so far, and this would be a good game for him to make an impact. The Ravens have enough athletes at LB and in the secondary to match up decently with the Patriots’ skill players. DE Calais Campbell dominated against the Patriots’ offensive line last week, and they now have to go up against DE Haloti Ngata. If the Ravens can get their OLBs to provide a good edge-rush, it could be a long day for Brady.
SU Pick: Ravens
ATS Pick: Ravens -2.5
Green Bay (1-1) at Seattle (1-1)
There’s no denying that the Seattle is one of the toughest places to come play. The Packers will be coming off 10 days rest and need to make sure they don’t come out sloppy like the Cowboys last week. The Seahawks have a great secondary, but when Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense is clicking, they are nearly impossible to stop. The Seahawks need to find a way to get to Rodgers and not let him get into a rhythm and take the crowd out of the game.
The Packer defense looked they were back in Super Bowl form last week against Chicago, which could mean trouble for rookie QB Russell Wilson. The Seahawks have to be happy LT Russell Okung is back from injury with Clay Matthews coming to town, as it is essential the protect Wilson. The Packers have some serious ball hawks in their secondary, so the Seahawks will need to get HB Marshawn Lynch going to take some pressure off their young signal caller.
SU Pick: Packers
ATS Pick: Packers -3
Starting this week, Im gonna do 5 locks of the week.
SU Locks: 49ers, Bears, Cowboys, Texans, Saints
ATS Locks: 49ers, Bears, Texans, Bengals, Jets
Last edited by Eazy Picks : 09-21-2012 at 01:01 AM.