Draft Countdown Forums

Go Back   Draft Countdown Forums > Draft Countdown Forums > Pro Football

Pro Football Discuss professional football.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-21-2012, 05:23 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
That first statement is blatantly false, maybe the coaches feel more comfortable with Beason and Anderson because they're veterans, but Kuechly was an outstanding pass coverage LB in college and played well in that area in camp and preseason. There has been nothing that he has done so far in the NFL that would suggest that he doesn't cover all that well.
Just because he was a good pass coverage LB in college doesn't mean he will be one in the NFL.

And for the record, I thought he was a very overrated pass coverage LB at Boston College. I saw him getting beaten time and again by TEs and WRs in zone coverage.


Quote:
As to your second point meh, look at a division like the AFC East Kyle Love, Sione Pouha, Kyle Williams, and Paul Soliai were all picked later than the 3rd round, and all of them are above average DT's. Geno Atkins was a 4th round pick a couple of years ago, and pass rushing specialists like Crick and Wolfe lasted past the 1st round this season. Even some quality DT's have hit the market in the past few years like Red Bryant, Jason Jones, Kendall Langford, Barry Cofield, and Cullen Jenkins. The Panthers have had their chance to grab some of them, and just because they didn't address it with their first round pick this year doesn't mean that they missed out on their only opportunity to add a quality DT.
Look at the elite pass rushers (DT, DE, or OLB) in the NFL today:

- Jason Pierre Paul: #15 pick in 2010 draft
- Justin Smith: #4 pick in 2001 draft
- Ndamukong Suh: #2 pick in 2010 draft
- Calais Campbell: #50 pick in 2008 draft
- Chris Long: #2 pick in 2008 draft
- JJ Watt: #11 pick in 2011 draft
- Clay Matthews: #26 pick in 2009 draft
- Brian Orakpo: #13 pick in 2009 draft
- Lamarr Woodley: #46 pick in 2007 draft
- Jason Babin: #27 pick in 2004 draft
- Aldon Smith: #7 pick in 2011 draft
- Dwight Freeney: #11 pick in 2002 draft
- Von Miller: #2 pick in 2011 draft
- Ryan Kerrigan: #16 pick in 2011 draft
- Haloti Ngata: #12 pick in 2006 draft
- DeMarcus Ware: #11 pick in 2005 draft
- Terrell Suggs: #10 pick in 2003 draft
- Julius Peppers: #2 pick in 2002 draft


I feel pretty confident in calling that list a mostly complete list of all of the NFL's best pass rushing DTs, DEs, or OLBs. Do you see something in common there? The vast majority were selected very high in the draft. Only four of those players I listed were picked outside of the top 16. To acquire elite pass-rushing talent, you simply have to pick one of the guys with a high draft pick. If you do have that high draft pick, it makes sense to spend it on a more valuable, harder-to-obtain position (DT, DE, 34 OLB) than a less valuable, easier to obtain position (ILB). Because you might not have that opportunity to select the elite pass rusher again. Those beastly Pierre-Paul / Ngata / Ware types don't come around very often, and when you have the *opportunity* to grab one, you had better take advantage of it.


Quote:
Kuechly was a safer and probably going to turn out as a great pick. Cox and Brockers are much bigger risks, and had they been on the field last night instead of Kuechly the outcome most likely would have been exactly the same.
Maybe the outcome is the same, maybe it's not as bad. But in the end, a good DT/DE is always more valuable, and harder to find, than a good LB. In the long run, the right choice in the 1st round is almost always the defensive lineman, even if the DL pick is not always the safest, because the payout is always better.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2012, 05:43 PM    (permalink
K Train
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 6,966
Reputation: 800519
K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.K Train is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

james harrison is still a top pass rusher, and hes still better than woodley. Just throwin out a quick homer shout out there though lol, the james harrisons and adalius thomas's of the world are the exception

you also left jared allen off, hes a big one and was a 4th rounder. Id say trent cole too, 5th rounder, tamba hali 20th overall...just to add to your list a bit

Quote:
To acquire elite pass-rushing talent, you simply have to pick one of the guys with a high draft pick. If you do have that high draft pick, it makes sense to spend it on a more valuable, harder-to-obtain position (DT, DE, 34 OLB)
you also dont want to end up with jamaal anderson, derrick harvey, justin harrell, gaines adams (RIP), kentwan balmer...ect. if a tough thing to project, those guys were all top notch recent prospects as well
__________________
E]

Last edited by K Train : 09-21-2012 at 05:46 PM.
K Train is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2012, 05:56 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,207
Reputation: 2050333
cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
Just because he was a good pass coverage LB in college doesn't mean he will be one in the NFL.

And for the record, I thought he was a very overrated pass coverage LB at Boston College. I saw him getting beaten time and again by TEs and WRs in zone coverage.

You need to start actually watching games because the above is not true, as is your point that Kuechly played poorly last night.


Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post

Look at the elite pass rushers (DT, DE, or OLB) in the NFL today:

- Jason Pierre Paul: #15 pick in 2010 draft
- Justin Smith: #4 pick in 2001 draft
- Ndamukong Suh: #2 pick in 2010 draft
- Calais Campbell: #50 pick in 2008 draft
- Chris Long: #2 pick in 2008 draft
- JJ Watt: #11 pick in 2011 draft
- Clay Matthews: #26 pick in 2009 draft
- Brian Orakpo: #13 pick in 2009 draft
- Lamarr Woodley: #46 pick in 2007 draft
- Jason Babin: #27 pick in 2004 draft
- Aldon Smith: #7 pick in 2011 draft
- Dwight Freeney: #11 pick in 2002 draft
- Von Miller: #2 pick in 2011 draft
- Ryan Kerrigan: #16 pick in 2011 draft
- Haloti Ngata: #12 pick in 2006 draft
- DeMarcus Ware: #11 pick in 2005 draft
- Terrell Suggs: #10 pick in 2003 draft
- Julius Peppers: #2 pick in 2002 draft


I feel pretty confident in calling that list a mostly complete list of all of the NFL's best pass rushing DTs, DEs, or OLBs. Do you see something in common there? The vast majority were selected very high in the draft. Only four of those players I listed were picked outside of the top 16. To acquire elite pass-rushing talent, you simply have to pick one of the guys with a high draft pick. If you do have that high draft pick, it makes sense to spend it on a more valuable, harder-to-obtain position (DT, DE, 34 OLB) than a less valuable, easier to obtain position (ILB). Because you might not have that opportunity to select the elite pass rusher again. Those beastly Pierre-Paul / Ngata / Ware types don't come around very often, and when you have the *opportunity* to grab one, you had better take advantage of it.
Again we weren't debating any of those caliber rushers when we were talking about the 2 DT's. Out of the 2 we were talking about only one projects as being a consistent impact pass rusher. Certainly Fletcher Cox and Michael Brockers were not the equivalent pass rushing prospects as the majority of those guys were. Try to stay on point.

I could make a similar list showing all the best LB's being high picks (Lewis, Urlacher, Mayo, Derrick Johnson, Willis, Cushing, Timmons) it's a pointless exercise because that's how it is with every position. For every Bowman or Lee there is an Allen or Cole as a counter example.

Every position is relative on the field to the other positions around them, How good did the Eagles look last year with a great DL and CB's, but their linebackers and safeties still sucked? We like to put a premium on certain positions, but again those positions by themselves can't affect the totality of a defense. In reality if you draft a LBer with All Pro potential with a high pick, it's likely going to be a net positive when it's all said and done when teams solidify the weak spots around them.

You're bitter because it's obvious you wanted the Panthers to pick a DL, and they didn't so it's still a weakness. It still shouldn't affect the way you evaluate Kuechly because of it. Kuechly played well last night.

Last edited by cmarq83 : 09-21-2012 at 05:59 PM.
cmarq83 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2012, 06:06 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
You need to start actually watching games because the above is not true, as is your point that Kuechly played poorly last night.
I watched the game. He was not playing well by any stretch of the imagination.

Quote:
Again we weren't debating any of those caliber rushers to those guys we were talking about 2 DT's and out of the 2 we were talking about only one projects as being a consistent impact pass rusher. Certainly Fletcher Cox and Michael Brockers were not the equivalent pass rushing prospects as the majority of those guys were. Try to stay on point.
Actually, Cox was rated the top pass-rushing DT in this draft class, and given high marks by almost all of the draft analysts. He could certainly develop into a top-10 pass rushing DT in the NFL, and that was the consensus among analysts.

Brockers was considered more of a developmental guy but a high-ceiling pick nonetheless. And with DL, it's all about the ceiling. You're gambling on high reward. Whereas with LB, there is more safety invovled, but an elite ILB will never impact your defense as much as an elite pass rusher will.



Quote:
I could make a similar list showing all the best LB's being high picks (Lewis, Urlacher, Mayo, Derrick Johnson, Willis, Cushing, Timmons) it's a pointless exercise because that's how it is with every position. For every Bowman or Lee there is an Allen or Cole as a counter example.
Question: if you had to choose, would you rather have Brian Urlacher or Julius Peppers?

Jerod Mayo or Vince Wilfork?

Patrick Willis or Justin Smith?

JJ Watt or Brian Cushing?

I can tell you what the General Managers of those teams would say. They'd pick the stud pass rusher over the ILB every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Remember last year when Larry Grant filled in for Patrick Willis and the defense didn't skip a beat?

On the other hand, if you remember correctly, one of the reasons Lovie Smith flew to Carolina with millions of dollars in his briefcase to personally court Julius Peppers at the start of free agency in 2010 was because despite those great LBs the Bears had, their Cover-2 defense sucked without elite pass rushers. From 2007-2009, their DL were all mediocre, and despite having Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher (Urlacher missed '09 but played in 07 and 08), they weren't an elite defense again until they got Julius Peppers.

Quote:
Every position is relative on the field to the other positions around them, How good did the Eagles look last year with a great DL and CB's, but their DL and secondary still sucked? We like to put a premium on certain positions, but again those positions by themselves can't affect the totality of a defense. In reality if you draft a LBer with All Pro potential with a high pick, it's likely going to be a net positive when it's all said and done when teams solidify the weak spots around them.
The problem with the Eagles last year isn't that they had average LBs, but that they were basically using complete scrubs. Of course you can't have flat-out incompetent scrubs manning the position. But you can fill in those LB spots with "average" players and as long as you have an elite DL, you can have a top-10 defense.

For an example, look at the New York Giants. Who do they have at LB? That DL does all the work and they can plug guys in like Chase Blackburn, who was a schoolteacher before he was signed by the Giants.


The #1 problem with selecting an ILB in the first round is that you are *passing* on the opportunity to obtain elite DL talent - talent that would be next to impossible to get outside of that first round of the draft. Sure, that DL talent could bust, and the ILB might be safer, but in the end, unless you have elite DL talent, you will never have a top-10 defense. So you have to get it somehow. You have to gamble on that risk in the first round. You can make all the safe LB picks you want, but then you just end up with a great LB corps and a mostly average defense.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2012, 06:09 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by K Train View Post
james harrison is still a top pass rusher, and hes still better than woodley. Just throwin out a quick homer shout out there though lol, the james harrisons and adalius thomas's of the world are the exception

you also left jared allen off, hes a big one and was a 4th rounder. Id say trent cole too, 5th rounder, tamba hali 20th overall...just to add to your list a bit



you also dont want to end up with jamaal anderson, derrick harvey, justin harrell, gaines adams (RIP), kentwan balmer...ect. if a tough thing to project, those guys were all top notch recent prospects as well
Sure you can draft busts, but you gotta take a risk to get something in return.

If you don't pick a DL with your first round pick, and only stick to "safe" picks, you will never get that Jason Pierre Paul, or JJ Watt, or Aldon Smith, unless you get lucky and wait until one of those guys hits free agency, and then you have to spend a ton of cash on him, and that's AFTER you have successfully convinced him to join your team (Julius Peppers / Reggie White / Justin Smith).

And if you don't have elite DL, you are simply not having a top-10 defense. It's not happening. It's a necessary evil to "gamble" on these guys in the first round.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2012, 06:24 PM    (permalink
Bengals78
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Allons-y!
Posts: 9,542
Reputation: 2201884
Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

JJ Watt was super safe.
He was practically a lock
__________________

bonekrusher
The Twitters
themaninblack
Bengals78 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2012, 01:10 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,207
Reputation: 2050333
cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
Actually, Cox was rated the top pass-rushing DT in this draft class, and given high marks by almost all of the draft analysts. He could certainly develop into a top-10 pass rushing DT in the NFL, and that was the consensus among analysts.

Brockers was considered more of a developmental guy but a high-ceiling pick nonetheless. And with DL, it's all about the ceiling. You're gambling on high reward. Whereas with LB, there is more safety invovled, but an elite ILB will never impact your defense as much as an elite pass rusher will.
I'm well aware of what they were viewed as around draft time. This is a draft website isn't it?

The point is Kuechly was/is an outstanding linebacker prospect, probably the best since Willis. Cox and Brockers were not equivalent DT prospects, and certainly were not the same kind of prospects a lot of the guys on your list were. I will never fault teams for picking a quality player with a high pick regardless of position (besides the obvious positions). If you look across the league at successful teams most of them have vastly different rosters with plenty of quality at the "less" important positions, and the only real requirement is that you have a franchise QB.

Do you think the 49ers front office kicks themselves because they picked Willis when they could have gambled a bit more and had Revis? Probably not. However, how do you think the Texans and the Falcons feel after reaching for pass rushers Amobi Akoye and Jamaal Anderson before the much safer and now perennial all pro Willis?

Brockers is incredibly raw and Cox is completely washed out any time he is doubled. They represented a far more significant risk. Now if the scouting department was comfortable with them after reviewing their film, seeing how they would fit in their scheme, and gave them a high grade then fine, by all means pick them. I'm not trying to make this an indictment on Brockers or Cox, both of whom I was hoping would fall to the Pats. However, the notion of drafting somebody high just for the sake of the position they play is moronic. That is how disasters like Everette Brown, Jimmy Clausen, and Armanti Edwards happen.

That's why the draft doesn't go QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, DE, DE, DE, DE, DE, DE, LT, LT, LT, LT, LT, LT, CB, CB, CB, CB, CB, CB ect.

Every position plays a role in winning games, and preferably you try to get as many good guys to fit all those positions as possible. It's by reaching for guys and missing on picks that creates massive holes like the Panthers have at DT. The best way to avoid that is by picking guys who are extremely likely to be good when you have the opportunity to get them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post

Question: if you had to choose, would you rather have Brian Urlacher or Julius Peppers?

Jerod Mayo or Vince Wilfork?

Patrick Willis or Justin Smith?

JJ Watt or Brian Cushing?

I can tell you what the General Managers of those teams would say. They'd pick the stud pass rusher over the ILB every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Remember last year when Larry Grant filled in for Patrick Willis and the defense didn't skip a beat?

On the other hand, if you remember correctly, one of the reasons Lovie Smith flew to Carolina with millions of dollars in his briefcase to personally court Julius Peppers at the start of free agency in 2010 was because despite those great LBs the Bears had, their Cover-2 defense sucked without elite pass rushers. From 2007-2009, their DL were all mediocre, and despite having Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher (Urlacher missed '09 but played in 07 and 08), they weren't an elite defense again until they got Julius Peppers.
What a pointless argument. That's not the choice that you make in the draft, or anything like what the Panthers faced last year. Yes obviously a pass rusher can make a more direct impact on winning games if you have an all pro at the position vs. an all pro at MLB, but that isn't the crux of the debate.

The question is if the Panthers should pass a MLB prospect who they obviously believed in, who has great instincts, tools, and demeanor for the position for rawer DT prospects who they felt less confident in because they could potentially yield a higher return in the future? I say no way they should pass on the guy their confident in. Yes, there is the risk they could miss out on the next Ngata or Suh, but if Kuechly is good then they're still getting plenty of benefit out of the pick.

As to your point about Willis and Grant, what about when Mario Williams went down last year and the Texans had the best defensive season in team history? Isn't citing examples without context fun?


Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
The problem with the Eagles last year isn't that they had average LBs, but that they were basically using complete scrubs. Of course you can't have flat-out incompetent scrubs manning the position. But you can fill in those LB spots with "average" players and as long as you have an elite DL, you can have a top-10 defense.

For an example, look at the New York Giants. Who do they have at LB? That DL does all the work and they can plug guys in like Chase Blackburn, who was a schoolteacher before he was signed by the Giants.


The #1 problem with selecting an ILB in the first round is that you are *passing* on the opportunity to obtain elite DL talent - talent that would be next to impossible to get outside of that first round of the draft. Sure, that DL talent could bust, and the ILB might be safer, but in the end, unless you have elite DL talent, you will never have a top-10 defense. So you have to get it somehow. You have to gamble on that risk in the first round. You can make all the safe LB picks you want, but then you just end up with a great LB corps and a mostly average defense.
Again there are plenty of examples of teams getting by without high pass rusher picks. The Pats made it to the Superbowl last year getting 27 sacks from 3 guys they signed for next to nothing off the street. The Denver and Detroit defenses still suck despite having elite pass rushing talent. Nothing is set in stone. Quality defenses generally have good players at all 3 levels.

Finally, this idea that quality DL talent is only available at the very top of the draft is false.

Mathis
Cole
Allen
Wake
Clemons
Avril
Tuck
Johnson
Osi

Dockett
Atkins
Rubin
Knighton
K. Williams
Pouha
Bryant
Garay

That's pretty much just off the top of my head. DL is a distribution just like any other position in the NFL. Even some of the high round guys you mentioned like Babin and Smith were found in free agency and really didn't deliver the elite pass rush returns to the teams that drafted them.

It's possible to find talent elsewhere in the draft , so it's not required that you pick it in the first round because DE is a premium position. I think people obsess about value too much around here, and most GM's won't pass up on a player they feel good about because it's not a premium position.

Last edited by cmarq83 : 09-22-2012 at 01:13 PM.
cmarq83 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-22-2012, 11:46 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
I'm well aware of what they were viewed as around draft time. This is a draft website isn't it?

The point is Kuechly was/is an outstanding linebacker prospect, probably the best since Willis. Cox and Brockers were not equivalent DT prospects, and certainly were not the same kind of prospects a lot of the guys on your list were. I will never fault teams for picking a quality player with a high pick regardless of position (besides the obvious positions). If you look across the league at successful teams most of them have vastly different rosters with plenty of quality at the "less" important positions, and the only real requirement is that you have a franchise QB.
Picking "best player available" is a sound strategy in the first round *except* for a number of positions that simply do not have a high level of value in the NFL anymore, and/or are easily replaced by late round draft picks or free agent signings: RB, FB, OG, 4-3 OLB, ILB, and obviously K and P.

If you look across the league at the successful playoff teams, and even more so at the Super Bowl teams of the past decade, what you see is not elite talent at RB or ILB positions, but elite talent more predominantly found among the DL, OL, WR, and DB positions, alongside an elite QB, obviously. Look at the 2011 Giants, the 2010 Packers, the 2009 Saints, the 2008 Steelers and on and on. Few of those teams invested much in the RB position prior to their Super Bowl runs, and few of those teams invested much in their ILB, or had high draft picks playing ILB that played at a replacement level quality (AJ Hawk for instance) and that could have been swapped out for free agents or late round draft picks.

Quote:
Do you think the 49ers front office kicks themselves because they picked Willis when they could have gambled a bit more and had Revis? Probably not. However, how do you think the Texans and the Falcons feel after reaching for pass rushers Amobi Akoye and Jamaal Anderson before the much safer and now perennial all pro Willis?
Willis is maybe the only example of an non-pass-rushing LB taken high that wasn't a complete waste of a draft pick. And even in Willis' case, I wonder whether or not another ILB without an elite pedigree could look just as good playing behind the 49ers dominant defensive line.

Of course if you gamble on DL, busts like Akoye and Anderson will occur. But you can also get big-time hits like Kevin Williams, Ndamokong Suh, Haloti Ngata, Justin Smith, etc.

Can you name me another non-pass-rushing LB picked in the first round of the draft of the past 10 years besides Patrick Willis that was worthy of that first round pick?

Quote:
Brockers is incredibly raw and Cox is completely washed out any time he is doubled. They represented a far more significant risk. Now if the scouting department was comfortable with them after reviewing their film, seeing how they would fit in their scheme, and gave them a high grade then fine, by all means pick them. I'm not trying to make this an indictment on Brockers or Cox, both of whom I was hoping would fall to the Pats. However, the notion of drafting somebody high just for the sake of the position they play is moronic. That is how disasters like Everette Brown, Jimmy Clausen, and Armanti Edwards happen.
Just because Jimmy Claussen/Everette Brown/Armanti Edwards were tremendous reaches, that doesn't mean that you should stop prioritizing certain positions. It just means that the terrible GM of the Panthers (the incompetent Marty Hurney) attached a level of value to those prospects that was simply unfounded.


Quote:
That's why the draft doesn't go QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, QB, DE, DE, DE, DE, DE, DE, LT, LT, LT, LT, LT, LT, CB, CB, CB, CB, CB, CB ect.
It actually would be better for some teams if they did stick these positions in the first round. We'd see far less teams absolutely wasting their precious first round draft picks on low-value positions such as RB and LB, and then fewer elite teams in the later rounds would take advantage of their folly to grab all of these steals that keep them at the top of the NFL.


Quote:
Every position plays a role in winning games, and preferably you try to get as many good guys to fit all those positions as possible. It's by reaching for guys and missing on picks that creates massive holes like the Panthers have at DT. The best way to avoid that is by picking guys who are extremely likely to be good when you have the opportunity to get them.
What you're describing is this mentality: "because you were burnt by a bad DL pick in the past, we should avoid drafting them in the future and instead pick safer positions like LB, even if the potential reward (Elite LB) is not as high as the potential reward with the former (elite DL)."

This is a losing mentality. You are being too risk-adverse and in the end, all that you end up with is a mediocre roster lacking impact talent at the most important positions of the team. What good does an elite LB do you if you only have an average defensive line?

If you never take a gamble on DL prospects high in the draft, your chances of having an elite DL are extremely slim. You might get lucky signing a guy like Cameron Wake, but in all likelihood, you won't. There's a reason teams with elite defensive lines such as the Giants are mostly entirely home-grown.


Quote:
What a pointless argument. That's not the choice that you make in the draft, or anything like what the Panthers faced last year. Yes obviously a pass rusher can make a more direct impact on winning games if you have an all pro at the position vs. an all pro at MLB, but that isn't the crux of the debate.

The question is if the Panthers should pass a MLB prospect who they obviously believed in, who has great instincts, tools, and demeanor for the position for rawer DT prospects who they felt less confident in because they could potentially yield a higher return in the future? I say no way they should pass on the guy their confident in. Yes, there is the risk they could miss out on the next Ngata or Suh, but if Kuechly is good then they're still getting plenty of benefit out of the pick.
What benefit are you getting out of the pick *even* if Kuechly turns into an elite LB (which isn't a given by any means at this point)?

You are getting a guy that makes alot of stops and tackles in the run game, and even that ability is pretty highly dependent on the play of the defensive line in front of him. If he is sitting behind a bunch of mediocre DL who are letting the OL flood the second level, it doesn't matter how good his play-recognition or tackling abilities are, because his team is getting gashed regardless.

And even if Kuechly turns into a tackling machine and improves their run stopping ability, what does that matter if they can't stop the passing game? Stopping the running game is almost immaterial in the NFL. It's a side-benefit of having a good defense. If you can't stop the passing game, nothing else matters because QBs are torching you for 350 yards / 3 TDs a pop. If they had instead picked a pass rusher like Chandler Jones or Fletcher Cox (who both have played very well so far in the NFL), maybe Eli Manning doesn't have all day in the pocket to read the newspaper, brew coffee, and pick the Panthers defense apart? How is Luke Kuechly going to stop guys like Eli Manning from picking the Panthers pass defense apart? What does it matter if you get a tackling machine MLB if you can't stop QBs???

Maybe Kuechly can cover as well. Let's just assume that. If the QB isn't being pressured up front, however, it DOESN'T MATTER. He'll have all day, go through his reads, ignore Kuechly's coverage, and pick on some poor DB forced to cover on the outside for too long.

Quote:
As to your point about Willis and Grant, what about when Mario Williams went down last year and the Texans had the best defensive season in team history? Isn't citing examples without context fun?
The Texans could afford to lose Mario Williams because they picked another elite DL in the draft - JJ Watt.



Quote:
Again there are plenty of examples of teams getting by without high pass rusher picks. The Pats made it to the Superbowl last year getting 27 sacks from 3 guys they signed for next to nothing off the street. The Denver and Detroit defenses still suck despite having elite pass rushing talent. Nothing is set in stone. Quality defenses generally have good players at all 3 levels.
The Pats were a fluke last year and probably shouldn't even have been in that game as the Ravens and Texans (with elite pass rushers) would have been in the Super Bowl had it not been for Schaub's injury (Texans) and Flacco's WRs/Ks crapping the bed(Ravens). Look at the history of the Super Bowl and give me another example of a team without elite DL that won. Please. Hell, Bill Belichick even agrees that he was basically a fluke without elite pass rushers - he finally drafted Chandler Jones in the first round.

And yes, you can have a mediocre defense with good pass rushers. That usually happens if you have bad DBs. I consider drafting quality DBs the second main priority in the first round of the draft. LBs, however, have little to nothing to do with an elite pass defense. To field an elite defense, you need elite DL and then a quality secondary to back them. You can usually fill in the rest with average players and still have an elite defense.


Quote:
Finally, this idea that quality DL talent is only available at the very top of the draft is false.

Mathis
Cole
Allen
Wake
Clemons
Avril
Tuck
Johnson
Osi

Dockett
Atkins
Rubin
Knighton
K. Williams
Pouha
Bryant
Garay

That's pretty much just off the top of my head. DL is a distribution just like any other position in the NFL. Even some of the high round guys you mentioned like Babin and Smith were found in free agency and really didn't deliver the elite pass rush returns to the teams that drafted them.
Where are the cream-of-the-crop elite pass rushers on that list? Terrance Knighton? Ahtyba Rubin? Cliff Avril? Charles Johnson? Trent Cole? Come on. These guys mostly all clear second-tier guys in the NFL.

I like my list better:

- Jason Pierre Paul: #15 pick in 2010 draft
- Justin Smith: #4 pick in 2001 draft
- Ndamukong Suh: #2 pick in 2010 draft
- Calais Campbell: #50 pick in 2008 draft
- Chris Long: #2 pick in 2008 draft
- JJ Watt: #11 pick in 2011 draft
- Clay Matthews: #26 pick in 2009 draft
- Brian Orakpo: #13 pick in 2009 draft
- Lamarr Woodley: #46 pick in 2007 draft
- Jason Babin: #27 pick in 2004 draft
- Aldon Smith: #7 pick in 2011 draft
- Dwight Freeney: #11 pick in 2002 draft
- Von Miller: #2 pick in 2011 draft
- Ryan Kerrigan: #16 pick in 2011 draft
- Haloti Ngata: #12 pick in 2006 draft
- DeMarcus Ware: #11 pick in 2005 draft
- Terrell Suggs: #10 pick in 2003 draft
- Julius Peppers: #2 pick in 2002 draft

If you poll any general manager or coach, or player or even fan, they'll tell you 99 out of 100 times that my list is a better representation of who is truly the elite of the pass rushers in the NFL. Your list is just a bunch of try-hard lunch pail fill-in-the-d-line guys who are more complimentary pieces than anything else. My list is the A-plus gems that you can build a defense around. The kind of guys that you need if you want to be elite on defense in the NFL (the Steelers, the Ravens, the 49ers, the Giants, the Bears, etc).


Quote:

It's possible to find talent elsewhere in the draft , so it's not required that you pick it in the first round because DE is a premium position. I think people obsess about value too much around here, and most GM's won't pass up on a player they feel good about because it's not a premium position.

Smart GMs prioritize QB, DL, DB, OT, WR in that order above all else. Look at Jerry Reese of the Giants, who does an outstanding job (until recently - the David Wilson pick was a big, uncharacteristic mistake for the man and will cost the team imho):

http://www.pro-football-reference.co.../nyg/draft.htm

Not a single RB or LB taken in the first round since the year 2000 (prior to the David Wilson mistake). And I bet the Giants wish they could have gone with someone other than RB Ron Dayne that year as well.

Remember the 2010 draft? How everyone was saying that the Giants needed to pick Rolando McClain because MLB was a gaping hole in their defense? They instead went for DL pass rush prospect Jason Pierre Paul after the Raiders picked McClain higher in the first round, and I think we now know who made the right decision now.

Last edited by J-Spot : 09-22-2012 at 11:51 PM.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 12:37 AM    (permalink
crossroads
Rookie
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Toronto
Posts: 414
Reputation: 123965
crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.crossroads is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

The Panthers are a fairly talent barren team, especially on defense. It's completely understand, and justifiable, for them to take kuechly in the first round if they felt that he was a superior talent to the other players on the board.

Just because elite pass-rushers do have a bigger impact on the game, that doesn't mean that you have to completely prioritize defensive linemen over all other defensive positions in the draft. Could the Panthers have taken Cox or Brockers instead of Kuechly? Sure. But maybe they just weren't very high on either one of them, or felt they weren't good fits. Or maybe they just feel that strongly about Kuechly's ability to play at an all-pro level, and hold him in such high regard that they felt it was more prudent to draft him over a position that may be of more importance.

Besides, it's not like linebackers (even ones who aren't pass-rushers) can't have a huge impact on the game. As has been said already in this thread, the scouting report on Kuechly coming out was that he was fantastic in coverage. The Bears have shown us for years now that having two linebackers who excel in coverage can pretty much take away the middle of the field, which is a pretty big advantage for the defense.

You also asked which other non pass-rushing linebackers have been taken in the first round that have been worth that pick? How about Sean Weatherspoon who's been pretty outstanding for the Falcons the last couple seasons. Or Brian Cushing, who is one of the best players on a dominant Texans defense. Or Jon Beason who, until his injury last year, had been playing at an all-pro level for awhile.

Now, is it easier to find elite pass-rushing talent in the first round? Yeah, probably. But to be fair, you can make that argument for any position. If a players being picked in the first round, it likely means that they are expected to be pretty good at their job. That doesn't mean you can't find good players in other rounds as well. Look at the Broncos, for example. They have two very good pass rushers, one who was a first round pick and the other was taken in the fourth round. There's talent available in every round of every draft at every position, you just have to have a front office good enough to identify it, and coaches able enough to develop that talent.
crossroads is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 07:26 AM    (permalink
AntoinCD
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Boxscorescouting.com
Posts: 5,820
Reputation: 1685895
AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.AntoinCD is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
Where are the cream-of-the-crop elite pass rushers on that list? Terrance Knighton? Ahtyba Rubin? Cliff Avril? Charles Johnson? Trent Cole? Come on. These guys mostly all clear second-tier guys in the NFL.

I like my list better:

- Jason Pierre Paul: #15 pick in 2010 draft
- Justin Smith: #4 pick in 2001 draft
- Ndamukong Suh: #2 pick in 2010 draft
- Calais Campbell: #50 pick in 2008 draft
- Chris Long: #2 pick in 2008 draft
- JJ Watt: #11 pick in 2011 draft
- Clay Matthews: #26 pick in 2009 draft
- Brian Orakpo: #13 pick in 2009 draft
- Lamarr Woodley: #46 pick in 2007 draft
- Jason Babin: #27 pick in 2004 draft
- Aldon Smith: #7 pick in 2011 draft
- Dwight Freeney: #11 pick in 2002 draft
- Von Miller: #2 pick in 2011 draft
- Ryan Kerrigan: #16 pick in 2011 draft
- Haloti Ngata: #12 pick in 2006 draft
- DeMarcus Ware: #11 pick in 2005 draft
- Terrell Suggs: #10 pick in 2003 draft
- Julius Peppers: #2 pick in 2002 draft

If you poll any general manager or coach, or player or even fan, they'll tell you 99 out of 100 times that my list is a better representation of who is truly the elite of the pass rushers in the NFL. Your list is just a bunch of try-hard lunch pail fill-in-the-d-line guys who are more complimentary pieces than anything else. My list is the A-plus gems that you can build a defense around. The kind of guys that you need if you want to be elite on defense in the NFL (the Steelers, the Ravens, the 49ers, the Giants, the Bears, etc).

So what...you're just going to flat out ignore Jared Allen who has been one of the best and most consistent pass rushers of the last decade and a possible/probable HOFer?

Or Robert Mathis who is a multiple pro bowler?

Or Justin Tuck or Osi?

Or Cameron Wake?

It's easy to pick a few of the lesser guys from the list and say well my guys who were drafted in the top ten are better. I would also like to politefully disagree that Trent Cole is a lunch pail fill in the d-line kind of guy.

And comparing later round guys to first rounders is a ridiculous arguement. It works for every single position, not simply pass rushers.

This is how the draft works, teams choose players in 7 rounds. Most teams almost seem to pick the higher rated players in the earlier rounds for some reason, regardless of positional value. It seems weird to me when I think about it. I mean take last year for example. Trent Richardson went 3rd overall. But he's a RB, clearly he would have been available in the fifth round.

It doesn't work like that. The one position in the NFL that trumps anything else is QB.

You brought up teams like NYG and NE as examples in the draft, however what both of those teams, and the Packers included do in the draft, is draft for value. This year excluded for NE, they don't go out with one or two positions to address per round, but instead they take the best player on their board.

If you target specific "needs" in the draft a lot of time you end up with a lesser talented team than one who drafts BPA.

Say my team has a hole at LT and DE, however their board currently looks like this

#1 WR
#2 CB
#3 CB
#4 DT
#5 ILB
#6 WR
#7 OG
#8 S
#9 RB
#10 LT

If I am filling my "pressing need" then, if I trust my scouting department I am doing a bad job because I have taken the tenth best player available on the board, which in turn makes higher rated players fall to my rivals.

Needs change every year. You can get players after the first round. The chances of them being elite diminish every round, however that doesn't mean they can't be serviceable. If I can get a better player in the first it leaves me more room for manouevering later in the draft to target specific needs
__________________


BoneKrusher killing it with the sig
AntoinCD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 08:01 AM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,574
Reputation: 1199061
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

The Panthers thought Kuechly was on par with Brian Urlacher as a linebacker prospect. In this case I think it was a BPA selection.
Sometimes a team has to take the best player still on their board.

Kuechly wasn't the reason the Panthers got rolled by the Giants.

BTW, Kuechly covered like a safety in college and if he ever got beat it was because of read mistake made by him, not because he was flat out beaten by the man he was covering.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 03:36 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,207
Reputation: 2050333
cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.cmarq83 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
Picking "best player available" is a sound strategy in the first round *except* for a number of positions that simply do not have a high level of value in the NFL anymore, and/or are easily replaced by late round draft picks or free agent signings: RB, FB, OG, 4-3 OLB, ILB, and obviously K and P.

If you look across the league at the successful playoff teams, and even more so at the Super Bowl teams of the past decade, what you see is not elite talent at RB or ILB positions, but elite talent more predominantly found among the DL, OL, WR, and DB positions, alongside an elite QB, obviously. Look at the 2011 Giants, the 2010 Packers, the 2009 Saints, the 2008 Steelers and on and on. Few of those teams invested much in the RB position prior to their Super Bowl runs, and few of those teams invested much in their ILB, or had high draft picks playing ILB that played at a replacement level quality (AJ Hawk for instance) and that could have been swapped out for free agents or late round draft picks.
Many of the teams that have won a Superbowl in the past decade haven't had JAG's at the LB position though. Yes, the Giants and the Packers didn't have elite linebackers, but if you look at those rosters there is pretty much talent everywhere else including HOF QB's. It's easy to say well team x didn't have dominant linebackers so it must mean that they aren't important, but there are literally dozens of more prominent factors that explain those team's success.

The Saints and Steelers didn't have scrubs at Linebacker unless you consider Vilma, Farrior, Timmons, and Fujita scrubs. Even the Giants have had guys like Boley and Pierce during their runs. The best part of the Patriot's defense in their SB years was their Linebackers. The fact that you think that Linebackers are completely homogenous and replaceable shows a clear lack of football understanding. Coaches value linebackers, that's why you see guys like Willis, Washington, Laurinitis, Mayo, Timmons, and Harris all got huge extensions. If you have somebody who can control the middle of the field against TE's and backs, diagnose a run play and shoot gaps, and chase down running backs trying to turn the corner you have a valuable commodity to any defense. You get a 3 down player who can contribute in any down or distance. Even when the Pats lost Mayo for a few games and had to replace him with a decent backup like Dane Fletcher you can see the difference.

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post

Willis is maybe the only example of an non-pass-rushing LB taken high that wasn't a complete waste of a draft pick. And even in Willis' case, I wonder whether or not another ILB without an elite pedigree could look just as good playing behind the 49ers dominant defensive line.

Of course if you gamble on DL, busts like Akoye and Anderson will occur. But you can also get big-time hits like Kevin Williams, Ndamokong Suh, Haloti Ngata, Justin Smith, etc.

Can you name me another non-pass-rushing LB picked in the first round of the draft of the past 10 years besides Patrick Willis that was worthy of that first round pick?
This is absurd. There are plenty of guys who were picked in the first round who weren't complete "waste" of picks.

Mayo
Greenway
Cushing
Beason
Timmons
DJ

All those guys are or have been pro bowl quality players.

There are plenty of other guys who haven't been wastes either.


Quote:
What you're describing is this mentality: "because you were burnt by a bad DL pick in the past, we should avoid drafting them in the future and instead pick safer positions like LB, even if the potential reward (Elite LB) is not as high as the potential reward with the former (elite DL)."

This is a losing mentality. You are being too risk-adverse and in the end, all that you end up with is a mediocre roster lacking impact talent at the most important positions of the team. What good does an elite LB do you if you only have an average defensive line?

If you never take a gamble on DL prospects high in the draft, your chances of having an elite DL are extremely slim. You might get lucky signing a guy like Cameron Wake, but in all likelihood, you won't. There's a reason teams with elite defensive lines such as the Giants are mostly entirely home-grown.
That's not what I'm describing in the slightest. I'm saying that you should pick the guy who you have a higher grade on. The fact that you can't differentiate that point is pathetic. You don't pick a player on the sole basis that they play a position that is a premium position.

Quote:
What benefit are you getting out of the pick *even* if Kuechly turns into an elite LB (which isn't a given by any means at this point)?

You are getting a guy that makes alot of stops and tackles in the run game, and even that ability is pretty highly dependent on the play of the defensive line in front of him. If he is sitting behind a bunch of mediocre DL who are letting the OL flood the second level, it doesn't matter how good his play-recognition or tackling abilities are, because his team is getting gashed regardless.

And even if Kuechly turns into a tackling machine and improves their run stopping ability, what does that matter if they can't stop the passing game? Stopping the running game is almost immaterial in the NFL. It's a side-benefit of having a good defense. If you can't stop the passing game, nothing else matters because QBs are torching you for 350 yards / 3 TDs a pop. If they had instead picked a pass rusher like Chandler Jones or Fletcher Cox (who both have played very well so far in the NFL), maybe Eli Manning doesn't have all day in the pocket to read the newspaper, brew coffee, and pick the Panthers defense apart? How is Luke Kuechly going to stop guys like Eli Manning from picking the Panthers pass defense apart? What does it matter if you get a tackling machine MLB if you can't stop QBs???

Maybe Kuechly can cover as well. Let's just assume that. If the QB isn't being pressured up front, however, it DOESN'T MATTER. He'll have all day, go through his reads, ignore Kuechly's coverage, and pick on some poor DB forced to cover on the outside for too long.
Quote:
The problem with the Eagles last year isn't that they had average LBs, but that they were basically using complete scrubs. Of course you can't have flat-out incompetent scrubs manning the position. But you can fill in those LB spots with "average" players and as long as you have an elite DL, you can have a top-10 defense.

For an example, look at the New York Giants. Who do they have at LB? That DL does all the work and they can plug guys in like Chase Blackburn, who was a schoolteacher before he was signed by the Giants.
I'm going to disregard your statement that 40% of the game is immaterial. It's not worth addressing.

You're undermining your own points with ones like this. You said a few posts ago that the Eagles defense didn't live up to their potential last year because they had terrible linebackers. Well the Panthers have terrible Defensive tackles. What happens if they go grab some decent ones in free agency next year? Maybe they get some guys who can occupy some blockers to free up Kuechly to make some plays.

You can't have it both ways.

Also, the Giants paid good money to Kiwi and Boley. If you ask most Giants fans what their biggest weakness was, they would say their Mike Linebacker. It's not like the Giants have exactly lit it up on defense either, they played very well in the playoffs, but they finished 28th last year. If they didn't have a HOF QB they wouldn't have made the playoffs, and we wouldn't be having this discussion.

Quote:
The Texans could afford to lose Mario Williams because they picked another elite DL in the draft - JJ Watt.
Does the name NoVorro Bowman mean anything to you? It's the exact same point in reverse.

Quote:
The Pats were a fluke last year and probably shouldn't even have been in that game as the Ravens and Texans (with elite pass rushers) would have been in the Super Bowl had it not been for Schaub's injury (Texans) and Flacco's WRs/Ks crapping the bed(Ravens). Look at the history of the Super Bowl and give me another example of a team without elite DL that won. Please. Hell, Bill Belichick even agrees that he was basically a fluke without elite pass rushers - he finally drafted Chandler Jones in the first round.

And yes, you can have a mediocre defense with good pass rushers. That usually happens if you have bad DBs. I consider drafting quality DBs the second main priority in the first round of the draft. LBs, however, have little to nothing to do with an elite pass defense. To field an elite defense, you need elite DL and then a quality secondary to back them. You can usually fill in the rest with average players and still have an elite defense.
So the number 1 seed getting to the Super Bowl is a fluke? I guess what happened to the 49ers was just a collection of heady plays plays by the Giants We can go back to that running game not being important point. The Pats limited the damage that the Ravens best offensive player did, so they were forced to throw to the seldom used Lee Evans instead of going with an established play maker. It's not like Evans drop was egregious either. It was a legitimate pass breakup.

Plenty of Super Bowl teams haven't had elite D-lines. Pats, Saints, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all recent examples.

BB drafted Chandler Jones because he had a high grade on him. He has the most stringent standards in terms of being a 2 way player for pass rushers which is why they haven't drafted many. Again I'm not saying that D-lineman aren't important, but blindly drafting them based on position is stupid.

There aren't any elite defenses without good linebackers. None. In fact about half of the top defenses from last year didn't have any of your "elite" high round pass rushers on them. Browns, Seahawks, Titans, Bengals, and Jacksonville, so it can be done.

Quote:
Where are the cream-of-the-crop elite pass rushers on that list? Terrance Knighton? Ahtyba Rubin? Cliff Avril? Charles Johnson? Trent Cole? Come on. These guys mostly all clear second-tier guys in the NFL.

I like my list better:

- Jason Pierre Paul: #15 pick in 2010 draft
- Justin Smith: #4 pick in 2001 draft
- Ndamukong Suh: #2 pick in 2010 draft
- Calais Campbell: #50 pick in 2008 draft
- Chris Long: #2 pick in 2008 draft
- JJ Watt: #11 pick in 2011 draft
- Clay Matthews: #26 pick in 2009 draft
- Brian Orakpo: #13 pick in 2009 draft
- Lamarr Woodley: #46 pick in 2007 draft
- Jason Babin: #27 pick in 2004 draft
- Aldon Smith: #7 pick in 2011 draft
- Dwight Freeney: #11 pick in 2002 draft
- Von Miller: #2 pick in 2011 draft
- Ryan Kerrigan: #16 pick in 2011 draft
- Haloti Ngata: #12 pick in 2006 draft
- DeMarcus Ware: #11 pick in 2005 draft
- Terrell Suggs: #10 pick in 2003 draft
- Julius Peppers: #2 pick in 2002 draft

If you poll any general manager or coach, or player or even fan, they'll tell you 99 out of 100 times that my list is a better representation of who is truly the elite of the pass rushers in the NFL. Your list is just a bunch of try-hard lunch pail fill-in-the-d-line guys who are more complimentary pieces than anything else. My list is the A-plus gems that you can build a defense around. The kind of guys that you need if you want to be elite on defense in the NFL (the Steelers, the Ravens, the 49ers, the Giants, the Bears, etc).
See AntoinCD's post for the counter to this.

Quote:
Smart GMs prioritize QB, DL, DB, OT, WR in that order above all else. Look at Jerry Reese of the Giants, who does an outstanding job (until recently - the David Wilson pick was a big, uncharacteristic mistake for the man and will cost the team imho):

http://www.pro-football-reference.co.../nyg/draft.htm

Not a single RB or LB taken in the first round since the year 2000 (prior to the David Wilson mistake). And I bet the Giants wish they could have gone with someone other than RB Ron Dayne that year as well.

Remember the 2010 draft? How everyone was saying that the Giants needed to pick Rolando McClain because MLB was a gaping hole in their defense? They instead went for DL pass rush prospect Jason Pierre Paul after the Raiders picked McClain higher in the first round, and I think we now know who made the right decision now.
The best GM's prioritize BPA. They build teams by getting the best guys and playing to their strengths. It's not about the positions, the Giants got JPP because he fit well into their system, they had confidence int their coaches to develop him, and he was the BPA in their opinion, so they took him even though they didn't have a need there. That is what you have to do. It's the same way if you're considering a Linebacker, Guard, or whatever.
cmarq83 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 04:52 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
Many of the teams that have won a Superbowl in the past decade haven't had JAG's at the LB position though. Yes, the Giants and the Packers didn't have elite linebackers, but if you look at those rosters there is pretty much talent everywhere else including HOF QB's. It's easy to say well team x didn't have dominant linebackers so it must mean that they aren't important, but there are literally dozens of more prominent factors that explain those team's success.
How hard is it to understand this? The vast majority of Super Bowl teams did not have elite linebackers. Clearly, then, linebacker is not necessary.

Less than like 5% of Super Bowls have been won by teams without elite QBs and elite DL. Clearly, then, the reverse is true for those positions.


Quote:
The Saints and Steelers didn't have scrubs at Linebacker unless you consider Vilma, Farrior, Timmons, and Fujita scrubs. Even the Giants have had guys like Boley and Pierce during their runs. The best part of the Patriot's defense in their SB years was their Linebackers. The fact that you think that Linebackers are completely homogenous and replaceable shows a clear lack of football understanding. Coaches value linebackers, that's why you see guys like Willis, Washington, Laurinitis, Mayo, Timmons, and Harris all got huge extensions. If you have somebody who can control the middle of the field against TE's and backs, diagnose a run play and shoot gaps, and chase down running backs trying to turn the corner you have a valuable commodity to any defense. You get a 3 down player who can contribute in any down or distance. Even when the Pats lost Mayo for a few games and had to replace him with a decent backup like Dane Fletcher you can see the difference.
Maybe those LBers weren't "scrubs" per se, but they were either free agents or late round draft picks. The point here is that the team did not have to expend high draft resources to acquire these players and could just sign one and plug and play him.

Just because a team gives a certain player a huge extension doesn't mean that it is a smart investment, no, does it? Look at the money being spent on running backs. It's almost all flushed down the toilet.

Quote:
This is absurd. There are plenty of guys who were picked in the first round who weren't complete "waste" of picks.

Mayo
Greenway
Cushing
Beason
Timmons
DJ

All those guys are or have been pro bowl quality players.

There are plenty of other guys who haven't been wastes either.
Ok, rather that valuing a player by the ridiculous notion of "Pro Bowl" caliber, how about we take a look at the actual defenses those players played on and see whether they were worthwhile?

- Chad Greenway has played on one of the worst defenses of the NFL the past two years. The last time they were good was in 2009 when the had the Williams wall in their prime. Since the decline of their defensive line, they've sucked, despite the presence of Greenway. Hmmmm. What is more important to the Vikings in this case?

- Jerod Mayo has played on one of the worst defenses in the NFL for the past three years. Maybe if Belichick had drafted a pass rusher instead of Mayo with that first round pick, his defense wouldn't have ranked in the bottom 10 the past three years in nearly ever category.

- Brian Cushing played on one of the worst defenses in the league from 2009-2010 until they finally signed some competent DBs and drafted some pass rushers. The defense is magically better, with or without Cushing.

- Jon Beason has played on one of the worst defenses in the NFL the past few years as well after the loss of Julius Peppers to free agency. He looks to be playing on one of the worst yet again this year. If the Panthers had instead invested in DBs and DL instead of Beason, and signed random free agent LBers instead of drafting them highly, maybe they wouldn't be a terrible defense right now.


Quote:
That's not what I'm describing in the slightest. I'm saying that you should pick the guy who you have a higher grade on. The fact that you can't differentiate that point is pathetic. You don't pick a player on the sole basis that they play a position that is a premium position.
Actually, smart GMs do prioritize certain positions over others. A guy like Jerry Reese, for instance, would never draft a LB high, even if that LB had an extremely high grade.

The fact of the matter is that even a merely "good" pass rushing DL is probably more valuable to your team than an elite ILB.





Quote:
I'm going to disregard your statement that 40% of the game is immaterial. It's not worth addressing.
Because you can't formulate any kind of argument that refutes that statement. It's the truth. The NFL is all about the passing game. The team that has the most efficient passing game on offense usually has the best offense. The team with the most efficient passing defense usually has the best defense.

Quote:
You're undermining your own points with ones like this. You said a few posts ago that the Eagles defense didn't live up to their potential last year because they had terrible linebackers. Well the Panthers have terrible Defensive tackles. What happens if they go grab some decent ones in free agency next year? Maybe they get some guys who can occupy some blockers to free up Kuechly to make some plays.
The Eagles defense actually struggled because they couldn't get off the field on 3rd down in passing situations. The Nnamdi Asomugha signing was one of the worst signings in a long time, as the CB is very overrated. And couple that with terrible scheming by coaches (such as using Rodgers-Cromartie as a slot corner) meant that it was actually the passing defense that let the team down, and not even the linebackers, who were pretty bad however.

And the point I've been making throughout is that it simply is not as *easy* to sign quality DTs in free agency as it is to sign a decent LB in free agency. The Panthers will have a very hard time doing so. It's easier to *draft* the DL and then just sign the ILB.


Quote:
You can't have it both ways.

Also, the Giants paid good money to Kiwi and Boley. If you ask most Giants fans what their biggest weakness was, they would say their Mike Linebacker. It's not like the Giants have exactly lit it up on defense either, they played very well in the playoffs, but they finished 28th last year. If they didn't have a HOF QB they wouldn't have made the playoffs, and we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Points scored by NYG opponents in last six games of the 2011 season (including playoffs): 14, 14, 2, 20, 17, 17.

If they don't have that defense firing on all cylinders with their pass rushers and their DBs (Webster and Ross in particular), we wouldn't be having this discussion.



Quote:
Does the name NoVorro Bowman mean anything to you? It's the exact same point in reverse.
Bowman doesn't affect the passing game as much as a pass rusher would, however.

Quote:
So the number 1 seed getting to the Super Bowl is a fluke? I guess what happened to the 49ers was just a collection of heady plays plays by the Giants We can go back to that running game not being important point. The Pats limited the damage that the Ravens best offensive player did, so they were forced to throw to the seldom used Lee Evans instead of going with an established play maker. It's not like Evans drop was egregious either. It was a legitimate pass breakup.
Flacco played well enough to win that game. Evans should have caught that. If you can't see that, then I question your football acumen.


Quote:
Plenty of Super Bowl teams haven't had elite D-lines. Pats, Saints, Cardinals, and Seahawks are all recent examples.
Saints had Will Smith playing at a high level during their Super Bowl run. The Cardinals had some nice play from Dockett during their run.

Did any of those teams besides the Saints actually win a Super Bowl?


Quote:
BB drafted Chandler Jones because he had a high grade on him. He has the most stringent standards in terms of being a 2 way player for pass rushers which is why they haven't drafted many. Again I'm not saying that D-lineman aren't important, but blindly drafting them based on position is stupid.
You don't think he had a high grade on other pass rushers in the past? He simply didn't prioritize them, and finally realized the errors of his ways.

Quote:
There aren't any elite defenses without good linebackers. None. In fact about half of the top defenses from last year didn't have any of your "elite" high round pass rushers on them. Browns, Seahawks, Titans, Bengals, and Jacksonville, so it can be done.
Browns, Bengals, Seahawks and Titans were elite defenses? Really?

Again, this is correlation vs. causation. An elite defense may have good linebackers on it, but does that mean the linebacker is causing it to be elite? No. It's the DBs and the DL that cause that defense to be elite.




The best GM's prioritize BPA. They build teams by getting the best guys and playing to their strengths. It's not about the positions, the Giants got JPP because he fit well into their system, they had confidence int their coaches to develop him, and he was the BPA in their opinion, so they took him even though they didn't have a need there. That is what you have to do. It's the same way if you're considering a Linebacker, Guard, or whatever.[/quote]
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 05:00 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by AntoinCD View Post
So what...you're just going to flat out ignore Jared Allen who has been one of the best and most consistent pass rushers of the last decade and a possible/probable HOFer?

Or Robert Mathis who is a multiple pro bowler?

Or Justin Tuck or Osi?

Or Cameron Wake?

It's easy to pick a few of the lesser guys from the list and say well my guys who were drafted in the top ten are better. I would also like to politefully disagree that Trent Cole is a lunch pail fill in the d-line kind of guy.
Those guys are mostly complimentary players. Mathis, Tuck, Cole - are they the best pass rushers on their teams are or they support rushers?


Quote:
And comparing later round guys to first rounders is a ridiculous arguement. It works for every single position, not simply pass rushers.
It is more applicable to pass rushers than other positions, however. Elite pass rush talent often stands out in terms of physical ability and college production. Some of those players slip through the cracks (like Jared Allen) but that is a rare occurance that cannot be counted on.

With linebackers, however, it is far easier to find one of those guys that can produce for you in later rounds.


Quote:
This is how the draft works, teams choose players in 7 rounds. Most teams almost seem to pick the higher rated players in the earlier rounds for some reason, regardless of positional value. It seems weird to me when I think about it. I mean take last year for example. Trent Richardson went 3rd overall. But he's a RB, clearly he would have been available in the fifth round.
And that was a dumb pick by the Browns front office that further reinforces the fact that they're one of the worst franchises in the league.


Just because teams still draft LBers and RBs in the first round doesn't mean that it's smart. It just means that there are alot of dumb front offices in the NFL.

Quote:
It doesn't work like that. The one position in the NFL that trumps anything else is QB.
It works like this:

QB is far and away the most important. But the #2 priority by far is stopping the *opposing* quarterback. How do you do that? With pass rushers first and foremost, and then DBs (coverage safeties and cornerbacks).

After that, you have WRs and TEs and OL that help your own quarterback, and then after that you have everything else.


Quote:
You brought up teams like NYG and NE as examples in the draft, however what both of those teams, and the Packers included do in the draft, is draft for value. This year excluded for NE, they don't go out with one or two positions to address per round, but instead they take the best player on their board.
They go after the best player available but *also* simultaneously weigh certain positions more highly than others.

For example, the Giants went for a pass rusher over a linebacker many times in the past 10 years of the draft, even if a linebacker prospect was on the board.

Quote:
If you target specific "needs" in the draft a lot of time you end up with a lesser talented team than one who drafts BPA.
It's not about blindly filling "needs".

It's about drafting BPA but *weighing* certain positions more highly. You have to give precedence to QB, then pass rusher, than CB/FS/WR/OL/TE. Every draft has quality at those positions, and if you don't have a highly rated pass rusher on the board, then you simply move down the ladder to CB, then FS, then WR, then OL, then TE and only then do you consider the LB prospect.


Quote:
Say my team has a hole at LT and DE, however their board currently looks like this

#1 WR
#2 CB
#3 CB
#4 DT
#5 ILB
#6 WR
#7 OG
#8 S
#9 RB
#10 LT

If I am filling my "pressing need" then, if I trust my scouting department I am doing a bad job because I have taken the tenth best player available on the board, which in turn makes higher rated players fall to my rivals.
No, you don't draft for need. That's bad. Can you differentiate that from what I'm saying? Clearly the OT and DE prospect are not great in that situation, so you go for your WR or CB, but you don't reach for a LB either.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 05:11 PM    (permalink
Bengals78
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Allons-y!
Posts: 9,542
Reputation: 2201884
Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Bengals78 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Mo Sanu - Sexy beast. Sexy. Sexy. Sexy.
Marvin Jones - Didn't dress.
Iloka - Solid day on ST.
Zeitler - still looking good at RG.
Thompson - inactive
Still - so so today. Had a few good pressures but RG3 burned us on them.
__________________

bonekrusher
The Twitters
themaninblack
Bengals78 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 05:12 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
Team Leader
Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 29,254
Reputation: 4191549
bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

This is a stupid argument. First and foremost, any position will have more talent drafted in the 1st round vs later rounds. That's why they're first round picks, they're generally more talented.

Also, Keuchly wasn't your typical LB prospect. Yes, there are good LBs to be had later, but not 6 4" 250 lb LBs who run a 4.5 with elite tackling ability, instincts, and coverage ability. Those prospects come around once every 5 years. He's the best ILB prospect since Patrick Willis. And ask Falcon fans if they made the right call drafting Jamal Anderson over Patrick Willis.

The bottom line is you draft talent, not position. If he's the best player on your board, take him. LBs still have a place in this league. They defend the middle of the field.

And with the 2 TE set becoming more popular, you need LBs like Keuchly.

You draft the highest rated player on your board. Regardless of position. When youre a team that lacks talent, the whole point of the draft is to maximize that talent. So going bpa is the way to go, bc they wind up filling needs anyway.

If he was BPA, and by my estimation he was, he's a good pick. The only position that warrants consideration over BPA is qb. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as long as you have a franchise qb, the objective is to fill the rest of your roster with the best available talent.
__________________
bigbluedefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
Leon Sandcastle
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 918
Reputation: 31783
Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Leon Sandcastle is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Cordy Glenn is the new Marcus McNeil. #77 could make the Pro Bowl like McNeil did in his rookie season.
Leon Sandcastle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 08:21 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
This is a stupid argument. First and foremost, any position will have more talent drafted in the 1st round vs later rounds. That's why they're first round picks, they're generally more talented.

Also, Keuchly wasn't your typical LB prospect. Yes, there are good LBs to be had later, but not 6 4" 250 lb LBs who run a 4.5 with elite tackling ability, instincts, and coverage ability. Those prospects come around once every 5 years. He's the best ILB prospect since Patrick Willis. And ask Falcon fans if they made the right call drafting Jamal Anderson over Patrick Willis.
LB prospects with elite measurables don't matter. All that matters is how much a player affects the passing game. Even the most athletic LB, especially a 4-3 LB, will rarely affect the passing game as often as a DL or DB.

Ask Giants fans if drafting Jason Pierre Paul over Rolando McClain (if he dropped, or trade-up) or Brandon Spikes was the right call.

Quote:
The bottom line is you draft talent, not position. If he's the best player on your board, take him. LBs still have a place in this league. They defend the middle of the field.
If you have a FB on your board ranked very highly, do you take him over a FS that's ranked highly but not as highly?

Some positions are simply not as important as others.

Quote:
And with the 2 TE set becoming more popular, you need LBs like Keuchly.

You draft the highest rated player on your board. Regardless of position. When youre a team that lacks talent, the whole point of the draft is to maximize that talent. So going bpa is the way to go, bc they wind up filling needs anyway.

If he was BPA, and by my estimation he was, he's a good pick. The only position that warrants consideration over BPA is qb. There is more than one way to skin a cat, as long as you have a franchise qb, the objective is to fill the rest of your roster with the best available talent.
Just because you have a BPA philosophy wrt drafting players doesn't mean you can't prioritize certain positions over others, given similar levels of talent (like a very good DL prospect vs. an elite LB prospect).
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 08:35 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
Team Leader
Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 29,254
Reputation: 4191549
bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
LB prospects with elite measurables don't matter. All that matters is how much a player affects the passing game. Even the most athletic LB, especially a 4-3 LB, will rarely affect the passing game as often as a DL or DB.

Ask Giants fans if drafting Jason Pierre Paul over Rolando McClain (if he dropped, or trade-up) or Brandon Spikes was the right call.



If you have a FB on your board ranked very highly, do you take him over a FS that's ranked highly but not as highly?

Some positions are simply not as important as others.



Just because you have a BPA philosophy wrt drafting players doesn't mean you can't prioritize certain positions over others, given similar levels of talent (like a very good DL prospect vs. an elite LB prospect).
3 down linebackers are priceless in today's NFL. With no huddle offenses using versatile 2 TEs becoming more popular, it's increasingly difficult for defenses to move into sub packages with specialized coverage LBs and not lose a lot in run defense. Having a Luke Keuchly who can play all 3 downs and cover TEs while also being a hammer vs the run, that's priceless. Linebackers aren't valuable if they are specialized players, ie nickel LBs or run thumpers who get subbed out. But an elite 3 down LB is just as valuable as a DLmen.

JPP wasn't better than McClain bc he's a DE. JPP was the better pick bc he was the better player. If he was a mediocre DE and McClain was the next Ray Lewis, then he'd clearly be the better pick. That's the point you're missing. It's about the talent of the individual.

Of course some positions deserve more weight than others, but you don't take a DLmen over a LB just bc its a more valuable position.

For example, what DL would you want them to take at 9 overall that was worth it over Luke? Brockers? He's a 2 down run stuffing DL, he offers no pass rush at all. That's not a valuable commodity in today's NFL, even if he is a DLmen.

Cox? Ok maybe, but the bust rate of DTs is high, and Luke is just a much higher rated player.

What about DBs? Gilmore? He's not even close to rated as high as Luke. Barron? Already off the board. Clairborne was off the board. The DEs available weren't valued at 9 overall.

He was the right pick. They got a 3 down LB who can do everything. Will never come off the field. That's worth the pick.
__________________
bigbluedefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 09:02 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
3 down linebackers are priceless in today's NFL. With no huddle offenses using versatile 2 TEs becoming more popular, it's increasingly difficult for defenses to move into sub packages with specialized coverage LBs and not lose a lot in run defense. Having a Luke Keuchly who can play all 3 downs and cover TEs while also being a hammer vs the run, that's priceless. Linebackers aren't valuable if they are specialized players, ie nickel LBs or run thumpers who get subbed out. But an elite 3 down LB is just as valuable as a DLmen.
The target might be different, but the passing game still begins and ends with the QB sitting in the pocket. What can a defense do to affect that? Why, with a pass rush. A pass rusher is always more valuable than anyone else on the defense for that reason - he can affect the passing game from the very start of the play.

Even a 3-down LB is not even remotely as important as a pass rusher. The only way a 3-down LB will affect the passing game is in coverage on the TE or RB, and then only sparingly, as the passing game is *still* primarily about the QB throwing to WRs. Yes, the TE might be more involved in the passing game now, but he is still less important a focus of the offense than the WR.


Quote:
JPP wasn't better than McClain bc he's a DE. JPP was the better pick bc he was the better player. If he was a mediocre DE and McClain was the next Ray Lewis, then he'd clearly be the better pick. That's the point you're missing. It's about the talent of the individual.
Bit of revisionist history here?

JPP was widely considered a very raw prospect with little college production. He was seen as a big risk as a first round prospect. In fact, I remember several members of the Giants sub-board on this forum actively cursing the Giants for selecting JPP. I'm sure you can dig up the old 2010 draft thread in the Giants section and find a couple of good quotes like "Oh please no, please no don't select Pierre Paul, anybody but Pierre Paul"

Rolando McClain, on the other hand, was a favorite among Giants fans leading up to the 2010 draft. He was seen as a sure-fire stud ILB who played at a high level for Nick Saban's championship team in 2009.

Quote:
Of course some positions deserve more weight than others, but you don't take a DLmen over a LB just bc its a more valuable position.
If you're a smart GM, you'll do just that.

Quote:
For example, what DL would you want them to take at 9 overall that was worth it over Luke? Brockers? He's a 2 down run stuffing DL, he offers no pass rush at all. That's not a valuable commodity in today's NFL, even if he is a DLmen.

Cox? Ok maybe, but the bust rate of DTs is high, and Luke is just a much higher rated player.
I'd have taken Brockers, Coples, Chandler Jones, Cox, or even Ingram over Kuechly. Sure, they might bust, but at least you're trying to get an impact DL.

Kuechly is technically "Safer" but even he's not a lock to be a 3-down impact LB. And even if he is, again, you could have gotten 80-85% of that production out of a random free agent / late round pick. It's hard to get that ratio of production out of random free agent / late round pick DEs and DTs.

Quote:
What about DBs? Gilmore? He's not even close to rated as high as Luke. Barron? Already off the board. Clairborne was off the board. The DEs available weren't valued at 9 overall.
Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram and Quinton Coples were high-rated pass rushers. Maybe lower-rated DEs than Kuechly was rated as a LB, but not much more, and clearly more important from a positional standpoint.

Quote:
He was the right pick. They got a 3 down LB who can do everything. Will never come off the field. That's worth the pick.
Again, it's not guaranteed. I have not liked what I've seen from him so far, and then, even if he does develop into that 3 down LB, guess what? If they can't get a pass rush, it simply won't matter because they're going to get torched by QBs anyway.
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 09:39 PM    (permalink
J-Spot
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 137
Reputation: -3043
J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot J-Spot
Default

Some interesting quotes from Giants fans on this forum leading up to the 2010 NFL draft:


Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Its never too early. List some guys you have your eyes on.


As of right now, my main man is Brandon Spikes to play MIKE for us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Malaka View Post
I like Rolando McClain as a potential MIKE for us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post

What we really need is a stud linebacker. I know Boley could be that guy, but in this scheme, the stud you need in the LB core should be the MIKE position.

While Brandon Spikes has his stock in the top 15 range as of right now, I could see him slipping. I think he'd be perfect for us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
As of right now, offensive line depth, and MIKE are our highest priorities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
I like McClain a lot. As #10 said he's exactly the type of player that would fit in well with us. It's still way too early to see which way we might go though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGoGiants! View Post
I wouldn't mind if we got Spikes or Mcclain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
I forgot to mention this, but Brandon Spikes looked studly against LSU.

He'd look good in Giant blue.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
After Brandon Spikes suspension (what a terrible thing to do btw, he shouldve gotten more than a half game suspension), I hope he falls in this draft.

He's still a beast, and my favorite ILB prospect. Right now he's #1 on my target list.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Some names of guys that I can realistically be available to us currently that I would be interested in.

I'm not saying these are the only guys that id like, just that ive seen em and like what they have to offer, and wouldnt mind them in Giant blue.

Brandon Spikes - ILB
Nate Allen - Safety
Sean Weatherspoon - OLB/ILB
Jermaine Gresham - TE
Earl Thomas - Safety
Quote:
Originally Posted by Giantsfan1080 View Post
I'd love for us to trade up for McClain. He's been one of my favorite players to watch all years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
MIKE, DT, Safety, Center.

I wouldn't mind any of those positions in the 1st. If we do have a top 15 pick, then I want us to move up and nab Rolando McClain. He's the next Patrick Willis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
If we're going to roll with Goff or Kehl, then they MUST start at some point this season. We can't go into the offseason blind about what we have in them. Gotta see what they can do before that.

If they don't get any snaps, then you have to assume that we need a MIKE. At the end of the day, they were 4th and 5th round picks. A MIKE like Brandon Spikes would do wonders for this defense.

Especially since AP can't shed a bock, and has been taking horrible angles this year. The few times Ive gotten to see some endzone cam on tv or whatever, every time AP looked god awful against the run.

So MIKE is a huge need. We don't know if we have the answer in house. Why gamble?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
I'm a big Derrick Morgan fan. But I doubt he'd last to the 20s. He's a pick in the teens, and at that point, I'm definitely not thinking about DE.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
i wouldn't mind trading the farm for McClain. He's the next Patrick Willis.

We can nab a safety in the mid rounds, or even in FA. we don't need a stud safety, just a solid SS who can support the run and provide decent pass coverage.

Worst case scenario KP's career is done, Johnson is very solid at FS, but we need a SS to compliment him.

We can find that in various ways.

A stud MIKE is hard to find. 2 guys I really like are McClain (obviously), and Brandon Spikes.


Brandon Spikes is more realistic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
yeah i won't be surprised if mcclain is a top 7 pick by the time the draft comes around.

he's a freak athlete, smart, productive, he's basically Patrick Willis.

he'll go very high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BaLLiN View Post
well, i realize that 3-4 NT's with his talent dont come around very often, but weight issues (much more than Glen Dorsey's were), knee injuries, there's a possiblity he might drop. On many draft sites he's ranked 3rd or 4th of DT's and in the teens on average of value.

Rolando has had a hard life, i can forgive his character concerns, but god damn he's a player. He needs to be on our team, i dont care if we need to trade a future 1st, he's worth it IMO.

Plan: Trade away Kiwi w/ future second and fourth to Miami (3-4 team), net around a 15-20 1st rounder. Use other picks as ammo likely use up 4th this year.

*1a. Rolando McClain MLB - become MLB eventually
*1b. Terrence Cody NT - Run stuffing, double team eating monster
2. Ciron Black OT - cements our right OL as our RT in training
3. Reshad Jones S - (don't think he's worthy of the 1st-2nd round consideration) progressive learning while playing if kenny phillips is done.
5. Alterraun Verner CB - productive battle tested cb with potential
6. Stevenson Sylvester OLB/ST - explosive, plays with emotion, great athleticism.
7. BPA (best punter available)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post

As for our 1st round pick, if we're picking top 10, I think we have to get McClain. Its a no brainer to me. He's everything you want in a MIKE.

if we're picking 15-20, then things get trickier. bc McClain will be gone. Now who do you get? Do you go after Mays? I'm a Mays fan, but I'm starting to think he's overrated. And he plays undisciplined football.

Do we move back and collect picks? I think that would be ideal in that scenario. We need to nab a quality C and DT, and I would like to nab both in the 2nd round, and that is only possible if we move back in the first and collect a 2nd round pick.

That way, we can nab Brandon Spikes in the late 1st (who is sure to fall), and then nab our 2nd round DT and 2nd round C that we desperately need.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OSUGiants17 View Post
My top 5 big board at this point:
1. Rolando McClain
2. Earl Thomas
3. Greg Hardy
4. Taylor Mays
5. Brandon Spikes(if we trade down, would be a reach if we don't)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post

Id like 1 of 2 possibilities:

1. Move into the top 10 and get McClain
2. Move back to the late 20s, nab Dan Williams, then take our 2nd and whatever picks we got from moving back and move back into the early 2nd and nab Brandon Spikes

Quote:
Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
Just thinking about it now, McClain just makes so much sense.

Let's be real, our team was decimated by injuries. Our defense is NOT that bad. And of course our coordinator was a big problem as well.

Our secondary is fine, we just need a reliable SS. That can be had in round 2 and up. Or get Dawan Landry in FA. Or Atogwe. Boom, done. Our DEs are fine. They were all injured this year. Our OLBs are fine. Sintim will be solid at SAM, Boley is fine at WILL. Our CBs are beyond fine, I'll put our collective CB trio up against any in the league.

But what are we missing from defense?

We need a MIKE, have needed one for awhile now. We need leadership. We need run stuffers. We need a smart guy who can line guys up.

Sounds like we need Rolando McClain. He'll give us the smarts we need, the run stuffing presence in the middle we desperately need, and eventually the leadership we need. He'll finally give us a presence at LB.

Now obviously, McClain still needs some DTs in front of him. But thats ok, theres plenty of other rounds in the draft to nab one.


See, bigbluedefense, if you were the Giants GM right now, you'd have "filled" your MLB "need" with some guy like Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain, and your defensive line would not nearly be as awesome with only older Osi and older Tuck as the main pass rush threats on there, and maybe the 2011 Giants don't even win the Super Bowl (scratch that, I *know* they don't win that Super Bowl without JPP doing elite stuff in the regular season and in postseason instead of just some guy like McClain or Spikes making tackles that anybody you bring off the street - read: CHASE BLACKBURN - can make).
J-Spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 09:40 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,574
Reputation: 1199061
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

JPP was considered a risk being taken as a top 5 pick, not as a first rounder.
He was always a first round prospect, but many were against the hype he was getting as potentially one of the first defenders drafted in 2010.

Look at the SKins, they have a lot of average, workman like 5-tech DT/DEs. Most are okay against the run but none really offer much in terms of pass rush. Not a Ngata or Justin SMith in the entire bunch.

However, if you put a guy like Kuechly behind that unit, his diagnostic skills and coverage ability makes the Dline look disruptive.

It's ridiculous to argue you could have gotten much of Kuechly's production out of random FA/late round pick.
If you think Kuechly is a JAG, or that LBs are JAGs in general, say that.
All I know is, SF doesn't have JAGs at LB. Neither do the Texans.

It's true you can get good LBs outside of the top 100 picks, but if you always select players on the cheap you'll never acquire the talent needed to win long term in the NFL.

Kuechly deserved his draft position. When he finally starts fulltime, it will become obvious.

EDIT: You talk as if there was a pass rusher who should have been taken ahead of Kuechly at pick 9.

Who??
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-23-2012, 09:58 PM    (permalink
bigbluedefense
Team Leader
Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 29,254
Reputation: 4191549
bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.bigbluedefense is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
Some interesting quotes from Giants fans on this forum leading up to the 2010 NFL draft:




See, bigbluedefense, if you were the Giants GM right now, you'd have "filled" your MLB "need" with some guy like Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain, and your defensive line would not nearly be as awesome with only older Osi and older Tuck as the main pass rush threats on there, and maybe the 2011 Giants don't even win the Super Bowl (scratch that, I *know* they don't win that Super Bowl without JPP doing elite stuff in the regular season and in postseason instead of just some guy like McClain or Spikes making tackles that anybody you bring off the street - read: CHASE BLACKBURN - can make).
I appreciate you going back and looking up quotes from us to "prove" your point, but what you fail to do is notice how my stance changed on McClain leading up to the draft.

Just like any draftnik, my opinion on a player went from high, to low, to high, to in btw, to whatever by the time the draft came by. And while I was high on McClain at certain points, you'll see that I actually wound up rating Witherspoon higher than him, and soured on McClain. Not only that, but I made a thread in the NFL draft forum stating that Spikes was just as good as McClain.

And on top of that, leading up to the draft, I said I liked Brandon Graham and JPP. So taking certain quotes to make your point might look good on paper, you fail to show the entire picture of my opinion on the matter. Nor do you show my direct quotes after the draft when I was one of the few Giant fans on here who loved the pick.

These quotes are also unfair, because you don't know who you want in a draft until you see the draft unfold. The board changes as players go off the board. McClain was off the board before we even picked, so it's a moot point. He wasn't available.
__________________

Last edited by bigbluedefense : 09-23-2012 at 10:00 PM.
bigbluedefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2012, 06:36 AM    (permalink
BigBanger
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: D.C. Chillin
Posts: 1,735
Reputation: 706082
BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BigBanger is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

What I've taken away from some of the rookies so far...

Dont'a Hightower looked terrible against NE. This is the first week I watched the Patriots, but he showed no instincts and looked terribly slow. He allowed some gaping holes and made almost no effort to control his gap assignments.

Chandler Jones looked solid and flashed his talent here and there. Still too raw to make a consistent impact, but he has sneaky strength to go along with the great length. Solid against the run. Lots of upside there and with the type of work ethic and bloodlines... should be a borderline great player in the future.

Courtney Upshaw didn't look explosive in college and looks even slower in the NFL. He will have to refine his technique to become a good player. A power rusher only and he's been getting handled by average linemen. He doesn't have a lot of potential and he wont be a double digit sack guy on a year to year basis. Stout at the point and plays discpline, but he's limited.

Brandon Weeden looks... raw. He struggles to move in the pocket and is very immoble. I think that, and the fact that he stares down his recievers, will cause him the most problems early in his career. A little slow getting the ball out and seems to be holding onto it a pinch too long. Footwork needs to improve the most.

Trent Richardson is a beast. When he's in space he has done nothing but impress. His elusiveness has translated to the next level and he's an absolute stud.

Cordy Glenn looks like a LT. I can't believe it. Solid in both phases of the game. Made Tamba Hali look bad and hasn't allowed a sack.


I will add more later...
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Wright View Post
I honestly believe Reggie Bush has turned into exactly the type of player I envisioned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PossibleCabbage View Post
I would like it if there were more successful black Quarterbacks in the NFL...
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearsfan_51 View Post
iamcandian lives in a cabin in the Yukon Territory and writes letters to railroad barons about the price of hard tack.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorsBullsFan View Post
I could possibly see Matthew Stafford Dropping out of the 1st round
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoRavens View Post
Tahj Boyd has the best fundamentals of any QB in this class, I think his game translates great to the NFL.

Last edited by BigBanger : 09-24-2012 at 07:08 AM.
BigBanger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-24-2012, 12:15 PM    (permalink
Thecollegedropout
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 2,084
Reputation: 108963
Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Thecollegedropout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Jets Rooks:

DE Quinton Coples has played the best H.G. Wells Invisible Man quite well. Has done almost absolutely nothing in the first 3 games after a preseason. Very irritating. Don't know if its because he's a backup to Devito/Wilkerson/Pouha but its annoying because we have zero pressure on the opponents.

WR Stephen Hill after a brilliant game 1 has been awful games 2 and 3. Drops, poor route running and has offered nothing. Should not be starting at this point for us, he's strictly a No.3 target as of now. He hurt his hammy yesterday so hopefully all is well there. He's a raw project, we all know that and knew it when he came out of Ga Tech...just the inconsistency by him is annoying. Unacceptable for him to go catchless in back to back games.

LB Demario Davis has not stood out and I don't think has been on the field much if at all.

S Josh Bush key highlight was a special teams tackle and getting in the face of a Dolphin after a play on special teams.

Jets rookies have done nothing thus far.....
Thecollegedropout is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:38 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.