Join Date: Oct 2011
Week 3 Mock
Updated my Excel spreadsheet with projected wins for the season with this weeks results and made a new mock with those standings.
1 JAC (3-13) - Matt Barkley - QB - USC
I think in this day in age the #1 pick will surely be a QB every year. With new ownership in Jacksonville, I see them going a different direction than Gabbert after this abysmal season.
2 CLE (3-13) - Barkevious Mingo - DE - LSU
Weeden followed up the worst possible performance week 1 with likely the best you could hope for out of him week 2. Think they turn their attention to their defense with their first pick in round 1 next year, and get a legitimate pass rusher in Mingo.
3 IND (5-11) - Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
Freeney will likely not be a Colt after this season and will probably latch onto a 4-3 team somewhere. While the Colts have some decent rotational guys in Hughes and Addison, a top notch starting pass rusher like Jarvis Jones would fill a need and will likely be best player available.
4 TEN (5-11) - Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
I think Hankins is going to overtake the #1 DT spot by the end of the season over Lotuleilei. I feel that Titans' run defense will be a major weakness this year, giving up 155 yards a game to the Patriots and Matthews-less Chargers is absolutely pathetic. Also gave up a 100 yard game to Leshoure making his first NFL start, so once again, run D upgrade is a must.
5 OAK (5-11) - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
I completely forgot about this guy in my last mock and I'm shocked no one jumped on me for that. I have him this high more because the other projected round 1 QBs are facing setbacks as of late, and Smith is still going strong.
6 STL (5-11) - Luke Joeckel - LT - Texas A & M
Joeckel definitely has the talent to be selected at this spot, but I see the Rams trading back for the 2nd year in a row and picking up Joeckel or Lewan.
7 SEA (5-11) - Keenan Allen - WR - California
The 2013 class as a whole looks way stronger than the 2012 class, particularly at WR, so even though I think there's at least 2 WRs in this class better than Blackmon, it wouldn't surprise me if one isn't taken until pick 7. Assuming of course that Russell Wilson has a promising rookie season, WR 1st for the Seahawks is fairly obvious.
8 TB (6-10) - Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah
Bucs still have a bunch of holes, so I could see them going a few different directions with their first pick. Aside from McCoy their DT's are Corvey Irvin, Roy Miller, and Gary Gibson. I'm not a big Bucs follower but those don't sound like good players and I just looked at their stats and combined they have like 6 tackles through 3 games, 0 sacks. Eric Reid from LSU and Dee Milliner from Alabama would also make sense.
9 CAR (6-10) - Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
While Amerson was getting torched by Tennessee's 3rd WR, Milliner was all over the place against Arkansas. I think it's a safe assumption that Milliner will be the #1 corner off the board come draft day.
10 MIN (6-10) - Robert Woods - WR - USC
There's a few different directions the Vikings could go round 1 next year, but with Woods sitting there at 10 and no real outside threat aside from Percy Harvin, this pick makes sense.
11 KC (7-9) - Logan Thomas - QB - Virginia Tech
I hate putting him this high after watching him make the absolute worst decisions possible against Pitt on Saturday, but there's no question about his potential. Many people believed he'd be next years Cam Newton or RGIII, but its hard to do that when you don't have a ridiculous Junior campaign and win the Heisman and all that they did, which is out the window after Saturday's performance. Still, if Tannehill can go top 10 out of QB need, so can Thomas. I think Bray stays for Senior year, he's really into the school and I think waiting a year makes him the clearcut #1 in 2014. We'll see though.
12 MIA (7-9) - Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
Didn't even need to think twice about this one. The Dolphins have a worse receiving corps than some college teams, way worse than USC's for sure.
13 NO (7-9) - Johnathan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
While the Saints' D has been the issue through the first 3 games, it isn't because of lack of talent. They poured a lot of money into the guys they brought in. Really the only spot on D that they don't have a lot of money tied up on is corner. Think this guy will be drafted before Amerson.
14 STL(WAS) (7-9) - Eric Reid - FS - LSU
Rams still have a bunch of holes, one of them is at safety and with Reid sitting there at 14 this would be a solid pickup.
15 DEN (8-8) - Sam Montgomery - DE - LSU
Just looked at the Broncos depth chart, are they seriously playing Derek Wolfe at DE? What's going on there? Either way, I don't see Montgomery dropping even this far.
16 ARI (8-8) - Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
The concussion he just suffered will impact his draft stock more than they used to with the NFL being gung-ho about head injuries these days. Still, he is a QB, and QBs draft stock is inflated when the team needs one, which the Cardinals no doubt do. How he does this season without his 3 mid-round WRs will speak volumes about how good he actually is too.
17 BUF (7-9) - Terrance Williams - WR - Baylor
Bills are also a candidate to draft a QB, contract extensions don't mean a whole lot if the guaranteed money is frontloaded. Still, the Bills desperately need a legitimate WR who isn't Stevie Johnson. TJ Graham could work out, but even if he does he'd make a good slot receiver. Did not include this guy in my last mock, but he's growing on me as I just watched the Baylor ULM game this past week.
18 CIN (8-8) - Marcus Lattimore - RB - South Carolina
Assuming he stays healthy, Lattimore should be about a mid-round pick. The knee injury from 2011 hurts his stock and the fact that RBs as a whole have been devalued, but even 15 is low for someone with his talent.
19 NYG (8-8) - Taylor Lewan - LT - Michigan
Another pick I didn't have to think twice about. Who's the Giants LT right now? Locklear now? Yikes. Very obvious pick an Eli will be thankful for it.
20 CHI (9-7) - Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Think I'd be more shocked if Urlacher doesn't call it quits after this season. The guy can't stay on the field, and even if he comes back Te'o can play at the sam spot until then.
21 NYJ (10-6) - Jackson Jeffcoat - OLB - Texas
Such a good 3-4 rush linebacker crop coming out in 2013, it would be a joke if the Jets did not take one. Didn't mind Jets passing on Ingram and Jones to take Coples because he was the best defensive player available, but next year it will be hard for the best defensive player available to not be an OLB.
22 SD (10-6) - Barrett Jones - OL - Alabama
Chargers could definitely use some help on their interior line, and Jones has the versatility to play pretty much anywhere on the line.
23 PHI (10-6) - TJ McDonald - S - USC
Clearly their biggest need at this point. Plenty of young talent in the front 7 and Boykin is looking good at nickelback. The offense definitely doesn't need any help either. Definitely think either Reid or McDonald will be an Eagle come April barring some setback in Peters' return at LT for next season.
24 ATL (11-5) - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
Gonzalez has made it clear that this will be his last year, and with not a whole lot of glaring needs for the Falcons, TE seems like a logical choice. However, I think there's a few TE's that can overtake the first spot from Eifert, such as Ertz and Sims and Toilolo.
25 DET (10-6) - Carrington Byndom - CB - Texas
I watched the game last week and Drayton Florence was starting at corner. I mean I know that they drafted 3 corners last year, but come on that secondary is horrendous. Still their biggest need in 2013 by far. Since I wrote this last week, the Lions gave up a huge passing game from Jake Locker, horrendous. I know the Lions like to BPA draft, but that secondary needs to be addressed.
26 BAL (11-5) - Max Bullough - ILB - Michigan State
Ray Lewis has to retire after this season... right? Well, in any case, Bullough is a monster in the middle and I can see his draft stock soar, and even if it doesn't, Newsome will realize what a steal this guy is late in the 1st.
27 DAL (11-5) - Johnathan Jenkins - NT - Georgia
Still not sure why Dallas uses Ratliff as a NT, but in any case, Cowboys could use some front 3 help and at this stage in the draft the NTs are way better than the 3-techs, so they'll figure something out up there, like moving Ratliff to DE.
28 NE (13-3) - Chance Warmack - G - Alabama
Patriots O-line needs some work, but Patriots are also the toughest team to mock every year on account of all their movement and surprise picks.
29 PIT (11-5) - LeVeon Bell - RB - Michigan State
This kid is special. He has the size of a fullback but has one of the best spin moves in the nation, and his vertical is insane. Would be shocked if he isn't selected in the first round, probably even higher than this. Team he goes to likely depends on what RBs get injured or don't perform well.
30 SF (12-4) - Demontre Moore - OLB - Texas A&M
With no glaring needs and solid youth at just about every position, the niners are in a prime position to draft bpa for depth in 2013. One position they lack depth is OLB, and I think Demontre Moore's stock is going to skyrocket. Just watched him destroy Florida's oline and future nfl tackle Chaz Greeen last week, and think he's way better than the projected 2nd-3rd round he is now.
31 HOU (11-5) - Jake Matthews - RT - Texas A&M
The right side of their offensive line has been a mess since the departure of Eric Winston. This should shore it up.
32 GB (12-4) - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama
The other RBs in this tier have been less than stellar. I see a lot of movement in the RB ranks from now until draft day, aside from Lattimore and Bell I think those 2 guys are locks to be 1st rounders out of sheer talent.
Did not change a whole lot in the later part of the draft. Comments always appreciated! Tried to incorporate the comments from last weeks mock into this one.