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Old 09-24-2012, 11:19 AM    (permalink
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Default Week 3 Mock

Updated my Excel spreadsheet with projected wins for the season with this weeks results and made a new mock with those standings.


1 JAC (3-13) - Matt Barkley - QB - USC
I think in this day in age the #1 pick will surely be a QB every year. With new ownership in Jacksonville, I see them going a different direction than Gabbert after this abysmal season.

2 CLE (3-13) - Barkevious Mingo - DE - LSU
Weeden followed up the worst possible performance week 1 with likely the best you could hope for out of him week 2. Think they turn their attention to their defense with their first pick in round 1 next year, and get a legitimate pass rusher in Mingo.

3 IND (5-11) - Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
Freeney will likely not be a Colt after this season and will probably latch onto a 4-3 team somewhere. While the Colts have some decent rotational guys in Hughes and Addison, a top notch starting pass rusher like Jarvis Jones would fill a need and will likely be best player available.

4 TEN (5-11) - Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
I think Hankins is going to overtake the #1 DT spot by the end of the season over Lotuleilei. I feel that Titans' run defense will be a major weakness this year, giving up 155 yards a game to the Patriots and Matthews-less Chargers is absolutely pathetic. Also gave up a 100 yard game to Leshoure making his first NFL start, so once again, run D upgrade is a must.

5 OAK (5-11) - Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia

I completely forgot about this guy in my last mock and I'm shocked no one jumped on me for that. I have him this high more because the other projected round 1 QBs are facing setbacks as of late, and Smith is still going strong.

6 STL (5-11) - Luke Joeckel - LT - Texas A & M
Joeckel definitely has the talent to be selected at this spot, but I see the Rams trading back for the 2nd year in a row and picking up Joeckel or Lewan.

7 SEA (5-11) - Keenan Allen - WR - California
The 2013 class as a whole looks way stronger than the 2012 class, particularly at WR, so even though I think there's at least 2 WRs in this class better than Blackmon, it wouldn't surprise me if one isn't taken until pick 7. Assuming of course that Russell Wilson has a promising rookie season, WR 1st for the Seahawks is fairly obvious.

8 TB (6-10) - Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah
Bucs still have a bunch of holes, so I could see them going a few different directions with their first pick. Aside from McCoy their DT's are Corvey Irvin, Roy Miller, and Gary Gibson. I'm not a big Bucs follower but those don't sound like good players and I just looked at their stats and combined they have like 6 tackles through 3 games, 0 sacks. Eric Reid from LSU and Dee Milliner from Alabama would also make sense.

9 CAR (6-10) - Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
While Amerson was getting torched by Tennessee's 3rd WR, Milliner was all over the place against Arkansas. I think it's a safe assumption that Milliner will be the #1 corner off the board come draft day.

10 MIN (6-10) - Robert Woods - WR - USC
There's a few different directions the Vikings could go round 1 next year, but with Woods sitting there at 10 and no real outside threat aside from Percy Harvin, this pick makes sense.

11 KC (7-9) - Logan Thomas - QB - Virginia Tech
I hate putting him this high after watching him make the absolute worst decisions possible against Pitt on Saturday, but there's no question about his potential. Many people believed he'd be next years Cam Newton or RGIII, but its hard to do that when you don't have a ridiculous Junior campaign and win the Heisman and all that they did, which is out the window after Saturday's performance. Still, if Tannehill can go top 10 out of QB need, so can Thomas. I think Bray stays for Senior year, he's really into the school and I think waiting a year makes him the clearcut #1 in 2014. We'll see though.

12 MIA (7-9) - Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
Didn't even need to think twice about this one. The Dolphins have a worse receiving corps than some college teams, way worse than USC's for sure.

13 NO (7-9) - Johnathan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
While the Saints' D has been the issue through the first 3 games, it isn't because of lack of talent. They poured a lot of money into the guys they brought in. Really the only spot on D that they don't have a lot of money tied up on is corner. Think this guy will be drafted before Amerson.

14 STL(WAS) (7-9) - Eric Reid - FS - LSU

Rams still have a bunch of holes, one of them is at safety and with Reid sitting there at 14 this would be a solid pickup.

15 DEN (8-8) - Sam Montgomery - DE - LSU
Just looked at the Broncos depth chart, are they seriously playing Derek Wolfe at DE? What's going on there? Either way, I don't see Montgomery dropping even this far.

16 ARI (8-8) - Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
The concussion he just suffered will impact his draft stock more than they used to with the NFL being gung-ho about head injuries these days. Still, he is a QB, and QBs draft stock is inflated when the team needs one, which the Cardinals no doubt do. How he does this season without his 3 mid-round WRs will speak volumes about how good he actually is too.

17 BUF (7-9) - Terrance Williams - WR - Baylor
Bills are also a candidate to draft a QB, contract extensions don't mean a whole lot if the guaranteed money is frontloaded. Still, the Bills desperately need a legitimate WR who isn't Stevie Johnson. TJ Graham could work out, but even if he does he'd make a good slot receiver. Did not include this guy in my last mock, but he's growing on me as I just watched the Baylor ULM game this past week.

18 CIN (8-8) - Marcus Lattimore - RB - South Carolina
Assuming he stays healthy, Lattimore should be about a mid-round pick. The knee injury from 2011 hurts his stock and the fact that RBs as a whole have been devalued, but even 15 is low for someone with his talent.

19 NYG (8-8) - Taylor Lewan - LT - Michigan

Another pick I didn't have to think twice about. Who's the Giants LT right now? Locklear now? Yikes. Very obvious pick an Eli will be thankful for it.

20 CHI (9-7) - Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Think I'd be more shocked if Urlacher doesn't call it quits after this season. The guy can't stay on the field, and even if he comes back Te'o can play at the sam spot until then.

21 NYJ (10-6) - Jackson Jeffcoat - OLB - Texas
Such a good 3-4 rush linebacker crop coming out in 2013, it would be a joke if the Jets did not take one. Didn't mind Jets passing on Ingram and Jones to take Coples because he was the best defensive player available, but next year it will be hard for the best defensive player available to not be an OLB.

22 SD (10-6) - Barrett Jones - OL - Alabama

Chargers could definitely use some help on their interior line, and Jones has the versatility to play pretty much anywhere on the line.

23 PHI (10-6) - TJ McDonald - S - USC

Clearly their biggest need at this point. Plenty of young talent in the front 7 and Boykin is looking good at nickelback. The offense definitely doesn't need any help either. Definitely think either Reid or McDonald will be an Eagle come April barring some setback in Peters' return at LT for next season.

24 ATL (11-5) - Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
Gonzalez has made it clear that this will be his last year, and with not a whole lot of glaring needs for the Falcons, TE seems like a logical choice. However, I think there's a few TE's that can overtake the first spot from Eifert, such as Ertz and Sims and Toilolo.

25 DET (10-6) - Carrington Byndom - CB - Texas
I watched the game last week and Drayton Florence was starting at corner. I mean I know that they drafted 3 corners last year, but come on that secondary is horrendous. Still their biggest need in 2013 by far. Since I wrote this last week, the Lions gave up a huge passing game from Jake Locker, horrendous. I know the Lions like to BPA draft, but that secondary needs to be addressed.

26 BAL (11-5) - Max Bullough - ILB - Michigan State
Ray Lewis has to retire after this season... right? Well, in any case, Bullough is a monster in the middle and I can see his draft stock soar, and even if it doesn't, Newsome will realize what a steal this guy is late in the 1st.

27 DAL (11-5) - Johnathan Jenkins - NT - Georgia

Still not sure why Dallas uses Ratliff as a NT, but in any case, Cowboys could use some front 3 help and at this stage in the draft the NTs are way better than the 3-techs, so they'll figure something out up there, like moving Ratliff to DE.

28 NE (13-3) - Chance Warmack - G - Alabama

Patriots O-line needs some work, but Patriots are also the toughest team to mock every year on account of all their movement and surprise picks.

29 PIT (11-5) - LeVeon Bell - RB - Michigan State
This kid is special. He has the size of a fullback but has one of the best spin moves in the nation, and his vertical is insane. Would be shocked if he isn't selected in the first round, probably even higher than this. Team he goes to likely depends on what RBs get injured or don't perform well.

30 SF (12-4) - Demontre Moore - OLB - Texas A&M

With no glaring needs and solid youth at just about every position, the niners are in a prime position to draft bpa for depth in 2013. One position they lack depth is OLB, and I think Demontre Moore's stock is going to skyrocket. Just watched him destroy Florida's oline and future nfl tackle Chaz Greeen last week, and think he's way better than the projected 2nd-3rd round he is now.

31 HOU (11-5) - Jake Matthews - RT - Texas A&M
The right side of their offensive line has been a mess since the departure of Eric Winston. This should shore it up.

32 GB (12-4) - Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama
The other RBs in this tier have been less than stellar. I see a lot of movement in the RB ranks from now until draft day, aside from Lattimore and Bell I think those 2 guys are locks to be 1st rounders out of sheer talent.


Did not change a whole lot in the later part of the draft. Comments always appreciated! Tried to incorporate the comments from last weeks mock into this one.
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Old 09-24-2012, 11:51 AM    (permalink
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Tyler Wilson > Logan Thomas for KC please!
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Old 09-24-2012, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Tyler Wilson > Logan Thomas for KC please!
What this man said
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Old 09-24-2012, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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I would love Jarvis Jones opposite Robert Mathis. Bummer that we have no 2nd rounder though.
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Old 09-24-2012, 12:33 PM    (permalink
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Robcards

Joeckel and Reid to the Rams are just what the Doctor ordered. I see the Rams switching back and forth from offense and defense through the first 3 rounds so this mock works in that respect also....
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Old 09-24-2012, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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Tyler Wilson > Logan Thomas for KC please!
Can you elaborate? And don't say Wilson has more potential again lol
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Old 09-24-2012, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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I do believe Wilson has more potential. You see a lot more in Thomas, and that's fine, but I don't see anything in his game to think he'll be good in the NFL.
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Old 09-24-2012, 03:54 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by vidae View Post
I do believe Wilson has more potential. You see a lot more in Thomas, and that's fine, but I don't see anything in his game to think he'll be good in the NFL.
I think you have a different definition of potential...
Potential means how good that player could become, because he likely has physical traits that you cannot teach such as strong arm and ideal size and speed and so forth.

So, in regards to potential, here's some things you look for in a QB:

Height - Advantage Logan Thomas. 6'6" vs 6'2 which likely will be 6'1 or less at the combine
Arm strength - Advantage Logan Thomas
Mobility - Advantage Logan Thomas

Where exactly does Tyler Wilson get more potential from? He is more NFL ready, to be sure, but that's not potential, that's the opposite of potential.

Vague statements like 'Tyler Wilson > Logan Thomas' get us no where. I want to know exactly why you think Wilson is better.

Last edited by Robcards : 09-24-2012 at 03:58 PM.
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Old 09-24-2012, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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I think Tyler Wilson is way too low and Robert Woods is way too high.

And Thomas will end up going around that spot.
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Old 09-24-2012, 05:21 PM    (permalink
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Potential does not only mean physical traits.
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Old 09-24-2012, 05:26 PM    (permalink
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Potential does not only mean physical traits.
Ok... Like what? Please tell me why you're so big on him! Right now I think he's highly overrated. He did great with 3 mid-round WRs to throw to but he's got a lot to prove this year. What do you see in Tyler Wilson that makes you think he has more potential than Thomas. Be specific please!
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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Rather see the Bengals take DE, CB, or S over a RB.
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:41 PM    (permalink
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Rather see the Bengals take DE, CB, or S over a RB.
Really? Dunlap and Johnson at DE seem solid, Hall and Kirkpatrick at CB, Nelson and Mays at S I guess could be better but def not enough to say you need to spend a round 1 pick on. I mean if the Bengals don't take Lattimore, us Jets fans will be dancing in the streets I'm sure. Not sure who else has that big of a need at RB to take him in the first, Falcons maybe
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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Really? Dunlap and Johnson at DE seem solid, Hall and Kirkpatrick at CB, Nelson and Mays at S I guess could be better but def not enough to say you need to spend a round 1 pick on. I mean if the Bengals don't take Lattimore, us Jets fans will be dancing in the streets I'm sure. Not sure who else has that big of a need at RB to take him in the first, Falcons maybe
Dunlap can't stay healthy, Michael Johnson is way too inconstant and is FA, Hall has heath problems lately, Kirkpatrick has yet to play a down, Nelson is so so nothing special, and Mays is awful. The Defense is ****** this year and proves that the Bengals depth is not that good on defense. They can live with the RBs they have.
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Old 09-24-2012, 06:58 PM    (permalink
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DE is likely if they let Johnson go but you don't spend a high draft pick on a cb or safety only to replace them a year or two later so not buying cb or s. I'm not saying you can't live with the rbs you got, but I think it's be a mistake to pass on Lattimore in the Bengals position
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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DE is likely if they let Johnson go but you don't spend a high draft pick on a cb or safety only to replace them a year or two later so not buying cb or s. I'm not saying you can't live with the rbs you got, but I think it's be a mistake to pass on Lattimore in the Bengals position
The Bengals have Nate Clements and Terrence Newman as starting Corner/Safety how the **** can you not see a Corner or Safety in the 1st. They are very slow in the backfield and they can be seen watching them play this year.
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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The Bengals have Nate Clements and Terrence Newman as starting Corner/Safety how the **** can you not see a Corner or Safety in the 1st. They are very slow in the backfield and they can be seen watching them play this year.
Are those your starting corners for 2013? Who cares what their corners are now with hall and Kirkpatrick injured?
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:23 PM    (permalink
Pat Sims 90
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Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
Are those your starting corners for 2013? Who cares what their corners are now with hall and Kirkpatrick injured?
You need at least 3 or 4 starting corners now in the NFL. Nate Clements is the starting safety not corner because Mays and Miles suck.
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Old 09-24-2012, 07:47 PM    (permalink
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Logan Thomas has proven nothing and is far too erratic to be deemed a player with high upside. He needs to stay another year as he is regressing greatly.
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What's with the hate on Ricky Stanzi? Those youtube clips of him with the hulk hogan theme music instantly make him better than Luck.
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Old 09-24-2012, 08:08 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Pat Sims 90 View Post
You need at least 3 or 4 starting corners now in the NFL. Nate Clements is the starting safety not corner because Mays and Miles suck.
What about the guy from the Texans, Allen is it?
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Old 09-24-2012, 08:10 PM    (permalink
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Logan Thomas has proven nothing and is far too erratic to be deemed a player with high upside. He needs to stay another year as he is regressing greatly.
Tannehill stunk it up last year at A&M and he was still drafted 8th because he was a strong armed tall and athletic kid with upside. Logan can pretty much stink this entire season and still be a first round pick on potential alone. Tyler Wilson, on the other hand, has high stock due to his nfl readiness and if he struggles this season his stock will plummet.
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Old 09-24-2012, 10:04 PM    (permalink
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What about the guy from the Texans, Allen is it?
He has not taken a snap in preseason and the 1st 3 games because of injury.
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Old 09-24-2012, 10:35 PM    (permalink
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Tennessee's poor rushing defense so far is a bit misleading. Sen'Derrick Marks, our starting UT was out until this past Sunday. Our starting MLB Colin McCarthy has been out since halfway through game 1 against the Pats. And our safeties have been playing 20-25 yards off of the line of scrimmage because they are so poor in the box and also so terrible in coverage.
Where our defense really needs improvement is in its pass rush and at safety. Other than that, our main need is along the offensive line's interior.
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Old 09-25-2012, 12:17 AM    (permalink
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What's wrong with Morgan and Wimbley? And interior line and safety are typically drafted later, only a handful of interior linemen and safeties get taken 1st round (in this mock I have 2 safeties and 2 interior linemen, which is about normal)
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Old 09-25-2012, 02:18 AM    (permalink
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You forgot Matt Barkley. Who I'd rather have personally. Geno's fine though.
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