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Old 09-27-2012, 09:26 PM    (permalink
Eazy Picks
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Default Eazy Picks Week 4

Last week was crazy, went 9-7 SU and 8-8 ATS, bring my season totals to 31-17 SU and 26-19-3 ATS. Lets see if I can get back on track this week. You can also see all this on my website eazypicks.com



Week 4 Picks

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
This is a divisional matchup that the Ravens have dominated for some time, and there’s no good reason to expect it to end here. Cleveland is again without their best defensive back, Joe Haden, and could have a hard time stopping Joe Flacco. The Eagles The Ravens are coming off a huge but mentally exhausting win on Sunday night, so there is some concern that they won’t show up for this game. However, the Ravens are too good at home and seem too focused to let the Browns beat them.
SU Pick: Ravens
ATS Pick: Ravens -12

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
The Panthers have had a lot of time to think about their embarrassing loss against the Giants last Thursday, and need a win this week to stop the Falcons from running away with a division title. Cam Newton has been struggling lately, and will be going up against a Falcon defense that is playing at a high level right now. The Panthers’ secondary is a real point of weakness, which could mean a big game for Matt Ryan, who has been dominant at home.
SU Pick: Falcons
ATS Pick: Faloons -8

Patriots (1-2) at Bills (2-1)
The Bills have a chance to do something that seems unthinkable based on recent history: establish a 2-game lead in the AFC South. After back-to-back losses by a total of 4 points, the Patriots have a losing record for the first time in nearly 10 years. The Bills will be missing running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, which is going to put a lot of pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead the team to a win. It’s hard to think Brady and the Patriots won’t bring their best in this crucial divisional matchup.
SU Pick: Patriots
ATS Pick: Patriots -4

Vikings (2-1) at Lions (1-2)
The Vikings are off to a surprising start thanks to the strong play of QB Christian Ponder, while the Lions have been struggling with consistency and discipline. Calvin Johnson could have a big game against a Viking secondary that struggled mightily last year and hasn’t really been tested this year. The NFC North is wide open right now, and anything can happen at this point.
SU Pick: Lions
ATS Pick: Lions -4

San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Things tightened up last week in the AFC West with the Chargers and Broncos losing and the Chiefs and Raiders getting their first wins. The Chiefs got their run game going last week against the Saints, but the Chargers’ D has been tough on the run this year. Phillip Rivers struggled against Atlanta last year, and will be going up against an underrated Chief defense this week. He is going to need his offensive line to keep pass-rushers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston off him.
SU Pick: Chiefs
ATS Pick: Chiefs -.5

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)
The Seahawks’ defense look a like a bunch of bullies to this point, and they will try to come to town and shut down the Rams. Sam Bradford could have a tough time working timing patterns with his receivers against the Seahawks’ press coverage, and he won’t have much time to let plays develop with his batted offensive line trying to block a defensive front that got 8 sacks in the first half last week. The Seahawks have been involved in a media circus this past week and will have to travel to St. Louis on a short week, so they may not be totally prepared for this game.
SU Pick: Seahawks
ATS Pick: Seahawks -1

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at New York Jets (2-1)
The 49ers are coming off a flat performance against the Vikings and need to crank up the intensity as they visit a team reeling from the loss of their best player for the season. There’s no reason the 49ers defense shouldn’t be able to shut down the Jets, but the came could be said about last week’s game against the Vikings. The 49ers should be able to get their run game going, and with Revis out, they should be able to throw the ball some as well.
SU Pick: 49ers
ATS Pick: 49ers -4

Tennessee (1-2) at Houston (3-0)
With a win here, the Texans can put an early hammer lock on the division title. Chris Johnson has been dancing around too much, and that will be a recipe for a lot of runs for losses against the Texans’ swarming defense. The Titan defense has been unimpressive so far, and it could be tough for them to stop the Texans’ balanced offensive attack. They will probably need more heroics from their special teams units to stay in this game.
SU Pick: Texans
ATS Pick: Texans -12

Oakland (1-2) at Denver (1-2)
Both these teams’ only wins have come against the Steelers, but the Broncos have played a much more challenging overall schedule. The Raiders injured secondary could easily get picked apart by Peyton Manning, but if the Raiders defensive line shows up for the game, they could have a chance here. Carson Palmer has quietly been having a strong year and will look to keep it going against the Broncos.
SU Pick: Broncos
ATS Pick: Raiders +7.5
Miami (1-2) at Arizona (3-0)
Ryan Tannehill is going to have another big test this week against the Cardinals’ defense, which has been dominant thus far. Reggie Bush is banged up and might not play, which will put that much more pressure on the young signal caller. The Cardinals will be without Beanie Wells, but HB Ryan Williams played excellent last week in his relief. The Cardinals shouldn’t need to score a ton of points to win this game, and if QB Kevin Kolb feeds WR Larry Fitzgerald the football, he should provide enough offense to win this game.
SU Pick: Cardinals
ATS Pick: Cardinals -6

Cincinnati (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2)
The Bengals’ defense has not looked great thus far, and their big challenge this week will be slowing down HB Maurice Jones-Drew. WR AJ Green is having a sensational year, and the Jacksonville secondary will have a tough task in trying to cover him up. If the Jaguars can get a good push from their front four, they should have a good shot at slowing down the Bengal offense.
SU Pick: Jaguars
ATS Pick: Jaguars +1

New Orleans (0-3) at Green Bay (1-2)
Nobody would have expected that these teams would have a combined total of 1 win after 3 weeks, which means both teams are desperate for a win so they can get back in the race. The Packers are pissed off coming into this game because of the horrible officiating that cost them last week’s game, but they need to harness that anger. The Packer offense has been somewhat stagnant, but they should be able to get rolling again with the Saints’ porous defense coming to town. Green Bay’s defense is looking really good right now, so QB Drew Brees is going to need to play great to lead his team to victory.
SU Pick: Packers
ATS Pick: Packers -8

Washington Redskins (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
QB Josh Freeman will look to have a big day against a Washington defense that is clearly struggling because of the injuries they have sustained. Freeman should have plenty of time to stand in the pocket and find Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams downfield. Robert Griffin has been putting up a lot of points, and the Bucs will have to find a way to contain him without their best pass-rusher, Adrian Clayborn. The Bucs’ cover 2 style defense will present a new challenge for Griffin.
SU Pick: Buccaneers
ATS Pick: Buccaneers -1

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
The Giants seem to have recaptured their Super Bowl form, while the Eagles offense appears totally out of whack. The Eagles offensive line has suffered some key injuries, which is a bad thing when Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora are coming to town. Michael Vick will need to elevate his game if the Eagles are going to win this critical NFC East showdown. Eli Manning is playing great right now, but he will be going against one of the league’s best pass defenses, so that should be a good battle.
SU Pick: Giants
ATS Pick: Giants +1

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
The Cowboys’ revamped secondary has looked very good thus far, and should be able to match up well with the Bears’ big receivers. Bears LT J’Marcus Webb has been struggling, and that could be an issue against DeMarcus Ware. QB Tony Romo needs to be judicious with the ball and not make mistakes against a Chicago defense that does a great job forcing turnovers. If they can establish the run game with Demarco Murray, it should really help set up the offense.
SU Pick: Cowboys
ATS Pick: Cowboys -3
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Old 09-27-2012, 09:49 PM    (permalink
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Pats and Bills are in the AFC East and the Pats have lost their last two games by a combined 3 points. (FYI)

Nice write up.
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Old 09-27-2012, 10:36 PM    (permalink
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thx for the correction
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:26 AM    (permalink
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You pick too many favorites.

Already you're 0-1 ATS because of that flaw. 10+ point spreads are just too much in the modern-day NFL with such high levels of parity.
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Old 09-28-2012, 02:52 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by J-Spot View Post
You pick too many favorites.

Already you're 0-1 ATS because of that flaw. 10+ point spreads are just too much in the modern-day NFL with such high levels of parity.
blowouts still happen all the time. Ravens coulda easily won that game by a lot more, thats just how it went. I generally shy away from huge spreads, if I was actually betting, Id be putting it mostly on spreads under 7 points and would buy 1/2 points so that I get spreads like 2.5, 6.5, etc...But Im picking ATS for every game so in these case of lopsided matchups like CLE-BAL or HOU-TEN, I have to consider what the pace of the game will be and if I expect one team to be dominant. Teams know crazy things can happen, so they never wanna leave it a one score game, and if they have another team overmatched, they will take it to em...The Texans generally do a great job of blowing out crap teams...The Ravens actually usually don't, but I thought Flacco was gonna have a big day against that secondary and Weeden would do terrible. Flacco had a lot of yards but just didnt have the TDs and Weeden actually played alright. Also, Dawson went 3/3 on FGs of 50+, while the Ravens kicker missed one from inside 50....Ravens coulda easily covered.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:00 AM    (permalink
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I don't know why you assumed that Weeden would do terrible.

If you studied the NFL through three weeks like I did, you'd realize that this Ravens defense is simply not that good this year. It's not even in the top-10.
They've given up a ton of yards and points in their first three games, and it's obvious that the loss of Suggs will be a huge problem for them.

The Texans are a safer bet to cover a double-digit spread and blow out teams because their defense *is* a legit top-3 unit.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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I don't know why you assumed that Weeden would do terrible.

If you studied the NFL through three weeks like I did, you'd realize that this Ravens defense is simply not that good this year. It's not even in the top-10.
They've given up a ton of yards and points in their first three games, and it's obvious that the loss of Suggs will be a huge problem for them.

The Texans are a safer bet to cover a double-digit spread and blow out teams because their defense *is* a legit top-3 unit.
you're a pretentious little ******, aren't you?
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BTW, if it's 3rd and 97... I'm throwing a screen pass to Brian Leonard and he will convert.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:25 AM    (permalink
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you're a pretentious little ******, aren't you?
You're only saying that because you didn't study the first 3 weeks of the NFL season the way he did.

oh and if we assume Weeden would've been a top ten pick if he weren't 40 he's clearly a steal...
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Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.
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Most misleading 10+ sack season EVER.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:33 AM    (permalink
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Picking only 3 underdogs, you're going to have a bad time.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:47 AM    (permalink
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Picking only 3 underdogs, you're going to have a bad time.
Wasting your money on sports bets where you have no control of the outcome, you're gonna have a bad time.
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I heard that Sylvester Stallone wrote The Expendables with The Alex in mind. He had to keep it realistic though and split The Alex's abilities into multiple characters. Stallone thought that critics would pan it for being too far-fetched if he just had one character effing everyone up.
The end. Cut to black. Audience goes ****ing ape****.
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Old 09-28-2012, 10:53 AM    (permalink
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Wasting your money on sports bets where you have no control of the outcome, you're gonna have a bad time.
I've been doing pretty well so far in one of the new sites I write for, and our head writer is hot with his picks. All it takes is some research and stats and you'll be over .500 and have fun :)
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Old 09-28-2012, 12:53 PM    (permalink
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Look guys its not like Im afraid to pick underdogs, just this week I happen to like the favorites. I consider the matchups and make the picks...maybe Ill be wrong we'll see. Weeks 1 and 3 were madness and I ended up a little .500, week 2 things went more like I expected and I got almost everything right. Only time will tell what happens this week.


And to the guy talking about the Ravens D, I quite simply disagree they are not a top 10 unit. They are going through some struggles, true, but I believe before the year is over, they will be once again considered among the leagues elite. Edge-rushing is an issue right now, but they have a lot of talented OLBs even without Suggs, and I think we'll see some guys start to step up, I really like their rookie Upshaw. Paul Kruger is underrated, and also like another young defender they have, McPhee. The thing that I really like about this team is their young group of corners. Webb is a top-flight corner, and Cary Williams and Jimmy Smith are ready to come into their own soon. Reed is still playing at a high level.

The D is suffering from some inconsistencies, but I honestly dont think the Texans defense is much better than the Ravens. Ill take the Ravens secondary over the Texans 10 times out of 10. The Texan front 7 is a little better, but not that much. The Ravens have also lost their DC, Pagano, and I think there is some adjustment period going on, but the Ravens have produced one great DC after another, so Im expecting Dean Peas to do well. Give the unit some time. At the end of the day, I think the Ravens were just mentally exhausted and thats why they let the Browns keep the game closer than it shoulda been. I kinda anticipated that, but then I just didnt think the Cleveland secondary would be able to stop Flacco, but he wasnt playing his best, probly cuz he knew he didnt need to.


Texans are a good team to cover big spreads because they have the attitude of keeping pouring it on when theyre way up, where as the Ravens have the bad habit of letting teams hang around and playing down to their competition, not because theyre better. cant wait for week 7 when the ravens come to h-town, should be a great game.

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Old 09-28-2012, 12:55 PM    (permalink
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Yay Chiefs.
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Old 09-28-2012, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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I'm totally a favorite better. At least I used to be, with selective success. I miss when we did the Handicapping competition here. Gambling, in general, really.

To note, Fred Jackson should be playing this week. Not sure if that sways you, at all.
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Old 09-28-2012, 01:52 PM    (permalink
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I'm totally a favorite better. At least I used to be, with selective success. I miss when we did the Handicapping competition here. Gambling, in general, really.

To note, Fred Jackson should be playing this week. Not sure if that sways you, at all.
yeah i just heard that. makes me a feel a lil less good about the Pats, but I still gotta take em, they need the win too bad to not show up for this one.
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