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Old 10-16-2012, 03:41 PM    (permalink
abaddon41_80
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The 49ers, over the past two seasons, are in the bottom half of the league in YAC/catch and in the top five in drops/pass attempt. Smith had a higher percentage of air yardage last year than Brady, Newton and Stafford and the same percentage as Rodgers. Smith's Y/A numbers are not misleading at all. This is from before this week,

http://i.imgur.com/9zqIl.jpg

Smith can definitely throw accurate deep passes. Smith is a little gunshy at times but you can't really blame him for all of it. When is the last time you remember a 49ers receivers making a good catch in good coverage? If Smith throws to a covered receiver the ball almost always falls incomplete.

Having said all of that, I agree that he was terrible against the Giants. I didn't see that many open receivers down the field but he definitely missed a handful. That could have something to do with the fact that the Giants took away the only real receiving threat that the 49ers have and had Smith on the run all game. Smith really can't win, though. People crucified Smith last year against the Giants for not throwing it deep. There was one play in particular, this one with Walker, that people pointed towards to establish Smith's reluctance to throw deep. The first interception he threw on Sunday was the exact same play, with the players being in almost the exact same position. Smith throws it this time and it is intercepted, he was stupid to throw it. Smith didn't throw it last time, he was stupid to not throw it.
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Old 10-16-2012, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Ness View Post
You can probably count the number of quarterbacks on one hand in the last 25 years that can elevate a team full of street free agents to actually being decent players. It might be hard to believe, but in a team oriented sport like football, other players doing their job and and doing it well matters. Obviously you need a guy at the QB position that doesn't need to be dragged by everyone else, but you're going to be wasting your time trying to find a Peyton Manning that comes out once every 15 years or so.

We should call this the Archie Manning effect, who was actually thought to be a very talented player on a God-awful team.
Agree. It was only a couple of weeks ago how people were talking about Cam Newton being able to carry a weak supporting cast and he looked bad against the Seahawks defense.

Minor correction. There was no doubt that Archie Manning was a good QB. Ironically unlike the boys, the old man was quite the scrambler.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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Elevating those around you doesn't nec mean taking bad players and making them look good. It can mean taking talented players to the next level. Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Eli, Ben, Romo, Peyton etc all do this. Tan shill does it with guys like Hartline, who came out of nowhere. Cutler did it with guys like Hester, Knox, Aroshumadu. Eli does it with guys like Hixon, Randle, Barden. Bree's with just about anyone, etc. Romo with guys like Oggletree, or the scrub last year who signed a contract with Jacksonville who magically looks mediocre again.

It happens all over the NFL. Franchise qbs elevate those around them.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:23 PM    (permalink
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Not enough Jets talk. We were by all intents and purposes pegged as a bottom 5 team by everyone on this board deservedly so with a struggling qb, a who's who of crap on offense, and injuries to our best players.

Now look, we're 500 sitting atop the AFC East. If we can beat the patriots this week, we'll make the playoffs. You can book it.

Thanks for giving props to Cromartie. Dude is a stud.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:35 PM    (permalink
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Not enough Jets talk. We were by all intents and purposes pegged as a bottom 5 team by everyone on this board deservedly so with a struggling qb, a who's who of crap on offense, and injuries to our best players.

Now look, we're 500 sitting atop the AFC East. If we can beat the patriots this week, we'll make the playoffs. You can book it.

Thanks for giving props to Cromartie. Dude is a stud.
Why would anybody be talking about the Jets? They're about as decidedly mediocre as anybody right now, and while they still have a shot at the playoffs and even the division the team isn't going to make any noise if they make it to the playoffs, and has one of the bleakest futures in the entire NFL.

They're stuck with an shallow roster full of overpaid players with their best player on IR with a knee injury. They haven't had a good draft in 4 years, and long term they have No QB, RB, WR, LG, RT, LB's besides David Harris, FS, and SS. Plus they have no cap room moving forward, and even have to cut 3 contributors and possibly lose another in Keller just to stay under it.

But hey at least they have Tebow.

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Old 10-16-2012, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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I don't think anybody is doing any different coverages with Stafford, that's being over-played. You don't think everybody was rolling and bracketing Calvin all last year? If you don't the question would be why not? It's not like we needed to see all of 2011 to go "hey, they look to Calvin a lot, bracket him and force it elsewhere".


In fact, this has been how you defended Detroit since the second season of Calvin. Now Stafford is regressing, but it's it funny how as a whole majority of people look at that regression different then a Cam Newton?


Cam Newton starts to slump, and all of a sudden he's a gimmick, can't read defenses, can't pass, coordinators caught up to him, everything you can think of to diminish him as a player is the reason. Why is the same not said for Stafford? You just don't hear those same excuses. Players go through slumps, I'm not worried about either player.


Stafford is a stud, last year wasn't a fluke. It's not always going to be a 5000/40 type of year for a QB.



On the topic of Atkins, I agree he needs more love, but honestly so does McCoy. I'm not taking Geno over McCoy if I need a 4-3 UT. McCoy is a monster, he's been getting slighted ever since all the Suh crowd came out during that rookie year going "hahahahha what idiots were interchanging Suh and McCoy this was clear Suh is so much better" and that's all you heard.


It wasn't they were both good, or any debate, just praise Suh, laugh at McCoy for even being considered half as good. For this year thus far, McCoy has absolutely played better then Suh has, and when he's been on the field he's always looked dominant. I feel like he's been underrated since he got drafted for some reason.
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Old 10-16-2012, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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I'm not worried about either Stafford or Cam. I'm simply pointing out why Stafford isn't playing well. I have no doubt hell be ok. But he does need to make his progressions, that's all.

I agree McCoy is playing better, but I don't see how you can take him over Atkins right now. What about his game is any better than Atkins? Atkins has him beat at every facet of their games.
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Old 10-16-2012, 05:26 PM    (permalink
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I've been an avid NFL fan since I could remember, and I think players like a John Elway, Peyton Manning(not even being a homer, his colt days speak for themself) are on another level when it comes to playing QB.

Elway took teams that were as talented as some prep high schools in flordia to the super bowl in the 80's single handedly.

Peyton made players such as Austin Collie, Anthony Gonzales, Jacob Tamme etc... very good players. He also is pretty much running everything on the field(no one in the NFL has done or does what Manning does at the line with protections and checkdowns and what not)


1983 and 1998 are the last drafts in my mind that have produced a QB that is capable of carrying his team single handedly and making them a threat. Sure neither Elway or Manning have the most SB wins, but that is when being able to make practice squad players decent runs out when it actually becomes ELITE competition.

But both Manning and Elway were/are capable of taking a bum of the streets and winning games.


This aludes to the other side of the spectrum of Matt Ryans, and Troy Aikmens that were surrounded by talent.

Give me a guy like Elway or Manning and build around them the product is HOF players such as Marvin Harrison, Shannon Sharpe etc. at the skill positions.
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Old 10-16-2012, 05:28 PM    (permalink
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It's very rare to see a QB going through their entire progression tree anymore. I can see why, with these big, athletic pass rushers that can dip under Tackles and extend their arms to knock the ball out of your hand in two seconds. It seems like a lot of QB's are going (1, checkdown) or (1,2, throw it out of bounds, look for scramble opportunity)

I think only a handful of QB's know how to effectively use all 5 eligibles provided they're not blocking, and have the patience to actually get to them and deliver an accurate throw. (the Manning's, Brady, Brees etc)

I think with Stafford it's tempting because you have a freakish talent like Calvin Johnson that has that size and speed, you feel like if you throw it anywhere near the area he'll go up and get it, and last year he was routinely making circus catches in double, sometimes even triple coverage.

You have to be careful though because you can't consistently do that, no one can. Not even Moss in his prime. The numbers say if you're going 2 against 1 time, and time again eventually the 2 will catch up and win. Stafford will eventually learn to become a more patient QB, hopefully the complimentary guys can step up for him and in turn it should create some more opportunities for Calvin in the long run.
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Old 10-16-2012, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by soybean View Post
Not enough Jets talk. We were by all intents and purposes pegged as a bottom 5 team by everyone on this board deservedly so with a struggling qb, a who's who of crap on offense, and injuries to our best players.

Now look, we're 500 sitting atop the AFC East. If we can beat the patriots this week, we'll make the playoffs. You can book it.

Thanks for giving props to Cromartie. Dude is a stud.
It's kind of nice not being the center of attention for once.

And yes BBD, thanks for giving props to Cro. He has stepped up big in Revis' absence. One of the few bright spots on the Jets this year.
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Old 10-16-2012, 06:07 PM    (permalink
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It's very rare to see a QB going through their entire progression tree anymore. I can see why, with these big, athletic pass rushers that can dip under Tackles and extend their arms to knock the ball out of your hand in two seconds. It seems like a lot of QB's are going (1, checkdown) or (1,2, throw it out of bounds, look for scramble opportunity)

I think only a handful of QB's know how to effectively use all 5 eligibles provided they're not blocking, and have the patience to actually get to them and deliver an accurate throw. (the Manning's, Brady, Brees etc)

I think with Stafford it's tempting because you have a freakish talent like Calvin Johnson that has that size and speed, you feel like if you throw it anywhere near the area he'll go up and get it, and last year he was routinely making circus catches in double, sometimes even triple coverage.

You have to be careful though because you can't consistently do that, no one can. Not even Moss in his prime. The numbers say if you're going 2 against 1 time, and time again eventually the 2 will catch up and win. Stafford will eventually learn to become a more patient QB, hopefully the complimentary guys can step up for him and in turn it should create some more opportunities for Calvin in the long run.
The proper progression reading from a qb should be:

1. Pre-snap read/hard count, motions etc to get a better read on what the defense is doing. Try to decipher the disguise by looking at hints along the DL, LB core, player stances, depth of safeties etc.
2. Adjustsments to protections/routes as necessary
3. Hike the ball
4. Read the defense
5. Look off the safety/LB
6. Hit the guy who is open based on the coverage given
7. If he's not open, then 2,3,4 etc progressions

Do that all within 2 to 3 missippi, and get the ball out. Realistically you should do all of that within 2 missippi.
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Old 10-16-2012, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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from all the Chiefsgames I've watched...Routt has gotten burnt more then Flowers has
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Old 10-16-2012, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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Why would anybody be talking about the Jets? They're about as decidedly mediocre as anybody right now, and while they still have a shot at the playoffs and even the division the team isn't going to make any noise if they make it to the playoffs, and has one of the bleakest futures in the entire NFL.

They're stuck with an shallow roster full of overpaid players with their best player on IR with a knee injury. They haven't had a good draft in 4 years, and long term they have No QB, RB, WR, LG, RT, LB's besides David Harris, FS, and SS. Plus they have no cap room moving forward, and even have to cut 3 contributors and possibly lose another in Keller just to stay under it.

But hey at least they have Tebow.
Pretty much this, congrats on beating up the colts tho. And the bills, real measuring sticks of how good the Jets are.....

Also loved the bad QB part BBD, the excuses have gotten out of control around here and nice to have some one bring it up and point out how terrible that logic is.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:17 PM    (permalink
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Great QBs in terrible situations will have bad games, but they will also have a ton of huge moments too. There is no baseline, but when it's just a really bad situation, that's when you see high yardage, high TDs, and high INT combos. These guys that just throw picks and can't move the ball get way
too much of the benefit of the doubt.

It's really maddening because even in the case of Eli "getting it" down the line, he's a guy with big time tools and potential, and had plenty of flashes. Teams are just hanging on way too long to guys that have never flashed greatness, and have mediocre tools to boot (Smith, Sanchez, etc)

People at my work and other places that talk about football seem to flip flop on who their superbowl pick is daily, and it always seems to be a team that has lackluster QB play but is awesome all the way around.

The way I feel is that if you don't have Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Big Ben, or a Manning, you aren't winning it this year. Matt Stafford is going backwards this year, and the other young QBs aren't ready to plunge themselves into the elite, but the future sure does look bright for guys like Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, even Newton at times.

BBD, you seem to be an extremely intelligent guy, and you clearly know your football, but I think you tend to(and I do as well sometimes) have a lot of confirmation bias
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:21 PM    (permalink
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I was so wrong about Mark Barron

I'll keep this one short. I thought that was a bad draft pick. I was wrong. He looks like a stud.
This makes me happy.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:27 PM    (permalink
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I don't think anybody is doing any different coverages with Stafford, that's being over-played. You don't think everybody was rolling and bracketing Calvin all last year? If you don't the question would be why not? It's not like we needed to see all of 2011 to go "hey, they look to Calvin a lot, bracket him and force it elsewhere".


In fact, this has been how you defended Detroit since the second season of Calvin. Now Stafford is regressing, but it's it funny how as a whole majority of people look at that regression different then a Cam Newton?


Cam Newton starts to slump, and all of a sudden he's a gimmick, can't read defenses, can't pass, coordinators caught up to him, everything you can think of to diminish him as a player is the reason. Why is the same not said for Stafford? You just don't hear those same excuses. Players go through slumps, I'm not worried about either player.

Stafford, Luck, and Jay Cutler (mainly only on this board) get passes for some reason.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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I think Stafford will be fine. It's probably a lot to do with him being a brash young gunslinger who had a MONSTER year last year. Reality is giving him a good kick in the nuts this year. I have no doubt he'll continue to improve and make his way into being an elite QB. He has a long way to go.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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Luck deserves a pass. He's a rookie who flashes great potential. When I watch him play I'm amazed at how he looks. He doesn't look like a rookie at all. His ability to change protections, audible, pocket presence, progression reading, the guy plays like a vet. He'll naturally go through growing pains but his development is amazing.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:34 PM    (permalink
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Great QBs in terrible situations will have bad games, but they will also have a ton of huge moments too. There is no baseline, but when it's just a really bad situation, that's when you see high yardage, high TDs, and high INT combos. These guys that just throw picks and can't move the ball get way
too much of the benefit of the doubt.

It's really maddening because even in the case of Eli "getting it" down the line, he's a guy with big time tools and potential, and had plenty of flashes. Teams are just hanging on way too long to guys that have never flashed greatness, and have mediocre tools to boot (Smith, Sanchez, etc)

People at my work and other places that talk about football seem to flip flop on who their superbowl pick is daily, and it always seems to be a team that has lackluster QB play but is awesome all the way around.

The way I feel is that if you don't have Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Big Ben, or a Manning, you aren't winning it this year. Matt Stafford is going backwards this year, and the other young QBs aren't ready to plunge themselves into the elite, but the future sure does look bright for guys like Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, even Newton at times.

BBD, you seem to be an extremely intelligent guy, and you clearly know your football, but I think you tend to(and I do as well sometimes) have a lot of confirmation bias
Confirmation bias? Excuse my ignorance. I'm not exactly sure what that means? I'm being an after the fact kind of guy?
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:36 PM    (permalink
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My main takeaway from BBD's post is that the Bears are gonna win the Super Bowl, so I'm pretty content.

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Stafford, Luck, and Jay Cutler (mainly only on this board) get passes for some reason.
Well Cutler is awesome, so that could have something to do with it.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:37 PM    (permalink
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Confirmation bias? Excuse my ignorance. I'm not exactly sure what that means? I'm being an after the fact kind of guy?
It means you have an opinion of a guy, watch the guy, and see it in a way that confirms your original opinion. I don't know if that's the case with you, but a lot of posters on this board are that way.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:39 PM    (permalink
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NOT ONE MENTION OF THAT GREAT MONDAY NIGHT COMEBACK?
Peyton Manning for MVP
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:40 PM    (permalink
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My main takeaway from BBD's post is that the Bears are gonna win the Super Bowl, so I'm pretty content.


Well Cutler is awesome, so that could have something to do with it.
Depends which Cutler shows up. Good Cutler gives you a chance. Bad Cutler doesn't.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:43 PM    (permalink
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Cromartie is balling out right now. He actually had two TDs called back last week on BOGUS flags.
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Old 10-16-2012, 08:44 PM    (permalink
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It means you have an opinion of a guy, watch the guy, and see it in a way that confirms your original opinion. I don't know if that's the case with you, but a lot of posters on this board are that way.
That's fair. I'll agree with that. I think we're all somewhat guilty of it. I'll admit when I'm wrong though, or I'll try to at least. But yes, I have bias in my arguments.
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