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Old 11-09-2012, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Matthew Jones View Post
I'm equally concerned with Smith's struggles against quality defenses, but look at Wilson's statistics this year: five touchdowns against 1-9 Kentucky, three touchdowns against a FCS team the Razorbacks paid so that they could pad their stats, and an 8:8 TD/INT ratio in the other six games. Arkansas is easily one of the most disappointing teams of the year and their most impressive win was a 19-15 victory over Tulsa last week. If you're going to rip Smith for his losses, it's only fair to look at what Wilson has done against quality teams.
Wilson has Cobi Hamilton and.. who? The rest of that team, both sides of the ball, is just awful. His three best receivers were in the last draft and his HC was fired because he was caught boning some 20 year old blonde chick.

The situation there just sucks for him. If teams put on his junior tape they'll be a lot more impressed.
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Old 11-09-2012, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Wilson looked good against Rutgers, which is probably the best D he faced. I LOVE his toughness and his attitude. I think he'll do well in the league. I'm a fan.
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Old 11-09-2012, 10:30 AM    (permalink
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Billick chose poorly and got fired in part because he bet (and lost) on Kyle Boller.

If you do not have a franchise caliber QB on your roster, you have to get one ASAP. It absolutely trumps BPA in my mind. Until you have one in place, you are not going to approach a championship.

While Wilson/Geno/Barkley may not be as strong of group as in previous years, the Chiefs failing to take one of them with the #1 pick should cause rioting. Every decision maker in the organization should be drug into the street to be drawn and quartered. You do not win in today's league without a QB, and when you are picking that high, you have to take whoever is available.
Billick's ability to evaluate a quarterback has nothing to do with the overall theory. If anything, the Kyle Boller situation reinforces the theory that if you draft a quarterback high, your job is closely tied to their success or failure. Just drafting someone in the first round doesn't make them a franchise quarterback.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:14 AM    (permalink
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You can only draft a franchise QB on message boards. NFL teams have to take risks and draft college QBs. Some college QBs, such as Luck, are much less risky than others, but the Chiefs don't appear to have the option of a prospect like Luck. They have to do something at QB. Being scared to take a risk is not a solution. If it was, they wouldn't be where they are right now.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:21 AM    (permalink
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Allow me to rephrase then, your first order of business needs to be to find a QB you think can be a franchise QB. Putting that off is just wasted time because you are extremely unlikely to succeed without doing so.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:23 AM    (permalink
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You can only draft a franchise QB on message boards. NFL teams have to take risks and draft college QBs. Some college QBs, such as Luck, are much less risky than others, but the Chiefs don't appear to have the option of a prospect like Luck. They have to do something at QB. Being scared to take a risk is not a solution. If it was, they wouldn't be where they are right now.
Scared money don't make money. If you wont draft a QB unless he's a perfect prospect like Luck, you're going to wait for a loooooong time.

Also, Blaine Gabbert sucks, and the Jaguars suck.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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Seems like just yesterday people were talking about how bad the Colts offensive line is. They were even missing 2 additional starters last night, yet with Luck in there he makes the entire line look like a really good group. It's amazing what a QB with high awareness and great pocket presence can do for an offensive line.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:35 AM    (permalink
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Scared money don't make money. If you wont draft a QB unless he's a perfect prospect like Luck, you're going to wait for a loooooong time.

Also, Blaine Gabbert sucks, and the Jaguars suck.
Yeah it really is that simple, you don't get perfect prospects ever. Even Luck had some concerns (much less than pretty much anyone I can remember though). You draft a QB because you believe he can be, first of all an upgrade over what you have, and second of all a guy you can win a Superbowl with.

The kicker here is that while a QB is an extremely important part of any team, the are very few guys who can drag sub par rosters to those heights.

You should only draft a QB because you feel he can help you win. If you don't think the guy will make it there is no point in drafting him, however if the QB doesn't tick all the boxes but is a guy you can win with then you are an idiot for not taking a chance on him. No team drafts a guy thinking he is going to bust, doesn't matter if it is a QB, DT, CB etc.

For this reason, if KC for example think that Geno, Wilson, Barkley etc are all going to fail in the NFL then it is silly to draft any of them. However if they base there assumption of the fact that these guys aren't prototypical QB prospects then they deserve to be fired. All prospects have holes. Timid GMs are generally unsuccessful GMs.

And yes, your last two statements are both correct!
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:39 AM    (permalink
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If KC doesn't think that any one of those 3 guys can make it in the NFL then they need to fire their entire scouting department as well.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Yeah it really is that simple, you don't get perfect prospects ever. Even Luck had some concerns (much less than pretty much anyone I can remember though). You draft a QB because you believe he can be, first of all an upgrade over what you have, and second of all a guy you can win a Superbowl with.

The kicker here is that while a QB is an extremely important part of any team, the are very few guys who can drag sub par rosters to those heights.

You should only draft a QB because you feel he can help you win. If you don't think the guy will make it there is no point in drafting him, however if the QB doesn't tick all the boxes but is a guy you can win with then you are an idiot for not taking a chance on him. No team drafts a guy thinking he is going to bust, doesn't matter if it is a QB, DT, CB etc.

For this reason, if KC for example think that Geno, Wilson, Barkley etc are all going to fail in the NFL then it is silly to draft any of them. However if they base there assumption of the fact that these guys aren't prototypical QB prospects then they deserve to be fired. All prospects have holes. Timid GMs are generally unsuccessful GMs.

And yes, your last two statements are both correct!

Everybody is afraid of drafting a bust at QB, especially on these boards. No Lions fan wanted Stafford, let's just play it safe and get Aaron Curry. Matt Ryan might be elevating his play now, but there were a ton of Matt Hassalbeck comparisons floating around, and people didn't really think he was an elite caliber type of QB so he's not worth the #1 overall pick.


I don't even need to mention how everybody here hated Josh Freeman. That's why I don't blame the Jets for making a move for Sanchez, they may have to move on but they moved up for a guy they thought they had to have.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert is just...

I want to give him another year though. Am I an idiot for that? I mean, as awful as he is, and he is awful, he doesn't play scared anymore. Isn't that a start?

I want to give him another year. But if a good qb prospect is there, Jacksonville has to take him. Even if it means moving up to do so.
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Old 11-09-2012, 11:52 AM    (permalink
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Blaine Gabbert is just...

I want to give him another year though. Am I an idiot for that? I mean, as awful as he is, and he is awful, he doesn't play scared anymore. Isn't that a start?

I want to give him another year. But if a good qb prospect is there, Jacksonville has to take him. Even if it means moving up to do so.
That's part of the problem. Has there been improvement? Incrementally yes. And they came in areas where he was really, REALLY bad.

OTOH, he's gone from "worst QB I've ever seen" to "worst in the NFL." You'll see a nice drive or a nice quarter here and there from him, but then you look up and it's 24-3 by halftime and he's completed less than 50% of his passes. It's really hard to determine where the line is drawn between him sucking and everyone else sucking. It's just a big pile of suck, and they all drag each other down.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:02 PM    (permalink
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If KC doesn't think that any one of those 3 guys can make it in the NFL then they need to fire their entire scouting department as well.
I'm sure they will be fired when Pioli is fired.

Bottom line, is there a guy in this draft with the potential to be a "franchise" QB? Yes, I believe that there is. I think Geno and Tyler Wilson have that potential.

The bigger question is, will either of them realize that potential in KC? With the current coaching staff and front office decision makers? I find that hard to fathom that they'll get anything done in the NFL.

Regardless of how this team has looked, there is talent on offense. A young QB could come into much worse situations than what he'll have here in KC. We just need to get rid of Daboll and Zorn and find coaches who can develop the QB and give the offense some life.

And I'm generally the guy who doesn't want to draft a position just to draft one, but this is the exception. I don't care if we draft the biggest QB bust in the history of the NFL. I don't care if we draft someone and they never play a down for us. I don't care. I'm tired of not trying. When you realize you're envious of the Raiders and Jags, because at least they've tried to address their QB situation, you know you're in trouble.

Ugh now I'm depressed. I hate football.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Everybody is afraid of drafting a bust at QB, especially on these boards. No Lions fan wanted Stafford, let's just play it safe and get Aaron Curry. Matt Ryan might be elevating his play now, but there were a ton of Matt Hassalbeck comparisons floating around, and people didn't really think he was an elite caliber type of QB so he's not worth the #1 overall pick.


I don't even need to mention how everybody here hated Josh Freeman. That's why I don't blame the Jets for making a move for Sanchez, they may have to move on but they moved up for a guy they thought they had to have.
Yeah that is a big problem on forums and message boards in particular. Guys are either going to be hall of famers or busts. There is very seldom any middle ground.

As for being aggressive, I would much rather have a GM who struck out trying to make something happen than have someone who sits and waits for the right guy to come. I realise I have the comfort of this approach since the Pats haven't had a QB need in a long time. I didn't work out for the Jets, however I find it hard to fault their approach. They loved Sanchez and done what they needed to get him. Likewise, the Redskins last year gave up a lot for RG3, however if he pans out then no one will care what they gave up.

You compare these two teams with the approach that Cleveland took. They dicked about for years passing on potential QBs and took "safer" players. They ended up taking Colt McCoy in the 3rd with, IMO, the thought process of if he doesn't work out then we only wasted a 3rd rounder. They took Joe Thomas over Brady Quinn and then later took Quinn. If they weren't confident enough in taking Quinn 3rd overall then I really don't see why you would move up and take him later in the first. Quinn clearly wasn't the answer. Then they passed on Sanchez and traded down for extra picks. Once again Sanchez hasn't been successful either, however at the time they had a big need for a QB and passed. Then last year they passed on Locker, Gabbert and Ponder yet again for more picks. Where are they picking again this year??? Likely top 5. They waited and waited for the "right guy" to fall. They took Weeden this year but once again it was a late first pick. If they were confident in Weeden then I believe they would have taken him earlier.

All in all, in hindsight the guys Cleveland passed on in general haven't been successes with their recent teams, however taking a plethora of other guys hasn't helped Cleveland either. This is a QB league. Cleveland has passed on numerous QBs because they weren't "perfect" and it has gotten them nowhere. Mike Holmgren is on his way out because he was reluctant to take a risk. Mike Tannenbaum and Rex Ryan are relatively safe because they took a chance.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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I'm sure they will be.

Bottom line, is there a guy in this draft with the potential to be a "franchise" QB? Yes, I believe that there is. I think Geno and Tyler Wilson have that potential.

The bigger question is, will either of them realize that potential in KC? With the current coaching staff and front office decision makers? I find that hard to fathom that they'll get anything done in the NFL.

And I'm generally the guy who doesn't want to draft a position just to draft one, but this is the exception. I don't care if we draft the biggest QB bust in the history of the NFL. I don't care if we draft someone and they never play a down for us. I don't care. I'm tired of not trying. When you realize you're envious of the Raiders, Jags, and Browns, because at least they've tried to address their QB situation, you know you're in trouble.

Regardless of how this team has looked, there is talent on offense. A young QB could come into much worse situations than what he'll have here in KC. We just need to get rid of Daboll and Zorn and find coaches who can develop the QB and give the offense some life.

Ugh now I'm depressed. I hate football.
One thing I'm confident in is that the current decision makers and coaching staff will no longer be in KC if the team finishes in position to draft a Wilson or a Geno, which by all appearances, they will be.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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One thing I'm confident in is that the current decision makers and coaching staff will no longer be in KC if the team finishes in position to draft a Wilson or a Geno, which by all appearances, they will be.
This is a gutless team right now. They don't play with heart or passion. It's sickening to watch.

They will finish top 3 and I'll be shocked if they're not picking 1st overall.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:18 PM    (permalink
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That's part of the problem. Has there been improvement? Incrementally yes. And they came in areas where he was really, REALLY bad.

OTOH, he's gone from "worst QB I've ever seen" to "worst in the NFL." You'll see a nice drive or a nice quarter here and there from him, but then you look up and it's 24-3 by halftime and he's completed less than 50% of his passes. It's really hard to determine where the line is drawn between him sucking and everyone else sucking. It's just a big pile of suck, and they all drag each other down.
That's the thing. He was without question, the worst qb I ever seen last year. He was that bad. But then this year, he went from worst qb ever to just a really terrible qb. As bad as that is, it is considerable improvement.

So it makes you wonder how much he can grow next year.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:22 PM    (permalink
AntoinCD
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This is a gutless team right now. They don't play with heart or passion. It's sickening to watch.

They will finish top 3 and I'll be shocked if they're not picking 1st overall.
That's the thing with the Chiefs this year. They don't have a QB and play with a general feeling of apathy. However when you look at the roster they aren't really deficient at any particular spot that would justify passing on a QB.

Sure another CB would be nice and a stud defensive lineman beside Poe would be good, but really I don't see many gaping holes.

This Chiefs team looks like ateam that should be picking in the 20s in each round where you are looking for upgrades over starters and guys who play meaningful snaps. Most teams at that point don't have glaring needs but need a few more pieces. There really is no excuse with that roster to be picking 1st overall except poor discipline (coaching problem) and poor QB play
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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This is a gutless team right now. They don't play with heart or passion. It's sickening to watch.

They will finish top 3 and I'll be shocked if they're not picking 1st overall.
Does Jacksonville or KC hold the tie breaker?
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:30 PM    (permalink
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That's the thing with the Chiefs this year. They don't have a QB and play with a general feeling of apathy. However when you look at the roster they aren't really deficient at any particular spot that would justify passing on a QB.

Sure another CB would be nice and a stud defensive lineman beside Poe would be good, but really I don't see many gaping holes.

This Chiefs team looks like ateam that should be picking in the 20s in each round where you are looking for upgrades over starters and guys who play meaningful snaps. Most teams at that point don't have glaring needs but need a few more pieces. There really is no excuse with that roster to be picking 1st overall except poor discipline (coaching problem) and poor QB play
This team has holes, but I've never seen a team with a more glaring hole than the Chiefs have at QB. None of the QBs on the Chiefs roster deserve to be taking home an NFL salary. None of them. I honestly don't want a single one of those guys back next year.

But you're right. The problems with this team ARE coaching (which has just been god awful. You have to wonder if there are even coaches in the meetings anymore) and QB play. If both of those are fixed I think the Chiefs can be a solid team. I really do.

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Does Jacksonville or KC hold the tie breaker?
I know that the Chiefs have an easier schedule, so if both finish 1-15 the Chiefs would have the first pick.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:47 PM    (permalink
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meh. i always go back to david carr/joey harrington now. if there's no flash, especially by the second year, i'm done. it doesn't need to be lighting the world on fire dominance. but something to show me that the guy can really play. while i'd certainly admit i haven't seen all of gabbert's games, i've never seen that spark. i never saw it in brady quinn (in fact, he was the anti-flash-of-anything-good-ever). i never saw it in clausen.

but you can only give the guy so many "well maybe next year...." chances. david carr was never going to be a solid starting qb in the nfl after his second year. nothing could've saved him. harrington was never going to be a solid nfl starter after his second year (i only mention both because, as i remember, there were two rather distinct camps, though carr's was certainly larger). sometimes what you see at first is all you're ever going to see. i don't expect gabbert to ever be more than a decent backup on a team with a tom-brady-starter.
To be fair, I actually did see something in Joey Harrington for a while. He just had to deal with a forced system that didn't fit him, and two coaches that didn't really believe in him or want him. Not that he would have turned out great, but he could have been much better if his confidence wasn't raped.
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Old 11-09-2012, 12:48 PM    (permalink
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If I am Jacksonville I'd keep the Gabbert and Henne. I know you guys will all bash the **** out of me for saying that...lol.

The talent around them is not good. The offensive line has had issues - I thought they were really smart when they picked Monroe and Britton in the draft a few years ago but Britton has been chronically injured. Monroe is decent. I don't hear much from Marcedes Lewis either - a young QBs best friend is the TE. MJD is a stud but he is injured right now. The playcalling is suspect at best from what I saw last night. Physically I think Gabbert has it all - he has an impressive arm and the prototypical size and speed.

Honestly I would probably take the DT from Utah or Jarvis Jones in this draft or trade down and pick up Barret Jones who is criminally underrated and stockpile draft picks to try and fill as many needs as possible.

I do not think Wilson or Smith are going to make an immediate impact and are an improvement over Gabbert. Gabbert will have had 2 seasons under his belt and that experience matters. If Luck was available I would say yes go ahead and draft Luck. But the QBs in this draft have just as many if not more question marks than Gabbert IMO. I think Geno Smith absolutely screams bust - going from having two potential 1st round draft picks/Percy Harvin like players at WVU to Jacksonville would be a disaster for a guy who relies so much on YAC for his stats.

I know Mr. Moustache man in Jacksonville probably wants to make a splash so he will see Geno Smith and make the skin deep mistake of comparing him to Newton and Griffin and think Geno Smith will have the same impact. So if you are reading this Mr. Khan or anyone else who wants to compare Smith to Griffin and Newton for the obvious reason - guess what he isn't the same type of player!!!
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Old 11-09-2012, 01:09 PM    (permalink
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the broncos will drop a game to you, just to ruin your day.
The only thing that will be dropped in a Broncos / Chiefs game is the football, multiple times by KC.
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Old 11-09-2012, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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you'd like that, wouldn't you. no, we can go a season without splitting games with KC. it's happened, like, twice in the last 25 years.
It will happen this year sir! Oh yes it will.
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Old 11-09-2012, 01:40 PM    (permalink
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If I am Jacksonville I'd keep the Gabbert and Henne. I know you guys will all bash the **** out of me for saying that...lol.

The talent around them is not good. The offensive line has had issues - I thought they were really smart when they picked Monroe and Britton in the draft a few years ago but Britton has been chronically injured. Monroe is decent. I don't hear much from Marcedes Lewis either - a young QBs best friend is the TE. MJD is a stud but he is injured right now. The playcalling is suspect at best from what I saw last night. Physically I think Gabbert has it all - he has an impressive arm and the prototypical size and speed.

Honestly I would probably take the DT from Utah or Jarvis Jones in this draft or trade down and pick up Barret Jones who is criminally underrated and stockpile draft picks to try and fill as many needs as possible.

I do not think Wilson or Smith are going to make an immediate impact and are an improvement over Gabbert. Gabbert will have had 2 seasons under his belt and that experience matters. If Luck was available I would say yes go ahead and draft Luck. But the QBs in this draft have just as many if not more question marks than Gabbert IMO. I think Geno Smith absolutely screams bust - going from having two potential 1st round draft picks/Percy Harvin like players at WVU to Jacksonville would be a disaster for a guy who relies so much on YAC for his stats.

I know Mr. Moustache man in Jacksonville probably wants to make a splash so he will see Geno Smith and make the skin deep mistake of comparing him to Newton and Griffin and think Geno Smith will have the same impact. So if you are reading this Mr. Khan or anyone else who wants to compare Smith to Griffin and Newton for the obvious reason - guess what he isn't the same type of player!!!
You are completely wrong on Monroe. He is much more than decent. He has been playing at a Pro Bowl level for a while now. I'm not high really on any of these guys (Barkley is my top guy) and Gabbert has shown improvement. However, it's been from worst QB we've seen to terrible. Maybe next year he'll improve from terrible to below average. Then year four he'll be mediocre. After four years, there probably isn't going to be a lot of improvement. So Gabbert, at best, will be a mediocre QB. You don't pass on a potential franchise QB to stick with a guy who could be mediocre.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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