San Francisco 49ers Discussion

[Ness]

Funny comment from the Saints board.

They're not the better team. I will never admit that. They may have more talent on defense, but we have more talent on offense and special teams. We just don't match up well against them, and sloppy play-calling didn't help. They just played better today, that's all.

I responded accordingly of course.

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by ViperVisor

Air Yards Per Attempt (Air YPA) - The average air yards (AY) gained per pass attempt. Note that this does not include any sack yards.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/08/glossary.html

Smith right in the middle of
Peyton
Brees
Smith
Griffin
Cutler

Brady and Rodgers below them.

The stats show this year we have picked our spots stretching the field vs. not doing it hardly ever.
You will notice that the higher up the list you are just as likely to up the INTs as production.

NFL IS NOT VIDEO GAME.
VIDEO GAME IS NOT NFL.

Actually those numbers are wrong, I saw them on another board and already checked because they didn't seem to match the bi-weekly air yardage update that I do. I decided to check the ESPN play-by-play for the last two weeks after seeing it for just the 49ers game. The 49ers have 226 YAC (95 against the Bears, 131 against the Saints) in the past two games alone, so for Kaepernick to only have the 130 yards of YAC they say he has is impossible. I didn't bother doing the other teams but if the 49ers are wrong I assume there are at least a some other mistakes.

[49erNation85]

I'm not saying going deep all the time is great.But completing deep passes will help more using CK.IMO JH never really went deep with Smith for some reason.Who knows why but never really deep patterns with Smith.Yes YAC area great but the routes speak for them selves.

[Ness]

Originally Posted by 49erNation85

I'm not saying going deep all the time is great.But completing deep passes will help more using CK.IMO JH never really went deep with Smith for some reason.Who knows why but never really deep patterns with Smith.Yes YAC area great but the routes speak for them selves.

Harbaugh did have deep patterns with Smith. Alex just never saw them and/or didn't pull the trigger. On a lot of the passing plays there is usually one deep receiver down the field at least. Harbaugh said this himself.

[abaddon41_80]

I think Alex's downfield woes are exaggerated. If he really didn't throw down the field that much then he wouldn't have been top three in the league in YPA despite the 49ers being middle-of-the-pack in YAC and towards the top of the league in drop percentage.

My honest assessment, and the numbers seem to support this, is that Alex Smith works the short intermediate routes and usually completes them while Kaepernick goes deep more often but doesn't complete his short and intermediate stuff as much as Smith. This is basically a summation of the argument here, consistency vs. the threat of big plays. Personally, with this defense and running game, I think consistency gives us a better chance to win the Super Bowl this year

[49erNation85]

I guess I just don't why Smith was holding back so much is all. Let's all just hope CK does very well the rest of the season and into the play offs.And brings this offense more alive then it has been before.

[Brent]

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

I think Alex's downfield woes are exaggerated. If he really didn't throw down the field that much then he wouldn't have been top three in the league in YPA despite the 49ers being middle-of-the-pack in YAC and towards the top of the league in drop percentage.

Could it be that plays to throw down field weren't called because he wasn't accurate enough down field or didn't have the ideal arm for those throws?

[Justone2]

I think its more that with Kaepernick the deep routes get more time to develop and he is more likely to pull the trigger. I don't believe Harbaugh has a whole different playbook with Kaep than he has with Smith but it just looks different with having another player doing it. Where Smith will check it down when he senses pressure Kaepernick is more likely to try and avoid it and then make a play.

[abaddon41_80]

Originally Posted by Brent

Could it be that plays to throw down field weren't called because he wasn't accurate enough down field or didn't have the ideal arm for those throws?

It is possible but I don't think Alex has ever really had a problem with downfield accuracy. I think justone's explanation makes more sense. Alex would rather throw an eight-yard curl when the pressure is closing in than wait for the 20-yard eight to develop.

[phlysac]

One QB is conservative and one is a quasi-gunslinger. They aren't directly comparable.

I never want Kaepernick to fail but he'll have a terrible game eventually. And I shudder to think for that day.

[king2am]

Originally Posted by phlysac

One QB is conservative and one is a quasi-gunslinger. They aren't directly comparable.

I never want Kaepernick to fail but he'll have a terrible game eventually. And I shudder to think for that day.

The dropped snap - struggling to pick it up - standing up and throwing it to the sideline at the awaiting corner x5.

That's what "that" day will look like.

As far as the two quarterbacks - One of them, after years of being beat down in every sense found a way to be efficient. Thrived as another piston in the great machine that is the Harbaugh/Roman offense.

The other has not had the negative NFL experiences and therefore has the freedom to be the player he's been his whole life - he doesn't know anything else.

[Ness]

Originally Posted by phlysac

One QB is conservative and one is a quasi-gunslinger. They aren't directly comparable.

I never want Kaepernick to fail but he'll have a terrible game eventually. And I shudder to think for that day.

Matt Maiocco brought up an interesting point, which was if the 49ers don't make the Super Bowl it will be a huge disappointment. And if Kaepernick has a bad game in the postseason, you know there will be a side of fans/the media will question how would Alex Smith have fared in the same circumstance.

[king2am]

Originally Posted by Ness

Matt Maiocco brought up an interesting point, which was if the 49ers don't make the Super Bowl it will be a huge disappointment. And if Kaepernick has a bad game in the postseason, you know there will be a side of fans/the media will question how would Alex Smith have fared in the same circumstance.

For sure.

At this point though, if Alex were to struggle in a postseason game there would be an equal amount of people wondering how Colin Kaepernick would have fared.

Nature of the beast.

[ViperVisor]

Originally Posted by king2am

The other has not had the negative NFL experiences and therefore has the freedom to be the player he's been his whole life - he doesn't know anything else.

This. The real test is responding to adversity even if it wasn't directly your own mistake.

The O-Line the past 2 games has been great. I don't know where some people are seeing all the pressure NO was getting that was avoided by evasive action saving 5 sacks.

Looked to me like the basic 3 seconds of time was there and then he would wait even longer and start moving out of the pocket.

All the years like this has beaten the 3 second limit clock into Smith.
http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/01/ol...ker-struggles/
A lot of these sacks aren't even at 3 seconds.

2011 preseason was more of the same and 2 months of regular season was the adjustment period and Chilo still playing.
And the 9 sack debacle in Baltimore.

Colin is stepping into the NFL with a legit O-Line. Makes a huge difference.
Mobility and a canon is not where the difference is made in racking up passing stats. It is understanding, timing, and accuracy.
That is why Manning, Brady, Brees all have averaged 4000+ yards a year. And how Kyle Boller had 48 career TDs that was topped in 1 season by 2 of those guys.

[Ness]

To switch gears, I hope we don't lose Greg Roman to a head coaching position, but I have a feeling it's going to be an almost certainty. We'd be really lucky if we get him for another year. I don't get the feeling that Vic Fanagio would get a head coaching offer for a while though.

[Brent]

Originally Posted by Ness

To switch gears, I hope we don't lose Greg Roman to a head coaching position, but I have a feeling it's going to be an almost certainty. We'd be really lucky if we get him for another year. I don't get the feeling that Vic Fanagio would get a head coaching offer for a while though.

I thought Fangio said he had no interest in a HC position.

[VAfy-ya]

Originally Posted by Ness

To switch gears, I hope we don't lose Greg Roman to a head coaching position, but I have a feeling it's going to be an almost certainty. We'd be really lucky if we get him for another year. I don't get the feeling that Vic Fanagio would get a head coaching offer for a while though.

Roman is as good as gone. He almost got the job at Pitt last year and he's bound to get a coaching gig somewhere in college next year. Hell, with how successful we've been and all talk about our versatility offensively and the complexity of the scheme around the league, I wouldn't be surprised is he managed to land a HC job in the NFL. Doubt it but still, I wouldn't be surprised. Roman has always had aspirations and Jimbaugh said when he got here, that with success, would come transition. Walsh went through it and he understood its the nature of the game. He will always allow assistants a chance to move up the coaching ladder. That's the way it should be.

But its Jimaugh's offense. He built it. He installed. It's a mix of Bo Schembecler and Bill Walsh. A lot ppl thought he would struggle when he got to the NFL because he didn't take David Shaw with him(his OC at Stanford). No one had even heard of Roman when he named him offensive coordinator. We'll be fine. Im sure Jimbaugh already has a successor in mind. My guess is it would be Chyrst(QB coach).

[Ness]

Any chance David Shaw moves to become OC of the 49ers? I don't know his contract situation/commitment to Stanford and if he would even want to leave and try his luck in the NFL. I'm guessing he's happy being the head coach of Stanford.

[Ness]

By the way, how many people here have actually lived in the bay area before? Or been to Candlestick. Just curious.

[VAfy-ya]

Originally Posted by Ness

Any chance David Shaw moves to become OC of the 49ers? I don't know his contract situation/commitment to Stanford and if he would even want to leave and try his luck in the NFL. I'm guessing he's happy being the head coach of Stanford.

If that were the case, he would have followed Jimbaugh to the league. Shaw is a HC at a successful program, at one of the premier universities in the country. Taking a assistant gig in the NFL is viewed as a step backwards.

It's not as big of a deal as it sounds. Jimbaugh overrides play calls as he sees fit and said its sort of a playcalling by committee with him, Chryst, and Roman, and whoever else coming up with the gameplans. Same thing he did at Stanford with him, Shaw, and Roman.

Last thing you should worry about with a Jim Harbaugh-coached team is play-calling. He's been the catalyst of great, ball-control, high-efficiency offenses since he was the HC at San Diego. As long as he's the head coach, the offense will always be a strength. I see nothing in his track record to suggest otherwise.

[Menardo75]

Originally Posted by Ness

By the way, how many people here have actually lived in the bay area before? Or been to Candlestick. Just curious.

I lived there for two years and went to 5 Niner games.

[Ness]

EDIT: Wrong thread.

[Menardo75]

Fangio isn't going anywhere he has no desire to be a HC. The guys i'd worry about leaving are, Roman, Sealy, and Leavitt.

[VAfy-ya]

About the QBs....

One thing ppl have to understand is the Jimbaugh is much like Bill Walsh...cold and calculated. Yea it sucks to see Alex lose his job to injury and I'm not a fan of the timing of the switch but give CK credit for seizing the opportunity. Walsh was shewrd when it came to personnel. He had no problem kicking guys to the curb if he thought he found a upgrade. Guys who played significant roles on SB champion teams were often cast aside for younger, cheaper talent Walsh found through the draft or scouting other teams. Walsh was always evaluating and tweaking, trying to improve and and get better at every position. Jimbaugh is the same way.

CK is physically more talented than Alex in just about every imaginable way. Add to that his pocket awareness is already noticeably better than Alex. He understands how to buy time by simply stepping up in the pocket or sliding left or right. Things that I criticized Alex for not being able to do earlier in the season. And in doing these, he allows deeper routes to develop and along with his cannon arm, lets CK to complete passes into windows that Alex can't. The one thing he lacks, can't be learned on a bench....and that's experience between the hashes. You only get that by developing on the field.

The one thing Jimbaugh wants over anything is to win. He's as competitive of a coach as you'll find. There's no doubt in mind, he made this decision with the thought of giving himself and this team the best possible chance to win each and every Sunday. That much should be clear. It's not a move for next year, its a move for now. He knew excatly what he was doing the moment he stepped to the podium after the Bears game and said we would go with the hot hand, before I'm sure he even consulted with the his own staff. And it was one, I gave him hell for at the time. A move I didn't understand clearly.

He was already getting CK some snaps earlier in the year with the Wild Kap package. They were already trying to find ways to get him on the field. The plan was already in motion to get CK meaningful snaps on Sundays, just in a limited way because no one, not even Jimbaugh himself, was certain of how this raw, yet talented kid would perform as a starter. But Alex's injury forced him onto the field. And he responded. That's really all Jimbaugh needed to see. It's what he was waiting for to validate CK in his mind. But he had to be certain. So another test, on the road, in a hostile environment, with all the flash bulbs on CK, would make for a nice way to see how the kid handle pressure, against a completely different defensive scheme and philosophy. And if he passed that, it would really be no denying it. And the rest is history as they say.

[Borat]

I've been to 15 Niner games at the Stick. 12-3 alltime record. Last loss was in NFCCG :(.

I've also spent some time in the drunk prison there, but that was for one of the bazillion Giants games I witnessed there. I got TWO minor-in-possessions that same day lol. Was a new personal record.