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Old 12-09-2012, 04:40 PM    (permalink
AntoinCD
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That's classic right there....
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Stop trying to turn every thread into a Packers thread.
What is this, 2010 for you again?
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Old 12-09-2012, 04:40 PM    (permalink
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Two years ago, Stanford at Washington, strangely also Luck vs. Locker. The play right before halftime, Stanford was up 28:0, ball at Washington 39-yard line, 4th down. Luck still heaved it up into the endzone nd the ball was picked. Luck's number wasn't pretty at the point or by the end of the that game for that matter. That goes far to tell all those number-crunching Luck-bashers that he simply doesn't care about the gaudery of his own stats, unlike some other qbs who are so content with throwing it to no-man's land in face of pressure at the cost of being called grounding.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:15 PM    (permalink
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What if, Wilson, G3, and Luck all finish with similar records and make the playoffs, who you got then?
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:20 PM    (permalink
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oh. J-Mike's back. goodie.
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Old 12-09-2012, 05:27 PM    (permalink
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Believe what you want.

If Jackson is still the Seahawks quarterback they aren't 7-5. Wilson may have a better team around him, but that doesn't mean he hasn't played as well as a rookie because he's been asked to do less. He's making plays when they need to be made and that's important. Jackson couldn't do that for them last year. The Colts also play in the AFC and the AFC South.
That is more of an indictment of how awful Jackson is. The AFC South is on par with the NFC West. The texans are the best team in the AFC(or second best). The colts are also 3-1 against the NFC
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Old 12-09-2012, 07:47 PM    (permalink
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Cousins... 158.3zzz just saying.
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Old 12-10-2012, 01:59 AM    (permalink
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Russell Wilson - 20 TDs/9 INTs
Andrew Luck - 18 TDs/18 INTs
RGIII - 18 TDs/4 INTs


Luck isn't going to win OROTY with those numbers, considering he's barely completing 55% of his passes.
IMO Andrew is going to be a great NFL.
He isn't one right now.
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:11 AM    (permalink
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That is more of an indictment of how awful Jackson is. The AFC South is on par with the NFC West. The texans are the best team in the AFC(or second best). The colts are also 3-1 against the NFC
Or it's a testament to how good Wilson is as a rookie. I wouldn't agree that the AFC South is on part with the NFC West. The 49ers have 9 wins, the Seahawks have eight wins, and the Rams are 6-6-1 at this point playing in a conference where no one has been eliminated yet compared to four teams being eliminated in the AFC, two coming from the AFC South itself. You look at the Colts schedule this season it's been ridiculously easy. They did have that comeback win against the Packers, but they got killed by the Bears and Patriots. Other than those three teams they haven't really faced anybody that would be a clear cut favorite over them heading into the game. Maybe the Lions?

We'll see in the next three weeks how they fare against Houston. I'm not implying that Andrew Luck and the Colts are frauds, but I am saying that I believe Wilson is playing at just as good a level as he is right now. He's on a better team, but like I said they play in what seems to be a tougher conference this year. If Wilson was on the Colts, who knows. They would probably depend on him more, but I'm sure the Seahawks wouldn't depend on Andrew Luck as much if he was in a Seattle uniform. Even if Wilson is on a good team, he still has to make big plays when asked (which he has done) and limit big time mistakes (which he has done).

Kind of reminds me of the Montana/Elway arguments where a lot of people like to give in the nod to Elway as the better player because he didn't have a lot to work with on offense during a good amount of his career and his coaching staff wasn't exactly notable compared to Montana's situation in San Francisco.
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:12 AM    (permalink
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I find it extremely difficult to justify giving any award to the league leader in turnovers.

Andrew Luck could/will be the best player from this draft class, but no way he's having the best rookie season.
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Old 12-10-2012, 02:52 AM    (permalink
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RG3 looked awful after quarter time. Lucky for the redskins he got hurt and Cousins came in. Not sure you can give a RG3 OROTY when he isnt even one of the best two offensive rookies on his own team.
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Old 12-10-2012, 03:22 AM    (permalink
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What is 'quarter time'????
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:11 AM    (permalink
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Well, how are we framing this discussion then? Is it who should win OROY or is it who will win OROY? The two arenít interchangeable, seamless topics. If itís the latter, I donít mind the argument that RGIII will be awarded with the hardware because his numbers are more pleasing. The media tends to be more quantitative than qualitative. But, if itís the former, I wouldnít dismiss Luck on the basis of a single metric or two. If weíre talking overall bodies of work, and adding appropriate context to the debate, then Luck has a case of his own.

From a statistical perspective, his turnover numbers are a blemish. I get that. There are a lot of good-to-great quarterbacks that enter the league as ďturnover machinesĒ though. With regards to Luckís season in particular, I canít stress enough that heís second in the NFL in terms of passing attempts. As a rookie. For comparisonís sake, RGIII is 25th and Russell Wilson is 26th. Right now, the Colts are asking Luck to do it all and heís doing it. He hasnít been given a crutch to lean on. No, he hasnít been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL, but Iím not expecting him to establish himself as Manning-esque in his first season in Indianapolis either. That offense isnít multiple and its design isnít unique either. Itís a standard offense.

Going into Week 14, Luck was intercepted on 3.2% of his passing attempts. Similar quarterbacks? Cutler and Rivers at 3.5%. Brees at 3.3%. Romo and Dalton at 3.1%. Ryan at 2.8%. Luck is in their neighborhood as a rookie. Without Brandon Marshall. Without Breesí seasoning, scheme, or weapons. Without Dez, Austin, or Witten. Without A.J. Green. Without White, Jones, or Gonzalez. Now, Luck does have a resurgent Pro Bowler on the outside. After that? Four rookies and a cast-off from St. Louis. Paired with a ground game that ranks in the bottom third of the league on a holistic and per attempt basis. Thatís what heís working with. His squad isnít stocked with world-beaters.

As for overall team, I do think there are some caveats to consider with the Coltsí record. Indianapolis is a weak wild-card team in a weak AFC thatís projected to finish with a negative point differential. That said, itís still a flawed roster. A flawed roster thatís still projected to make the postseason. Itís not like itís clear that the Colts are the better team each game. That team has won a lot of close games against comparable competition. Luck has been the biggest factor in masking some of those holes and raising their compete level. A roster with a 2-14 foundation and a high rate of turnover has jelled behind a rookie quarterbackís poise and put themselves on the precipice of the postseason. Thatís unprecedented. Luckís (and, for that matter, RGIIIís) intangibles are unquantifiable.
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Old 12-10-2012, 05:36 AM    (permalink
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The OROTY is awarded on production, not caveats about why a player's numbers aren't statistically impressive.

The answer for every argument in Luck's favor can't begin and end with, 'he throws the ball more', or, 'he doesn't have great talent around him'.

No one is saying Luck isn't a talented player.
But his stats don't really scream OROTY.
For instance I still believe Trent Richardson is an amazingly talented RB, but Robert Morris and Doug Martin have outperformed him statistically.

The most impressive thing IMO Luck has done this season is WIN. But I don't know if that alone is enough to overshadow how Russell Wilson and RG3 have performed as rookies.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:03 AM    (permalink
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redskins fans are making it so hard to like RG3.

Also, every argument in Luck's favor can't be "he throws more" but every argument in RG3's favor is "LOOK HOW MANY ******* PICKS LUCK THREW"

oh.

makes sense.

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Old 12-10-2012, 10:09 AM    (permalink
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Russell Wilson - 20 TDs/9 INTs
Andrew Luck - 18 TDs/18 INTs
RGIII - 18 TDs/4 INTs


Luck isn't going to win OROTY with those numbers, considering he's barely completing 55% of his passes.
IMO Andrew is going to be a great NFL.
He isn't one right now.
Andrew Luck isnt' a great NFL QB right now? And you make that claim based off of statistics? Seriously?
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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Griffin- and Wilson- supporters who didn't catch the Colts game yesterday mostly likely still have have no clue about two, actually three significant stats surrounding Luck's year: he is ranked #1 in the entire league both in terms of being hurried and hit in dropbacks; he's also atop of the list with respective to drawing fine-able hits. What he's been able to pull off so far is nothing short of miraculous.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:29 AM    (permalink
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Only some statistics matter, and those statistics only matter when it helps my argument. In all other situations stats are for losers.
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Old 12-10-2012, 10:57 AM    (permalink
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Only some statistics matter, and those statistics only matter when it helps my argument. In all other situations stats are for losers.
YEAH BUT YOU CLEARLY HAVENT SEEN THE GUY I'M ARGUING FOR PLAY. IDIOT.

and killswitch and I just completed 10+ pages of internet arguing in 2 posts. We are efficient.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:05 AM    (permalink
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Should have been a poll.

Most of what I've read has been a rationalization for why Luck's numbers aren't better than they are.

Someone make the simple (convincing) case for why Luck should be OROTY.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:27 AM    (permalink
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I know I said I was done but just found this hilarious.

Cudders makes several well thought out posts about Luck and RG3

*asks for someone to make a convincing post about Luck.
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Old 12-10-2012, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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Should have been a poll.

Most of what I've read has been a rationalization for why Luck's numbers aren't better than they are.

Someone make the simple (convincing) case for why Luck should be OROTY.
His team is 9-4 after a 2-12 season last year. He is 7th in the league in passing yards, and first among rookies by a fairly large margin, and is second among rookie QBs in total touchdowns. He is leading an offense that is ranked 6th in the league despite having a running game that is ranked 22nd. And he currently has his team in the lead for the 5th seed in the AFC while having an absolutely porous defense and taking on more responsibilities than your typical rookie QB.

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Old 12-10-2012, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Should have been a poll.

Most of what I've read has been a rationalization for why Luck's numbers aren't better than they are.

Someone make the simple (convincing) case for why Luck should be OROTY.
Because he is the entire foundation of a playoff team that was a hapless 1-15 last year. I don't know if I can understate how hard they make it for him. There hasn't been an "easing in" process for him. It's not like Indy is running a controlled, measured pass game that takes an occasional shot play. They're asking him to carry them and overcome the other deficiencies on the roster much in the same way that Pittsburgh asked of the veteran version of Roethlisberger (not the rookie/young version).

RG3 and Russell Wilson are amazing. I love them. You will not find bigger fans of those two (and Tannehill - really, this whole rookie QB class) than me. I think it should be noted, though, that every single one of those guys has had a staff that met them halfway. All 3 of those guys are largely doing the same things schematically that they were asked to do last season. Luck isn't....and he's still being ridiculously successful. His metrics in Throwing Distance/Yards Per Pass in the Air blow everybody else away.
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Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR

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Old 12-10-2012, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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IMO people have nibbled around the edges of the debate, but there haven't been strong cases made about why one player should be OROTY.
There have been attempts to put into context why one rookie's production is less/more impressive than the other, or how player X is still productive in less than ideal circumstances.

Crossroads took a stab at it and hit what the high points are for Luck.
But you still can't make a case for him without using some stats. All NFL offensive awards are heavily stat based.

So....Luck is a winner, 9-4 and quarterbacking a team nearly a lock for the playoffs.
He's thrown for the most yards of any other rookie.


EDIT:

y.f.s., I thought Luck and Tannehill had the least transition to make from their college systems to the pros??
Wasn't that a big part of the reason Luck was considered the most 'pro ready QB' in decades??
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
IMO people have nibbled around the edges of the debate, but there haven't been strong cases made about why one player should be OROTY.
There have been attempts to put into context why one rookie's production is less/more impressive than the other, or how player X is still productive in less than ideal circumstances.

Crossroads took a stab at it and hit what the high points are for Luck.
But you still can't make a case for him without using some stats. All NFL offensive awards are heavily stat based.

So....Luck is a winner, 9-4 and quarterbacking a team nearly a lock for the playoffs.
He's thrown for the most yards of any other rookie.


EDIT:

y.f.s., I thought Luck and Tannehill had the least transition to make from their college systems to the pros??
Wasn't that a big part of the reason Luck was considered the most 'pro ready QB' in decades??
Luck, in particular, played in what can be described as a more "conventional" offense than RG3 at Stanford, however while RG3 is still running zone read option and pistol stuff, Luck's offense this year (while also considered "conventional" in NFL terms) is completely different to the Stanford offense he played in under Harbaugh and Shaw. The Colts offense is basically the Steelers offense from a few years back. They use a lot of motion, deep drops, trips formations, shotgun passing etc. Stanford's offense was completely based off of power run behind that unbelievable offensive line. Luck was able to utilize play action to go deep and if not take the underneath stuff. This year the Colts run a lot of vertical routes out of all formations. The ridiculous thing is Andrew Luck was asked to do less at Stanford throughout his college career than he is being asked to do as a rookie in the NFL. That is the most impressive thing to me.
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Old 12-10-2012, 12:04 PM    (permalink
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In terms of terminology or how the offense is organized? Yes. But in terms of the structure of the offense and how it's executed? He's probably got the biggest difference of any of the four QBs. Luck being "pro ready" had very little to do with the offense he played in, and every bit to do with how ridiculously good he was at moving around in a compressed pocket. I know I have old posts on here from in-between his freshman and sophomore seasons saying that he better at moving inside the pocket than any QB I had ever seen in college.

Again, the Stanford offense is/was "pro style" but what does that even mean? It was a ball-control offense, the pass game was catered between the numbers, and they took occasional, measured shot plays. Andrew Luck was amazing in college and he did some advanced stuff pre and post snap, but that doesn't change the fact that he wasn't the foundation of their offense. The run game was, and it will continue to be.

FWIW, Tannehill went 8th overall because he's basically a prodigy for how well he moved in the pocket and threw outside the numbers with such limited starts. And that's what he's had success doing in Miami.
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Tannehill was a better QB (than Gabbert) when he was still playing WR
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