Join Date: Oct 2011
Week 15 Mock
Updated my spreadsheet with week 14's results and made some tweaks to the projected weeks 15-17 results. I feel more confident in the draft order than I do the picks, I simply have teams taking BPA unless they have a combination of big money contracts or previous 2 year high draft picks at the position (i.e. not having the Jets taking a WR with Holmes getting big money, Hill just had a 2nd round used on him last year, and Kerley from 2011 draft doing well). I.e. not having teams take their biggest need simply because its the biggest need, which almost never happens except for QB, which I will have teams taking way above their actual value.
1. Oakland Raiders - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.488)
Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
I have the Raiders losing the battle for the #1 pick in week 15 vs the Chiefs, though I think it will be close. These forums are the only place I have seen Tyler Wilson even close to being the #1 QB in this draft class, so I'm going with the majority and saying Geno first.
2. Kansas City Chiefs - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.512)
Matt Barkley - QB - USC
Again, these forums are the only place where Tyler Wilson being taken 1st or even 2nd is considered an option. KC goes with the safe bet in Barkley, and let's be serious if he declared last year he would've been taken before Tannehill so I don't understand the hate on him this year. USC going 7-5 isn't his fault it's the fact that they have no depth behind their starters and when they got hit by injuries their team stunk on account of the scholarship penalties. Barkley is still the 2nd best QB prospect in this class.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Projected record (3-13) Projected SOS (0.527)
Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
With so many holes on this team it's hard to argue that they should simply take the BPA. I think the 3 blue chip prospects in this class are Lotuleilei, Joeckel, and Milliner, so as long as they take one of those 3 it's a good pick IMO. Milliner would fill the biggest need of the 3 though.
4. Tennessee Titans - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.461)
Star Lotuleilei - DT - Utah
Blue-chip prospect. Arguably biggest need.
5. Philadelphia Eagles - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.508)
Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Not really sure what the Eagles do in the first next year, they have either youth or big contracts at pretty much every position, so it will depend on who they cut. I think Demeco Ryans could be cut to make room for Te'o, or one of their big money DTs like Patterson for Hankins or Richardson. Either way, I think this pick gets traded back to a LT needy team for Joeckel, but I'm not projecting trades in this mock.
6. Arizona Cardinals - Projected record (4-12) Projected SOS (0.551)
Tyler Wilson - QB - Arkansas
Already explained why I have Wilson as the 3rd QB off the board, going with the consensus (and not the draftcountdown chiefs fan consensus).
7. Detroit Lions - Projected record (5-11) Projected SOS (0.547)
Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M
Sticking to BPA drafting they take the best o-lineman in the draft, and while they just took Reiff last year, he's likely better suited to play RT. Backus is likely done after this season, can't imagine he has much left in the tank, and even if he does that won't prevent them from taking this stud.
8. Buffalo Bills - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.492)
Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
I'm aware they just gave a enormous contract to Mario Williams and gave big money to Mark Anderson, but their pass rush is still bad and Anderson hasn't been healthy at all and is due a 1.5mil roster bonus in the off-season and can easily be let go of. Considering their other needs, the value at those positions simply isn't there. I think they take Landry Jones on day 2 considering his experience in pistol formations at OU, I think he'd be the best fit for Gailey's offense.
9. Cleveland Browns - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.500)
Damontre Moore - DE - Texas A&M
BPA and fills a big need. Don't feel I need to elaborate on this one.
10. Carolina Panthers - Projected record (6-10) Projected SOS (0.523)
Johnathan Hankins - DT - Ohio State
Not sold that Mankins will be the 2nd DT off the board, I think Richardson will make a push for it. Either way, Mankins would likely fill the bigger need of a run-stuffing DT whereas Richardson is a leaner pass-rushing DT.
11. St. Louis Rams - Projected record (6-9-1) Projected SOS (0.527)
Taylor Lewan - OT - Michigan
Rams' pass-protection woes and Saffold's failure at LT have been well-documented. No need to go into details here. Matthews could make a push for 2nd OT off the board though.
12. San Diego Chargers - Projected record (7-9) Projected SOS (0.469)
Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
The Chargers' o-line is a mess, but the tackle spots should be solid in 2013 as those positions have just been decimated because of injuries. The interior line however, could use some help.
13. Miami Dolphins - Projected record (7-9) Projected SOS (0.492)
Keenan Allen - WR - California
Tried to address the WR position last year with some late-round fliers but none of them worked out as far as I know, and the only one still on the roster is Rishard Matthews I think.
14. Cincinnati Bengals - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.461)
Jarvis Jones - OLB/DE - Georgia
Size and health concerns push Jones out of the top 10 but could still be an absolute stud at the next level.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.486)
Johnthan Banks - CB - Mississippi State
One team I wouldn't blame if they reached a bit in the 1st round would be Tampa and corner. It's absurd that they have the best run d but worst pass d, they need lots of help in that secondary.
16. St. Louis Rams (via Washington) - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.498)
Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
Not sure how Rokevious Watkins from South Carolina is doing but I'm going to go ahead and assume he isn't a future pro-bowler.
17. New York Jets - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.504)
Sam Montgomery - OLB - LSU
Barkveious Mingo has been less than stellar in his first year as a starter, and has proved to be more of a situational pass-rusher in my mind. Wouldn't be surprised if he slips to 2nd round, or maybe even doesn't declare. Montgomery is the pass rusher on LSU I want.
18. Minnesota Vikings - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.520)
Justin Hunter - WR - Tennessee
Regardless of what's going on with Harvin, the Vikings desperately need a legitimate outside threat at WR. Been big on Hunter for a while and as long as his knees check out I anticipate a huge rise for him in the evaluation process.
19. New Orleans Saints - Projected record (8-8) Projected SOS (0.521)
Jake Matthews - OT - Texas A&M
Bushrod is in his contract year and it would surprise me if he's hung on to, he's been the weak link in that OL for a while.
20. New York Giants - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.525)
Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
I imagine that Eli Manning would be a much better QB if he had more than 1 second to throw the ball. LT has been a disaster for the Giants, but not sure if they'll change their typical draft priorities for one, although many people didn't expect them taking a RB first round last year either.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.461)
John Jenkins - NT - Georgia
Can't imagine that Hampton will be back next year as his contract is up and the Steelers tried to draft his replacement with Ta'amu last year and that failed.
22. Dallas Cowboys - Projected record (9-7) Projected SOS (0.512)
Eric Reid - S - LSU
Just speculating here considering they traded up to get his teammate Claiborne last year, maybe Jerry Jones loves Reid too. Safety is a big need and 22 wouldn't be a reach for him.
23. Indianapolis Colts - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.465)
Jesse Williams - NT - Alabama
They drafted his teammate Chapman last year who hasn't been healthy, and while he could still play on their front 3, maybe not necessarily at nose, that entire line needs work.
24. Chicago Bears - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.500)
Barrett Jones - OG - Alabama
Lance Louis is in his contract year and likely won't be back. The Bears o-line has been its achilles heel for a while now, I anticipate at least 1 early pick used on o-line by the Bears next year.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Projected record (10-6) Projected SOS (0.496)
Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
Hard to find a weak spot on this team, so I looked at who's contracts are up at the end of the year and Jason Jones would make sense as the person most likely to be replaced with the draft. Seahawks drafted a super-talented defender with character concerns last year, so I could see this happening. Could also see Richardson going much higher as well.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Projected record (11-5) Projected SOS (0.500)
C.J. Mosley - LB - Alabama
If Ray doesn't hang em up after this season it'd be a mistake, he's been horrendous in coverage, slow, and is just an injury waiting to happen. Even if he doesn't, having Mosley learn from Ray for a year wouldn't be bad, and he could compete with McClain to start opposite Ray, and likely play over Ray in passing situations.
27. San Francisco 49ers - Projected record (11-4-1) Projected SOS (0.492)
Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
Another team it's hard to find holes on, but one thing they could use is more weapons. Austin could immediately contribute on special teams, and come in on certain packages.
28. New England Patriots - Projected record (12-4) Projected SOS (0.504)
Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
Trading for Talib wasn't the long-term solution as his contract expires at the end of the year. The secondary still needs help.
29. Atlanta Falcons - Projected record (13-3) Projected SOS (0.426)
Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
Going to keep being lazy and mocking Eifert to the Falcons, replacing a retiring Gonzo, etc etc you know the drill.
30. Houston Texans - Projected record (14-2) Projected SOS (0.492)
DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
Keyshawn Martin has shown some promise, but aside from that their WR depth behind Andre Johnson is miserable.
31. Green Bay Packers - Projected record (12-4) Projected SOS (0.492)
Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
A slight reach, it's possible the Packers move up or down in the draft a bit, but it's obvious the o-line needs some help. Newhouse and Sherrod aren't good at LT.
32. Denver Broncos - Projected record (13-3) Projected SOS (0.473)
Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
Not sure if they intend to keep Derek Wolfe as a rotational DE or move him to DT or not, but they currently don't have much at DT signed for next year.
As always, comments always appreciated. Please try to keep them productive such as what players would be a good scheme fit for a certain team, or if they can't cut a player I anticipate being cut because of some contract structure I'm unaware of, etc. Comments like 'Tyler Wilson is better than Barkley' get us no where, thanks =D
Last edited by Robcards : 12-11-2012 at 10:04 AM.