Originally Posted by Cudders
Well, how are we framing this discussion then? Is it who should win OROY or is it who will win OROY? The two arenít interchangeable, seamless topics. If itís the latter, I donít mind the argument that RGIII will be awarded with the hardware because his numbers are more pleasing. The media tends to be more quantitative than qualitative. But, if itís the former, I wouldnít dismiss Luck on the basis of a single metric or two. If weíre talking overall bodies of work, and adding appropriate context to the debate, then Luck has a case of his own.
From a statistical perspective, his turnover numbers are a blemish. I get that. There are a lot of good-to-great quarterbacks that enter the league as ďturnover machinesĒ though. With regards to Luckís season in particular, I canít stress enough that heís second in the NFL in terms of passing attempts. As a rookie. For comparisonís sake, RGIII is 25th and Russell Wilson is 26th. Right now, the Colts are asking Luck to do it all and heís doing it. He hasnít been given a crutch to lean on. No, he hasnít been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL, but Iím not expecting him to establish himself as Manning-esque in his first season in Indianapolis either. That offense isnít multiple and its design isnít unique either. Itís a standard offense.
Going into Week 14, Luck was intercepted on 3.2% of his passing attempts. Similar quarterbacks? Cutler and Rivers at 3.5%. Brees at 3.3%. Romo and Dalton at 3.1%. Ryan at 2.8%. Luck is in their neighborhood as a rookie. Without Brandon Marshall. Without Breesí seasoning, scheme, or weapons. Without Dez, Austin, or Witten. Without A.J. Green. Without White, Jones, or Gonzalez. Now, Luck does have a resurgent Pro Bowler on the outside. After that? Four rookies and a cast-off from St. Louis. Paired with a ground game that ranks in the bottom third of the league on a holistic and per attempt basis. Thatís what heís working with. His squad isnít stocked with world-beaters.
As for overall team, I do think there are some caveats to consider with the Coltsí record. Indianapolis is a weak wild-card team in a weak AFC thatís projected to finish with a negative point differential. That said, itís still a flawed roster. A flawed roster thatís still projected to make the postseason. Itís not like itís clear that the Colts are the better team each game. That team has won a lot of close games against comparable competition. Luck has been the biggest factor in masking some of those holes and raising their compete level. A roster with a 2-14 foundation and a high rate of turnover has jelled behind a rookie quarterbackís poise and put themselves on the precipice of the postseason. Thatís unprecedented. Luckís (and, for that matter, RGIIIís) intangibles are unquantifiable.