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View Poll Results: Who gets your vote for Rookie of the Year right now?
Robert Griffin 55 37.93%
Andrew Luck 56 38.62%
Russell Wilson 34 23.45%
Voters: 145. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-24-2012, 05:58 PM    (permalink
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NFL QB Rating: Griffin - 104.1 (1st), Wilson 98.0 (7th), Luck 75.6 (25th)

% of First Down Passes - Griffin 38.7%, 145/375 (5th), Wilson 37.7%, 141/371 (7th), Luck 33.2% 199/599 (21st)

% of Passes Intercepted - Griffin 1.3%, 5/375 (2nd), Wilson 2.7%, 10/371 (20th), Luck 3.3% 18/599 (Outside the top 20)

QBR in 2 WRs Sets - Griffin 137.8 (1st), Wilson 105.1 (10th), Luck 98.6 (10th)

QBR in 3 WRS Sets - Wilson 93.2 (8th), Griffin 92.1 (8th), Luck 78.3 (outside top 20)

QBR in 4 WRs Sets - Griffin 91.0 (9th), Wilson 89.6 (11th), Luck 64.1 (31st)
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:19 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
The SKins beating the Cowboys for a 2nd time this season at home in FedEx is the equivalent of the Knicks winning the NBA championship??
And who would've thought that Ryan Lochte could only get two golds in London?!

Honestly, I think the odds of Knicks winning it all this year is at least no less than the Skins winning this weekend - provided Amare doesn't play like how Amare used to play, or otherwise not play at all.

Jason Garrette knows this can potentially be the last straw.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by xjxdarren View Post
And who would've thought that Ryan Lochte could only get two golds in London?!

Honestly, I think the odds of Knicks winning it all this year is at least no less than the Skins winning this weekend - provided Amare doesn't play like how Amare used to play, or otherwise not play at all.

Jason Garrette knows this can potentially be the last straw.
It has nothing to do with whether or not the Knicks are capable or good enough to win an NBA title. It's comparing their chances to the SKins winning one game that's the problem.
The Knicks aren't 50/50 to win a title this year.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by tmljeh19 View Post
You cant base an individual award on a teams W/L record. Individual stats play a majority of the role in determination. If a team wins 21-14 and the defense had a pick 6 and special teams returned a kick for a TD how can you base that QBs play of the W? He wasn't responsible for that win.
Lol your imaginary scenario does no damage to Luck but is utterly counterproductive to making a case for Wilson.

Would the Colts get the win this past game without his 7th game-winning drive? You tell me.

However, if you do the math (provided that you can do math), you'll notice that none of Wilson's 4 TD passes were required to get the W, as Seahawks would still have out scored niners 14-13 by sheer virtue of their special team and defense.

Please run through your contrived cases in the head before they do you disservice at making a point.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by tmljeh19 View Post
NFL QB Rating: Griffin - 104.1 (1st), Wilson 98.0 (7th), Luck 75.6 (25th)

% of First Down Passes - Griffin 38.7%, 145/375 (5th), Wilson 37.7%, 141/371 (7th), Luck 33.2% 199/599 (21st)

% of Passes Intercepted - Griffin 1.3%, 5/375 (2nd), Wilson 2.7%, 10/371 (20th), Luck 3.3% 18/599 (Outside the top 20)

QBR in 2 WRs Sets - Griffin 137.8 (1st), Wilson 105.1 (10th), Luck 98.6 (10th)

QBR in 3 WRS Sets - Wilson 93.2 (8th), Griffin 92.1 (8th), Luck 78.3 (outside top 20)

QBR in 4 WRs Sets - Griffin 91.0 (9th), Wilson 89.6 (11th), Luck 64.1 (31st)
I wish OROTY voters crunched numbers like this, be we all know they don't.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:30 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
It has nothing to do with whether or not the Knicks are capable or good enough to win an NBA title. It's comparing their chances to the SKins winning one game that's the problem.
The Knicks aren't 50/50 to win a title this year.
Yeah determining the outcome of a football game is EXACTLY like flipping a coin!

You really need to take a introductory statistics class before discussing probabilities.

Last edited by xjxdarren : 12-24-2012 at 06:33 PM.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by xjxdarren View Post
Yeah determining the outcome of a football game is EXACTLY like flipping a coin!

You really need to take a introductory statistics class before discussing probabilities.

There's only two teams playing in the Skins/Cowboys game.

How many teams make the NBA playoffs??

You talk so much **** and more than half the time don't have a point to make.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:45 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
There's only two teams playing in the Skins/Cowboys game.

How many teams make the NBA playoffs??

You talk so much **** and more than half the time don't have a point to make.
Just because there are only two teams the odds must be 50/50?! Next time I shall challenge Michael Jordan to a one-on-one thanks to your advice.

You should just have your GED revoked man. Beyond pathetic.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:55 PM    (permalink
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Just because there are only two teams the odds must be 50/50?! Next time I shall challenge Michael Jordan to a one-on-one thanks to your advice.

You should just have your GED revoked man. Beyond pathetic.

I'm not talking about probability distribution you dumb ****. I'm talking about the chances to win ONE GAME between two similar opponents, which is in no way similar to the odds of winning a ******* NBA postseason tournament.

Again, still talking all that **** and your breath smells like ass.
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Old 12-24-2012, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
I'm not talking about probability distribution you dumb ****. I'm talking about the chances to win ONE GAME between two similar opponents, which is in no way similar to the odds of winning a ******* NBA postseason tournament.

Again, still talking all that **** and your breath smells like ass.
Lol some lady is getting mad and can't help make a scene. Don't remember who brought up, quote, "50/50", already? Amnesia at such young age is never a good sign; there are so many more classes out there that will help you!
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:01 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by xjxdarren View Post
Lol your imaginary scenario does no damage to Luck but is utterly counterproductive to making a case for Wilson.

Would the Colts get the win this past game without his 7th game-winning drive? You tell me.

However, if you do the math (provided that you can do math), you'll notice that none of Wilson's 4 TD passes were required to get the W, as Seahawks would still have out scored niners 14-13 by sheer virtue of their special team and defense.

Please run through your contrived cases in the head before they do you disservice at making a point.
This is the second time you chose to read something I said and contrived it to something pulled 10 feet up your ass.

I said IF a team wins 21-14 and their defense and special teams scores a TD each you can not say that the QB play was a direct result to the win. Hence you CAN NOT base OROY on a teams W/L record. I said absolutely NOTHING about Luck's KC game. But hell its quite impressive struggling to beat the 2-13 Chiefs.
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:03 PM    (permalink
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I posted this in the old thread but now updated through week 16:

Drop % (% of pass att that are dropped): RGIII - 8.8, Luck - 7.7, Wilson - 5.6

Accuracy % (what completion% would look like when drops, spikes, throw aways etc aren't factored in): RGIII - 80.6, Wilson - 75.9, Luck - 67.2

YIA% (% of yards that come before the catch): Luck - 63.6, Wilson - 62.9, RGIII - 53.8

Deep Passing Acc % (completion % (including drops) of balls thrown for 20 yards or more): RGIII - 54.5, Wilson - 47.5, Luck - 42.0 [Important to note that RGIII attempts deep throws about half as much as Wilson and Luck]

Pressure % (% of dropbacks under pressure): Wilson - 38.6, Luck - 38.4, RGIII - 35.2

Completion % Under Pressure: RGIII - 58.4, Wilson - 43.9, Luck - 40.5

Accuracy % Under Pressure: RGIII - 78.4, Wilson - 64.0, Luck - 55.6

Source: PFF
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by xooberon View Post
I posted this in the old thread but now updated through week 16:

Drop % (% of pass att that are dropped): RGIII - 8.8, Luck - 7.7, Wilson - 5.6

Accuracy % (what completion% would look like when drops, spikes, throw aways etc aren't factored in): RGIII - 80.6, Wilson - 75.9, Luck - 67.2

YIA% (% of yards that come before the catch): Luck - 63.6, Wilson - 62.9, RGIII - 53.8

Deep Passing Acc % (completion % (including drops) of balls thrown for 20 yards or more): RGIII - 54.5, Wilson - 47.5, Luck - 42.0 [Important to note that RGIII attempts deep throws about half as much as Wilson and Luck]

Pressure % (% of dropbacks under pressure): Wilson - 38.6, Luck - 38.4, RGIII - 35.2

Completion % Under Pressure: RGIII - 58.4, Wilson - 43.9, Luck - 40.5

Accuracy % Under Pressure: RGIII - 78.4, Wilson - 64.0, Luck - 55.6

Source: PFF
Some of these stats are freaking unreal. 80% completion with drops factored in. Beast!! The under pressure stats are awesome as well. But hell what does that matter. Luck has one more win thats all that matters right? RIGHT??
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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You cant base an individual award on a teams W/L record. Individual stats play a majority of the role in determination. If a team wins 21-14 and the defense had a pick 6 and special teams returned a kick for a TD how can you base that QBs play of the W? He wasn't responsible for that win.
Likewise if a QB scores 3 TD's in garbage time while doing nothing the rest of the game and he finishes the game with a 110 QB rating in a losing effort, did he have a good game? The exact same rationale applies.
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Some of these stats are freaking unreal. 80% completion with drops factored in. Beast!! The under pressure stats are awesome as well. But hell what does that matter. Luck has one more win thats all that matters right? RIGHT??
College QB's routinely complete 80% of their passes. It really helps to have a scheme and a 1400 yard rusher (through 15 games) that allow you to play super safe lateral passing game. Even in that statistic posted above he's a full 10% behind the other two in YIA%. That means he's CONSISTENTLY checking down and asking his WRs to get to the marker and do the work.

RGIII is a phenomenal player but he's running a college offense suited to him playing dynamic bus driver and not taking risks. Given that RGIII is on a team with the best rushing attack in football he should have FAR higher percentage of YIA% due to the sheer success of deep play action versus run-aligned defenses.

That statistic also explains why RGIII is historically bad on third and 10+ or factoring completions yardage on 3rd down. He consistently throws the ball short of the marker and asks his teammates to get the first down. By comparison Luck is the NFL rookie leader (all-time) in this statistic. If it's completely on the 3rd down 80% of the time it's a first down. This is from playing in an NFL offense and not depending on screens, swings, and checkdowns to get the job done.

If you are going to boast about RGIII's statistics you really need to give credit to the scheme, for never asking him to take chances, and the rushing attack for never allowing a defense to key on him. If you add up every rush attempted by the Colts they only barely edge out Alfred Morris ALONE. Think about that. I'm including every single Colts player rushing versus the lead back for the Skins. The rushing attack for the Skins is the bread-winner while the passing attack is secondary. The Colts by comparison have Andrew Luck and the passing game and that's it. That's why you see things like 50 attempts from Luck while 22 attempts from RGIII. That's also why you have a 4,000 yard passing record breaking season from Luck while sitting slightly above 3,000 from RGIII.

Is RGIII efficient? Beyond measure. Is he being asked to carry his team the way Luck is? Absolutely not. Taking a 2-14 team with little talent to the 10-5 record and playoffs is more impressive than taking the TOP RANKED RUSHING 'Skins to a 9-6 potential playoff birth.

As had been said many times. Do voters look at box scores and simply weigh QBR (RGIII), or Yardage (Luck), and Efficiency (RGIII). Or do they view the award like the MVP?

If they view it as MVP they will be taking a QB breaking yardage and attempt records over one slinging the ball ~24 times a game. Point blank if the Redskins lost RGIII will they still win games? See the Cleveland Browns game. They still have their league leading rushing attack. If the Colts lose Luck? They don't have a running game and their defense just gave up 500+ yards to the Chiefs so the defense argument doesn't work either.
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:39 PM    (permalink
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College QB's routinely complete 80% of their passes. It really helps to have a scheme and a 1400 yard rusher (through 15 games) that allow you to play super safe lateral passing game. Even in that statistic posted above he's a full 10% behind the other two in YIA%. That means he's CONSISTENTLY checking down and asking his WRs to get to the marker and do the work.

RGIII is a phenomenal player but he's running a college offense suited to him playing dynamic bus driver and not taking risks. Given that RGIII is on a team with the best rushing attack in football he should have FAR higher percentage of YIA% due to the sheer success of deep play action versus run-aligned defenses.
RGIII's at about the league average for YIA%, he has a similar number to guys like Brady, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Cam so I don't think it's as big a deal as you're making it out to be. Sanchez, incidentally, leads the league in YIA% so make of that what you will.
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:45 PM    (permalink
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I wish OROTY voters crunched numbers like this, be we all know they don't.
RG3 also leads the league in completion percentage against the Blitz. He also has 4 WR's with 500 yrds recieving and Davis would have been a 5th as he and Paulsen have ~650. Further proving that he doesn't go through progressions and he locks onto one reciever.
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Old 12-24-2012, 07:51 PM    (permalink
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Further proving that he doesn't go through progressions and he locks onto one reciever.
You said stated RGIII doesn't perform a task every NFL QB has to do. Make reads moving from the plays #1 target down through the progressions.

Not sure if you fully comprehend what a Quarterback does.
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Old 12-24-2012, 08:08 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
Likewise if a QB scores 3 TD's in garbage time while doing nothing the rest of the game and he finishes the game with a 110 QB rating in a losing effort, did he have a good game? The exact same rationale applies.

Name on ******* game RG3 padded his stats in garbage time. I know you didn't specifically say him, but why say it if you weren't trying to imply something? Gawd The more people post the more convinced that this thread is littered with 3rd graders or adults that apply logic at that level. Completely absurd.
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Old 12-24-2012, 08:10 PM    (permalink
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Oh darn, probably should stop posting in here then.
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Old 12-24-2012, 08:36 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jsagan77 View Post
Name on ******* game RG3 padded his stats in garbage time. I know you didn't specifically say him, but why say it if you weren't trying to imply something? Gawd The more people post the more convinced that this thread is littered with 3rd graders or adults that apply logic at that level. Completely absurd.
Overreaction much. I was making a point about how taking stats out of context is as useless as looking to a record to make assumptions about performance. I'm on record saying that I think RGIII should be rookie of the year. Nothing has changed. Go use some of your excess anger and angst to go write your dissertation or something professor.
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Old 12-24-2012, 08:42 PM    (permalink
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The Skins offense is multiple, it's not a college offense.
Interpret the stats however you want, but don't come back with the inane conclusion that Kyle's offense allows RGIII not to take risks or play conservatively.

Yes a productive ground game is a rookie QB's best friend, but let's not pretend as if it's the running game alone that's made the Skins one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league.

Is Russell Wilson's production this season inferior to Luck because he too has a 1400+ yard rusher???

It's the generalities people throw out about RGIII that are so maddening.
He never takes risks. It's his running game that allows him to be efficient.
He's running a college offense in Washington. His offense is predicated on swing passes, screens and checkdowns. RGIII is a glorified game manager.

BTW, I think you're misreading the significance of of YIA%. I don't know if there are any three NFL WRs on the same team who are better getting YAC than Garcon/Josh Morgan/Santana Moss. Also no other trio of WRs blocks for one another when they have the ball more than those three. It's not the result of an inordinate amount of screens and swing passes.

The Colts have been to the playoffs forever. They have one season last year where they're forced to start guys at QB who would be lucky to be 3rd stringers on most teams, and suddenly Andrew Luck 'saved' the franchise.

How many times in the last 20 years have the Skins won 9+ games in a season?? When's the last time they were in contention for the division crown??

Make no mistake, if there's one QB who's rescued a teetering, irrelevant franchise, it's RG3. Yeah Kirk Cousins was good enough to beat a bad Browns squad and he pulled two plays out of his ass late to help beat the Ravens, but this team isn't in the same position without RGIII.

Luck didn't 'save' anything. He merely helped the Colts make it back to the playoffs, exactly where they were two seasons ago.

3rd down efficiency, the rookie passing yardage record and win total are the only stats favoring Luck.
When Luck plays his final regular season game against the Texans, he will have over 600+ attempts, more than a hundred more passes thrown than Newton when he set the rookie passing yardage mark.
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Old 12-24-2012, 09:11 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by cmarq83 View Post
Overreaction much. I was making a point about how taking stats out of context is as useless as looking to a record to make assumptions about performance. I'm on record saying that I think RGIII should be rookie of the year. Nothing has changed. Go use some of your excess anger and angst to go write your dissertation or something professor.
What stats are being taken out of context?
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Old 12-24-2012, 09:13 PM    (permalink
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I respect most of what you are saying Funbuncher, unlike the mass of Redskin's trolls here, but we are arguing two different criteria :)

If you vote for OROY from an efficiency standpoint there is no arguing RGIII would take the vote.

If you vote from a "pop culture" standpoint (Yardage, Completion %, Game Winning Drives, 4th Quarter Comebacks, etc) it is honestly a three-way-race.

If you vote from a "MVP" criteria (individual contributions to overall team success) I can't see how you can argue that RGIII means more to the Redskins than Luck does to the Colts. I mean you said it yourself. 600+ attempts, yardage record, while having one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. RGIII will have about half those attempts while having the #1 rushing attack in the league. I know he contributes to the rushing attack but Alfred Morris is a LEGIT 1400+ yard back through 15 games.
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Old 12-24-2012, 11:07 PM    (permalink
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What stats are being taken out of context?
A whole bunch throughout this stupid debate. They're no more relevant without context than a record is. That is the entirety of the point I made.
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