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Old 01-02-2013, 11:53 AM    (permalink
hockey619
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Default Trap QB's

This may seem a bit premature with the season still going, but its an observation I feel warrants discussion.

Changes in league rules have lead to a large number of successful QB's, and a lot who are good early in their careers. As a matter of fact, most QB's who arent good to begin their careers (first two years) are just not good QB's and should be moved on from right away. As shown recently, guys who dont succeed early with the way the rules are just dont seem to succeed at all. All of these good or better QBs have made it more common to have a 'Franchise QB.'

But are there really more franchise guys? Or guys who are good masquerading as franchise saviors? This leads me to this idea...



Trap QB- a QB whos talent (or circumstance with surrounding talent plus current league rules) is above average/good and allows the team to win games, but simultaneously this QB is also not good enough to win the super bowl. Team believes finding a superior player is unlikely with the draft spot the QB gets them (high teens and 20's) and dont want to invest in moving up for a top talent guy and starting over because they believe they are another piece or two away from winning the big one/believe finding a superior replacement to be unlikely/ etc reasons.
Basically, a trap QB is not good enough to beat an elite guy (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers) without an all star cast but not bad enough to clearly warrant replacing yet appears to have reached his peak level of success. Thus, his team is "trapped," or stuck with said player and level of success/near success.

current trap QBs:
Romo
Flacco
Cutler
Schaub
Vick
Rivers


Guys who might be but its too early to tell for sure
Stafford
Newton
Ryan

These guys might be trap qbs or might just not be very good at all
Freeman
Bradford
Fitzpatrick



What say you DC? do you agree with the idea of trap Qbs (franchise qb posers, whatever you want to call them)? Do you agree/disagree with the names?
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:07 PM    (permalink
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Trap QBs??

You mean like?


I think it''s way too critical to call a less than elite QB a 'trap'.

Flacco IMO is the modern day Vinny Testaverde. Expecting him to win games by himself is a fool's quest.
Romo needs a good psychiatrist.
Vick is a tease, never has been a champ.
Schaub is okay if his team is great around him.
Cutler is just arrogant and needs to learn to play with more discipline.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:20 PM    (permalink
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Players good enough to make you think they give you a chance, but not good enough to actually give you a chance.

Basically, Joe Flacco is the prime example of it.
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Old 01-02-2013, 12:40 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
I think it''s way too critical to call a less than elite QB a 'trap'. The goal is to win SBs. The general consensus is elite QBs win you super bowls. If theyre enough of a tease to make you hang on, then theyre trapping your franchise in the mediocre/mildly successful category.

Flacco IMO is the modern day Vinny Testaverde. Expecting him to win games by himself is a fool's quest. expecting him to win a super bowl is also a fools quest. but hey, with a ton of help who knows, he could lose to rodgers in the SB.

Romo needs a good psychiatrist. Maybe a QB coach instead. Possibly some more passing talent.

Vick is a tease, never has been a champ. A tease. Exactly, more or less proving my point. If he was never going to win the Eagles the SB, then why did they keep him going into this year? why didnt they look to replace him? because there was no one better available to replace him? exactly, he trapped them for this year. His talent/ previous performance was too much to just pass on or easily replace, but not enough to get them the SB. Thus, trapped.

Schaub is okay if his team is great around him. Exactly. so without a great team, hes just another guy. I believe good TEAMS win the super bowl, but great Qb's are a big part of that. The talent of the team around the QB comes into play when two greats face off. Other than that, great Qb with solid team beats solid QB with great team almost everytime. In the playoffs, you have to repeatedly beat great QBs to win the SB. I could see one of these guys beating a Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees on occassion, but not one right after the other.

Cutler is just arrogant and needs to learn to play with more discipline. He'll be thirty this spring. This has been the drawback with Cutler his whole career. Will he ever get it together, get a bit more accurate, and win for his team? I think he'll continue to trap the bears. hes just good enough to keep them hanging on.
answers bolded.

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Players good enough to make you think they give you a chance, but not good enough to actually give you a chance.

Basically, Joe Flacco is the prime example of it.
more or less, yeah. he'll keep you hanging around and thinking 'this is the year!' but itll never quite be his year.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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I've never had a term for it I guess until now, but I can certainly agree with the concept of a "trap" player or coach. I think Fitzpatrick definitely deserves to go in that first group, as even if he's perhaps not as good as the others, mainly because of the team he plays for. He's just good enough for the Bills to feel that another area is of bigger need, but not good enough to lead them anywhere.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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If you can't definitely upgrade the QB your team currently has, even if he's a trap I think it's hard to get rid of the incumbent starter.
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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This is silly.

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl.

You could have said this about Peyton Manning until the Colts' fluke run in 2006. Or you could say this about Dan Marino.

Who would you rather have...Dan Marino, or Trent Dilfer, Jim Plunkett, Jim McMahon, Jeff Hostetler, or Brad Johnson?
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Old 01-02-2013, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Man, if NFL coaches acknowledges this idea and acted upon it, the turnover rate in the NFL at the QB position would be absolutely nutty.

Anyways, I think it's a little naive to believe that any QB can't win a Superbowl.

Someone like Romo seems to fit this concept perfectly. But outside him, the lines blur and the ideas seem to cross.

Are we really saying that Flacco is a trap? Peyton Manning played for 8-9 seasons before he won a Superbowl. Joe Flacco is on his 5th and we're suppose to believe that he's destined for failure?

I feel like we're only a few years off of people claiming that rookies need to win the Superbowl their first year or they're a bust lol.
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Old 01-02-2013, 02:34 PM    (permalink
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So basically you just listed every good to decent QB who hasn't won a Super Bowl yet.
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Old 01-02-2013, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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Well yeah, that's the point. The QB's are good, but not good enough to win a team a Superbowl.

I don't necessarily agree with it though. With the right circumstances I could see a lot of those QB's winning a Superbowl. Joe Flacco was inches away from going to the Superbowl last year and it wasn't his fault that they didn't make it.

Maybe if it's Tony Romo and he's ****** up hundreds of times, you could call him a trap QB, but it's too early to say it about the other QB's.
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Old 01-02-2013, 02:44 PM    (permalink
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Of your list of guys that you think are definite "trap" QBs, I could easily see Flacco, Cutler, or Schaub winning a Super Bowl. All it takes is one hot game, and they all have the talent/skills to do that.

It's not like every elite QB who won a Super Bowl won it himself.

Since 2000:

Brady XXXIX, XXXVI
Eli XLII
Peyton XLI
Johnson XXXVII
Ben XLIII, XL
Dilfer XXXV

A good 20 starting QBs in the league could easily duplicate or better (by a lot) these performances. Those 8 super bowls had the winning QB put in a performance that could be classified as somewhere between "bad" and "slightly above average." That's 8 out of 11. The concept that you need an elite QB to win a Super Bowl is so far from the truth that it's astounding.

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Old 01-02-2013, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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I reject the premise of a trap QB because I seriously doubt there is many QBs that CAN'T win a SB without the proper talent around them and those that exist. Hell even Mark Sanchez made it to a pair of AFC Championship games and he is god awful. Are there QBs that aren't elite/never will be but are just too good to let go yeah I think that list you have is accurate for the "definite trap QBs". With that said I don't think Vick is good enough to be considered a trap specially with the fact that the Eagles ARE getting rid of him.
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Old 01-02-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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Alex Smith will soon be on this list,
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:48 PM    (permalink
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This is silly.

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl. Cool story.

You could have said this about Peyton Manning until the Colts' fluke run in 2006. Or you could say this about Dan Marino. Except, you know, they both played infinitely better than Cutler/Flacco/etc ever have. Manning and Marino commanded their teams, made great throws, and were great players via the eye ball test. These other guys are definitely not in the same class.

And i really cannot believe i just had to tell you Flacco and Cutler are not on the same level as Manning and Marino. Either youre not understanding the concept or youre hopefully very new to football and not this naturally dim.
Reading. Comp. Try it, its fun.
I was talking about recently due to the rule changes, note the very beginning of my post. Say past 2005/6 or so, no mediocre QB has been to the SB since Big Ben in his second year (he was mediocre at the time and played terrible in the game) while in the same span the NFL has become a very passing oriented league with a lot of QBs putting up numbers that used to be reserved for the elite few.

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Originally Posted by Bengalsrocket View Post
Man, if NFL coaches acknowledges this idea and acted upon it, the turnover rate in the NFL at the QB position would be absolutely nutty.

Anyways, I think it's a little naive to believe that any QB can't win a Superbowl.

Someone like Romo seems to fit this concept perfectly. But outside him, the lines blur and the ideas seem to cross.

Are we really saying that Flacco is a trap? Peyton Manning played for 8-9 seasons before he won a Superbowl. Joe Flacco is on his 5th and we're suppose to believe that he's destined for failure? Well, lets look at it quickly. Has Flacco at any point shown himself to be of a similar caliber to early career Manning during his first years with the Ravens? No, not in the slightest imo. Hes put up good numbers in the era of 'anyone can pass for 300+ yards because because the rules very much favor the O.' Im saying the NFL GMs are going to start to catch up to the idea that even though hes putting up big numbers, hes not a big time player because EVERYONE is putting up those numbers now. If the trend continues and only elite top level guys win super bowls, then teams need to start moving on faster from these trap QBs because no matter what you surround them with, if they have to dual a better QB youre SOL.
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Of your list of guys that you think are definite "trap" QBs, I could easily see Flacco, Cutler, or Schaub winning a Super Bowl. All it takes is one hot game, and they all have the talent/skills to do that. Except they dont. And it doesnt take one hat game, for two of them itll require 4 hot games to win the big one. Im erring on the side of 'aint happening.' Youre telling me that they can out dual brady then manning then Rodgers? Yeah sorry thats not happening, ill sig bet you right this second neither schaub nor Flacco are winning the super bowl this year or ever. And if flacco had the potential to take his team to the SB, then why have the ravens waited to re sign him?

It's not like every elite QB who won a Super Bowl won it himself.

Since 2000:

Brady XXXIX, XXXVI
Eli XLII
Peyton XLI
Johnson XXXVII
Ben XLIII, XL
Dilfer XXXV

A good 20 starting QBs in the league could easily duplicate or better (by a lot) these performances. Those 8 super bowls had the winning QB put in a performance that could be classified as somewhere between "bad" and "slightly above average." That's 8 out of 11. The concept that you need an elite QB to win a Super Bowl is so far from the truth that it's astounding.
and yet in the time frame ive been talking about with the rule changes (2005/6 onward, more recent then your sampling) there have been no mediocre QBs to win the super bowl. Maybe they didnt perform amazing, but they out performed the other QB, who most of the time was also a great QB.

Since 2006:
Pmanning vs Grossman
Emanning v Brady
Ben v Warner
Brees v PManning
Ben v Rodgers
EManning v Brady

Only Grossman stands out on that list, the rest were great QB v great QB.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 01-02-2013, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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I never knew that QBs played each other directly. I thought they played the defense.

Brees is considered elite, but only when his defense isn't the worst of all time and he still has his HC.

The QB just gets far too much credit.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:12 PM    (permalink
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I also think that in these days it has become a self fulfilling prophesy when a team wins a super bowl their QB is instantly considered good in that time frame.
For example if Grossman won two Super Bowls people would start considering him elite.
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Old 01-02-2013, 07:15 PM    (permalink
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I never knew that QBs played each other directly. I thought they played the defense. They do. And it seems to be that the better QB regularly wins.

Brees is considered elite, but only when his defense isn't the worst of all time and he still has his HC.

The QB just gets far too much credit.
I personally believe this too. But using the basic line of thought of many (elite qbs = super bowl) i came to this idea of trap qbs. Watch:


Elite Qbs win the SB.
Flacco/Romo/Cutler/Schaub/etc are not elite.
Therefore, said group will never win the super bowl.
If they will never win the SB, and thats the goal, then why are teams hanging onto them?

I think this theory holds some water, but may need more time with these rule changes to get more samples. But to me, this is starting to look clearer.

If youre picking a game, you usually pick the team with the better QB to win, and that is true, the team with the better QB usually wins. If an above average guy has to beat 3+ great QBs to win the SB, the law of averages is against him.

But these guys fighting the odds are still putting up good numbers thanks to the passer friendly rules of the current NFL. So their team is going to be very hesitant to move on from them. Thus, theyre trapped hoping.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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Seriously, this thread is stupid. If someone designated as a "trap QB" wins this year, what's gonna happen?

Answer: People will start calling him an "elite QB" and this idea will continue on and on and on and on. People who have this idea will call anyone without a ring a "non-elite" or "trap" QB.

If you take away Eli's Super Bowl wins, he's essentially Joe Flacco or Matt Schaub, yes?

I HATE HATE HATE HATE how people use Super Bowl wins as an individual stat for QBs and QBs alone. No one ever calls Kevin Faulk a Top 5 all time RB because he has 3 rings.

No one ever gives defenses credit. Big Ben can go 9-of-23 for 121 yards with no TDs and 2 picks, winning on a trick play in which an average third receiver throws a TD...while being drastically outperformed by the patron saint of mediocre QBs...but yeah, takes an elite QB to win a super bowl! Mark Sanchez has been to two championship games. You think he can't luck his way into a super bowl appearance? You think once he's there, he can't throw up a stinker like that? Hell, it's his average game. ANY quarterback can win the super bowl.

That super bowl win by Big Ben that I talked about? No one ever denies him credit for it even though he tried his hardest to drag the Steelers into the loss column. It's always "Big Ben, two-time Super Bowl winning QB." The two rings are always brought into the conversation when comparing him to other QBs.

(note: Big Ben is a hell of a QB. I'm not claiming that he isn't. But when you have one of the worst super bowl performances ever, you've earned the right to be brought up in this thread)
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Old 01-02-2013, 08:47 PM    (permalink
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Wow. You could have said the same thing about Eli Manning even during his 2007 season heading into the playoffs. Didn't he have a quarterback rating in the low 70's that year? Yet they won the Super Bowl.

It's a team sport. Quarterbacks have a lot to do with the success, but really, you still need a decent overall team to win the big dance. What was the last team that didn't really have any playmakers on offense or defense and the quarterback carried their asses to a ring?
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Old 01-02-2013, 09:13 PM    (permalink
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I think the idea of a trap QB has merit and I think the trap QB poster boy is Tony Romo.

Now the way to get around this problem is not to just cut Romo and start a QB carousel. The way to handle is even though you have Romo and you think he is pretty good, draft a QB high went some value falls in your lap during the draft. Maybe the could have taken a shot on Kaepernick or Dalton last year(just for an example). Bring someone in to compete and if they show something, drop Romo and move on. Staying static with Romo for 10 years just isn't working.
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Old 01-04-2013, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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How is Matt Ryan in the OP at all?
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Old 01-04-2013, 08:19 PM    (permalink
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How is Matt Ryan in the OP at all?
He's there because every QB who hasn't won a super bowl ring is not able to.

Duh.
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Old 01-05-2013, 10:41 AM    (permalink
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I like this concept a lot. And I'm adding Andy Dalton to the list of quarterbacks who fit this description.

I think Andy Dalton is a solid qb, he is productive and can lead you to the playoffs, but he also has some very noticeable limitations to his game, and in some ways, his lack of arm strength holds this Bengals offense back from being a top tier offense in the league.

I don't see him taking his team to a SB bc of his limitations.

And as it's been said by many posters before me, this era of football is different. If you look at the SB quarterbacks from 06-now, it's been a battle of elite quarterbacks.

One of my pet peeves is when we say "if you surround him with the right talent"

That's great in theory, but we have to understand what era of football we're in. This is the free agency era, you're rarely if ever going to see a complete team from top to bottom. Every team has flaws. No team is complete. It's up to the quarterback to make up for those flaws and rise to the occasion in the playoffs. That's what separates quarterbacks.

And it's no surprise that when we get into the playoffs, where the overall talent of every team is relatively the same, the cream rises to the top and the SB is btw 2 elite quarterbacks. They're the tiebreaker in the playoffs, and in a game that's so heavily dependent on quarterback play, they are the difference.

I've said it in the past and I'll keep saying it bc I strongly believe in this: If you do not have a top 10 quarterback on your roster, you should actively attempt to obtain one. Bc until you do, your team's ability to reach the Super Bowl is strongly impacted.

To me, the NFC is btw the Falcons and Packers and the AFC is btw the Patriots and Broncos for this exact reason. The teams with the best quarterbacks have a significantly better chance of reaching the SB in today's era. It's just how the game is now.

And please don't talk to me about Trent Dilfer. Football in 2000 was a different game. And we're talking about arguably a top 3 defense of all time winning the SB that year. That's what we call an outlier in statistical probability. It happens. Doesn't mean it's a good idea to base your team's philosophy off of a statistical outlier. That's bad football.
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Old 01-05-2013, 10:44 AM    (permalink
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For the record, my personal belief is that you do not necessarily need an elite qb to make the SB, but you do need a top 10 qb.

So the Matt Schaubs, Joe Flaccos, Andy Daltons of the world, they're trap quarterbacks to me.
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Old 01-05-2013, 10:58 AM    (permalink
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How are people still down on Dalton? he's not the most amazing QB ever, but he's doing everything you could hope from a player as young as him. I don't know if he can beat Manning or Brady this year (it will be a struggle just to beat Flacco / Schaub for this team) but he's well beyond the point that people would expect out of a 2nd year QB.

If he stops developing (and the offense stops developing) sure, he probably won't win a Superbowl. But I can definitely see the Bengals being competitive for the next few years, especially since all of our talent is extremely young.
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