Poll: Rookie of the Year (week 16)

[J-Mike88]

Originally Posted by G Mobile

Classic right here.

He never said stats are completely worthless. You are the only one saying that at anytime. Stats should help an argument not be the only important thing. You act like people not picking Griffin means we are directly attacking him and saying he sucks. We all like Griffin, but some disagree who is RoY. Quit being childish with the "Luckhugger" quips too.

LOL !

Nice brownie point attempt with the HeadMod.... we see what you did there.

I have to admit I didn't invent or trademark the LuckHugger term, but I think it fits to a bunch of people in here.The people who didn't watch a single Colts game in full but are going along with the crowd with the loud.

I guess that's better than being a "ModHugger".

Anyway, so some are saying these stats don't mean much?
I will be clear: I say they mean A LOT. About 80-90% or so of the criteria is summed up in here:


Another thing, and this might just be me, is that it's funny when people say "Well Luck has so many more Ints, and his defenders say "Yeah but that's because they ask him to do more, pass more... you'll get that if you do it more naturally".
OK. Is that valid?

If it is, then it's also interesting to note that despite Griffin and Wilson running much more than Andrew, the 2 QBs RG3 and Wilson have a combined 5 lost fumbles, same as Luck by himself. They ask them to run more, you'd expect (and accept I guess) more fumbles as with Luck and his Ints.

Apples to apples?

[falloutboy14]

I'm willing to bet that the majority of the fumbles in that chart are due to standing in the pocket and getting sacked/fumbled, as opposed to scrambling.

[21ST]

Originally Posted by falloutboy14

I'm willing to bet that the majority of the fumbles in that chart are due to standing in the pocket and getting sacked/fumbled, as opposed to scrambling.

Actually they are mostly due to botched handoffs

[njx9]

Originally Posted by J-Mike88

LMAO!!!
Classic right there.

So erase all the stats and let's just let you put in your professional expert analysis, since you watched all the games live, and with coach film, and since you evaluates the opponents and their level, and each QB's supporting cast and their performences. And the weather. And the refs calls, etc.

Just erase the stats, ignore em, and go by what you would like the stats to mean.

"Context"... LOL !

yes, it's completely black and white. i don't think stats should ever be used under any circumstances for any reason.

do you not understand that there might possibly be a middle ground, or are you just trying to play the 'lolz mods are teh dumb' game and failing miserably at it?

Originally Posted by J-Mike88

I guess that's better than being a "ModHugger".

pathetic. grow up.

[Brodeur]

What the **** is going on

[49erNation85]

on a side note. A fun show coming on MTV Thursday night called Buck Wild looks prettying entertaining.

[xooberon]

Originally Posted by xooberon

I posted this in the old thread but now updated through week 17:

Drop % (% of pass att that are dropped): RGIII - 8.9 (1st overall), Luck - 7.8 (joint 3rd overall), Wilson - 6.1

Accuracy % (what completion% would look like when drops, spikes, throw aways etc aren't factored in): RGIII - 79.6 (2nd overall), Wilson - 77.1, Luck - 67.2

YIA% (% of yards that come before the catch): Luck - 62.8 (3rd overall), Wilson - 61.4, RGIII - 53.2

Deep Passing Acc % (completion % (including drops) of balls thrown for 20 yards or more): RGIII - 50.0, Wilson - 48.4, Luck - 42.6 [Important to note that RGIII attempts deep throws about half as much as Wilson and Luck]

Pressure % (% of dropbacks under pressure): Wilson - 39.2 (2nd overall), Luck - 38.1, RGIII - 34.6

Completion % Under Pressure: RGIII - 56.7 (1st overall), Wilson - 45.0, Luck - 39.9

Accuracy % Under Pressure: RGIII - 75.8 (1st overall), Wilson - 66.0, Luck - 54.9

Source: PFF

Updated for week 17.

[G Mobile]

Jesus J-Mike, are you serious?

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by njx9

because again, who needs context when you can just look at box scores and know everything there is to know about a sport? i assume you just "watch" games on the gamecenter thing, so that you don't have to worry about why a play gained 10 yards, just that 10 yards were gained. because that's ALL THAT MATTERS.

Honestly, context is only good if your objective. Luck can do all the bad stuff and it's ignored or blamed on something else. If you have seriously seen every snap of all 3 of these guys to make a sincere judgement then fine but looking at what people say it's obvious they haven't seen enough of each to make an accurate assessment.


I've now been able to watch almost every snap of Luck and RG3 that's why I don't talk about Wilson. I've just started watching him and haven't gotten enough info to really gauge him.

That said, watching all these QB's has been a treat. They're the future of this league and have been awsome. What I've learned watching them is that the numbers are very accurate to the product on the field. RG3 has looked much better overall as Luck has a lot of 'rookie moments'. Errant passes, staring down recievers forcing throws. RG3 does some of that but not close to what Luck does. Another thing that can't be understated is consistency. RG3 has been veteranesque and Luck has struggled mightily in that department. He does some stuff where ur like wow, then your like Wtf? And it's not his offense asking him to push the ball as he has an outlet reciever on evey play and utilizes it quite well but often times he makes the wrong decision and throws ill advised passes when he does't have to. Mastering taking what the D gives you is an artform that RG3 has mastered and and Luck hasn't And that's a big deal in my eyes. Why do folks think Arod, Manning and Brady have such stellar numbers every year? They take what the D gives them and have learned that pushing the ball down field is a fools errand. Trusting your playmakers is a critical Part of becoming an elite QB. These guys don't force throws very often and that's why they've registerred the type of seasons they have. Don't get me wrong they throw down field but normally they try to methodicalky work their way down the field. Luck has been clutch though but so have the other guys. The 4th quarter clutchness has been good but still you have to take in why he's needed to do that and form a contextual argument as to whats more important being consistent throughout the game enough to keep your team winning or close or being inconsistent for 55 min and pulling it out in the end.

After watching so much tape i'm convinced that RG3 is the clear cut winner here and Wilson seems to be the closest player to him.

[J-Mike88]

Originally Posted by njx9

yes, it's completely black and white. i don't think stats should ever be used under any circumstances for any reason.

pathetic. grow up.

You are the one who creates the tone here.

You don't like what the stats show, so you throw out wise-ass cracks or insults.

Yeah, you tell me to grow up.
That's like Rex Ryan telling Leslie Frazier, or Tom Landry, to tone it down.

If you want to do something good here, reset the voting now that the season is in the books.
Let's see what the panel looks like now instead of 4 weeks ago.

[ChiFan24]

Let's be honest, none of these pussies have anything on MD Jennings. Or Juron McMillon. Whichever one is the rookie.

[Rob S]

Originally Posted by Brodeur

What the **** is going on

The SWDC Pro Football forum.....that's what's going on.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by xooberon

I posted this in the old thread but now updated through week 17:

Drop % (% of pass att that are dropped): RGIII - 8.9 (1st overall), Luck - 7.8 (joint 3rd overall), Wilson - 6.1

Accuracy % (what completion% would look like when drops, spikes, throw aways etc aren't factored in): RGIII - 79.6 (2nd overall), Wilson - 77.1, Luck - 67.2

YIA% (% of yards that come before the catch): Luck - 62.8 (3rd overall), Wilson - 61.4, RGIII - 53.2

Deep Passing Acc % (completion % (including drops) of balls thrown for 20 yards or more): RGIII - 50.0, Wilson - 48.4, Luck - 42.6 [Important to note that RGIII attempts deep throws about half as much as Wilson and Luck]

Pressure % (% of dropbacks under pressure): Wilson - 39.2 (2nd overall), Luck - 38.1, RGIII - 34.6

Completion % Under Pressure: RGIII - 56.7 (1st overall), Wilson - 45.0, Luck - 39.9

Accuracy % Under Pressure: RGIII - 75.8 (1st overall), Wilson - 66.0, Luck - 54.9

Source: PFF


Updated for week 17.

These are the best conxtual stats I've seen and shows why RG3 and Wilson should edge out Luck. To lead the NFL in a bunch of categories once all playing fields are the same is insane.

[jsagan77]

How is it bad? Because it is objective? I'd say taking out the human element is the way to gauge

Originally Posted by AntoinCD

QBR is one of the worst barometers of QB play imaginable. If I can throw my team all the way to the one yard line and the RB punches it in it somehow counts against me? Likewise if JJ Watt is coming full steam ahead at me it benefits my QBR to take a sack rather than throw the football away. QBR points go up but the team goes backwards??? How does that work?

Ben Roethlisberger is a great example of someone who has an over inflated QBR. Seldom does he throw the ball away. He is responsible for so many bad (and good) plays because instead of living to fight another day and throwing it away he extends plays and is often sacked. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning also take less sacks because they are not afraid to throw it away as the worst that can happen is an incompletion.

Big Ben maybe the most underrated QB in the NFL. He's better than Eli IMHO and I don't see his QBR inflated, it looks pretty simlar to what you see from a prouction and Lack of mistakes standpoint...

[tmljeh19]

Basically whomever wins this week between the Skins and Seahawks should and probably will get ROY. As of now Id say its...

1. Griffin/Wilson
2. Morris
3. Luck

[J-Mike88]

A few more facts & figures, from our friends at Football Outsiders.
Our holy Mod said stats weren't just black & white, add some context. I guess that's what these number-crunchers do at FO.


Top 5: Rookie Edition

1) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 1,014 DYAR (867 passing DYAR, 147 rushing)
2) Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: 838 DYAR (729 passing DYAR, 109 rushing)
3) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: 379 DYAR (255 passing DYAR, 124 rushing)
4) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: 39 DYAR (37 passing DYAR, 2 rushing)
5) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: -266 DYAR (-290 passing DYAR, 24 rushing)


Wilson surpasses Ryan for the top rookie quarterback season in FO's database and becomes the first freshman at the position to surpass the 1,000 DYAR barrier. (Ryan actually edged over 1,000 DYAR passing, but negative rushing value dropped him below the line.) He also tied Manning's rookie record with 26 touchdown passes, and when you include his four rushing scores, only Cam Newton (21 touchdowns passing, 14 rushing) produced more combined touchdowns in his first year.

Griffin finishes fourth all-time among rookies in our DYAR database behind Wilson, Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, and Luck is 13th. Luck set a rookie record with 4,374 passing yards, but he completed fewer than 55 percent of his passes and had 18 interceptions, more than Griffin (5) and Wilson (10) combined.

[Halsey]

individual stats are nice, but what about overall team stats. That's where the strongest arguments for Luck are. His team is 11-5 despite a running game and defense that rank in the bottom third of the league. The only area I see the Colts ranking highly is passing offense. Also, Luck is the Colts rushing TD leader and scored almost half their rushing TDs. Honestly, Luck might be as valuable to his team as any player in the league. That's an area where he has a bit of an advantage over the other contenders.

[J-Mike88]

Originally Posted by Halsey

individual stats are nice, but what about overall team stats. That's where the strongest arguments for Luck are. His team is 11-5 despite a running game and defense that rank in the bottom third of the league. The only area I see the Colts ranking highly is passing offense. Also, Luck is the Colts rushing TD leader and scored almost half their rushing TDs. Honestly, Luck might be as valuable to his team as any player in the league. That's an area where he has a bit of an advantage over the other contenders.

Measuring "value" is tricky in & of itself.
We all know that the QB is almost always the most valuable player on the team.
If they play well, they tend to win.
If they play badly, well look at Arizona and Kansas City.

It's easier to just reward performance and production and not try to take into accout their "worth"... their salary, what might happen if they got hurt, etc... too many variables.
I go by what I saw from them, what they did, their overall production, team wins, and personal stats. All 3, plus the 2 RB's Morris and Martin, all have very worthy numbers.... compare them to Sam Bradford's 2 years ago WTF.

[badgerbacker]

I'd say it's a tossup between Russell Wilson and RGIII. Luck is obviously in the conversation, but in my opinion the turnovers is what keeps him out of it. If the Colts were the only team of the 3 to make the playoffs he would have a better shot, but they weren't. If it was the "Most Valuable Rookie," Luck would have a better shot, but it isn't. In my opinion, this is an award that should be based on a combination of team performance (basically even for the 3) and individual statistics (Luck clearly behind the other two).

I like Luck a lot (say that 10 times, fast), but I think people are trying to find excuses to give him the award because of how good of a career they think he'll have. Losing the Rookie of the Year award doesn't mean Luck wouldn't go #1 again if the draft were re-held today. He's had an amazing rookie season, but unfortunately for him, two other rookie QBs had better seasons.

[jsagan77]

Originally Posted by Halsey

individual stats are nice, but what about overall team stats. That's where the strongest arguments for Luck are. His team is 11-5 despite a running game and defense that rank in the bottom third of the league. The only area I see the Colts ranking highly is passing offense. Also, Luck is the Colts rushing TD leader and scored almost half their rushing TDs. Honestly, Luck might be as valuable to his team as any player in the league. That's an area where he has a bit of an advantage over the other contenders.

We've already debunked Indy's run game fallacy. It can be chalked up to two things: bad coaching, and having to abandon the run due to falling behind (which guessing by his 4th quarter comebacks is much more the reason).

As far as defenses, until rescently, RG3 had a worse D.

Then there is the passing offense. Sure Luck is on a different level than the other two but only because he's thrown so many passes (which begs the question, why is his TD number not in sync with his passing attempts.

You also have to take their schedules into account. Luck's by far had the easiest schedule of the big 3 and rarely ever dominated an entire game (notice I said rarely).

And finally RG3 was the only rookie to win his division. A division with the two very good (but inconsistent) teams including the SB champs who can take it to any team and the Boys who were one game away from hosting a playoff game. If RG3 had Lucks schedule he'd probably have a better record. After watching a vast amount of football featuring these three QB's it's not hard to mention Luck but RG3 has been much better and Wilson could be the best of the 3.

[Timbathia]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

And finally RG3 was the only rookie to win his division. A division with the two very good (but inconsistent) teams including the SB champs who can take it to any team and the Boys who were one game away from hosting a playoff game. If RG3 had Lucks schedule he'd probably have a better record

There are some very compelling arguments for RG3, but this is a weak one. Houston and the niners are way better than the NFCE, and Luck and Wilson had 11 wins to RG3's 8 (2 for Cousins). No way they get downgraded because they didnt win their divisions with 3 more wins each.

[njx9]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

We've already debunked Indy's run game fallacy. It can be chalked up to two things: bad coaching, and having to abandon the run due to falling behind (which guessing by his 4th quarter comebacks is much more the reason).

"chalking it up" to bad coaching doesn't make it go away, and doesn't mean it didn't have a high impact on a player's success. it's basically saying, "look the other way while i sweep this under the rug." shocking that your 'guess' is the worst possible case for luck. couldn't be that they had to make those comebacks because they abandoned the run early.

As far as defenses, until rescently, RG3 had a worse D.

through all of like, 4 weeks. we've been over this. indy's D was garbage all season. yours was putrid to start the year, then got significantly better.

Then there is the passing offense. Sure Luck is on a different level than the other two but only because he's thrown so many passes (which begs the question, why is his TD number not in sync with his passing attempts.

it doesn't beg that question at all.

And finally RG3 was the only rookie to win his division. A division with the two very good (but inconsistent) teams including the SB champs who can take it to any team and the Boys who were one game away from hosting a playoff game. If RG3 had Lucks schedule he'd probably have a better record. After watching a vast amount of football featuring these three QB's it's not hard to mention Luck but RG3 has been much better and Wilson could be the best of the 3.

already mentioned, but winning the nfc east is a joke and has no bearing whatsoever. especially when luck and wilson had some actual competition in their division. it's not impressive that rg3 took the division against yet another lame cowboys team, an imploding giants team, and one of the worst teams i've ever seen attempt to play nfl-level football. your "toughest division" silliness notwithstanding.

[cmarq83]

I hate how people use the term 'debunk' when they just state an opinion on a matter. Saying that it is bad coaching doesn't debunk anything.

[xjxdarren]

Originally Posted by jsagan77

We've already debunked Indy's run game fallacy. It can be chalked up to two things: bad coaching, and having to abandon the run due to falling behind (which guessing by his 4th quarter comebacks is much more the reason).

As far as defenses, until rescently, RG3 had a worse D.

Then there is the passing offense. Sure Luck is on a different level than the other two but only because he's thrown so many passes (which begs the question, why is his TD number not in sync with his passing attempts.

You also have to take their schedules into account. Luck's by far had the easiest schedule of the big 3 and rarely ever dominated an entire game (notice I said rarely).

And finally RG3 was the only rookie to win his division. A division with the two very good (but inconsistent) teams including the SB champs who can take it to any team and the Boys who were one game away from hosting a playoff game. If RG3 had Lucks schedule he'd probably have a better record. After watching a vast amount of football featuring these three QB's it's not hard to mention Luck but RG3 has been much better and Wilson could be the best of the 3.

What a shameless mutharfrucking puzzie.

[jsagan77]

Well Luck has had 3 easy pics dropped that won't be counted and a lost fumble. Clearly he's awesome.