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Old 01-05-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
gonzo1105
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Default First Mock of the year

I tend not to do any mocks until the regular season is complete. I also try to project how I believe a player will rise or fall as the draft process takes place. This means that just because blog mockers have a guy in the first round now or have another guy as a 2nd round prospect doesn't mean I believe they will remain there necessarily. I also have not put in any trades but I expect a slew of trades for QB's at the end of round 1 for teams that need them to jockey. With that said here you go:

1. Kansas City- Geno Smith QB West Virginia University

Anyone who believes that Kansas City is not going to take a QB is a fool. Even if they weren't sold on Smith or any of the other Quarterbacks, their other needs (CB and maybe DE) aren't really that enticing for a first overall pick. I will say this Andy Reid does love drafting Offensive and defensive lineman but even he has to know he needs his Donovan McNabb in KC.

2. Jacksonville- Bjoern Werner DE Florida State University

Werner is compared to J.J. Watt but I actually think he compares more favorably to Chris Long of the St. Louis Rams. Werner is stout in both pass and run defense and would be a great overall fit for an organization that could go in many different directions. Another positive is that Werner played Left defensive end in college so they will not have to move Mincey away from RDE.

3. Oakland- Demontre Moore DE Texas A and M University

Oakland, like Jacksonville, can go in many different directions with this pick. I dont believe they will take a QB here and will take Moore who is probably the best pure pass rusher on the defensive line in this draft. Hopefully this organization starts to draft football players instead of just looking at combine numbers.

4. Philadelphia- Dee Milliner CB Alabama

With the uncertainty surrounding both their LT and CB positions this was a much tougher pick but Philly's team is a mess and there are going to be big changes on the defensive side of the ball. I will say this, any Philly fan who believes that Jason Peters is going to bounce back from an Achilles Tendon tear and immediately return to All pro status are kidding themselves. The truth is he may never be the same type of player again. With that said, Philly will take their chances at this time and take a CB who they can plug in from day 1.

5. Detroit- Luke Joeckel OT Texas A and M

Joeckel is the type of player that at this point you cant pass up. He is arguably the best player in this draft and would be a solid pro at the least for the next 10-12 years at the LT position. With Milliner off the board, a pass rusher such as Ansah or Dion Jordan could also be possibilities.

6. Cleveland- Ezekial Ansah DE BYU

Cleveland also has some options with this pick including Manti Teo but MLB's don't go this high in the draft anymore and Ansah has unlimited potential as an all around build. He will continue to rise all the way to draft time and I fully expect him to be around the top 10 when that day comes. He comes in a pro ready body.

7. Arizona- Taylor Lewan OT Michigan

What a train wreck the Cardinals offensive line was this past year. Lewan falls right in their laps and even if they dont prefer Lewan, Eric Fisher would only be slight reach at this point. Arizona is another one of those teams that I see taking a higher rated player then trying to jump back into the first round to get their Quarterback

8. Buffalo- DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson

This Bills are known for kind of going off the board and as a Bills fan I love DeAndre Hopkins(Nuke). He was overshadowed by Sammy Watkins a year ago but with Watkins injuries this year Hopkins carried the passing game on his back pretty much all year long. He will add another piece to a Bills offense that needs playmakers to go with Spiller, Jackson, and Steve Johnson.

9. NY Jets- Dion Jordan OLB Oregon

This pick came down to Jordan and Mingo. The Jets desperately need pass rushers to their defense. I choose Jordan because while he can be inconsistent he has the body build that if taught correctly(which he should with Rex Ryan), he could be an absolute monster in the NFL. Mingo, to me, is too much of a boom or bust kind of guy. He could easily turn out to be Aaron Maybin due to his slight build.

10. Tennessee- Star Lotulelei DT Utah

Great Value in this pick. If Star falls out of the first 3 picks of the draft, I could easily see him dropping to this point in the draft. Tennessee makes this selection because while they have bigger needs they could still use a run stuffing DT in front of a struggling Colin McCarthy. This pick will hopefully improve both of those positions.

11. San Diego- Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan

I dont think that Fisher is that far behind Lewan in terms of positional value and with the Gaither situation hanging over their heads they really need to find a good young replacement. They get that here in Fisher who may never be elite but should lock down a key position on offense for years to come.

12. Miami- Kennan Allen WR Cal

Tannenhill needs better weapons if he is going to be successful. He has already showed signs and Allen should be able to become a solid # 1 or very good # 2 WR in the NFL.

13. Tampa Bay- Jonathan Banks CB Miss. St

Its pretty cut and dry. He has to be the selection. This is a huge need and he is the 2nd best CB in this draft.

14. Carolina- Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri

Richardson would fill a need for the Panthers in this scenario. He is more motivated on the field than both Hankins and Jenkins and Panthers fans can't realistically believe that Dwan Edwards is going to repeat the season he is just coming off of. They have neglected the middle of their defensive line and Richardson should make Keuchley better.

15. New Orleans- Manti Teo LB Notre Dame

Teo played middle linebacker in college but he is more than capable of playing the SAM LB spot in the pros. He also represents great value at this selection and insurance for Jon Vilma. This is the type of pick a Saints team would make with a lot of talent on its roster and it still improves its anemic defense.

16. St. Louis- Jarvis Jones LB Georgia

The Rams have been stockpiling top talent and they continue this by taking a chance on Jarvis Jones. Jones is a top 5 talent but has a medical condition which is sure to drop him down draft boards. He could even drop further than this selection. Jones should not be pigeon holed into a 3-4 defense because he is versatile enough to play in a 4-3 much like Von Miller.

17. Pittsburgh- Justin Hunter WR Tennessee

Mike Wallace will not be back with Steelers next year and I severely doubt that anyone is going to take Antonio Brown or Emmanuel Sanders as a # 1 WR. Hunter has that potential and while you could argue that the Steelers have bigger issues he represents decent value.

18. Dallas- Chance Warmack OG Alabama

I have a hard time putting Warmack this high because DeCastro was supposedly a once in a decade prospect and he went 23. This is fairly close to that selection and Dallas does need interior lineman bad and Warmack is the best of the bunch this year.

19. NY Giants- Kevin Minter LB LSU

Minter will be one of those guys who continues to rise up boards as the process continues. He is thought of as a 2nd round pick right now but the MLB will slide right into the middle of a Giants defense headed by Chase Blackburn at that spot currently.

20 Chicago- Johnathan Cooper OG North Carolina

Cutler has gotten killed the last two years. There are not any OT's outside of maybe Lane Johnson worth even consideration. so the Bears focus on the interior of their offensive line with the pick of Cooper.

21P Cincinnati- Matt Elam S Florida

I am not in love with Matt Elam as a cover guy but he is very physical inside the box and is a sure tackler. Elam compares pretty well to Donte Whitner in my opinion.

22P St. Louis (from Washington)- Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma

The Rams still need offensive line help. Johnson will rise up to the very least a top of the 2nd round type prospect but his versatility to play Left or Right Tackle should help him get into the latter part of the first half. It will also benefit him that Jake Matthews will most likely return to school.

23P Baltimore- Alec Ogletree LB Georgia

I have my doubts about this pick. I'm not sure if Ogletree has the bulk to be an inside LB in a 3-4 system but he is the best LB left that has first round talent. Ogletree is pretty raw but if he is coached up like most B-more defenders and could add 10 pounds he could wind up being a great selection for the Ravens

24P Minnesota- Terrance Williams WR Baylor

The Vikings need to get more play makers for Christian Ponder and the passing game. Percy Harvin, while dynamic, cant seem to stay healthy and Williams presents good value at WR for this pick.

25P Indianapolis- Barkavious Mingo LB LSU

I am not sold on Mingo as a prospect as he is very hit and miss. When he is on he looks fantastic but too often his size gets him engulfed by offensive lineman. He reminds me too much of Aaron Maybin to be honest and is very boom or bust.

26P Seattle- Sam Montgomery DE LSU

I thought about going in many different directions but decided that Montgomery value wise was too good to pass up. I wouldn't argue anyone saying to get Wilson more weapons as well.

27P Green Bay- Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State

Once thought of as a high first round pick, Hankins stock has fallen and I could see him dropping out of the first round. The run defense has been anemic for a green bay defense that has played a lot of young players this season. Hankins is a big run stuffing DT that should help alleviate some of these issues.

28P San Francisco- Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State

A big CB that could benefit greatly from a very good front seven. I dont really see any 3-4 DE's really worth taking at this slot and Rhodes could go much higher if he tests out well.

29P Houston- Kenny Vaccaro S Texas

Another really good value pick. Vaccaro drops because the need for safeties is not high and the priority of a S isn't very high. Houston can easily get more weapons in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for their offense.

30P New England- Alex Okafor OLB Texas

Not in love with this pick but I dont see the Pats using their first round pick on a WR. Okafor could replace Rob Ninkovich and would add to a young core of defense that has been put in place.

31P Atlanta- Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame

Eifert to me has been very disappointing but he benefits from a weak draft class. Eifert is a natural replacement for Gonzalez when he decides to retire and he is also a capable blocker.

32P Denver-Jordan Poyer CB Oregon State

Tony Carter has come on but he will likely get big money elsewhere if he keeps it up and Bailey will eventually tail off. Poyer is good value and a solid selection at the end of the 1st round.
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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I don't see why the Patriots wouldn't want a WR in the first. With Welker and Edelman about to hit FA the only receiver under contract is Brandon Lloyd, who has been somewhat of a disappointment so far. I don't see how we let Cordarelle Patterson get past us in this scenario.
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:18 PM    (permalink
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I don't see why the Patriots wouldn't want a WR in the first. With Welker and Edelman about to hit FA the only receiver under contract is Brandon Lloyd, who has been somewhat of a disappointment so far. I don't see how we let Cordarelle Patterson get past us in this scenario.
While true...Edelman will be back...he's not going to break the bank in Free Agency. We also know that New England wont be making that selection anyways as they will almost certainly trade it.
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Old 01-05-2013, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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nice draft, but I don't think there is anyway Ansah, Hopkins or Fisher go quite that high. Also don't see Hankins ever falling out of the top 15. I know his stats aren't great but I wouldn't say his stock has fallen, if I can see Ohio St haven't used him properly then I'm sure coaches will. He is used outside too much even though he looks a beast playing on the nose or 1 technique
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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Good job. But, you've got Lotulelei and Jarvis Jones going much lower than anyone else I've seen. Wouldn't be against Okafor for Pats. But, I'd prefer to see Hightower at that spot. If that's my line of thinking, or Belichick. Maybe, dt then. Jesse Williams or John Jenkins. I'd rather have more of a 3-tech. But, Belichick does like his big boys.
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Old 01-05-2013, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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I like Cooper but theres way better picks still on the board. Mingo, Johnson, Ogletree, Hankins, Montgomery or even Eifert would be a better pick. I feel like the Bears will address OLine in FA and focus on rebuilding their aging defense through the draft.
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Old 01-05-2013, 06:21 PM    (permalink
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Good job. But, you've got Lotulelei and Jarvis Jones going much lower than anyone else I've seen. Wouldn't be against Okafor for Pats. But, I'd prefer to see Hightower at that spot. If that's my line of thinking, or Belichick. Maybe, dt then. Jesse Williams or John Jenkins. I'd rather have more of a 3-tech. But, Belichick does like his big boys.
Star is lazy sometimes and I feel he is slightly overrated(just my opinion), Jones has a big time medical red flag, one where I can see him going much lower than 16 overall. If NFL teams take a guy who was supposed to retire because of his condition in the top 5 then they are taking a humongous risk
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Old 01-05-2013, 09:08 PM    (permalink
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If Te'o fell to us I would literally do a naked lap and take a crap in a neighbors yard.
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Old 01-05-2013, 09:40 PM    (permalink
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JR won't draft a first round LB, even with Ross leaving. Giants will be looking at the DL or secondary, maybe OL if there's no one they like at the other two.
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Old 01-05-2013, 10:56 PM    (permalink
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I don't hate the Mingo pick for the Colts. I am not sure yet that we have the coaching staff to develop him. But it a need and good value. Montgomery and Hankins would also be fine picks.
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Old 01-05-2013, 11:44 PM    (permalink
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solid 49ers pick ! Also a wide out might in be place .. But could be a second rounder there...
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:36 AM    (permalink
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It's almost impossible to mock the Raiders wrong. Great pick!
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Old 01-06-2013, 12:50 AM    (permalink
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JR won't draft a first round LB, even with Ross leaving. Giants will be looking at the DL or secondary, maybe OL if there's no one they like at the other two.
Exactly what I was gonna say. Give the Giants Hankins there
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Old 01-06-2013, 05:06 AM    (permalink
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I think Mingo is an excellent pick for the Colts.
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Old 01-06-2013, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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I DO NOT like the pick of Te'O for the Saints here. First, we have Curtis Lofton at MLB and he's pretty solid. Next, David Hawthorne played better at SLB for us though he's capable of moving to the weakside. If we do move him weak, I prefer either putting Martez Wilson in that strong side role or drafting Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones to play as a rush 4-3 OLB.

This is a perfect segue to my next point. With Jarvis Jones on the board, it would be a mistake to draft Te'o. Jones and Mingo would each provide us with something that we desperately need--a dynamic pass rusher. Te'O does not do that and would be, at best, a luxury pick here. Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of picking him with other guys who can fill needs still on the board.
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Old 01-06-2013, 05:08 PM    (permalink
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I DO NOT like the pick of Te'O for the Saints here. First, we have Curtis Lofton at MLB and he's pretty solid. Next, David Hawthorne played better at SLB for us though he's capable of moving to the weakside. If we do move him weak, I prefer either putting Martez Wilson in that strong side role or drafting Barkevious Mingo or Jarvis Jones to play as a rush 4-3 OLB.

This is a perfect segue to my next point. With Jarvis Jones on the board, it would be a mistake to draft Te'o. Jones and Mingo would each provide us with something that we desperately need--a dynamic pass rusher. Te'O does not do that and would be, at best, a luxury pick here. Unfortunately, we do not have the luxury of picking him with other guys who can fill needs still on the board.

I agree with not drafting teo for the saints but id flat out hate picking jones or mingo. If you want to give us a LSU DEnd the pick should be montyjohnathan hankins would also be a good pick. Jones is just flat out a 3-4 guy, dont believe anyone who tells you differently and mingo can play end in some some 4-3 schemes (although a 34 is also a better fit for him) but not the one spags runs
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- Corner or Wideout in the first
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- No Kelvin Benjamin
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Old 01-06-2013, 05:52 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a fan of Ogletree in the first round. At least not for Baltimore's system.
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Old 01-07-2013, 09:46 AM    (permalink
Seasonticketholder
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Originally Posted by wicket View Post
I agree with not drafting teo for the saints but id flat out hate picking jones or mingo. If you want to give us a LSU DEnd the pick should be montyjohnathan hankins would also be a good pick. Jones is just flat out a 3-4 guy, dont believe anyone who tells you differently and mingo can play end in some some 4-3 schemes (although a 34 is also a better fit for him) but not the one spags runs
I hear you wicket, but I think you are thinking of Jones and Mingo's role in a 4-3 the wrong way. Jones can easily play the same role that Von Miller plays with Denver, which is the old Darion Connor role with the Saints. Miller rushes the passer 80% of the time. While DE is our need, the true need is for an edge pass rusher. Jones and Mingo are both capable of being edge pass rushers in our scheme from the OLB position. It requires a simple wrinkle and the good thing is that both are adept at dropping back into coverage, especially Jones.

The other thing is, I think Mingo could play DE in Spags scheme. Let us not forget that Osi Umenyiora was 6'3, 255. Mingo is 6'4, 240, and has the chance to fill out another 15-20 pounds without sacrificing speed.

Hankins, to me, falls into the luxury category. We have Bunkley and Hicks. We need another tackle but our pass rush has been tepid. So Jones and Mingo would be better choices.
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Old 01-07-2013, 09:56 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Seasonticketholder View Post
I hear you wicket, but I think you are thinking of Jones and Mingo's role in a 4-3 the wrong way. Jones can easily play the same role that Von Miller plays with Denver, which is the old Darion Connor role with the Saints. Miller rushes the passer 80% of the time. While DE is our need, the true need is for an edge pass rusher. Jones and Mingo are both capable of being edge pass rushers in our scheme from the OLB position. It requires a simple wrinkle and the good thing is that both are adept at dropping back into coverage, especially Jones.

The other thing is, I think Mingo could play DE in Spags scheme. Let us not forget that Osi Umenyiora was 6'3, 255. Mingo is 6'4, 240, and has the chance to fill out another 15-20 pounds without sacrificing speed.

Hankins, to me, falls into the luxury category. We have Bunkley and Hicks. We need another tackle but our pass rush has been tepid. So Jones and Mingo would be better choices.
I agree that pass rush is the way bigger need conceptually but even though I like Hicks and Bunkley the latter is getting old and Hicks isnt a true starter calibre yet.

With regards to Jones and Miller comparison Von has shown way more speed and agility than Jones which means he can actually play on all three downs. I dont see Jones fitting well in the saints base D, partially because Spags D isnt a blitz based D. I know people will differ in opinion with me but I truely believe Jones is a pure 3-4 OLB and i dont see him being anywhere near the player he can be in any other scheme. His skillset is too particular for my taste.

With regards to Mingo my opinion is even more of a personal opinion but that kid has put on like 10 pounds in college and he doesnt seem to be able to put on much more, if only because of the frame of him. Also Osa has been a great pass rusher for a good part of his career but outside of his top 2 years he has always been a liability in run D and Mingo has shown similar issues at LSU already.

Basically Jones and Mingo are two of the only highly rated DLinemen I really dont want on the saints because of reason cited above. Well im also kinda going back and forth on Dion Jordan, his film just doesnt measure up with his measurables
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- No pass rusher till the fourth round (or preferably at all)
- Corner or Wideout in the first
- No reaching
- No Kelvin Benjamin
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