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Old 01-17-2013, 10:45 AM    (permalink
weasel
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Big changes coming this off-season!
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Old 01-17-2013, 11:44 AM    (permalink
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Lions are 1.1 million over but that includes 49 players. We shouldn't have problem filling out the roster with the rookies and vets like Heller and Muhlbach and Osgood because of the 51 player rule and vet reductions we can use. Justin Blackmon cap number was only 2.1 million last year as the 5th pick so no big deal with the draft.

However, we need to make room for the big free agents. Here's the easiest way.

Cut KVB. 5 million in room. KVB was beyond awful last year, addition by subtraction.
Pay cuts for Raiola and Burleson. 3 million each, 6 million total. Burleson has hinted at taking a pay cut already and said he wants to retire a Lion. If Raiola doesn't want to cut his base salary from 4 million to 1 million, cut him to save 4 million, he knows he can't start anywhere else in the league and nobody will give him close to 4 million.
Cut Peterman. 2.9 million we have Bill Nagy at 480 K former starter for the Cowboys and the draft.
Choose Backus or Gosder for the future. Cut Backus for 4 million and use that money to resign Gosder. Or keep Backus for 1 year with Reiff and let Gosder walk.
Mike Thomas/Robiskie/Tyrell Johnson cut 2.9 million saved.

Stafford extension which Mayhew eluded too already. This saves anywhere from 4 million to 7 million in cap space. Probably 4 million though thanks to the 2 restructures Stafford previously made. For instance Brees deal last year 5 year 100 million his cap number 10.1 million. That would be 10 million in savings for Stafford BUT they have to deal with the restrucutre signing bonus that is large (8 million for the next 2 years) so 4 million is the worst case savings IMO. And that's with a Brees type deal. If we get Stafford for less due to injuries and only one elite year, then we save closer to 7 million via less signing bonus than Brees got.

That's 19.7 to 22.7 million in cap room with 44 under contract. Plenty of room for Delmas, Houston, one OLB back (Durant or maybe a new guy like Daryl Smith), SLH and maybe a speed WR like Devery Henderson.

And let me put it this way. Brandon Carr got a 5 year 50 million contract and his cap number was only 3.1 in 2012. There are ways to manipulate to get Houston back. Tyvon Branch got 4 year 26 million with only a 2.1 million cap number in the first year. It all depends how Lewand structures these contracts.

Avril all depends how much he wants but I think we could get a similar DE easily if Avril walks. I like Israel Idonije and a top 5 DE pick with Willie Young as one backup. Avril played himself out of a good contract this year. A Jeremy Mincey type contract for Avril 4 year 27 million would be perfect (cap number 3.1) but that is all up to Avril and how much he thinks he's still worth after a very average year with more poor run defense.

Gosder depends on Backus. If they want Reiff/Gosder, they have 23.7 million in space by having Backus retire/cut and then they can use that 4 million in cap room to resign Gosder.

Lions can get the core back or similar players. I didn't even mention restructuring Suhs 18.7 million number which is possible too.

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Old 01-17-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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So in that plan
Lose Corey Williams but have Suh, Fairley and SLH
Lose DeAndre Levy for Palmer/Whitehead/Lewis
Lose KVB for top 5 DE
Lose Peterman for Bill Nagy or draft pick
Lose Gosder or Backus but keep Gosder or Backus with Reiff

Possibly lose Avril depending if he thinks he's worht more than he is but I'm sure Mayhew can get an equivalent in free agency on a cheaper deal

Keep Houston, Delmas, Durant, SLH and gain Devery Henderson

Add 2nd round safety and 5th,6th,7th round hopefully decent depth.
I'm not seeing a downside to the players lost.
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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His plan does not include references to Houston, Durant, Levy and Avril.
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Old 01-17-2013, 12:08 PM    (permalink
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His plan does not include references to Houston, Durant, Levy and Avril.
That's what the 19 million cap room will be for and for Devery Henderson. Not Levy though.
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Old 01-17-2013, 01:51 PM    (permalink
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Until we actually see what he does with his FA's, talking about adding FA's usually ends up being wishful thinking. It is going to be a tough off season and as we lose FA's, other priorities in the draft will open up and expand our draft board. We may well have to draft other positions if the loss of FA's exposes more holes on our defense.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:06 PM    (permalink
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Until we actually see what he does with his FA's, talking about adding FA's usually ends up being wishful thinking. It is going to be a tough off season and as we lose FA's, other priorities in the draft will open up and expand our draft board. We may well have to draft other positions if the loss of FA's exposes more holes on our defense.

The only people we cant' lose are Houston and Delmas IMO. There will be viable alternatives to Avril. maybe someone who can actually defend the run. Corey Williams we have Fairley. Gosder we have Reiff. Durant and Levy, meh.

Cutting KVB and Peterman is a good thing IMO.
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Old 01-17-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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http://www.freep.com/article/20130117/SPORTS01/301170319/detroit-lions-matthew-Stafford-s-contract-the-key-for-finding-salary-cap-relief?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Detroit%20Lions

http://www.freep.com/article/20130117/SPORTS01/130114053/detroit-lions-salary-cap-breakdown?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Detroit%20Lions

3.1 million over now.
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Old 01-17-2013, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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The only people we cant' lose are Houston and Delmas IMO. There will be viable alternatives to Avril. maybe someone who can actually defend the run. Corey Williams we have Fairley. Gosder we have Reiff. Durant and Levy, meh.

Cutting KVB and Peterman is a good thing IMO.
Cutting is easy, finding suitable replacements isn't. Other team's FA's are always more expensive than resigning your own so Mayhew has a tough road to hoe here, make no mistake.

Quite often, the expensive FA's available as replacements from other teams end up forcing a team to cut even more of its own FA's and forces a rethink of the whole draft.

This, IMO, is a crucial year in the Lion's development. Backus and Raiola may have to be replaced and our defense needs some help. This could go sour quickly if we make the wrong decisions or finish off a rebuilding process that began with Mayhew's hire.
Don't mind me but I'm nervous going in.
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Old 01-17-2013, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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Cutting is easy, finding suitable replacements isn't. Other team's FA's are always more expensive than resigning your own so Mayhew has a tough road to hoe here, make no mistake.

Quite often, the expensive FA's available as replacements from other teams end up forcing a team to cut even more of its own FA's and forces a rethink of the whole draft.

This, IMO, is a crucial year in the Lion's development. Backus and Raiola may have to be replaced and our defense needs some help. This could go sour quickly if we make the wrong decisions or finish off a rebuilding process that began with Mayhew's hire.
Don't mind me but I'm nervous going in.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...dge-defenders/

Every guy on this list is better than KVB. Give me Idonije (1 year 2.5 million number last year) and Werner with Young and Lewis as backups and let's go get the QB and play better run defense.

Backus is replaced with Reiff. Either get rid of Backus and use that money for Gosder or let Gosder walk and use Reiff at RT for one year then switch him to LT. Then in 2014 we'll need a new RT though.

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Old 01-18-2013, 11:02 AM    (permalink
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Once again I think we lose KVB and his 10.7 million number.
I feel we lose Burleson and his 6.5 million number.
Corey Williams will move on because we can't pay him.
Houston is going to want crazy money and i don't think we'll overpay.
This is Delmas second contract and he will be looking for bank and I feel he is injured too often to give him bank.
Avril will want ten million plus.
Flush the toilet and drop all these turds or keep them. We are already capped out. We might be able to restructure Burleson and KVB but how much can we save? Enough to keep one of the above players either Houston or Avril. And, maybe we could squeeze in Delmas...but getting FA to sign here after a 4-12 season for no mobey will be impossible. So I see no fix there.
If KVB and Avril go we need to draft a starting quality DE right off the top. If Houston is not retained, we will need a top flight corner. That's just common sense. Second round safety makes just as much sense whether we re-sign Delmas or not (even more if we do not).
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Old 01-18-2013, 11:03 AM    (permalink
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...dge-defenders/

Every guy on this list is better than KVB. Give me Idonije (1 year 2.5 million number last year) and Werner with Young and Lewis as backups and let's go get the QB and play better run defense.

Backus is replaced with Reiff. Either get rid of Backus and use that money for Gosder or let Gosder walk and use Reiff at RT for one year then switch him to LT. Then in 2014 we'll need a new RT though.
I'd snap Paul Kruger up in a flash. He had a productive year with 9 sacks, a FF and a pick, plus he had 6 pass defenses. That's with Suggs and Lewis missing good chunks of the season. He's only 4 years in to the league, and at 270 lbs, he can hold his own against the run.
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Old 01-18-2013, 12:00 PM    (permalink
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Once again I think we lose KVB and his 10.7 million number.
I feel we lose Burleson and his 6.5 million number.
Corey Williams will move on because we can't pay him.
Houston is going to want crazy money and i don't think we'll overpay.
This is Delmas second contract and he will be looking for bank and I feel he is injured too often to give him bank.
Avril will want ten million plus.
Flush the toilet and drop all these turds or keep them. We are already capped out. We might be able to restructure Burleson and KVB but how much can we save? Enough to keep one of the above players either Houston or Avril. And, maybe we could squeeze in Delmas...but getting FA to sign here after a 4-12 season for no mobey will be impossible. So I see no fix there.
If KVB and Avril go we need to draft a starting quality DE right off the top. If Houston is not retained, we will need a top flight corner. That's just common sense. Second round safety makes just as much sense whether we re-sign Delmas or not (even more if we do not).
Lions have 49 under contract are 3.1 million over right now.

http://www.freep.com/article/20130117/SPORTS01/130114053/detroit-lions-salary-cap-breakdown?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Detroit%20Lions

Cutting KVB saves 5 million saved
Burleson hinted at pay cut. 2-3 million
Thomas/Robiskie/Tyrell Johsnon 2.9 million saved
Peterman 2.6 million saved
Raiola cut 4 million or take a pay cut 3 millio. He has to know he can't start anywhere else.
Stafford extension saves 4-7 million

You get Houston and Delmas back with that money, get a DE like Idonije(he had a 1 year 2.5 million contract last year), get a speedster like Devery Henderson and draft a stud DE followed by a CB/safety in Round 2. Round 3 get a Center or Guard and you have Bill Nagy for the other spot guard/center spot.

I like Kruger too plus he's younger than Idonije so probably more expensive though.

Backus cut or retires saves 4 million. Either cut Backus and re-sign Gosder with that money or roll with Reiff/Backus in 2013. Either way the Lions should be fine at tackle.
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Old 01-18-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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I'd snap Paul Kruger up in a flash. He had a productive year with 9 sacks, a FF and a pick, plus he had 6 pass defenses. That's with Suggs and Lewis missing good chunks of the season. He's only 4 years in to the league, and at 270 lbs, he can hold his own against the run.
Kruger has looked very good in the playoffs as well. I'd definitley take him and I wouldn't mind getting someone coming from that Baltimore defense.

I definitely think KVB and Corey Williams are gone. A mid-late round pick I would love to see us take a look at is Will Cambell from Michigan. They guy has the tools to be a beast at DT but Michigan flip flopped his positions throughout his college career and he has yet to really grasp everything at the position. 5 star prospect coming out of Cass Tech. With his physical tools and playing with Suh and Fairley everyday I think he could develop into a force.
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Old 01-18-2013, 02:55 PM    (permalink
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Lions have 49 under contract are 3.1 million over right now.

http://www.freep.com/article/20130117/SPORTS01/130114053/detroit-lions-salary-cap-breakdown?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Detroit%20Lions

Cutting KVB saves 5 million saved
Burleson hinted at pay cut. 2-3 million
Thomas/Robiskie/Tyrell Johsnon 2.9 million saved
Peterman 2.6 million saved
Raiola cut 4 million or take a pay cut 3 millio. He has to know he can't start anywhere else.
Stafford extension saves 4-7 million

You get Houston and Delmas back with that money, get a DE like Idonije(he had a 1 year 2.5 million contract last year), get a speedster like Devery Henderson and draft a stud DE followed by a CB/safety in Round 2. Round 3 get a Center or Guard and you have Bill Nagy for the other spot guard/center spot.

I like Kruger too plus he's younger than Idonije so probably more expensive though.

Backus cut or retires saves 4 million. Either cut Backus and re-sign Gosder with that money or roll with Reiff/Backus in 2013. Either way the Lions should be fine at tackle.
I doubt all these savings are possible. You force Backus and Raiola into retirement and the draft becomes an OL grab bag with no help for the defense. Stafford's health will always take priority.
We may not love Backus and Raiola but replacing them won't be as easy as you make out. It may look OK on paper but the continuity and leadership of the OL will be shattered.
Why would Stafford take a pay cut?
Kruger likely franchised or resigned.
Cutting player still means you have to sign somebody to fill the roster so the savings become minimal.
Teams also keep a reserve in case of mid season injuries which always happen.

I'm not trying to be just critical but juggling cap #'s is tough and as I pointed out, signing other team's FA's puts you in a bidding war which often is very expensive compared to resigning your own FA's even if you have questions about their abilities.
I can see cutting KVB, Delmas(way too injury prone, will never stay on the field for a whole season) and Williams. Maybe you can get Burleson to take a pay cut but I doubt you can get much out of Raiola or Backus unless one calls it quits.
If Backus goes and Reid and Gosger are the starting OT's then we may retain Peterman to play OG or sign another FA for more than Peterman 2.6 million.

Mayhew is between a rock and a hard place should both Raiola and Backus hang up their cleats. As I mentioned, it would save money but the draft would then focus on the OL and FA to fill those spots, remembering that if Reid goes to LT, and Peterman is dumped, then an OG must be found as well as an OC.
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Old 01-18-2013, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I doubt all these savings are possible. You force Backus and Raiola into retirement and the draft becomes an OL grab bag with no help for the defense. Stafford's health will always take priority.
We may not love Backus and Raiola but replacing them won't be as easy as you make out. It may look OK on paper but the continuity and leadership of the OL will be shattered.
Why would Stafford take a pay cut?
Kruger likely franchised or resigned.
Cutting player still means you have to sign somebody to fill the roster so the savings become minimal.
Teams also keep a reserve in case of mid season injuries which always happen.

I'm not trying to be just critical but juggling cap #'s is tough and as I pointed out, signing other team's FA's puts you in a bidding war which often is very expensive compared to resigning your own FA's even if you have questions about their abilities.
I can see cutting KVB, Delmas(way too injury prone, will never stay on the field for a whole season) and Williams. Maybe you can get Burleson to take a pay cut but I doubt you can get much out of Raiola or Backus unless one calls it quits.
If Backus goes and Reid and Gosger are the starting OT's then we may retain Peterman to play OG or sign another FA for more than Peterman 2.6 million.

Mayhew is between a rock and a hard place should both Raiola and Backus hang up their cleats. As I mentioned, it would save money but the draft would then focus on the OL and FA to fill those spots, remembering that if Reid goes to LT, and Peterman is dumped, then an OG must be found as well as an OC.
Backus only gone if they decide to use that money on Gosder. Long term it's a good decision as you have Reiff and Gosder locked up then. No grab bag needed for a tackle. Jason Fox restricted tender 1.3 million and Hilliard they can bring back cheap as the backups. I see no problems letting Backus go if you believe in Reiff and Gosder. Heck Backus might just retire anyway.

Center, Raiola is good in pass pro most of the time but his run blocking sucks. Lions fans have been clamoring to get rid of him for years. It's a tough cut we might have to make. Personally, I'd rather have Delmas and Houston on the roster over Raiola. Plus they have Bill Nagy(starter for the Cowboys picked up due to injury) and the draft to replace him. And as for leadership Rob Sims should be the leader. He's the best lineman. Gosder has been here for awhile and Reiff is a good character guy. Nagy will want to prove his worth along with a rookie. Plus Stafford should be a leader.

Peterman took a nose dive in 2012 in pass protection and is way too inconsistent in run blocking. He gave up a ton more hurries and a few more sacks in 2012 and Mayhew hinted at the interior pressure problem causing different Stafford mechanics in his exit interview. Peterman's line coach is now gone in Yarno. Yarno was his line coach in college. It will be tough replacing both Raiola and Peterman but possible on the cheap with Nagy and a 3rd round draft pick for the other. It's a tough call but to keep Delmas and Houston it may be needed. This staff loves Delmas but his knees need to hold. That may lower his price. At the very least they should draft a safety in Round 2 to pair with Delmas best case or to play well if Delmas does get hurt again. Delmas playing the last 3 games with no limitations was a good sign at least.

Stafford is not a pay cut. It's an extension of his contact. He'll get paid big bucks just like Calvin did but Calvin's cap number dropped 10 million in 2012 compared to the number it was to start free agency. It's basically the old CBA screwing the Lions but extension fixes it. An extension for Stafford is a must this offseason. Mayhew has already been talking about it in his end of season press conference. Need to save 4-7 million from that which is possible even at 5 years 100 million like Brees got (depends how you structure it). Stafford still gets paid but in the form of a bonus allocated over 5 years, that's where the savings come in.

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Old 01-18-2013, 03:09 PM    (permalink
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I think Backus has one more year left in him. Just lest Gosder walk and put Reiff at RT. There is a bit of savings there.
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Old 01-18-2013, 03:37 PM    (permalink
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I think Backus has one more year left in him. Just lest Gosder walk and put Reiff at RT. There is a bit of savings there.
Actually that wouldn't be savings unless Gosder's cap number on his new hypothetical deal was more than what Backus cap number is now. And since Lewand can basically structure the contract how he wants (backload, front load, bonuses etc), Gosder's cap number would probably be less or the same as what Backus' cap number is now.

Gosder isn't counting right now towards the 3.1 million over. He counts zero as an unrestricted free agent.

It's definitely an option though and not a bad one to have Backus/Reiff in 2013. It's just that it's probably a one year option due to Backus age and expiring contract after 2013. Cutting Backus and using the money to re-sign Gosder, is a more of a long term option with Reiff and Gosder as your locked up tackles.

For 2013, I think Backus at LT and Reiff at RT would be the best short term combo though over Reiff at LT and Gosder at RT. But long term could be a good combo.
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Old 01-18-2013, 04:08 PM    (permalink
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Its going to be tough to squeeze everyone in, but we can probably figure it out. I'm guessing we will lose at least one guy we'd like to keep. Either Houston,Delmas or Gosdar. Any of them coudl get an offer we can't match.
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Old 01-18-2013, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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Just give me Houston. I wouldn't mind Delmas back for an easily cut-able contract because I don't believe teams would be willing to invest in him, and hopefully his vet deduction would help ease the cap number. I would like Durant or Levy back too, but I'm willing to roll the dice. Heck, Bobby Carpenter actually looked alright a couple years ago. Plus Schwartz started out as a linebacker coach so you'd think that we'd develop Travis Lewis and the rest.
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Old 01-19-2013, 08:59 AM    (permalink
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I see serious regression here next year because we cannot retain these players and I am sorry but Mayhew has been less than adept at roster building. He has strapped us by not trading down and he has acquired players like Vandenbosch 10.7 next year and Burleson 6.5 million next year who are very highly overpaid.

Houston will be trying to get at least 8 million per and Avril will be trying for 12.5 million at least. We cannot afford to bring either back and Delmas and Levy and Durant and Cherilous. Corey Williams. Nope.

Look closely, your corners next year will be Jonte Green and Chris Greenwood or Dee Milliner and whoever Mayhew brings in off the street.

Your OT's will be whoever we have signed and Reiff. Backus is already figured in. If he is gone then Cherlous gets his numbers. No relief there.

DE 's will be whoever we draft, Willie Young and LoJack. We will not be able to pay KVB and/or Avril.
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Old 01-19-2013, 09:13 AM    (permalink
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Idealized mocks where teams don't reach for people they like and our players within current value range fall to us.

1. Bjeorn DE
2. Jones C/G/T
3. Tony Jefferson S
4(compsensatory-Eric Wright). Kenjon Barner RB (or Devin Taylor DE)
5. Marquise Goodwin WR/RS (Theo Riddick RB/WR)
6. Johnny Adams CB- gets too much crap for the PI call. he played well.
7. Shamarko Thomas S
7(comps-filler) Joseph Fauria TE

Barner probably should go a round or two higher depending on combine, so that's why I put Taylor there. If Barner is gone, then Riddick makes sense due to his ability to essentially be a great 3rd down RB and potential McCluster type. Later picks fall due to position depth, but history says that there should be some better prospects out there. I know we don't need another young corner, but I like Adams and we should lose some people to injury or FA.

or...

1. Milliner CB- will be there
2. Margus Hunt DE- beast, but should be there with position depth
3. Travis Frederick C/G -Probably late 2nd, but could be there if GB doesn't
4(comp). Gerald Hodges LB- could go 3rd, but decent spot for a non-top lb
5. Theo Riddick RB- WR convert with good hands for position
6. Rodney Smith WR- tall with decent speed but wimpy
7. William Campbell DT
7(comp). Tremayne Scott DE

Maybe Shamarko over Rodney Smith, but I was kinda floating names and didn't want a copy-paste from the top.
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Old 01-19-2013, 09:26 AM    (permalink
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DEs with Weird Names but Beast Mode Mock

1. Bjeorn DE
2. Margus DE
3. Jefferson S
4. Hodges LB
5. Riddick RB/WR
6. Adams CB
7. Shamarko S
7. Campbell DT

2 starting DEs with elite potential. Safety help, linebacker U help, and key depth.

come on...Bjeorn Ndamukong and Margus? Best named dline ever!
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Old 01-19-2013, 11:24 AM    (permalink
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That'd be a pretty sick draft
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Old 01-19-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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DEs with Weird Names but Beast Mode Mock

1. Bjeorn DE
2. Margus DE
3. Jefferson S
4. Hodges LB
5. Riddick RB/WR
6. Adams CB
7. Shamarko S
7. Campbell DT

2 starting DEs with elite potential. Safety help, linebacker U help, and key depth.

come on...Bjeorn Ndamukong and Margus? Best named dline ever!
We don't have a 4th we used it for Tahir Whitehead. Doubt we get that high a comp pick for Wright when we picked up Lacey and Drayton Florence
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