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Old 12-02-2012, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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I think if you're Kansas City, which most of this conversation centers around, you trade back into the middle to late first round and get as good a QB as you would earlier. If you take Smith or anyone else at the top of the draft you're setting yourself up to be out of a job in two years.
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
I think if you're Kansas City, which most of this conversation centers around, you trade back into the middle to late first round and get as good a QB as you would earlier. If you take Smith or anyone else at the top of the draft you're setting yourself up to be out of a job in two years.
Can you please explain this because I really don't understand the thinking here. This team is major flaw and the reason they're the worst team in the NFL is because of the *brutal* QB play they've gotten this year. How would getting an inferior player at by far the most important position on the team be better for anybody in KC?
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Old 12-02-2012, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Can you please explain this because I really don't understand the thinking here. This team is major flaw and the reason they're the worst team in the NFL is because of the *brutal* QB play they've gotten this year. How would getting an inferior player at by far the most important position on the team be better for anybody in KC?
I think the entire point behind that post was that Babylon didn't see a dropoff between quarterbacks at the top of the first round and in the middle of the first round. Also, let's be honest, the Chiefs are a better team on paper than in reality. They have only two legitimate offensive weapons: Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles; Bowe is set to become a free agent at the end of the season and may not be back. Branden Albert has an expiring deal and would leave a gaping hole at left tackle if he is not re-signed to a long-term extension. No one on their defensive line has made an impact; Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey will likely become free agents at the end of the season. Roster depth is decidedly lacking. A quarterback is easily the biggest need, but any team with one or two wins at the end of the year has more holes than that.
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Old 12-02-2012, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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No team has only one need.

And Babylon is wrong. Most of the people who believe this stuff are wrong. They are flat wrong.
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Old 12-02-2012, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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I think the entire point behind that post was that Babylon didn't see a dropoff between quarterbacks at the top of the first round and in the middle of the first round. Also, let's be honest, the Chiefs are a better team on paper than in reality. They have only two legitimate offensive weapons: Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles; Bowe is set to become a free agent at the end of the season and may not be back. Branden Albert has an expiring deal and would leave a gaping hole at left tackle if he is not re-signed to a long-term extension. No one on their defensive line has made an impact; Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey will likely become free agents at the end of the season. Roster depth is decidedly lacking. A quarterback is easily the biggest need, but any team with one or two wins at the end of the year has more holes than that.
I'll take KC's roster depth over most team's that have held the #1 pick in recent years. Them being a legit QB away from being relevant holds truer to them than to a lot of teams that hold the top pick. I'd still be opposed to it but it would be a little bit different if there was a slam dunk player at another 'money position' where they had a hole, but there isn't.
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Old 12-02-2012, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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No team has only one need.

And Babylon is wrong. Most of the people who believe this stuff are wrong. They are flat wrong.
I may be wrong but i doubt it. Don't force the draft. If there isn't someone with a grade high enough to be drafted at the top then just don't do it. Having said that i think there will be someone who will surprise. Just not sure who that someone will be.
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Old 12-12-2012, 08:40 PM    (permalink
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Geno Smith, Welcome to KC
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Old 01-27-2013, 07:54 PM    (permalink
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Notes on passing plays.

Geno Smith vs Baylor





Geno Smith vs. Texas


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Old 01-27-2013, 08:00 PM    (permalink
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Wow, did you just type that up? I don't know whether to give you props or to refer you to farmersonly.com.....
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Old 01-27-2013, 08:19 PM    (permalink
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I took notes on individual games so I could refer specifically to some tendencies, because he's turning into one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft. It didn't really take that long. I write a lot.

Geno's got a great arm. He throws some really terrific deep passes. But the thing is, it's usually his plan the whole time. WVU kept defenses off-balance last year by having a pretty good run game and a variety of short passes that made defenses guess where the ball would be going, but the play was generally decided before the snap. Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey were probably the best wideout combo in college football last year, so there were a lot of situations where Geno just waited until the guy he wanted to throw to got open.

That's what makes it somewhat difficult to knock Geno for not going through progressions very often - often his first read is a good read. He also consistently had good protection. WVU's line was giving him a lot of time to wait in the pocket before making his throw. But his pocket presense is mediocre at best. He gets hit from his blindside more often than he should, and multiple times I've seen him sacked when he could have escaped - it doesn't look to me like he senses pressure very well.

To me, Geno Smith is a good athlete with a good build and throws some really nice passes. But I don't see him as an intuitive player. He executed his offense well, and I take no points from him just for running a quick-hitting offense where he wasn't really asked to make a lot of reads. However, one of the most important traits an NFL quarterback needs to have is the ability to react to defenses mid-play, and that's something you see precious little of when you're watching Geno Smith. He doesn't look nervous at all in the pocket, and that's something I want to give him a lot of credit for. By no means is this a Blaine Gabbert situation. But when the play Geno wants isn't there, it's pretty rare for him to make a big play where you think, "Wow, that was all Geno there." WVU, as a team, has had those moments offensively, but they're not usually Geno moments. I really want to emphasize that I'm not saying "Geno sucks," but that his receivers look like they'll be legitimate NFL weapons, and his line has generally played pretty well for him. If he's a legitimate second-round type prospect (someone I think has the tools but hasn't shown quite enough for me to want to take him as my team's first pick), having two players who pretty reasonably compare to Antonio Brown and Percy Harvin can make you look like first-rounder, especially if your best trait is airing it out.

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Old 01-27-2013, 08:39 PM    (permalink
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I took notes on individual games so I could refer specifically to some tendencies, because he's turning into one of the more polarizing prospects in this draft. It didn't really take that long. I write a lot.

Geno's got a great arm. He throws some really terrific deep passes. But the thing is, it's usually his plan the whole time. WVU kept defenses off-balance last year by having a pretty good run game and a variety of short passes that made defenses guess where the ball would be going, but the play was generally decided before the snap. Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey were probably the best wideout combo in college football last year, so there were a lot of situations where Geno just waited until the guy he wanted to throw to got open.

That's what makes it somewhat difficult to knock Geno for not going through progressions very often - often his first read is a good read. He also consistently had good protection. WVU's line was giving him a lot of time to wait in the pocket before making his throw. But his pocket presense is mediocre at best. He gets hit from his blindside more often than he should, and multiple times I've seen him sacked when he could have escaped - it doesn't look to me like he senses pressure very well.

To me, Geno Smith is a good athlete with a good build and throws some really nice passes. But I don't see him as an intuitive player. He executed his offense well, and I take no points from him just for running a quick-hitting offense where he wasn't really asked to make a lot of reads. However, one of the most important traits an NFL quarterback needs to have is the ability to react to defenses mid-play, and that's something you see precious little of when you're watching Geno Smith. He doesn't look nervous at all in the pocket, and that's something I want to give him a lot of credit for. By no means is this a Blaine Gabbert situation. But when the play Geno wants isn't there, it's pretty rare for him to make a big play where you think, "Wow, that was all Geno there." WVU, as a team, has had those moments offensively, but they're not usually Geno moments. I really want to emphasize that I'm not saying "Geno sucks," but that his receivers look like they'll be legitimate NFL weapons, and his line has generally played pretty well for him. If he's a legitimate second-round type prospect (someone I think has the tools but hasn't shown quite enough for me to want to take him as my team's first pick), having two players who pretty reasonably compare to Antonio Brown and Percy Harvin can make you look like first-rounder, especially if your best trait is airing it out.

did you watch all our games? our line was not good, only our center madesen was

and our running game was awful after the texas game; our big back alston was out after that and we struggled without him

most wvu fans will tell you our line was not good...at all
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Old 01-27-2013, 08:45 PM    (permalink
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did you watch all our games? our line was not good, only our center madesen was

and our running game was awful after the texas game; our big back alston was out after that and we struggled without him

most wvu fans will tell you our line was not good...at all
I did not. I guess I didn't mean that to be a blanket statement. Geno looked pretty clean against Baylor the whole game, and then against Texas more pressure got to him but it wasn't like it was constantly in his face. In most of the games I've seen, I haven't seen the line as being a huge liability.
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Old 01-27-2013, 09:41 PM    (permalink
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I did not. I guess I didn't mean that to be a blanket statement. Geno looked pretty clean against Baylor the whole game, and then against Texas more pressure got to him but it wasn't like it was constantly in his face. In most of the games I've seen, I haven't seen the line as being a huge liability.
it was bad after the texas game

our fb was hurt and alston our big back was also hurt; they cleaned up a lot of the missed blocks

and we only ran really well against texas, mainly bc they were pretty bad against the run
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Old 01-27-2013, 10:18 PM    (permalink
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it was bad after the texas game

our fb was hurt and alston our big back was also hurt; they cleaned up a lot of the missed blocks

and we only ran really well against texas, mainly bc they were pretty bad against the run
It did also seem like West Virginia looked better earlier in the season than later, but I don't follow them closely enough to know who was injured, etc.
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Old 01-27-2013, 11:43 PM    (permalink
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I think if you're Kansas City, which most of this conversation centers around, you trade back into the middle to late first round and get as good a QB as you would earlier. If you take Smith or anyone else at the top of the draft you're setting yourself up to be out of a job in two years.
Here is the problem with that style of thinking. To trade down you need someone to trade down with. The O-Line is very deep this year so is the D-Line and CB positions no other position is worth trading up for except QB which as we said isn't top heavy So who exactly is going to be worth the cost in draft/player capital and in actual cap space. I'm willing to bet that the Chiefs get no offers for #1 overall unless Geno Smith just wows at the combine and pro day exercises but at this point I doubt Smith even throws at the combine.
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Old 01-27-2013, 11:55 PM    (permalink
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I can't wait for Geno Smith to arrive in the NFL. I think he'll have a chance to be special. Especially if Reid works with him in Kansas City.
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Old 01-28-2013, 12:35 AM    (permalink
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Here is the problem with that style of thinking. To trade down you need someone to trade down with. The O-Line is very deep this year so is the D-Line and CB positions no other position is worth trading up for except QB which as we said isn't top heavy So who exactly is going to be worth the cost in draft/player capital and in actual cap space. I'm willing to bet that the Chiefs get no offers for #1 overall unless Geno Smith just wows at the combine and pro day exercises but at this point I doubt Smith even throws at the combine.
And even if a QB did surprise at the combine and vault himself up to the top of the draft, the Chiefs would just take him.

I seriously doubt we're moving back at all. We're sticking at #1 and picking someone.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:18 AM    (permalink
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Part of the reason I looked more closely is I felt like I'd been pretty critical in some posts and wanted to make sure I was seeing it right. And I'll say this - when I was watching really critically, his athleticism and arm did stand out. I didn't take notes on very game I watched, so I watched more than two, but throughout you see a legitimate NFL arm. I just have reservations about how he'll transition to having to respond to defenses the way an NFL offense will require him to, and also when he doesn't have the luxury of wide receivers who are above the level of their competition.

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Old 01-28-2013, 01:20 AM    (permalink
farfromforgotten
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I seriously doubt we're moving back at all. We're sticking at #1 and picking someone.
I agree, and this got me thinking... how many times has the #1 overall draft pick been traded in NFL history?

I know the Chargers traded it to the Falcons when they selected Vick and a couple of times come to mind when a player was selected by the original #1 draft pick team but was then later traded (Elway and Eli). Is that it? Not a very common occurrence.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:39 AM    (permalink
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2nd round pick, just like Barkely, Glennon, Wilson, and Jones

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Old 01-28-2013, 08:06 AM    (permalink
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I agree, and this got me thinking... how many times has the #1 overall draft pick been traded in NFL history?

I know the Chargers traded it to the Falcons when they selected Vick and a couple of times come to mind when a player was selected by the original #1 draft pick team but was then later traded (Elway and Eli). Is that it? Not a very common occurrence.
The Jets did it in the '97 draft which was oddly a similar draft to this one with the value players were mostly on the O and D lines. When Peyton Manning went back to school they swapped picks with St. Louis who took Orlando Pace. Jets took James Farrior. The backstory was that Parcells had just become the Jets coach and they owed New England compensatory picks for hiring him. So it became neccessary to recoup those picks and save some money at the top. It worked out pretty well for both teams. Jets were able to quickly rebuild and became a pretty good team immediately (almost made the playoffs in 97 with Glenn Foley at QB).

This year with Fisher's stock on the rise I think Reid could maybe convince Arizona to jump from #7 if they're worried both Fisher and Joeckel will be off the board. In that scenario there's a very good chance all of the QB's are still in play especially since Glennon's and Wilson's stocks have cooled. Ultimately the Chiefs have to come away with a QB, but it's important to maximize the value of that top pick if possible.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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I think if you're Kansas City, which most of this conversation centers around, you trade back into the middle to late first round and get as good a QB as you would earlier. If you take Smith or anyone else at the top of the draft you're setting yourself up to be out of a job in two years.
Nah, not in this case. The Chefs roster is not as bad as the typical team picking #1 overall. They need better QB play and Smith can give it to them. Smith isn't as good as the QBs who came out last year, but he is light years ahead of every other QB in this year's draft.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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Geno Smith and Andy Reid will be golden in KC. Reid will mold that offense around what Geno can do well right now, run the ball with Charles and score points.
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Old 01-28-2013, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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I think if you're Kansas City, which most of this conversation centers around, you trade back into the middle to late first round and get as good a QB as you would earlier. If you take Smith or anyone else at the top of the draft you're setting yourself up to be out of a job in two years.
You make a solid point, GM's will always take into consideration just how much failure of a pick will impact their jobs especially when there are huge doubts about a prospect and you know you are reaching to fill a need.
Past history shows that Philly under Reid was never a team that reached, so it remains quite open whether or not Reid will reach for Smith who is clearly the top QB in this year's draft but likely only a 13-18 ranked prospect.
I see zero opportunity for KC to find a trading partner unless they severely discount the #1 overall pick.
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Old 01-28-2013, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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Geno Smith and Andy Reid will be golden in KC. Reid will mold that offense around what Geno can do well right now, run the ball with Charles and score points.
Unfortunately, I agree. And I am sure Reid considered this when he chose the job.
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