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Old 01-24-2013, 10:59 AM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
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Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
This is a significantly weaker class at the top there aren't many blue chip prospects so I don't think warmack going 10th to the titans is out of the question. Top 5 is completely out of the question though.
I think this is the key, the top end of this year's draft lacks elite prospects which could open the door for Warmack to at least go top 10. This guy was totally dominating at the college level and has just about everything you look for in a pro OG, according to NFL.com, he was the highest rated prospect at the start of the season slightly ahead of Joeckel and certainly did nothing to cause him to fall. He is blue chip all the way.
When I look at the top end of the draft, I'm not seeing a whole lot of elite talents, so if I'm a GM, I think I definitely give him consideration even in the top 5.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
I don't think he'll go top 5, maybe 7 since Arizona is OL desperate and he's a better prospect than Fisher. I don't think the Titans pass at 10.

I think people have it wrong in one way though. OGs are becoming more valuable, not less.
While true "football wise", until the NFL starts paying them top dollar, their "draft value" won't catch up. ie. Franchise tag for Guards is still on the lower end of the spectrum.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I think this is the key, the top end of this year's draft lacks elite prospects which could open the door for Warmack to at least go top 10. This guy was totally dominating at the college level and has just about everything you look for in a pro OG, according to NFL.com, he was the highest rated prospect at the start of the season slightly ahead of Joeckel and certainly did nothing to cause him to fall. He is blue chip all the way.
When I look at the top end of the draft, I'm not seeing a whole lot of elite talents, so if I'm a GM, I think I definitely give him consideration even in the top 5.
So you've mentioned now the potential for Fisher and Warmack in the top 5. You have to find a buyer when you're selling a stock so just who would be taking these two in the first 5 picks. Assuming here that Joeckel goes either 1st or 4th.
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Old 01-24-2013, 02:42 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
While true "football wise", until the NFL starts paying them top dollar, their "draft value" won't catch up. ie. Franchise tag for Guards is still on the lower end of the spectrum.
There is no OG franchise number, they get paid what OTs get paid with the tag.

There are multiple OGs that make over 7 million a season right now which is not LT money but is more or the same as everyone else.
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:19 PM    (permalink
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I don't think he even goes top 10, most people have bigger needs than Guard in the first rounds and although he's a great prospect, I just can't see it.

The Jets and Titans are both possibilities, but I think he'll end up somewhere between 11-19
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:25 PM    (permalink
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i could make this post ripping on the iupati being the top guard easily but thats just too wrong to get into.

I would say that warmack has as good a case as any guard to go top10. also worth mentioning that guards are becoming more important
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:27 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by JohnCandy View Post
There is no OG franchise number, they get paid what OTs get paid with the tag.

There are multiple OGs that make over 7 million a season right now which is not LT money but is more or the same as everyone else.
You're right. I thought there was a separate level for Guard, but I guess not. The point still remains that Guards still get paid less.

Here are the top 10 base salaries for Guards in 2012.

1. Davin Joseph at $9,500,000
2. Carl Nicks at $6,500,000
3. Chris Snee at $5,200,000
4. Chris Kuper at $3,500,000
5. Richie Incognito at $3,300,000
6. Harvey Dahl at $3,000,000
7. Charlie Johnson at $2,950,000
8. Uche Nwaneri at $2,775,000
9. Chris Spencer at $2,750,000
10. Brandon Moore at $2,750,000

Now as a comparative example, here are the top 10 base salaries for Defensive End in 2012.

1. Dwight Freeney at $14,035,000
2. Elvis Dumervil at $14,000,000
3. Jared Allen at $11,619,850
4. Tamba Hali at $11,250,000
5. Cliff Avril at $10,605,000
6. Chris Long at $10,310,000
7. Julius Peppers at $8,900,000
8. Kamerion Wimbley at $6,500,000
9. Glenn Dorsey at $6,431,000
10. Chris Canty at $6,000,000

The difference is significant. That's why it more valuable to draft DE in Round 1 versus OG. It's not about teams being "cheap" as descendency thought I was saying. It's about using your resources to the best of your ability. You want to use the draft to keep salaries down while still fielding a talented squad.
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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i like him a lot but hes just gaining steam that will end up not mattering, hes not going top 5. If he came out last year decastro would still be the #1 guard

he should go around 17, steelers could have a line of mike adams, chance warmack, maurkice pouncey, david decastro, and marcus gilbert....thats a sexual lineup...id argue the chance of 2 hall of famers coming out of a line like that....potentially in the company of roaf, shields, waters down the road a bit.

they ignored oline for too long, they still have a massive hole at LG...i would love them to invest one more high pick on a lineman
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Old 01-24-2013, 03:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
While true "football wise", until the NFL starts paying them top dollar, their "draft value" won't catch up. ie. Franchise tag for Guards is still on the lower end of the spectrum.
True but they seem to be going up with guys like Nicks,Evans,Mankins and others getting big dollars lately. I'm not saying they are there with tackles, but that doesn't mean you need to take a mediocre tackle over a stud G. Plus with the new CBA, the draft is a good chance to get them cheaper than on the market.
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:46 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by D-Unit View Post
You're right. I thought there was a separate level for Guard, but I guess not. The point still remains that Guards still get paid less.

Here are the top 10 base salaries for Guards in 2012.

1. Davin Joseph at $9,500,000
2. Carl Nicks at $6,500,000
3. Chris Snee at $5,200,000
4. Chris Kuper at $3,500,000
5. Richie Incognito at $3,300,000
6. Harvey Dahl at $3,000,000
7. Charlie Johnson at $2,950,000
8. Uche Nwaneri at $2,775,000
9. Chris Spencer at $2,750,000
10. Brandon Moore at $2,750,000

Now as a comparative example, here are the top 10 base salaries for Defensive End in 2012.

1. Dwight Freeney at $14,035,000
2. Elvis Dumervil at $14,000,000
3. Jared Allen at $11,619,850
4. Tamba Hali at $11,250,000
5. Cliff Avril at $10,605,000
6. Chris Long at $10,310,000
7. Julius Peppers at $8,900,000
8. Kamerion Wimbley at $6,500,000
9. Glenn Dorsey at $6,431,000
10. Chris Canty at $6,000,000

The difference is significant. That's why it more valuable to draft DE in Round 1 versus OG. It's not about teams being "cheap" as descendency thought I was saying. It's about using your resources to the best of your ability. You want to use the draft to keep salaries down while still fielding a talented squad.
But there value has gone up as we are seeing more interior OLmen go in the 1st round of the draft and if you compared those salaries to OGs from 10 years ago I bet they are closer to DEs now then they were then.

The position has become more important as teams are throwing the ball more and more teams are putting pass rushers inside and blitzing.

OG will never be as important as QB, LT, DE, WR, CB
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:48 PM    (permalink
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i like him a lot but hes just gaining steam that will end up not mattering, hes not going top 5. If he came out last year decastro would still be the #1 guard

he should go around 17, steelers could have a line of mike adams, chance warmack, maurkice pouncey, david decastro, and marcus gilbert....thats a sexual lineup...id argue the chance of 2 hall of famers coming out of a line like that....potentially in the company of roaf, shields, waters down the road a bit.

they ignored oline for too long, they still have a massive hole at LG...i would love them to invest one more high pick on a lineman
5 offensive linemen in the first two rounds in 4 years seems a bit like overkill on paper, but the thought of them all working out is very alluring. Interior offensive line of three 1st rounders, I don't think that's every happened.

But given the lack of depth the line might have (releasing Colon, and letting Starks and Foster walk), I guess it isn't entirely out of the question.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:50 PM    (permalink
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But there value has gone up as we are seeing more interior OLmen go in the 1st round of the draft and if you compared those salaries to OGs from 10 years ago I bet they are closer to DEs now then they were then.

The position has become more important as teams are throwing the ball more and more teams are putting pass rushers inside and blitzing.

OG will never be as important as QB, LT, DE, WR, CB
Might be catching up, but the factor still remains today.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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No way - because he's a Guard.
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Old 01-26-2013, 11:18 AM    (permalink
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[quote=K Train;3255615]i like him a lot but hes just gaining steam that will end up not mattering, hes not going top 5. If he came out last year decastro would still be the #1 guard

Sorry but Warmack is rated way ahead of DeCastro. The NFL pre season ranking found on NFL.com lists Warmack as the top rated prospect in this year's draft even ahead of Joeckel.

Warmack is probably the best OG prospect of the last decade at least, he might get out of the top 5, but top 10 is a strong possibility. He will be every team not playing a ZBS, top ranked, BPA. His position will make team's think twice, no doubt about it, however his ranking suggest a HOF ceiling with only Joeckel close to that rating. No other prospects in this year's draft, carry close to that potential. He dominates every player he faces in the SEC both as a run blocker and a pass blocker and each GM drafting will have to ask himself, do I take a potential HOFer or do I draft another very good player who has only a small chance of being a HOFer.

I completely admit that if the top end of this year's draft was blue chip then Warmack would stand little chance of going that high, but outside of Joeckel and perhaps Fisher, there is nobody ranked as elite in this year's draft, so what type of GM is everybody, BPA or fill a position of need with a very good player.
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Old 02-02-2013, 10:46 AM    (permalink
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Guard in top 5 just does not happen...
Yes it does

The Cardinals drafted Leonard Davis a guard #2 overall back in 2001- He went to 3 pro bowls and still is playing-

Chance Warmack is not a sexy pick- but he'll give a team 10 years of solid plays and a handful of pro bowls- he's that good- 3rd and 1? Run behind him

I'm not so sure why everybody blows off the guard position as not very important- It's those guys that gotta take on the top DT's that go in the top 3 picks every year- You gotta keep your QB upright, open holes for your RB- Chance Warmack does both of those very well- He's a very safe pick- A player that will pay immediate and long term dividends -5-7 years down the road- looking back at this draft- Warmack will one of maybe 3 guys in the first rd still playing at a high level- Theres a 25% success rate in the 1st rd- the odds arent good- take the safe pick- and this year, Warmack is not only the safe pick- but regarded as one of the top prospects in the draft- it don't get any safer than drafting him

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Old 02-02-2013, 11:08 AM    (permalink
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Yes it does

The Cardinals drafted Leonard Davis a guard #2 overall back in 2001- He went to 3 pro bowls and still is playing-
You had to go back over a decade and revise history to find that example.

Davis was drafted to play OT. Arizona played him at guard his first three years because he wasn't that good at tackle, not because they drafted him to be a guard.
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Old 02-02-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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Leonard Davis was a college OT, drafted to be a NFL OT. He was moved to guard after struggles outside.

Iupati the best OG??? Nevermind.

IMO, Warmack's only legit shot of going in the top half of the 1st round is if the Rams selected him at #16. When the combine measurables come in this top 5-10 stuff will die down.
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Old 02-02-2013, 11:12 AM    (permalink
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You had to go back over a decade and revise history to find that example.
Not sure what that has to do with anything- dude said OG's dont happen in the top 5

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Old 02-02-2013, 11:17 AM    (permalink
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Not sure what that has to do with anything- dude said OG's dont happen in the top 5
nope but combined with the fact that it wasnt a good example makes it a pretty crappy point to make
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Old 02-02-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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Safeties were regarded as players that shouldnt be taken in the top 10 much less the top 5.. that was proven false when Safeties Eric Berry and Sean Taylor were drafted #5 overall- Eric Turner went #2 overall- All 3 of these players made the pro bowl-

Chance Warmack will be a multi pro bowl player- I'd have absoluetly no problem taking Warmack in the top 5 if I had a need at either guard positions
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Old 02-02-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
bitonti
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Originally Posted by K Train View Post
they ignored oline for too long, they still have a massive hole at LG...i would love them to invest one more high pick on a lineman
colon was pretty good until he got injured. is he not coming back?

as for Chance it's a great discussion and I tend to agree top 10 pick is too dear a price to pay for that position.
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Old 02-02-2013, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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None of the guys on NFL.com have Warmack going in the top five of their mock drafts, so I really doubt he actually goes top five come draft day.
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Old 02-03-2013, 05:58 AM    (permalink
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No chance he goes that high. Top 15 is possibly depending on if there is a great fit for him. Guards just won't be a premiere value. If you're in the top 5/10 and love him then just trade back and still snag him and get extra picks ideally.

I also don't see him as a clear better player that DeCastro. People are just down on DeCastro because he was injured all year.
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Old 02-03-2013, 08:32 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
Warmack is probably the best OG prospect of the last decade at least,
Yeah, yeah. A group of people say this about the top guard every year while the rest of us just shake our heads. People said this **** about Duke Robinson for a while.

The hyperbole on these boards is amazing.

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Old 02-03-2013, 08:42 AM    (permalink
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His floor is #18, if he is on the board and Jerry passes just because he is a guard ill throw my tv through the window.
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