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Old 02-07-2013, 08:24 AM    (permalink
gpngc
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Originally Posted by Seasonticketholder View Post
Why is this so hard? Dion Jordan over Sheldon Richardson for the Saints. We are running a 3-4. We have two 5-tech DEs and a serviceable NT. We need a pass-rushing OLB. Richardson makes ZERO sense here.
I love this one.

The good ol' 'next year starter' theory.

Every team's first round draft pick should be a player that can start next year at a position of 'need.'

Ignore the future at all other positions (upcoming free agents, potential cap casualties, aging players). And more importantly, ignore your board. Sheldon Richardson is the best player on our board? SO WHAT!? TAKE A LB IMMEDIATELY!

Houston would not have J.J. Watt right now if they subscribed to this terrible concept. There are plenty of other examples too.

And this is besides the fact that no team can ever have enough quality DL, 3-4 or not.
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Old 02-07-2013, 08:31 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
No matter how you look at it, you aren't getting enough for your picks in Fluker and Lacy. Give them those guys at 22 and with their 2nd, ok I get that. at 16 and 22? Not so much.
Unless you look at it realistically and based on what actually happens each year.

For example, when one of the February consensus board sticklers ridiculed me for having Cam Newton at No. 1 two years ago. Or last year when someone had Mark Barron in the top 10. Or Irvin late first. Or Alualu.

The acceptance of the February internet cut-n-paste big board is ridiculous. It's going to change drastically throughout the combine and pro days and more importantly as we gather information about what the NFL evaluators think about where players should and will get drafted.

Fluker is a good pick at 22 but not 16? That critique simply makes 0 sense.
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Old 02-07-2013, 08:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by farfromforgotten View Post
Definitely an interesting choice. Seeing as the last DB to go #1 overall was one Gary Glick, picked by the Steelers in the 1956 draft.

I get that you aren't high on Smith, but Nassib as the 1st QB off the board? I'd be shocked. Shocked. Is it just because the connection with the coach or is there something more? I don't see how Nassib could be ranked ahead of Smith, Barkley, Glennon, or Wilson right now... possibly Manuel too.

Rhodes is a good pick for the Niners.

edit: looking back, I see the quip about Nassib.
That's a cool stat and things need to break a certain way for it to actually happen this year: 1) Albert re-signed 2) Pass on QB/acquire QB elsewhere 3) Can't trade down.

But if those three things happen, I think it's very possible.

This is an extremely unique situation given the weak QB class, the needs of the team picking No. 1, and no true blue-chip No. 1-talent at the top of the draft. That's why I think Milliner is a possibility. He's that good. Better than Claiborne.

As for your QB stuff. I think you need to re-evaluate. Any team could have those guys ranked anywhere on their boards. They are all very flawed prospects. If you don't "see how Nassib can be ranked ahead of..." then I don't know what you're watching. Not one of them jumps out as clearly a better prospect than the other, Nassib included.

And E.J. Manuel is horrible.

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Old 02-07-2013, 08:43 AM    (permalink
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Eifert would be a ******* stud with roethlisberger, unfortunately they are crippled at WR and OLB too much to take him. Id rather they sign Walker from the 9ers.

I wouldnt be mad at eifert or ertz in the first, but Allen, Jordan, and Patterson should get picked over him at 17
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 02-07-2013, 08:54 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
08. Buffalo Bills: Ryan Nassib

This is very cliche, but I wouldn't be surprised if it really happened. Marrone and co. would downplay interest and then shock everyone on draft night. Stupider things have happened. And I would not be in favor of this pick, but I think it's possible.
Not that I would not be surprised if it happened, but I would not, I just dont see how they do it at this point with his mechanical issues, and recent senior bowl performance. More likely in my opinion based on what they have acknowledged scouting and comments from Buddy Nix; they take a reciever, linebacker or even DE (werner or moore) talent that falls to them at 8, move up from the 2nd round and take Nassib in the mid to late first round. Nix likes Wilson, at least has publically announced it and could be there target at 8 or in a move up. A lot will change, but at this point thats the way I see it, right now. With this QB class, anything can happen.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:20 AM    (permalink
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Not that I would not be surprised if it happened, but I would not, I just dont see how they do it at this point with his mechanical issues, and recent senior bowl performance. More likely in my opinion based on what they have acknowledged scouting and comments from Buddy Nix; they take a reciever, linebacker or even DE (werner or moore) talent that falls to them at 8, move up from the 2nd round and take Nassib in the mid to late first round. Nix likes Wilson, at least has publically announced it and could be there target at 8 or in a move up. A lot will change, but at this point thats the way I see it, right now. With this QB class, anything can happen.
Good stuff. Has Nix usually steered mock drafters in the right direction in the past? I didn't have Spiller two years ago or Gilmore last year. But I did know they loved Glenn last year.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:23 AM    (permalink
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bills are always a crap shoot, whitner, maybin, spiller, gilmore...who the hell would have guessed lol
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:29 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Unless you look at it realistically and based on what actually happens each year.

For example, when one of the February consensus board sticklers ridiculed me for having Cam Newton at No. 1 two years ago. Or last year when someone had Mark Barron in the top 10. Or Irvin late first. Or Alualu.

The acceptance of the February internet cut-n-paste big board is ridiculous. It's going to change drastically throughout the combine and pro days and more importantly as we gather information about what the NFL evaluators think about where players should and will get drafted.

Fluker is a good pick at 22 but not 16? That critique simply makes 0 sense.
I can live with Fluker at 16, that wasn't really my point. You're right, things will change, but I'd be shocked if it isn't Lacy dropping, not climbing. He's very average.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:30 AM    (permalink
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That's a cool stat and things need to break a certain way for it to actually happen this year: 1) Albert re-signed 2) Pass on QB/acquire QB elsewhere 3) Can't trade down.

But if those three things happen, I think it's very possible.

This is an extremely unique situation given the weak QB class, the needs of the team picking No. 1, and no true blue-chip No. 1-talent at the top of the draft. That's why I think Milliner is a possibility. He's that good. Better than Claiborne.

As for your QB stuff. I think you need to re-evaluate. Any team could have those guys ranked anywhere on their boards. They are all very flawed prospects. If you don't "see how Nassib can be ranked ahead of..." then I don't know what you're watching. Not one of them jumps out as clearly a better prospect than the other, Nassib included.

And E.J. Manuel is horrible.
He's just plain not better than Claiborne, as a prospect.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:36 AM    (permalink
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He's just plain not better than Claiborne, as a prospect.
Claiborne is faster and has better ball skills. And probably a better tackler.

Milliner has better size and is better in coverage (hips, feet, fluidity, instinctive breaks on the football). M2M or zone.

I value the coverage over the other stuff.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:55 AM    (permalink
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I still say no to Margus Hunt in the 1st. He's not 1st round material, I don't care how tall he is or how strong and instinctive he could be. The Colts have too many holes to take on a neat little project like Hunt in the 1st, and there should be much better value at other positions of need regardless of how the draft shakes out. I just think you are overvaluing a soft project player. No way the Colts take him in the 1st.
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Old 02-07-2013, 10:11 AM    (permalink
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Hunt is thisclose on so many plays. If Dontari Poe can go 12 after flashing almost nothing, someone is going to take Hunt in the first round.

A guy with that kind of size and athletic ability is not going to fall to the 2nd round. There are only so many men that big and athletic on the planet.

Some coach is going to see J.J. Watt potential in him and it's absolutely there if he can take in some coaching. He just needs to stay low. He was constantly double-teamed and still made plays.

He was a monster against TCU.

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Old 02-07-2013, 10:32 AM    (permalink
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Nassib at 8 makes me wanna barf
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None of you will be alive to see who gets picked at #3 if the Lions don't pick Suh at #2. I'll blow up the whole world.
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Old 02-07-2013, 10:43 AM    (permalink
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Hunt is thisclose on so many plays. If Dontari Poe can go 12 after flashing almost nothing, someone is going to take Hunt in the first round.

A guy with that kind of size and athletic ability is not going to fall to the 2nd round. There are only so many men that big and athletic on the planet.

Some coach is going to see J.J. Watt potential in him and it's absolutely there if he can take in some coaching. He just needs to stay low. He was constantly double-teamed and still made plays.

He was a monster against TCU.
hunt is not nearly as worthless as some make him out to be....i like him better than i liked guys of similar size like corey wootton who didnt exactly come from a football powerhouse
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"He won't be able to just use his arm power to throw defenders around at the next level!"

The hell he won't, lol.
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Old 02-07-2013, 10:50 AM    (permalink
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I love this one.

The good ol' 'next year starter' theory.

Every team's first round draft pick should be a player that can start next year at a position of 'need.'

Ignore the future at all other positions (upcoming free agents, potential cap casualties, aging players). And more importantly, ignore your board. Sheldon Richardson is the best player on our board? SO WHAT!? TAKE A LB IMMEDIATELY!

Houston would not have J.J. Watt right now if they subscribed to this terrible concept. There are plenty of other examples too.

And this is besides the fact that no team can ever have enough quality DL, 3-4 or not.
Our two 5 techniques are less than 26, and still have a few years on their rookie contracts. So no, they wont be a upcoming free agents, potential cap casualties, nor aging as if they was in their 30s.

And the JJ Watt thing right now... Who did he replace exactly to make them think he was just a luxury pick? Everyone knows they had Antonio Smith at one DE position, but could you name the other starter? Nope, because they was a 4-3 team the year before. They didn't have many 3-4 DE's on their roster, so I think JJ was a need pick who just so happened to meet the best player.

Finally, Saints have always gone BPA in the drafts. Hence the reason we traded up to get Ingram 2 years ago, because we felt he was too good to have falling.

As of now, we don't have any player that screams "10 sacks or more player"... Heck, we don't have a "8 sack or better player" right now. We haven't had a player over 8 sacks since 2009.

But what we do have is a DL that has two DEs that seem very well fit for the 3-4, and a NT who was two years ago one of the best rus stuffers in the league. Give us a pass rusher (or my fave Te'o because we dont have 2 ILBs imo) instead of a guy who won't start.
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Old 02-07-2013, 11:17 AM    (permalink
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To your point about Watt = http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...mario-williams

Mario Williams was supposed to be the other starting DE. Their biggest needs were CLEARLY at OLB and S (as usual). They took Watt and he was so good they changed their plans.

Defending my pick:

1) You need more than just starters, especially on the DL, and Richardson has the potential to be the best player on your entire defense.
2) If the board played out that way, a case could definitely be made that Richardson is the BPA, and the Saints do go BPA as you just said...

I don't really get your argument. You basically just said "Saints go BPA" then said "but we need to draft OLB regardless."

EDIT: and just to add with the Saints. That defense is so bad that it just needs an infusion of talent. Don't pigeon-hole yourself for a position. Get the most disruptive, aggressive, impact-making defensive player available. I think there's a good chance they'd settle on Richardson in this scenario.

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Old 02-07-2013, 09:15 PM    (permalink
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To your point about Watt = http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/pos...mario-williams

Mario Williams was supposed to be the other starting DE. Their biggest needs were CLEARLY at OLB and S (as usual). They took Watt and he was so good they changed their plans.

Defending my pick:

1) You need more than just starters, especially on the DL, and Richardson has the potential to be the best player on your entire defense.
2) If the board played out that way, a case could definitely be made that Richardson is the BPA, and the Saints do go BPA as you just said...

I don't really get your argument. You basically just said "Saints go BPA" then said "but we need to draft OLB regardless."

EDIT: and just to add with the Saints. That defense is so bad that it just needs an infusion of talent. Don't pigeon-hole yourself for a position. Get the most disruptive, aggressive, impact-making defensive player available. I think there's a good chance they'd settle on Richardson in this scenario.
You honestly think Mario was going to be a 3-4 DE? He was used the same way Ware is used as a OLB.

1) We need actual starters at OLB. We literally have no one. We have Chris Chamerlain (who was a Spags guy, so look for him to be released) and Martez Wilson. Thats pretty much all the OLBs we have on the roster, and one may get cut.

2) What I didn't elaborate on is we always went BPA, and look where that has gotten us...

Sed Ellis was a bust
Malcolm Jenkins was one of the worst Safeties in the NFL starter wise
Patrick Robinson was destroyed last year

But we haven't drafted a 1st round LBer since 95, and only 1 other LB in the 2nd since then.

We need someone who can pass rush from the outside, and our best chance is one of the "boom or bust" guys, as sad as it makes me. We need it badly.
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Old 02-07-2013, 09:38 PM    (permalink
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Are you guys cutting Will Smith and if not do you think he could make the transition to the 3-4? He'd have to be an OLB.


edit - and do you think resigning Casillas is possible?
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Old 02-07-2013, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by zachsaints52 View Post
You honestly think Mario was going to be a 3-4 DE? He was used the same way Ware is used as a OLB.

1) We need actual starters at OLB. We literally have no one. We have Chris Chamerlain (who was a Spags guy, so look for him to be released) and Martez Wilson. Thats pretty much all the OLBs we have on the roster, and one may get cut.

2) What I didn't elaborate on is we always went BPA, and look where that has gotten us...

Sed Ellis was a bust
Malcolm Jenkins was one of the worst Safeties in the NFL starter wise
Patrick Robinson was destroyed last year

But we haven't drafted a 1st round LBer since 95, and only 1 other LB in the 2nd since then.

We need someone who can pass rush from the outside, and our best chance is one of the "boom or bust" guys, as sad as it makes me. We need it badly.
The links I just posted addresses your question about Williams.

But back to topic. I understand your argument completely and it makes some sense.

But I simply think you are undervaluing what Richardson would add to your defense.
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Old 02-07-2013, 11:45 PM    (permalink
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Are you guys cutting Will Smith and if not do you think he could make the transition to the 3-4? He'd have to be an OLB.


edit - and do you think resigning Casillas is possible?
Will Smith is over 30, not fast, and no chance of him staying this year. He is due 12ish million this year. Casillas may be possible, but I dont think he has played in a 3-4 (maybe in college?)

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The links I just posted addresses your question about Williams.

But back to topic. I understand your argument completely and it makes some sense.

But I simply think you are undervaluing what Richardson would add to your defense.
I understand the link, but the point I am saying is not until JJ himself have we seen a true 3-4 DE put up sack numbers like this. I always hear that they was moving Mario to OLB (which they did) so I honestly never heard of people being disappointed with him.

But to the Saints, your right I am undervaluing a player who might not even start for us, over players that are pretty much guaranteed to start. Not to mention our misfortunes with DT in the first, I would rather just go with a athlete at OLB instead of another NT.
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Old 02-07-2013, 11:56 PM    (permalink
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Will Smith is over 30, not fast, and no chance of him staying this year. He is due 12ish million this year. Casillas may be possible, but I dont think he has played in a 3-4 (maybe in college?)



I understand the link, but the point I am saying is not until JJ himself have we seen a true 3-4 DE put up sack numbers like this. I always hear that they was moving Mario to OLB (which they did) so I honestly never heard of people being disappointed with him.

But to the Saints, your right I am undervaluing a player who might not even start for us, over players that are pretty much guaranteed to start. Not to mention our misfortunes with DT in the first, I would rather just go with a athlete at OLB instead of another NT.
Agree to disagree. A 3rd 5-tech/definite nickel 3rd-down inside pass rusher is basically as important (if not more) as a starter in today's NFL.

I'm not suggesting you ignore OLB, but I think the first pick should and will be best defensive player available regardless of position.
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:32 PM    (permalink
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Will Smith is over 30, not fast, and no chance of him staying this year. He is due 12ish million this year. Casillas may be possible, but I dont think he has played in a 3-4 (maybe in college?)

I figured on Smith, just curious. Casillas' value seems to be in his ability to pass rush, so I thought he might be useful, but wasn't really sure.
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Old 02-08-2013, 10:57 PM    (permalink
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Vaccaro isn't a bad pick, but Cordarrelle or Barkevious would be a better one!
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Old 02-08-2013, 11:18 PM    (permalink
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I'd like to see a second round since you have a few peculiar picks.
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Old 02-08-2013, 11:20 PM    (permalink
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I'd like to see a second round since you have a few peculiar picks.
I need to brush up on more tape before I can start thinking about second rounders. It's hard enough to find enough guys I can envision going in the first!

There will be plenty others. I hate chalky mocks in April so I absolutely would never post one in freaking Feb.
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