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Old 02-06-2013, 04:33 PM    (permalink
Shreckart
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Best part of this whole thing... JaMarcus Russell is ahead of Tebow. I find that quite comical. But good work, not too much discretion with your results.
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Old 02-06-2013, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
If I need one quarterback to win a game for me tomorrow, I'm not picking Aaron Rodgers. He is statistically great in the regular season with an arsenal of weapons around him, but I wouldn't characterize him as a "big game" QB. He and the Packers had a phenomenal run in 2010 on their way to the Super Bowl, but outside of that he has been very similar to Peyton Manning in terms of playoff success (1-3) and that lone victory came against a Joe Webb led Vikings squad. I'm not hating on Aaron, just pointing out the facts.

I'd still take Tom Brady before anyone else.
brady hasnt won the "big game" in nearly 10 years now
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Old 02-06-2013, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by K Train View Post
brady hasnt won the "big game" in nearly 10 years now
I'm gonna take the guy with a 17-6 career playoff record
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Old 02-06-2013, 06:56 PM    (permalink
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and yet its been a decade since hes gotten a ring, but what has he done? oh hes dazzled in the regular season and come up short in the playoffs....just like your reasoning for not taking rodgers or manning, both of whom have a ring more recently than brady
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Old 02-06-2013, 07:09 PM    (permalink
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and yet its been a decade since hes gotten a ring, but what has he done? oh hes dazzled in the regular season and come up short in the playoffs....just like your reasoning for not taking rodgers or manning, both of whom have a ring more recently than brady
Brady has 3 rings, been to the big game 5 times, and he's been to the AFC title game the last two season (referencing recent history).

Let me give you a hypothetical...how would Tom Brady do if he were able to throw to Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb, and Finley? what if Rodgers and Brady switched places?
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Old 02-06-2013, 07:16 PM    (permalink
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Wilson should be higher above Luck probably
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Old 02-06-2013, 07:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
Brady has 3 rings, been to the big game 5 times, and he's been to the AFC title game the last two season (referencing recent history).

Let me give you a hypothetical...how would Tom Brady do if he were able to throw to Jennings, Nelson, Jones, Cobb, and Finley? what if Rodgers and Brady switched places?
im more on board with saying that those GB wrs arent as great as a lot of people think they are....rodgers is surgical and runs that offense to perfection
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:36 PM    (permalink
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I don't think enough weight is placed on the surrounding talent a QB has/is working with.

A case point is Matt Ryan/Phillip Rivers. Ryan's playing with two top 10 WR's and a Top 5 TE. Phillip Rivers is playing with an over the hill TE and 1 WR that has any business in the league. Two years ago you could have made a strong arguement to put Rivers top 5 when he had outstanding group of offensive talent around him. Now - we are talking top 15. Now, Matt Ryan makes a strong case as the #5 guy. But is he really better than Phillip Rivers?

I hate grading QB's after their first year too. Let's see how well Kaepernick, RGIII, Russell and Luck play after a year of film is build on them. One or two may stay strong but I doubt we would be talking about all four as a top 12 guys next year.
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Old 02-08-2013, 06:46 PM    (permalink
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I don't think enough weight is placed on the surrounding talent a QB has/is working with.

A case point is Matt Ryan/Phillip Rivers. Ryan's playing with two top 10 WR's and a Top 5 TE. Phillip Rivers is playing with an over the hill TE and 1 WR that has any business in the league. Two years ago you could have made a strong arguement to put Rivers top 5 when he had outstanding group of offensive talent around him. Now - we are talking top 15. Now, Matt Ryan makes a strong case as the #5 guy. But is he really better than Phillip Rivers?

I hate grading QB's after their first year too. Let's see how well Kaepernick, RGIII, Russell and Luck play after a year of film is build on them. One or two may stay strong but I doubt we would be talking about all four as a top 12 guys next year.
That's not a bad point. But making those around him better is part of the ranking. But yea, Rivers gets no help. Sanchez either. I just don't like to downgrade guys for utilizing talent around him well (Ryan). So it's tough to do the opposite even though the idea is correct. I don't know how I'd incorporate it into the %s. Bottom line speaks in these rankings. Every situation is different, some may be more challenging, but 2012 performance is the most important piece of the pie. Rivers did not play well. That doesn't tell the whole story but it's unfair to the others to grade him on a curve. By the same token - Carolina's coaching was terrible. Should I upgrade Newton for that? No.

These rankings are always going to be fluid. The point isn't to predict how they'll ultimately end up. It's to show a current landscape of the position. I fully expect the list to be different next year.

As for your point about the four youngsters, I disagree. There is no reason to expect any of them to regress by much. They all have parts of their games they can actually improve and while other teams have film on them - their experience and knowledge has grown and will continue to grow - giving them a mental edge, Xs and Os edge, and preparation edge they didn't have as rookies.

I could buy an argument about RGIII's running style leading to chronic injuries, but I took injuries almost completely out of this discussion because it gets real tricky when you add them into the equation.
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Old 02-08-2013, 08:59 PM    (permalink
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I decided to use your criteria to create my own top list. The only difference is I replaced Russell with Cassel. Rating is out of 100.
  1. Aaron Rodgers- 95.4
  2. Tom Brady- 91.9
  3. Joe Flacco- 87.6 (Arm talent, team success, and trajectory really helped him)
  4. Peyton Manning- 87.4
  5. Matt Ryan- 85.2
  6. Ben Roethlisberger- 83.3 (2012 hurt him a lot)
  7. Eli Manning- 77.0 (2012 hurt him even more than Big Ben)
  8. Andrew Luck- 76.4 (Of course helped by trajectory)
  9. Tony Romo- 75.0
  10. Drew Brees- 74.9
  11. Robert Griffin- 71.3
  12. Andy Dalton- 69.6 (Helped out a lot by Team Success. Career to date is pretty high too)
  13. Collin Kaepernick- 69.3 (Trajectory, arm talent, and mobility are sky high)
  14. Russell Wilson- 68.7
  15. Jay Cutler- 64.9 (Arm Talent alone put him ahead of a few guys behing him)
  16. Matt Schaub- 61.9 (Solid QB, but lack of trajectory and mobility hurt)
  17. Matthew Stafford- 59.9 (2012 really hurt him)
  18. Josh Freeman- 59.7
  19. Cam Newton- 58.0 (Lack of team success hurts a lot)
  20. Philip Rivers- 57.7
  21. Sam Bradford- 45.4
  22. Christian Ponder- 41.9
  23. Alex Smith- 41.6 (Could be higher but trajectory is low and being benched midseason hurts)
  24. Carson Palmer- 40.3 (Living off past glories. Should be lower)
  25. Ryan Tannehill- 37.8 (Trajectory and arm talent seperate him from the guys lower)
  26. Ryan Fitzpatrick- 35.1
  27. Nick Foles- 33.5 (I like him more than most, so trajectory is higher than others might rank it)
  28. Michael Vick- 32.7
  29. Mark Sanchez- 28.0 (Sure 2012 was awful, but making the AFC Championship a few times helps)
  30. Tim Tebow- 27.0 (Clutch and scrambling ability helped A LOT)
  31. Jake Locker- 25.7
  32. Kevin Kolb- 23.7
  33. Blaine Gabbert- 22.6
  34. Brandon Weeden- 20.5
  35. Chad Henne- 17.6
  36. Ryan Mallett- 15.7 (Could he be higher? Sure. But 2012 season and career to date are non-existant. And how can we judge decision making and intangibles if he never plays?)
  37. Matt Flynn- 10.2 (Like Mallett, not playing in 2012 kills his number. Having less arm talent and a lower ceiling give Mallett the advantage over him)
Im not understanding how Brees is so low on this... Dudes going to go down as (statistically) a Top 5 QB with team success, the intangibles, decision making, accuracy, etc... Maybe a homer but I dont understand how 3 or 4 of those guys above him are... well, above him.

But I can say he is #4
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:14 PM    (permalink
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Pretty good spot for Andrew Luck. He is the next great QB who should last a long time in this league. Has the size, athletic ability to extend plays, and smarts to be an elite QB soon.
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:20 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by fenikz View Post
Wilson should be higher above Luck probably
I dont think you can definatively say that. Luck has better talent, a better QB pedigree, and has grown up with a football background.

Wilson will be very good as well, but that incredible defense and run game really helped him out this year.

Give Luck those things and look out!
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:34 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by zachsaints52 View Post
Im not understanding how Brees is so low on this... Dudes going to go down as (statistically) a Top 5 QB with team success, the intangibles, decision making, accuracy, etc... Maybe a homer but I dont understand how 3 or 4 of those guys above him are... well, above him.

But I can say he is #4
It is mostly because 2012 was weighted so heavily. Brees threw a lot of yards but he also had a bunch on INTs and missed the playoffs. Guys like Rodgers, Flacco, Ryan, Luck, and Eli have a better trajectory as well.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:36 PM    (permalink
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Luck has grown up with a football background.
So if Wilson would have grown up with a dad that was a terrible football player he would be better than he is?
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Old 02-08-2013, 11:30 PM    (permalink
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Now that the season is over, here are my rankings for top QBs in the NFL. This is extremely subjective, obviously.

The Breakdown:

35% 2012 performance
15% Career performance to date
10% Projected career performance (trajectory/upside)
8% Raw arm talent (5% accuracy/touch, 3% pure arm strength)
8% Decision-making/ability to read and manipulate coverages
8% Team success
8% Intangibles/leadership qualities/making those around him better
3% Mobility within the pocket/scrambling ability
3% Clutch history
2% Ability as a runner
2% Durability (I assume every player is healthy for this list)

*When you add everything up together the question that this list answers is this: Which QB would you rather have right now, today, to play one game, assuming full health and ideal circumstances in terms of offense and supporting cast for that player. How much time to prepare, what exactly the made up opponent would be, and if the question is changed to 'for one full season' should not affect the ranking.


1) Aaron Rodgers
2) Peyton Manning
3) Tom Brady
4) Drew Brees
5) Ben Roethlisberger
6) Eli Manning
7) Joe Flacco
8) Matt Ryan
9) Andrew Luck
10) Colin Kaepernick
11) Robert Griffin III
12) Cam Newton
13) Russell Wilson
14) Matthew Stafford
15) Philip Rivers
16) Jay Cutler
17) Tony Romo
18) Matt Schaub
19) Sam Bradford
20) Andy Dalton
21) Josh Freeman
22) Carson Palmer
23) Ryan Tannehill
24) Ryan Fitzpatrick
25) Michael Vick
26) Alex Smith
27) Brandon Weeden
28) Kevin Kolb
28) Christian Ponder
29) Mark Sanchez
30) Matt Flynn
31) Matt Moore
32) Jake Locker
33) Chad Henne
34) Ryan Mallett
35) Nick Foles
36) Blaine Gabbert
37) Jamarcus Russell
38) Tim Tebow

*Backups with no realistic chance at a starting job or trade are not ranked (Shaun Hill, Bruce Gradkowski, etc.)
How is Ryan Mallet above Nick Foles with the given criteria?
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:01 AM    (permalink
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How is Ryan Mallet above Nick Foles with the given criteria?
Wasn't impressed with Foles this year and my evaluations of them from college.

And that fake punt play for Mallett that forced Harbaugh to call a time out really helped his case.
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:43 AM    (permalink
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im not sure if trolling at this point

2/10
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Old 02-09-2013, 11:36 AM    (permalink
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So if Wilson would have grown up with a dad that was a terrible football player he would be better than he is?
He did. Wilson's father was a training cap cut.

IMO, Luck had the better WR's and TE's to throw too but RW had a better running game.

Luck has the first pick, Peyton Manning successor hype.
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Old 02-09-2013, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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Now I'm just waiting for Ness to make his list so I can see Alex Smith in the top 15
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Old 02-09-2013, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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Now I'm just waiting for Ness to make his list so I can see Alex Smith in the top 15
Oy LonghornsLegend...



Right, because I've been the frontman endorser when talking about Alex Smith during his entire tenure with the 49ers, or even within the last two years.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:02 PM    (permalink
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Oy LonghornsLegend...



Right, because I've been the frontman endorser when talking about Alex Smith during his entire tenure with the 49ers, or even within the last two years.


Because that's what I said, right? I said I am waiting on your list that puts Alex Smith in the top 15 which you've already made numerous points that he is, correct? I don't see the point in going to a completely different scenario that has nothing to do with what I said, or this thread.
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Old 02-09-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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I'd say it was implied with the tone of your response. When did I say I was making a list anyways?

And notice my first response to the OP regarding this thread was about Wilson being ranked higher. Didn't say anything regarding his ranking here with Smith. If I was so pro "top 15" then I probably would have contested the ranking. I usually put quarterbacks in groups anyway. Maybe I said Smith was a top 15 QB at one point? I don't remember it being recently.
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