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Old 02-08-2013, 03:26 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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Default My (Different) Top 10 Players

I have never ranked players before, so this is new for me. Although my rankings may look a lot different than the norm, please consider how many first rounders actually fulfill expectations before you call me crazy. In my rankings, I am thinking about one thing above all: What kind of PROS will they be?

1. OT Eric Fisher- What I saw in his senior bowl drills was an OT that looked the way an NFL all pro OT is supposed to look like- natural knee bend, no panic, ability to maintain balance and absorb the kinetic energy of the rusher like it was his mutant ability. He will only get better with NFL level weight training and nutrition program, but everything else, he's got it.

2. OT Luke Joeckel- Like Fisher, shows mastery of the position. I don't see elite length and I wonder just a bit about his true ability to protect the QB due to Johnny football's uncanny ability to avoid sacks.

3. DT Star Lotulelei- Power, burst, size and complete scheme versatility.

4. CB Dee Milliner- Great size and natural coverage skills, fluid, physicality that is rare, lacks top end speed.

5. DE Ziggy Ansah- Ansah has both unique physical qualities and a natural feel for making plays despite his newness to the game. Any defensive coordinator worth his salt should have no problem making this kid a pro bowler in two years.

6. OG Chance Warmack- This guy has to have the highest floor of any player. What he does is move bodies, so if you like that sort of thing, Warmack is your man.

7. QB Geno Smith- Smith is not a special physical talent like Cam Newton and he is not the second coming like Andrew Luck who's justified hype started when he was a sophmore, but Smith is a highly accomplished, deadly accurate passer and somehow, this appears to have gotten lost.

8. DE Bjorn Werner- I disagree with people saying Werner is just as good as a 3-4 OLB. I think he is a pure 4-3 DE with edge speed out of a 3 point stance. He has the uncanny ability to effect passer by batting them down when he is not getting to the QB. Nothing freaking about him and there doesn't need to be. He reminds me of former pro bowl DE Trace Armstrong.

9. WR Cordarrelle Patterson- Patterson is the one true "big weapon" WR in this draft. He is not as savy as Allen, but at he drips with playmaking ability, so much so that he was taking handoffs in the backfield! He made the transition from JUCO to DI and I think he will make a successful transition to the pros where I see him visiting the endzone often. Do not, I repeat, do not be surprised if GMs begin a Bey Bey Thoms style love affair with him once workouts start.

10. OT Lane Johnson- I was not a believer at first, but the more I looked at video of him, I saw a pure LT and not a former QB TE. He has very quick feet and can recover to ride the DE past the QB when he is beaten initially. Now, he does need to fill his body out a bit, but he has the frame and actually looks thin at the moment. Some team is going to sure up their LT position long term.
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Old 02-08-2013, 03:42 PM    (permalink
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This is pretty normal. I do like seeing Ansah and Patterson up high in the rankings.
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:39 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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How am I lookin'?
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:43 PM    (permalink
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Millner is too high. He's good, but not top-10 worthy. Alabama DBs always look great in college because Saban gives them pro coaching, and they play in a Cover-2 behind great DLines which reduce the need to backpedal frequently and cover downfield.

Ansah is going to be a bust in the NFL. I would want no part of a guy with less than 16 college sacks in the first round if I'm drafting him to be a pass rusher. The bust rate for guys with less than 16 college sacks is very high, and the vast majority of the great pass rushers in the NFL history put up 16 or more, and many times FAR more (as in 30+ college sacks).

Jarvis Jones and Damontre Moore should be in your top-10, imho. You can't argue with their production, unless you're worried about medical issues with Jones.

I'd also put Tavon Austin in the top-10 over Patterson. Austin is the best WR in this class by far based on athleticism and production.
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:48 PM    (permalink
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Go back and watch BYU game tape. Ziggy Ansah was lined up way more at DT than he was at DE. In fact he was rarely set out on the edge with his only responsibility to rush the passer.

That's why Ansah's sack numbers are so low, he was not really ever put into a position to purely rush after the snap.
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:50 PM    (permalink
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Millner is too high. He's good, but not top-10 worthy. Alabama DBs always look great in college because Saban gives them pro coaching, and they play in a Cover-2 behind great DLines which reduce the need to backpedal frequently and cover downfield.

Ansah is going to be a bust in the NFL. I would want no part of a guy with less than 16 college sacks in the first round if I'm drafting him to be a pass rusher. The bust rate for guys with less than 16 college sacks is very high, and the vast majority of the great pass rushers in the NFL history put up 16 or more, and many times FAR more (as in 30+ college sacks).

Jarvis Jones and Damontre Moore should be in your top-10, imho. You can't argue with their production, unless you're worried about medical issues with Jones.

I'd also put Tavon Austin in the top-10 over Patterson. Austin is the best WR in this class by far based on athleticism and production.
I did ask for feedback, but some of your assertions are ridiculous. Austin over
Patterson? 175 pounds vs 216? Also, Ansah being a bust. You are citing some sort of trend, but Ansah's situation is rather unique being so new to football. Did you see his domination at the Senior Bowl? Nothing about that performance says bust. Moore would be 11 or 12 on my list.
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Old 02-24-2013, 11:59 PM    (permalink
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Go back and watch BYU game tape. Ziggy Ansah was lined up way more at DT than he was at DE. In fact he was rarely set out on the edge with his only responsibility to rush the passer.

That's why Ansah's sack numbers are so low, he was not really ever put into a position to purely rush after the snap.
Then why are we drafting him to rush the passer in the NFL?

If you want to draft a pass rusher in the first round, you shouldn't be blindly speculating about his ability to you know, rush the passer. I want a guy that has proven that he can do it at the college level, and do it consistently and frequently.

95% of the great pass rushers in NFL history have put up at least 16 or more sacks in their college career, with most putting up 30 or more. Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Robert Mathis, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, Michael Strahan, Jared Allen, Reggie White, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Richard Dent, John Randle all put up more than 30 sacks during their time in college.

Look, if you really like what he does on film in one year's worth of tape, then by all means, take a chance on him, but do it no earlier than the 3rd round. Any body who drafts a guy with 4.5 sacks in his college career with a 1st round pick is just asking for trouble. A smart GM would never pick this guy over more proven players like Damontre Moore and Jarvis Jones.


* And before you bring up Jason Pierre Paul, please know that he is basically ONE player out of thousands of first round pass rushers, otherwise known as the possible "exception to the rule" AND he played at community college before transferring to USF for a few games, so he has a bit of an excuse as to his low college production, AND he's had ONE really good season (more than 6 sacks) out of three so far, so he's not entirely proven yet as a truly "elite" player.
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Old 02-25-2013, 12:04 AM    (permalink
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2. OT Luke Joeckel- Like Fisher, shows mastery of the position. I don't see elite length and I wonder just a bit about his true ability to protect the QB due to Johnny football's uncanny ability to avoid sacks.
True me, Johnny football had the cleanest pocket of any college QB. His crazy runs happened after he had time to pat the ball.

Very nice list. You have a few players in their that I would not but their is certainly nothing outrageous in my opinion.
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Old 02-25-2013, 12:35 AM    (permalink
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Removed due to bothering overly sensitive people.

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Old 02-25-2013, 02:22 AM    (permalink
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I love Lane Johnson and do not dispute putting him in the top 10. That being said, an offensive-line coach is going to have to teach him to keep his shoulders in line with his feet. I have seen him "lunge" into defensive-ends. Its not a bad thing though, because he is just being aggressive. But some of the NFL defensive-ends will abuse him if he doesn't work on it.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:28 AM    (permalink
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When citing burst, you were referring to his heart, correct?
Check the date of my post and compare that to when his heart condition was revealed for the first time.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:30 AM    (permalink
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True me, Johnny football had the cleanest pocket of any college QB. His crazy runs happened after he had time to pat the ball.

Very nice list. You have a few players in their that I would not but their is certainly nothing outrageous in my opinion.
Okay, that's why I had Jockel rated very highly. I just had Fisher a tick higher. Thanks.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:33 AM    (permalink
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Then why are we drafting him to rush the passer in the NFL?

If you want to draft a pass rusher in the first round, you shouldn't be blindly speculating about his ability to you know, rush the passer. I want a guy that has proven that he can do it at the college level, and do it consistently and frequently.

95% of the great pass rushers in NFL history have put up at least 16 or more sacks in their college career, with most putting up 30 or more. Simeon Rice, Terrell Suggs, Robert Mathis, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, Michael Strahan, Jared Allen, Reggie White, Julius Peppers, Dwight Freeney, Richard Dent, John Randle all put up more than 30 sacks during their time in college.

Look, if you really like what he does on film in one year's worth of tape, then by all means, take a chance on him, but do it no earlier than the 3rd round. Any body who drafts a guy with 4.5 sacks in his college career with a 1st round pick is just asking for trouble. A smart GM would never pick this guy over more proven players like Damontre Moore and Jarvis Jones.


* And before you bring up Jason Pierre Paul, please know that he is basically ONE player out of thousands of first round pass rushers, otherwise known as the possible "exception to the rule" AND he played at community college before transferring to USF for a few games, so he has a bit of an excuse as to his low college production, AND he's had ONE really good season (more than 6 sacks) out of three so far, so he's not entirely proven yet as a truly "elite" player.
It's pretty simple, Ansah is the exception to the rule. He is disruptive in more ways than just getting sacks. He gets pressures, he bats balls and he absolutely destroys the run just like JPP. You obviously have not seen him play much because your entire argument is based on sacks totals only.
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:48 AM    (permalink
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When citing burst, you were referring to his heart, correct?
Seriously? You are that low of a person to make a joke about his condition?
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Old 02-25-2013, 06:54 AM    (permalink
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BYU didn't know what they had in Ansah. After watching the Senior Bowl you see how much potential he has a 43 DE in the pros.

You let Ziggy actually learn how to play the position and he's going to dominate.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:56 AM    (permalink
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It's pretty simple, Ansah is the exception to the rule. He is disruptive in more ways than just getting sacks. He gets pressures, he bats balls and he absolutely destroys the run just like JPP. You obviously have not seen him play much because your entire argument is based on sacks totals only.
If I'm a GM picking in the first round, I think I'd go with the 90% chance that he's a bust rather than the less than 10% chance that he's an exception to the rule.

Guys like this have huge bust potential whether you want to believe it or not. He simply has not produced at a high level in college and you're just gambling on his potential in the NFL based on some subjective analysis and far-flung extrapolation.
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Old 02-25-2013, 07:58 AM    (permalink
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I did ask for feedback, but some of your assertions are ridiculous. Austin over
Patterson? 175 pounds vs 216? Also, Ansah being a bust. You are citing some sort of trend, but Ansah's situation is rather unique being so new to football. Did you see his domination at the Senior Bowl? Nothing about that performance says bust. Moore would be 11 or 12 on my list.
You basically value some fleeting performance (that could easily be a fluke) in ONE game (Senior Bowl) over years of evidence (in the case of more polished prospects like Moore and Jones)?

That's insanely stupid and would cost you your job in the NFL if you're a GM and pick this guy in the 1st round.
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Old 02-25-2013, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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Blah blah blah...

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Old 02-25-2013, 10:08 AM    (permalink
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You basically value some fleeting performance (that could easily be a fluke) in ONE game (Senior Bowl) over years of evidence (in the case of more polished prospects like Moore and Jones)?

That's insanely stupid and would cost you your job in the NFL if you're a GM and pick this guy in the 1st round.
It's not insane as he IS going in the first round. Jones is a far different players so I don't know why you are bringing him up. Jones is not even a DE. And again, you are totally and completely ignoring the fact that he discovered football late but was able to have the level of success he did. Sacks are not everything.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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It's not insane as he IS going in the first round. Jones is a far different players so I don't know why you are bringing him up. Jones is not even a DE. And again, you are totally and completely ignoring the fact that he discovered football late but was able to have the level of success he did. Sacks are not everything.
If sacks aren't everything, can you explain to me why 90% of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history had 18+ sacks in their college careers and many of the top guys (Reggie White, Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, John Randle, Jared Allen, etc) had 30+ in college?
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:17 AM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
If sacks aren't everything, can you explain to me why 90% of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history had 18+ sacks in their college careers and many of the top guys (Reggie White, Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, John Randle, Jared Allen, etc) had 30+ in college?
I believe I already spoke to this point. Scroll back and read my response this time.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
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If sacks aren't everything, can you explain to me why 90% of the top 50 sack leaders in NFL history had 18+ sacks in their college careers and many of the top guys (Reggie White, Michael Strahan, Bruce Smith, Derrick Thomas, John Randle, Jared Allen, etc) had 30+ in college?
The 10% do exist though and you have to keep an eye open towards them at the least. You miss out on a JPP if you don't. Maybe Ansah is too raw, maybe he's a bum. I don't know. I don't thin you 100% write him off due to production in this case though. He doesn't have 1st round production, but he has 1st round talent, so you have to decide if he's worth the gamble.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:21 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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The 10% do exist though and you have to keep an eye open towards them at the least. You miss out on a JPP if you don't. Maybe Ansah is too raw, maybe he's a bum. I don't know. I don't thin you 100% write him off due to production in this case though. He doesn't have 1st round production, but he has 1st round talent, so you have to decide if he's worth the gamble.
Why make such an insane gamble?

If a bet had only a 10% payout or worse, would you even consider investing thousands of dollars in it?

That's what you're doing if you spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on a guy like Ansah.

If I can get him in the 3rd round or later, when picks are less valuable and you're taking risks on guys anyway, then I'm fine with it.

But this guy absolutely is too risky as a first round (or even second round) pick.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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I believe I already spoke to this point. Scroll back and read my response this time.
No, you really didn't answer it.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:23 AM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
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The 10% do exist though and you have to keep an eye open towards them at the least. You miss out on a JPP if you don't. Maybe Ansah is too raw, maybe he's a bum. I don't know. I don't thin you 100% write him off due to production in this case though. He doesn't have 1st round production, but he has 1st round talent, so you have to decide if he's worth the gamble.
Apparently the guy just wants to run around in circles. Ansah has been compared to JPP both physically and situationally for a long time now, yet he acts like he can't understand that. JPP ran a 4.7 at 270, Ansah ran a 4.62 at 271. They both reps 21. They are both 6'5" and there was a one pound difference between them when JPP ran.
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