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Old 02-25-2013, 08:33 AM    (permalink
AcheTen (Thumper)
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
Turner was a big money free agent, not a cheap pick up off the streets. THat's valuable resources.

Top starting backs in the league

1st rounders -
Petersen,Lynch,Spiller,Johnson,Bush,Richardson,Mar tin,Mendenhall(kind of sucks now, but was effective for a time), Williams/Stewart,Mcfadden,Mcgahee,S.Jackson,Matthews
How many of these RBs made significant contributions to a playoff team that made a deep playoff run? At any point in their lives?



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2nd rounders - Forte,Rice,Mccoy,RIdley,MJD,Charles
One playoff RB - Rice - who I just showed was OUTPLAYED by a 3rd round pick on his own team.


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3rd rounders - Gore,Murray

4th - Sproles
Gore was the only playoff RB here and yeah, he was playing OK but not great behind the best OL in football which could have made any RB look good, and on a team with a great young QB and great defense. Before that defense became good in 2011, by the way, Frank Gore was just another 4.something yard per carry back playing on a bad team that he was powerless to make better.

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beyond - Morris,FOster - Funky Shanahan system, BJGE and maybe Bradshaw(not sure if he'll start somewhere again),TUrner(done for, big money free agent when he signed).

Guys like Lynch,Foster and Turner all god paid big contacts, which means teams invested valuable resources in them.
The point is that teams are not investing valuable draft resources in them, and they are paying mid-level contracts to replaceable players.

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You want a good starting RB, you take one in the top 3 rounds and/or pay them big money. Sure, there are exceptions, but its about the same odds as you put on Ziggy Ansah in the other thread.
If you want a good playoff team, you don't ever take a RB higher than the 3rd round, and you either draft one in the 3rd round or later in the draft, or you just sign a free agent or trade late round picks for him.

And instead of spending 1st and 2nd round picks on a RB you invest those in DL, OL, CB or WR instead.
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Old 02-25-2013, 08:45 AM    (permalink
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Rice was outperformed by a what round RB? NE took 2 2nd round RBS recently and made the AFCG, SF has a 3rd round starter and used a 2nd on a RB last year. Atlanta had the big money free agent and I'm betting they replace him with a top 3 rounds rookie this year. At least 3 first round RBs were in the playoffs.

Most of the top RBs have been in the playoffs too, as a key piece. Charles,Mccoy,Petersen,Johnson etc.
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Old 02-25-2013, 09:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Nastradamus View Post
Rice was outperformed by a what round RB?
3rd round, as in "the earliest you should consider drafting a RB"

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NE took 2 2nd round RBS recently and made the AFCG, SF has a 3rd round starter and used a 2nd on a RB last year.
How much did those 2 2nd round RBs help the team? How much do they matter? New England has had an elite offense for the past 3+ years, went to the Super Bowl last year, with an UNDRAFTED FREE AGENT running back (Benjarvus Green Ellis).

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Atlanta had the big money free agent and I'm betting they replace him with a top 3 rounds rookie this year. At least 3 first round RBs were in the playoffs.
If Atlanta is smart, they won't even think of spending a 1st or 2nd round pick on a RB at any point in the near future.

IF they get a late round guy (3rd round or later) or a free agent, their offense will be just as good as if they had spent a top pick on a RB.


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Most of the top RBs have been in the playoffs too, as a key piece. Charles,Mccoy,Petersen,Johnson etc.
The 2010 Chiefs got there because of schedule and defense. Otherwise Charles has toiled in obscurity. McCoy has a been a top-5 RB for a while and the Eagles haven't won a single playoff game.

Peterson's Vikings have only been relevant in the playoffs when they had Favre putting up MVP numbers.

Chris Johnson has done nothing to put his teams into the playoffs or win playoff games. In 2008 they were a top-3 defense and it didn't matter who their RB was, and in 2009 when Johnson had his best season ever (2000+ yards) they were a .500 team.
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Old 02-25-2013, 09:14 AM    (permalink
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I'm not saying you can build a team around a RB. There might not be more than one position you can say that about. I'm just saying that it is often useful to have a good one and if you want a good one, you draft him in the top 3 rounds. The idea that you can get a RB off the streets or in the late rounds of the draft is a myth. If you are lucky, you get the high pick second hand a la Lynch.
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Old 02-25-2013, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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What playoff history has shown us is that you simply don't EVER need to spend anything higher than a 3rd round pick on a RB to be a playoff team or even a Super Bowl team.

I can't say the same about QB, DL, or OL, however. You need to spend premium picks on studs at at least say 2/3 of those positions to be an elite team.

My point is that RBs are not very important, and that a team would be wiser to spend their 1st and 2nd round picks on more important positions like QB, DL, OL, CB, and WR and literally never spend them on RB, and instead just get free agent / late round picks and plug them in at RB.

That's why I'm answering this question by saying "best RB? it doesn't matter." Because the best RB is probably going to be some 1st or 2nd round guy, but that guy won't be the reason a team wins playoff games or goes to the Super Bowl. The players in this draft that mean the difference between playoff wins and not winning playoff games will be the DL, the OL, the QBs, and the like.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
What playoff history has shown us is that you simply don't EVER need to spend anything higher than a 3rd round pick on a RB to be a playoff team or even a Super Bowl team.

I can't say the same about QB, DL, or OL, however. You need to spend premium picks on studs at at least say 2/3 of those positions to be an elite team.

My point is that RBs are not very important, and that a team would be wiser to spend their 1st and 2nd round picks on more important positions like QB, DL, OL, CB, and WR and literally never spend them on RB, and instead just get free agent / late round picks and plug them in at RB.

That's why I'm answering this question by saying "best RB? it doesn't matter." Because the best RB is probably going to be some 1st or 2nd round guy, but that guy won't be the reason a team wins playoff games or goes to the Super Bowl. The players in this draft that mean the difference between playoff wins and not winning playoff games will be the DL, the OL, the QBs, and the like.
I agree with the gist of what you are saying. However, RBs are very important. It's just that the delta of impact on an team's performance between a 1st round RB and a 3rd round RB is often small.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:10 AM    (permalink
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I agree with the gist of what you are saying. However, RBs are very important. It's just that the delta of impact on an team's performance between a 1st round RB and a 3rd round RB is often small.
But RBs really aren't even that important. Look at the teams that won the Super Bowl recently with anemic rushing attacks.

The Giants in 2011 were dead last in rushing. The 2010 Packers were close to the bottom.

What's more important is how you a.) pass the ball on offense and b.) stop the pass on defense. The rest is almost inconsequential as long as you are baseline competent at it.

The 2012 Super Bowl teams were considered top rushing teams but what was more important was their QB's ability to make big plays in the passing game, and their defense's abilities to stop the opposing QBs (especially in the playoffs for the Ravens).
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Old 02-25-2013, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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Knile. Davis.
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Old 02-25-2013, 03:48 PM    (permalink
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Which RB in this class has the best "wiggle"?
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Old 02-25-2013, 03:51 PM    (permalink
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Knile. Davis.
He won't even be the best pro from the Razorback backfield, see Dennis Johnson.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:06 PM    (permalink
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Knile. Davis.
I am a fan but there is no way he stays healthy long enough to end up the best back from the class. He's a walking injury, and he runs higher then Dikembe Mutombo. Hopefully he can go to a time share somewhere that can limit his usage because I love his skillset, but he seems like he'll end up just like Felix Jones.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 02-25-2013, 10:10 PM    (permalink
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Which RB in this class has the best "wiggle"?
I think it's Ray Graham, but I liked him a lot more before his 4.8 40. I still can't believe he ran that slow.
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Old 02-28-2013, 09:56 PM    (permalink
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Basically every good RB not in a Shanahan offense was taken in the top 3 rounds. YOu seem to be defeating your own point.
Not true. The Mike Anderson's, Mike Griffith's etc.. A whole string of losers can run for shannahan. Terrell Davis was what round? He traded Clinton Portis because he knew he could plug in guys as long as they had 1 cut ability ala Morris
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Old 03-01-2013, 01:43 AM    (permalink
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Which RB in this class has the best "wiggle"?
Andre Ellington
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Old 03-01-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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Franklin of UCLA had a very solid Combine and is likely the best RB outside of Lacy who we still don't really know about till his pro day.
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Old 03-01-2013, 12:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by NFL Draft Master69 View Post
Marcus Lattimore!!!!!!!!
I think he's a good fit in SF since they have the opportunity to take their time with him and not rush him back.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 03-01-2013, 12:23 PM    (permalink
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Ray Graham baby.
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