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Old 03-02-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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Tony Banks at #42 was still a bust
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Old 03-02-2013, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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The QB's selected in 1996 were:

RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
2 42 Tony Banks QB Michigan State St. Louis Rams
3 85 Bobby Hoying QB Ohio State Philadelphia Eagles
4 100 Jeff Lewis QB Northern Arizona Denver Broncos
4 130 Danny Kanell QB Florida State New York Giants
7 238 Jon Stark QB Trinity International Baltimore Ravens
7 240 Kyle Wachholtz QB USC Green Bay Packers


Wow, what a $h!t pile!!!!
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Last edited by Shupp : 03-02-2013 at 01:45 PM.
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Old 03-02-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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1997 not a whole lot better:

RD SEL # PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL TEAM
1 26 Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech San Francisco 49ers
2 42 Jake Plummer QB Arizona State Arizona Cardinals
4 99 Danny Wuerffel QB Florida New Orleans Saints
4 110 Pat Barnes QB California Kansas City Chiefs
6 171 Mike Cherry QB Murray State New York Giants
6 191 Chuck Clements QB Houston New York Jets
7 204 Tony Graziani QB Oregon Atlanta Falcons
7 207 Koy Detmer QB Colorado Philadelphia Eagles
7 234 Wally Richardson QB Penn State Baltimore Ravens
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Old 03-02-2013, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
17/42. Yuck. And half of the non-busts in a given year end up only going 3 years for the team that drafts them.

Draft picks are more like lottery tickets than we think.
You missed some.

John Mobley had a very nice career and was an All-Pro once

Jeff Hartings was solid in Detroit and better with the Steelers, winning the Super Bowl as their starting center.

Regan Upshaw had a handful of good years

Pete Kendall started 188 games.

Jerome Woods had a solid career

Duane Clemons got 49.5 sacks


Add those guys to the 13 first rounders you did bold and that's 19/30. Not a bad success rate for the first round.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:30 PM    (permalink
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There will be two QBs in the the top ten.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bucfan12 View Post
I've heard several reports indicating Oakland has strong interest in Smith. However, all the money and picks invested in Pryor (3rd round pick in supplemental draft), 1st and 2nd round pick and 13 million in Palmer, are they really going to take a chance on a questionable QB? Taking Smith at 3 means you're expecting an elite QB. I don't know if any of the QBs fit that bill. Honestly, I think EJ Manuel might be the best QB in the class.

That's a great argument. So the Jets with Mark Sanchez as the 5th overall pick and a contract extension obviously won't need a QB, the Jags who have Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick won't need a QB, also the Cardinals who have Kolb for a 2nd round pick and a new contract certainly don't need a QB either, should I keep going?
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 03-02-2013, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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They said that 2011 was a terrible class after Luck dropped out and they set an all time record for rookie starts. Probably sophomore starts as well. I think that three quarterbacks go top 10 this year, just like last year and 2011.
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Old 03-02-2013, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by LonghornsLegend View Post
That's a great argument. So the Jets with Mark Sanchez as the 5th overall pick and a contract extension obviously won't need a QB, the Jags who have Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick won't need a QB, also the Cardinals who have Kolb for a 2nd round pick and a new contract certainly don't need a QB either, should I keep going?
The Oakland rumors were probably planted by Jax. They want to move back badly, and they don't think any QB in this class is as good as Gabbert. Buffalo, Arizona, Cleveland and the Jets are all sitting in the top 10 and good candidates to trade up.
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Old 03-02-2013, 04:01 PM    (permalink
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I thought Newton was more of the Vince Young type QB coming out of Auburn, but more physical and bigger arm. Saw too much diva and didn't like him as a successful QB prospect.

Seeing Kaepernick, he was just a hidden gem. Yes, he was a great athlete with 4.5 speed, but I see the accuracy, and progressions he made, and just the way he presented himself. I saw the "no flinch" poise and he displayed that this year, in the two biggest stages down in both the NFC title game and Super Bowl.

I think Cam needed an extra year in college to develop as a passer and to mature, the same as Vince Young. But I just didn't see the style Cam Newton played, translating to the pros.
Not to 'jack this thread, but Cam and CK played almost the exact same style of ball in college. I don't know how someone could be blown away by Kaepernick's play at Nevada, but just be whatever about what Newton did at Auburn.
Newton was a better passer and runner than CK in college. I don't get the infatuation for one over the other is all.

Remember I'm not talking about which one you like better as a pro now, I'm talking about as pro prospects coming out of college.

The reason I like Newton was the exact same reason I liked Kaepernick. I gave Cam the edge because of the level of competition he played against and his ability to overcome a subpar Auburn defense and still finish undefeated in the SEC.
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Old 03-02-2013, 04:05 PM    (permalink
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Quarterback position is worth twice any other on the field, remember. That has been determined by the free market. Average starting quarterback is paid double next highest position, defensive end. In essence an quarterback prospect only has to be "half as good" in relation to his peers to justify selection at a particular spot than any other position player. One third as "good" or less compared to some other positions. You can miss on two out of three quarterbacks in the draft and still come out even compared to hitting one for one on the linebacker position. Or safety or guard.
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Old 03-02-2013, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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Not to 'jack this thread, but Cam and CK played almost the exact same style of ball in college. I don't know how someone could be blown away by Kaepernick's play at Nevada, but just be whatever about what Newton did at Auburn.
Newton was a better passer and runner than CK in college. I don't get the infatuation for one over the other is all.

Remember I'm not talking about which one you like better as a pro now, I'm talking about as pro prospects coming out of college.

The reason I like Newton was the exact same reason I liked Kaepernick. I gave Cam the edge because of the level of competition he played against and his ability to overcome a subpar Auburn defense and still finish undefeated in the SEC.
Kaepernick is a year and a half older than Newton. Two years older than Gabbert. He didn't make his first start until he was 25, after a year and a half under one of the great QB developers in the game, Jim Harbaugh. Only got that start because the mediocre journeyman ahead of him was concussed. Still didn't match that mediocre journeyman's passing stats over the balance of the season or improve on his winning percentage.
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Old 03-02-2013, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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Ill throw out 200:1 odds on a QB taken in the first, min $10 bet.
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Old 03-02-2013, 06:26 PM    (permalink
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Ill throw out 200:1 odds on a QB taken in the first, min $10 bet.
QBs always end up going higher than they are "projected". With good reason. Different set of rules for the position. I would bet three in the top 10 and another one or two in the first round.
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Old 03-02-2013, 06:53 PM    (permalink
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Remember, 17 years ago, only seniors were eligible for the draft.
Lawrence Phillips was the 6th overall pick in 1996, and he was a junior. That's factually incorrect.
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Old 03-02-2013, 06:55 PM    (permalink
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Kaepernick is a year and a half older than Newton. Two years older than Gabbert. He didn't make his first start until he was 25, after a year and a half under one of the great QB developers in the game, Jim Harbaugh. Only got that start because the mediocre journeyman ahead of him was concussed. Still didn't match that mediocre journeyman's passing stats over the balance of the season or improve on his winning percentage.
That's where stats are misleading. The 49ers were able to have a more dynamic offense with Kaepernick on the field.
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Old 03-02-2013, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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That's where stats are misleading. The 49ers were able to have a more dynamic offense with Kaepernick on the field.
I suppose it was different, and Kaepernick is certainly a more dangerous run threat. Can't be bothered to go back and check out point scored differential between the two, but Alex definitely had better passing numbers. Their win/loss records were the same. Which was true for numerous teams who employed two quarterbacks more or less equally last season. 49ers, Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, Eagles, Cards (3). In each case the final stats for the two QBs were very close to each other. Which suggests that the overall quality of the team has a bigger effect on quarterback performance than the quarterback has on team performance.
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Old 03-02-2013, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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That's a great argument. So the Jets with Mark Sanchez as the 5th overall pick and a contract extension obviously won't need a QB, the Jags who have Blaine Gabbert with the 10th overall pick won't need a QB, also the Cardinals who have Kolb for a 2nd round pick and a new contract certainly don't need a QB either, should I keep going?
It is a great argument. Why take a suspect QB in the top 5. Why bury your franchise in a bigger mess. Teams do that. They take a QB in say 2012, then in 2013, after they screw up, again take another QB? Jacksonville is giving Gabbert competition, but not entirely giving up on him. Why? QBs can take 3 years to progress. I mean, look at Aaron Rodgers. He looked pretty lost in his 1st 2 years during pre-season action. Who knows how bad he could have been in the first 2 years if he had to see live action.

I look at the talent pool in this years QB class, and I can't really say any of them are top 10 worthy. Are their guys with upside? Yes. Definately. However, there is too much inconsistency. Geno Smith struggled tremendously against good defenses last year. Then hes going to have to face the big boys on Sundays?

none of these QBs are NFL ready. I think EJ Manuel is the best QB in the class and think he can be a starting QB for 10 years in this league. However, nothing I see from him thinks he can play in year 1. Best suited to hold the clipboard for a year.

It's a terrible year to be in the hunt for a Franchise QB. That is why Kansas City traded for Alex Smith. Taking a QB with the number 1 pick would have meant, well, good chance of wasting the pick and huge possibility of looking for another guy in the next 2-3 years.

I think it was said best by Brian Billick when regarding this class. He had Barkley as the 3rd QB in the class I believe and said he'd make a great Back up for some team in the NFL in say the 3rd/4th round.
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Old 03-02-2013, 08:15 PM    (permalink
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Not to 'jack this thread, but Cam and CK played almost the exact same style of ball in college. I don't know how someone could be blown away by Kaepernick's play at Nevada, but just be whatever about what Newton did at Auburn.
Newton was a better passer and runner than CK in college. I don't get the infatuation for one over the other is all.

Remember I'm not talking about which one you like better as a pro now, I'm talking about as pro prospects coming out of college.

The reason I like Newton was the exact same reason I liked Kaepernick. I gave Cam the edge because of the level of competition he played against and his ability to overcome a subpar Auburn defense and still finish undefeated in the SEC.
Yet, Cam only had 1 year at the SEC level. He had a ton of questions surrounding his character. Intangibles are what makes a QB. Kaepernick had them. I didn't see them in Cam.

Both are great athletes, but Kaepernick had it mentally. Cam, honestly, still think will be a bust.

We've seen it already. Cam has struggled to sit back and read defenses when they take away the read option. Kaepernick has shown you he can sit back in teh pocket and sling it. That's what I see the difference in coming out between the two. Intangibles and being able to develop as a pocket QB. Kap can do both and shown it. I didn't think Cam could and still don't think he will
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Old 03-02-2013, 09:04 PM    (permalink
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Gabbert would be coming out this year under normal circumstances, (as his position coach mentioned), with a good chance of being the top overall pick. Probably half the QBs in this class are older than he is. If you wind the clock back two years, none of the prospects this year was even on the radar, aside from Matt Barkley. Griffin III had a fourth round grade from the Draft Advisory Board in 2011, which was why he opted not to come out after three years. They recommended that he consider switching postions to WR. Gabbert hasn't become a less valuable commodity over the past two years than he was in 2011. He has two years pro experience, has survived just about every obstacle football throws at a developing quarterback, from multiple coaches, play schemes, lame duck adminstration, constant talk of relocation, teammates quitting after they got paid, highest IR rate in the league both seasons he has been in Jacksonville, highest drop rate for QBs averaged over his two seasons in the league. Not to mention the constant sniping from keyboard heros like Mike Lombardi, Greg Cosell, Evan Silva, etc.
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Old 03-02-2013, 10:19 PM    (permalink
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Gabbert would be coming out this year under normal circumstances, (as his position coach mentioned), with a good chance of being the top overall pick.
Pure speculation. Barkley was well ahead of Gabbert in 2011, even in the conversation with Luck and Griffin at some point, and then because of 2012 people suddenly don't like Barkley anymore. And all the senior QBs saw their stocks drop because of "inconsistencies". The same could have happened to Gabbert. One more season at Missouri could have exposed Gabbert's flaws and make people question his development and transition to the NFL. Gabbert is entering his 3rd season in the league and he still can't read the defense. If you watch the coaches film from NFL Game Pass you'll see how bad he is.
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Old 03-02-2013, 10:22 PM    (permalink
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I think it was said best by Brian Billick when regarding this class. He had Barkley as the 3rd QB in the class I believe and said he'd make a great Back up for some team in the NFL in say the 3rd/4th round.
Then it's no surprise Billick is out of the league because he did not have a QB. This is just ridiculous. With the amount of bad QBs the NFL displayed this past season, some team will be very lucky to have Barkley on the roster.
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Old 03-02-2013, 10:30 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Roddoliver View Post
Pure speculation. Barkley was well ahead of Gabbert in 2011, even in the conversation with Luck and Griffin at some point, and then because of 2012 people suddenly don't like Barkley anymore. And all the senior QBs saw their stocks drop because of "inconsistencies". The same could have happened to Gabbert. One more season at Missouri could have exposed Gabbert's flaws and make people question his development and transition to the NFL. Gabbert is entering his 3rd season in the league and he still can't read the defense. If you watch the coaches film from NFL Game Pass you'll see how bad he is.
The fans and the media have killed Gabbert from the time he declared for the draft. The coaches and managers, who get paid for their expertise and have their credibility on the line, support him. Somehow I don't think that will change soon. I'll go with the guys who walk the walk every day.
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Old 03-02-2013, 10:40 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by raphael View Post
The fans and the media have killed Gabbert from the time he declared for the draft. The coaches and managers, who get paid for their expertise and have their credibility on the line, support him. Somehow I don't think that will change soon. I'll go with the guys who walk the walk every day.
The coaches and managers who needed a franchise QB and passed on Gabbert: Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and Redskins. They walk the walk and walked the hell away from him. The manager that drafted Gabbert was subsequently fired because of poor drafts. And now let's see what happens to Gabbert with this new regime. I remember guys who get paid for their expertise saying things like "I have Gabbert as my #1 QB in this class, though I must admit I haven't watched much tape yet." Time will tell if Jacksonville has a franchise QB. I don't think they do.
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Old 03-02-2013, 11:02 PM    (permalink
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Did I just see someone quote Brian Billick? As if he knows what a good QB looks like.
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Old 03-02-2013, 11:12 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Roddoliver View Post
The coaches and managers who needed a franchise QB and passed on Gabbert: Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans and Redskins. They walk the walk and walked the hell away from him. The manager that drafted Gabbert was subsequently fired because of poor drafts. And now let's see what happens to Gabbert with this new regime. I remember guys who get paid for their expertise saying things like "I have Gabbert as my #1 QB in this class, though I must admit I haven't watched much tape yet." Time will tell if Jacksonville has a franchise QB. I don't think they do.
LOL, I don't think the picks of Dareus, A.J. Green, Patrick Petersen, Aldon Smith, Ryan Kerrigan + others, were exactly "anyone but Gabbert" choices. Those players have justified their selection at the spots they were taken, and the 49ers and Bengals (both of whom had established veteran starters) were obviously targeting longer term guys later in the draft at the QB position. Bills gave a huge contract to Fitzpatrick, I'm sure they wouldn't have done that if they were looking to replace him immediately. Blaine was ranked right around #10 overall on pretty much every big board I saw of that draft. Which was exactly where he went. He was jumped by a couple of quarterbacks who weren't as highly rated in Newton and Locker, but that becomes an individual team preference. The guy who picked Newton got fired as well, not sure about the guy who picked Locker, but if he didn't get fired he probably will soon.

edit - Yeah, looking at the Titans it looks like the guy who drafted Locker has been fired as well. Both of them fired before Gene Smith was.

Last edited by raphael : 03-02-2013 at 11:19 PM. Reason: additional info
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