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View Poll Results: Where will Alex Smith be next season
Buffalo 5 4.63%
Cleveland 10 9.26%
Kansas City 47 43.52%
Jacksonville 6 5.56%
Arizona 25 23.15%
NY Jets 10 9.26%
Other: Who 5 4.63%
Voters: 108. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-03-2013, 10:21 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith has never thrown for 20 TDs in a season, and I doubt he'll do that here when he's asked to throw it a hell of a lot more than in SF.

3100 yards, 17 TDs, 12 ints. And that is the ceiling I think.
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Old 03-03-2013, 11:05 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
Reid is going to put more burden on Smith's shoulders than he has ever had. Smith is a very good bus driver, but I can't see him carrying a team on his back. Assuming he stays healthy for the entire season (quite a dubious assumption), he'll have career highs in yards and INTs.

He'll flirt with 4,000 yards, throw 19 TDs, 17 INTs, Chiefs go 6-10.
3870 yards, 25 TDs, 17 INTs. Chiefs go 9-7/8-8.
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Old 03-03-2013, 11:35 AM    (permalink
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Reid is a QB guru. I think Alex will do alot better than people think.


~4200 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs.

Chiefs will go 12-4 and compete for a wild-card spot or maybe pull ahead of the Broncos for the division if Manning has a down year.

And if they don't win the division this coming year, they will definitely run that division from 2014 and beyond.
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Old 03-03-2013, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Reid is a QB guru. I think Alex will do alot better than people think.


~4200 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs.

Chiefs will go 12-4 and compete for a wild-card spot or maybe pull ahead of the Broncos for the division if Manning has a down year.

And if they don't win the division this coming year, they will definitely run that division from 2014 and beyond.
Wow. WOW.

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Old 03-03-2013, 11:38 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by AcheTen View Post
Reid is a QB guru. I think Alex will do alot better than people think.


~4200 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs.

Chiefs will go 12-4 and compete for a wild-card spot or maybe pull ahead of the Broncos for the division if Manning has a down year.

And if they don't win the division this coming year, they will definitely run that division from 2014 and beyond.
lolwut. So in an offense that asks him to throw a lot more than he did in SF (which is a bad thing for a QB like him), he's not only going to break his yardage mark by 1100 yards, but he's going to break his TD mark by 16? The most he's ever thrown in a year is 18, so he's going to almost double that?

I'll have what you're having.
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Old 03-03-2013, 11:42 AM    (permalink
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lolwut. So in an offense that asks him to throw a lot more than he did in SF (which is a bad thing for a QB like him), he's not only going to break his yardage mark by 1100 yards, but he's going to break his TD mark by 16? The most he's ever thrown in a year is 18, so he's going to almost double that?

I'll have what you're having.
Just...just...it's so...wow.

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Old 03-03-2013, 11:56 AM    (permalink
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Alex Smith has never thrown for 20 TDs in a season, and I doubt he'll do that here when he's asked to throw it a hell of a lot more than in SF.
He had 18 in 11 games in 2009, 14 in 11 games in 2010, and 13 in 10 games in 2012. That's a 16 game pace of 26, 20, and 21 in those three seasons. Assuming he starts 16 games next season, 17 TD's is closer to his floor than his ceiling. I just don't see how you can argue that he'll throw more pass, but less touchdowns. Looking at your projection, and estimating a very conservative 6.5 ypa, you think his ceiling is a TD on 3.5% of his passes? That would be the third worst total of his career.

Kevin Kolb threw 1.3 TD per game. Chad Henne and Christian Ponder threw 1.1 per game. Brandon Weedon, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert all threw 0.9 per game. Yet, Alex Smith's ceiling is 1.06 per game? Smith is going to a team where he's going to have good offensive line, a stud running back, the best receiver he's ever had, and a coach who has a pretty good track record with quarterbacks, but his ceiling is bottom 5-7 starter in the league? I just can't see that.

I understand the frustration. I understand the Chiefs way overpaid. I just don't see anything, other than extreme pessimism, to indicate that Smith's play will resemble years 1-3 more closely than years 4-5.
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Old 03-03-2013, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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P-L, please don't use logic when I'm pissed off. That doesn't help anything!

But you're right, I'm assuming he'll miss some time. The Chiefs offensive line has the potential to be good, but it isn't there yet, and if Albert walks who knows.

If Bowe walks his WR corp would be: Jon Baldwin, Dexter McCluster, Devon Wylie, and Tony Moeaki. That doesn't scare anyone.

Yeah he'll have Jamaal Charles, who is a top 5 back in the NFL, but Smith will be asked to do a lot more than what he has done. Your stats are correct, but he was in an offense that masked his deficiencies instead of promoting his strengths. In this offense he'll be asked to use his arm more to move the ball instead of what he's used to. I do think his INTs will go up quite a bit in this system.
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Old 03-03-2013, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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He had 18 in 11 games in 2009, 14 in 11 games in 2010, and 13 in 10 games in 2012. That's a 16 game pace of 26, 20, and 21 in those three seasons. Assuming he starts 16 games next season, 17 TD's is closer to his floor than his ceiling. I just don't see how you can argue that he'll throw more pass, but less touchdowns. Looking at your projection, and estimating a very conservative 6.5 ypa, you think his ceiling is a TD on 3.5% of his passes? That would be the third worst total of his career.

Kevin Kolb threw 1.3 TD per game. Chad Henne and Christian Ponder threw 1.1 per game. Brandon Weedon, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert all threw 0.9 per game. Yet, Alex Smith's ceiling is 1.06 per game? Smith is going to a team where he's going to have good offensive line, a stud running back, the best receiver he's ever had, and a coach who has a pretty good track record with quarterbacks, but his ceiling is bottom 5-7 starter in the league? I just can't see that.

I understand the frustration. I understand the Chiefs way overpaid. I just don't see anything, other than extreme pessimism, to indicate that Smith's play will resemble years 1-3 more closely than years 4-5.
Hes playing for the Chiefs....... So thats a start.

And the second paragraph is way off base in regards to that team.
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Old 03-03-2013, 01:00 PM    (permalink
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I've never really been a Smith fan, but one encouraging thing about him is that he's improved every year for the past four years. His y/a and rating have increased each season since Nolan was fired. If he continues the upward trajectory, the price tag will have been worth it.
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Old 03-03-2013, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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vidae, don't be so mad at what you gave up. most 2nd round picks don't help their team, J-mike said so!
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Old 03-03-2013, 02:50 PM    (permalink
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Can we get an updated version of that graphic including what Kaep did in the playoffs? This is the only place I could find snap count totals so that old graphic is off.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts
That graphic includes the Jets and Bills games, 245 and 311 yards rushing in each game. Thats 556 yards combined, probably at a clip of about 5 or 6 YPC.

Now, are we rushing for these historically gaudy numbers because Alex is some clairvoyant pre-snap QB? Of course not, to suggest that Alex was some sort of primary reason for those rushing outbursts is laughable at best.

In fact i think it speaks bad for Alex that at his very best of his 8 year 80 start NFL career, including historical rushing outbursts that nobody rationally would say he was primarily responsible for, the offense was barely outplaying a raw 2nd year player who was getting his feet wet.

And thats ignoring other factors like the injury to Kendall Hunter, Gore slowing down in the 2nd half of the season.

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Old 03-03-2013, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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And thats ignoring other factors like the injury to Kendall Hunter.
I looked into this. Kendall Hunter this year was mostly just cleaning up games with garbage yards cause Smith was solid if unspectacular and the 49ers had good leads.
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Old 03-03-2013, 05:06 PM    (permalink
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Reid is a QB guru. I think Alex will do alot better than people think.


~4200 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs.

Chiefs will go 12-4 and compete for a wild-card spot or maybe pull ahead of the Broncos for the division if Manning has a down year.

And if they don't win the division this coming year, they will definitely run that division from 2014 and beyond.
This is why we can't have nice things.

I thought Harbaugh was the QB guru who was going to raise Smith's game, which he did, now there is another whole level that Reid is going to take Smith too? Just imagine what will happen when Sean Payton gets his hands on him after Reid is done with him, Smith will be John Elway by then.
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Old 03-03-2013, 05:09 PM    (permalink
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I looked into this. Kendall Hunter this year was mostly just cleaning up games with garbage yards cause Smith was solid if unspectacular and the 49ers had good leads.
These same rushing yards were just as used as a defense for Alex (in the "entire offense" graphic).....now they're garbage when it comes to bringing up impact he would brought with Colin...

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Old 03-03-2013, 06:35 PM    (permalink
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vidae, don't be so mad at what you gave up. most 2nd round picks don't help their team, J-mike said so!
Haha Scotty... beam me up.
Let us ax you, in your definition, what does "MOST" mean?
More than 50%? OK, that's a typical baseline.

If I am not mistaken, we are talking about QB's in this thread, and Alex Smith is the former #1 overall QB taken in 2005.

Let's take a FACTUAL look back at 2nd rd QBs taken since Drew Brees was taken pick 32 in 2001 (and then given away by the Chargers 4 years later).

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Andy Dalton (Bengals), 2011
Colin Kaepernick (49ers), 2011
Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006

*No quarterbacks were drafted in the second round of the 2002-2005 drafts.

Second-round quarterbacks between Brees and Favre in 1991:

Quincy Carter (Cowboys), 2001 - 34 starts
Marques Tuiasosopo (Raiders), 2001 - 2 starts
Shaun King (Bucs), 1999 - 24 starts
Charlie Batch (Lions), 1998 - 53 starts
Jake Plummer (Cardinals) - 136 starts
Tony Banks (Rams), 1996 - 78 starts
Todd Collins (Bills), 1995 - 21 starts
Kordell Stewart (Steelers), 1995 - 87 starts, career 77:84 TD-to-INT ratio
Matt Blundin (Chiefs), 1992 - 0 starts
Tony Sacca (Cardinals), 1992 - 0 starts

Favre was the 33rd overall pick in the 1991 draft. Like Brees, he proved to be no franchise QB for the team who selected him as he was traded to Green Bay after his rookie season.

If you generously include Plummer and rush to crown Dalton, the NFL is 3-for-22 on second-round signal callers in the past 20 drafts.

WHAT SAY YOU SCOTTY BOY?
You say most 2nd rd chosen QB's are hits?


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Old 03-03-2013, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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Why does the 2nd rounder have to be a QB again? If the Chiefs don't trade for Smith they would have probably used the #1 on a QB instead of that 2nd rounder.
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Old 03-03-2013, 06:59 PM    (permalink
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Haha Scotty... beam me up.
Let us ax you, in your definition, what does "MOST" mean?
More than 50%? OK, that's a typical baseline.

If I am not mistaken, we are talking about QB's in this thread, and Alex Smith is the former #1 overall QB taken in 2005.

Let's take a FACTUAL look back at 2nd rd QBs taken since Drew Brees was taken pick 32 in 2001 (and then given away by the Chargers 4 years later).

Second-round quarterbacks since Brees:

Andy Dalton (Bengals), 2011
Colin Kaepernick (49ers), 2011
Jimmy Clausen (Panthers), 2010
Pat White (Dolphins), 2009
Brian Brohm (Packers), 2008
Chad Henne (Dolphins), 2008
Kevin Kolb (Eagles), 2007
John Beck (Dolphins), 2007
Drew Stanton (Lions), 2007
Kellen Clemens (Jets), 2006
Tarvaris Jackson (Vikings), 2006

*No quarterbacks were drafted in the second round of the 2002-2005 drafts.

Second-round quarterbacks between Brees and Favre in 1991:

Quincy Carter (Cowboys), 2001 - 34 starts
Marques Tuiasosopo (Raiders), 2001 - 2 starts
Shaun King (Bucs), 1999 - 24 starts
Charlie Batch (Lions), 1998 - 53 starts
Jake Plummer (Cardinals) - 136 starts
Tony Banks (Rams), 1996 - 78 starts
Todd Collins (Bills), 1995 - 21 starts
Kordell Stewart (Steelers), 1995 - 87 starts, career 77:84 TD-to-INT ratio
Matt Blundin (Chiefs), 1992 - 0 starts
Tony Sacca (Cardinals), 1992 - 0 starts

Favre was the 33rd overall pick in the 1991 draft. Like Brees, he proved to be no franchise QB for the team who selected him as he was traded to Green Bay after his rookie season.

If you generously include Plummer and rush to crown Dalton, the NFL is 3-for-22 on second-round signal callers in the past 20 drafts.

WHAT SAY YOU SCOTTY BOY?
You say most 2nd rd chosen QB's are hits?


this entire post is irrelevant just due to the simple fact that if Alex Smith wasn't traded for, it would have meant KC would take Geno first overall.

Also, the talent level of prospects selected in the second round has always been high.

Another funny thing is, the only difference(to me) between Kaep and Smith last season is that Kaep added his ability to run. Defenses respected him due to that. Passing the ball wasn't any different.

Reid has always gone against the norm. He will always be credited for FINDING TALENTED guys and letting them preform in his system. Doesn't mean McNabb wasn't talented. He is credited for taking him when no one else would.

Again, Reid took McNabb over guys who were MUCH MORE talented than he was. Reid values good qb play. He understands it is a greater need than having someone more talented at another position. You just have to trust him.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:04 PM    (permalink
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It's funny that he spent all that time constructing that comeback post when it has no relevance whatsoever.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson... 2nd Rounders are worthless. You should know!
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:06 PM    (permalink
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this entire post is irrelevant just due to the simple fact that if Alex Smith wasn't traded for, it would have meant KC would take Geno first overall.

Also, the talent level of prospects selected in the second round has always been high.

Another funny thing is, the only difference(to me) between Kaep and Smith last season is that Kaep added his ability to run. Defenses respected him due to that. Passing the ball wasn't any different.

Reid has always gone against the norm. He will always be credited for FINDING TALENTED guys and letting them preform in his system. Doesn't mean McNabb wasn't talented. He is credited for taking him when no one else would.

Again, Reid took McNabb over guys who were MUCH MORE talented than he was. Reid values good qb play. He understands it is a greater need than having someone more talented at another position. You just have to trust him.
Might seem like this by looking at stat lines, but as a niner fan trust me, this is NOT true.

Kap throws such a better deep ball than alex it's not even funny. Completely changed our offense.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:26 PM    (permalink
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Lololololololol oh jmike. I love how you changed it to 2nd round qbs. I was talking about the value of 2nd rounders as a whole, not qbs. But hey, change it around for your own sake. Oh boy this thread. Ohhhh boy
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, I never got the whole "Kaepernick adds the dimension of running."

Alex Smith ran the same college offense, essentially, and could run the read option just as well as anyone.

The change had nothing to do with Kaep running. His arm brings more options to the passing game.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:36 PM    (permalink
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Kaepernick has a considerably better arm and it made a big difference in how the 49ers passing game attacked. They could now challenge deeper throws. Kaepernick made more splash plays and made more out of nothing more often. With Smith the offense, had to manufacture shot plays.

Kaepernick is a considerably better NFL runner as well. He is just a step up as an athlete and thats why he runs the read option better.
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Old 03-03-2013, 07:52 PM    (permalink
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jmike pls
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