Draft Countdown Forums

Go Back   Draft Countdown Forums > Draft Countdown Forums > 2014 NFL Draft Forum

2014 NFL Draft Forum Discuss the 2014 NFL Draft

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-09-2013, 04:09 PM    (permalink
soybean
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: anaheim - home of the...ducks?
Posts: 9,998
Reputation: 307973
soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.soybean is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Armchair Scout View Post
Matt Scott couldn't beat out Nick Foles for playing time in Arizona; I doubt he will beat Foles out for a roster spot in the NFL.
Joe Flacco couldn't beat out Tyler Palko.
soybean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
BallerT1215
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South Florida
Posts: 7,240
Reputation: 1824401
BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by soybean View Post
Joe Flacco couldn't beat out Tyler Palko.
+Rep I always think of this with Flacco. And then I remind myself thats why Wannestedt sucks.
__________________

Sig by the King BK


Fear the Spear - Winston Era has begun....
Quote:
"I wasn't going to lose to Miami, no matter what," Freeman said. "It means a lot to go out there and beat them. Every time I get a chance, I want to destroy them."
BallerT1215 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:19 PM    (permalink
Armchair Scout
Rookie
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 71
Reputation: 53452
Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Armchair Scout is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by soybean View Post
Joe Flacco couldn't beat out Tyler Palko.
Fair point. But Flacco never actually got a real chance to play in actual games. And Matt Scott did stick around and end up succeeding Foles as Arizona's starting QB and being much less productive than Foles was the previous year despite no real drop-off in talent from the rest of the offense.
Armchair Scout is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:26 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
You have to slot your draft prospects/picks based on how they're potentially viewed around the league in terms of value. Otherwise you overdraft guys who have much greater value for your team in lower rounds.

There are going to be guys available in the 6th/7th/UDFAs like Robert Marve and Jordan Rodgers who are mobile with streaky accuracy and good arms who can run Chip Kelly's offense effectively that don't require way overdrafting someone like Matt Scott.
You slot prospects based off how you perceive they may be valued around the league? That'd be asinine. The idea of scouting is to analyze the players and evaluate who fits best with the system you run and try to build the best team possible. Only people like us on message boards use the term "overdrafted" but teams, for the most part, are following their boards and picking players at where they value them.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:44 PM    (permalink
Black Bolt
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 2,103
Reputation: 143066
Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Black Bolt is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Hey Prince, NO.
Black Bolt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:51 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,417
Reputation: 1183720
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

No one drafts a QB universally considered to be a 4th round prospect in the top 5 overall because he 'fits' your scheme.

A shrewd GM also considers how long a player is likely to be available in the draft before taking him.

Drafting is about slotting players on more factors than how individually talented they are.

Chip Kelly first needs to rebuild that leaky Eagles Oline that almost got Mike Vick decapitated last season.

So what makes more sense?? Drafting one of the three top LT prospects who will all be gone no later than the 15 pick in the draft??

Or overreaching for a project QB because he happens to be fit for a hybrid offensive scheme??

I don't care how perfect a fit Matt Scott may be for Kelly's offense, he's a poor value in the first round.

Knowing player value in the draft is the reason why Jim Harbaugh was able to select both Aldon Smith AND Colin Kaepernick in the same draft in 2011.

If Harbaugh had overdrafted CK he would have missed out on Aldon Smith.
Harbaugh may have felt Kaepernick was a 1st round talent, but he knew almost no other team in the league felt the same way, so he waited and made the right call in round 2.

Why do you think GMs call around the league to get a feel for what other teams think about certain prospects???

Most of all, I don't think Chip Kelly thinks Matt Scott is the 4th best prospect overall in the draft, regardless of position or need.
That's why he won't draft him in the first round.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 04:55 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

FUNBUNCHER, if you read my original post I never suggested that Matt Scott goes 4th overall. If you read I suggest the possibility that no quarterback goes in the Top 10 and we don't see a QB selected until the bottom part of round one where teams trade up to select the signal caller they like. That's where I ask about the idea of Matt Scott possibly being the first QB off the board if Philadelphia were to trade up and select him before Geno or anyone else has been.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:04 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,417
Reputation: 1183720
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

If no QB is selected in first 25 picks, why would Philly feel pressed to trade up into the bottom of the first to take Scott??

It's not like another team is going to jump the Eagles to take him.
If I were the GM for the Eagles, I wouldn't even consider drafting Scott until Geno Smith/Barkley/Glennon/Bray are off the board, since I know 99% of NFL teams value them more than Scott.

Why take the guy at the bottom of the first round after trading up if he's still going to be available in the 5th/6th round??

Just because no QB is drafted in the first doesn't mean Philly should reach for Scott.

I guarantee you if other teams are trading up into the bottom of the first to draft QBs, NONE of them are doing so to target Matt Scott.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:18 PM    (permalink
Robcards
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,799
Reputation: 167514
Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
You slot prospects based off how you perceive they may be valued around the league? That'd be asinine. The idea of scouting is to analyze the players and evaluate who fits best with the system you run and try to build the best team possible. Only people like us on message boards use the term "overdrafted" but teams, for the most part, are following their boards and picking players at where they value them.
This is the most ludicrous statement I've seen in a while. It's common sense and if you've ever done a fantasy draft you should understand this very basic concept of game theory. If a player's ADP is in the 30s, regardless of how highly you think of him, if you have let's say picks 5, 16, and 25, you would NEVER use pick 5 or 16 on that player. EVER. It's just an insanely negative EV move, and the same applies ten-fold for the NFL draft. Even when a team "reaches" there's a very slim chance that the player they reached for would have been there when they picked again. Even if the Eagles used their 2nd round pick on Matt Scott, this would not be the case, as he'd be there for them in the 3rd <95% of the time.
Robcards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:21 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Geno Smith appears to be the top quarterback on most teams boards, but when you talk about him, Barkley, Manuel, Nassib, Bray, Glennon and Wilson, they have done nothing during the off-season to separate themselves from the competition and a team can't bank on the quarterbacks being selected in a specific order and Scott's stock seems to be gaining momentum. I recognize the possibility isn't likely, but I think it's a topic worth discussing that a player like Matt Scott and a fit like Philadelphia might vault him to be one of the first QBs taken.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:24 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
This is the most ludicrous statement I've seen in a while. It's common sense and if you've ever done a fantasy draft you should understand this very basic concept of game theory. If a player's ADP is in the 30s, regardless of how highly you think of him, if you have let's say picks 5, 16, and 25, you would NEVER use pick 5 or 16 on that player. EVER. It's just an insanely negative EV move, and the same applies ten-fold for the NFL draft. Even when a team "reaches" there's a very slim chance that the player they reached for would have been there when they picked again. Even if the Eagles used their 2nd round pick on Matt Scott, this would not be the case, as he'd be there for them in the 3rd <95% of the time.
The NFL Draft is so different than a fantasy draft.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:26 PM    (permalink
Robcards
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,799
Reputation: 167514
Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
The NFL Draft is so different than a fantasy draft.
Not the part I was referring to, no. If a player is going to be there when you pick again most of the time, it is a grave mistake to take him with your current pick. I'm not really sure why you think it isn't.

Perfect example: The Jets brass stated they had 1st round grades on Kenrick Ellis in 2011. Did they use their 1st round pick on him because of that? Of course not, because they knew he'd likely be there when they picked in the 3rd. It's just common sense.
Robcards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:33 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
Not the part I was referring to, no. If a player is going to be there when you pick again most of the time, it is a grave mistake to take him with your current pick. I'm not really sure why you think it isn't.

Perfect example: The Jets brass stated they had 1st round grades on Kenrick Ellis in 2011. Did they use their 1st round pick on him because of that? Of course not, because they knew he'd likely be there when they picked in the 3rd. It's just common sense.
That's not what I'm arguing. If Matt Scott is lead on the Eagles board, whether it's late in round one or when they pick in round two, they're not going to say gosh most teams have him slatted as a 4th rounder so I think we can wait till next round or even the 4th to select him.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:36 PM    (permalink
Robcards
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,799
Reputation: 167514
Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
That's not what I'm arguing. If Matt Scott is lead on the Eagles board, whether it's late in round one or when they pick in round two, they're not going to say gosh most teams have him slatted as a 4th rounder so I think we can wait till next round or even the 4th to select him.
What? Yes that's exactly what they'll say LOL
Robcards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:38 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
What? Yes that's exactly what they'll say LOL
Then what good is a big board?
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:43 PM    (permalink
Robcards
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,799
Reputation: 167514
Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by princefielder28 View Post
Then what good is a big board?
If team's simply took the highest player on their big board when it was their turn to pick then we could do the whole draft in an hour. There's a whole lot more than just a big board. If for example, 4 QBs get taken in round 1 then they may have to re-think their ideas about when Scott would be available, etc. You have to account for much more than just your rankings of the players when you pick.
Robcards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:44 PM    (permalink
nepg
All-NFLDC
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 14,860
Reputation: 1677310
nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.nepg is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

No, but he could be a good fit for a team that wants to run the read option. I'd project him to Philly from Round 4 on.
__________________
nepg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 05:58 PM    (permalink
Cigaro
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Two-thirds of the Earth is covered by water, the other one-third is covered by Luke Kuechly
Posts: 10,085
Reputation: 2319405
Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Cigaro is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

I'm not sure what argument is worse; that Matt Scott would be the first quarterback taken, or that NFL teams don't consider other team's evaluations when deciding on whether or not to take a player with the x pick.

Here's a simple question prince, why do teams trade up?
__________________


Sig by Matthew Jones
Cigaro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 06:44 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
Team Leader
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 11,298
Reputation: 2415222
Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
This is the most ludicrous statement I've seen in a while. It's common sense and if you've ever done a fantasy draft you should understand this very basic concept of game theory. If a player's ADP is in the 30s, regardless of how highly you think of him, if you have let's say picks 5, 16, and 25, you would NEVER use pick 5 or 16 on that player. EVER. It's just an insanely negative EV move, and the same applies ten-fold for the NFL draft. Even when a team "reaches" there's a very slim chance that the player they reached for would have been there when they picked again. Even if the Eagles used their 2nd round pick on Matt Scott, this would not be the case, as he'd be there for them in the 3rd <95% of the time.
While I don't agree with the notion of taking Matt Scott as the first QB off the board. How does one exactly determine ADP in an actual NFL draft. There isn't one because once they are drafted that is it they are drafted and their ADP becomes what they were drafted at regardless of if it was "proper value" or not. You could use mock drafts I suppose but usually by pick 15 even the most accurate mock drafts fall asunder due to trades are shocker picks. It is the whole reason why there are reaches and steals in the first place. Even if princefielder is right about this he never said it was a good idea. It wouldn't be the first time that a team took a multi round reach on a player.

See Mike Mitchell, Jonas Mouton, Dan Bazuin, Christian Ponder those are just the one that come to me from the top of my head.
__________________
Stafford Sig by touchdownrams the rest of the sig by Sig Master Bone Krusher Avy by King of all avys renji


DEATH NOTE MAFIA SIGNUP!

Quote:
Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
Brothgar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 06:49 PM    (permalink
WCH
Pro Bowler
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,722
Reputation: 3189776
WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothgar View Post
While I don't agree with the notion of taking Matt Scott as the first QB off the board. How does one exactly determine ADP in an actual NFL draft. There isn't one because once they are drafted that is it they are drafted and their ADP becomes what they were drafted at regardless of if it was "proper value" or not. You could use mock drafts I suppose but usually by pick 15 even the most accurate mock drafts fall asunder due to trades are shocker picks. It is the whole reason why there are reaches and steals in the first place. Even if princefielder is right about this he never said it was a good idea. It wouldn't be the first time that a team took a multi round reach on a player.

See Mike Mitchell, Jonas Mouton, Dan Bazuin, Christian Ponder those are just the one that come to me from the top of my head.
The Packer boards went batshit insane when they took Nick Collins in the second round. Everybody was pissed because he was "poor value."
WCH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 06:50 PM    (permalink
Robcards
Veteran
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,799
Reputation: 167514
Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Robcards is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothgar View Post
While I don't agree with the notion of taking Matt Scott as the first QB off the board. How does one exactly determine ADP in an actual NFL draft. There isn't one because once they are drafted that is it they are drafted and their ADP becomes what they were drafted at regardless of if it was "proper value" or not. You could use mock drafts I suppose but usually by pick 15 even the most accurate mock drafts fall asunder due to trades are shocker picks. It is the whole reason why there are reaches and steals in the first place. Even if princefielder is right about this he never said it was a good idea. It wouldn't be the first time that a team took a multi round reach on a player.

See Mike Mitchell, Jonas Mouton, Dan Bazuin, Christian Ponder those are just the one that come to me from the top of my head.
Not familiar with the other names but there is no doubt that Ponder would have been taken before the Vikings picked again. His projection was early 2nd. That doesn't negate my point at all.

And to answer your question, it doesn't take a genius to know a prospect's expected round. I am quite certain that each team has a pretty good idea of where a prospect will get taken should they pass on him.

Last edited by Robcards : 03-09-2013 at 06:52 PM.
Robcards is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 07:04 PM    (permalink
fredder
Veteran
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 866
Reputation: 357704
fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.fredder is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brothgar View Post
While I don't agree with the notion of taking Matt Scott as the first QB off the board. How does one exactly determine ADP in an actual NFL draft. There isn't one because once they are drafted that is it they are drafted and their ADP becomes what they were drafted at regardless of if it was "proper value" or not. You could use mock drafts I suppose but usually by pick 15 even the most accurate mock drafts fall asunder due to trades are shocker picks. It is the whole reason why there are reaches and steals in the first place. Even if princefielder is right about this he never said it was a good idea. It wouldn't be the first time that a team took a multi round reach on a player.

See Mike Mitchell, Jonas Mouton, Dan Bazuin, Christian Ponder those are just the one that come to me from the top of my head.
Just substitute ADP with where you perceive they're valued by the rest of the league. Obviously it's not 100% accurate but the same can be said about using ADP to guess where a player will be taken in your fantasy draft. The basic idea of his argument is that you gain value by waiting as long as you can because with your earlier picks you can get higher ranked players.

For example if the Eagles have Matt Scott #1 on their board and Luke Joeckel #2 and Joeckel is available at #4 then obviously you take Joeckel and then take Scott in the 2nd so you get both players instead of Scott and a random 2nd rounder.

Also am I the only one who thinks there's a chance that Kelly doesn't run a read-option offense in the pros? I think it will be a quick tempo spread offense but as the Patrioits showed, with concepts from Kelly himself, it isn't necessary to have a rushing QB.
fredder is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 07:35 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
Team Leader
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 11,298
Reputation: 2415222
Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robcards View Post
Not familiar with the other names but there is no doubt that Ponder would have been taken before the Vikings picked again. His projection was early 2nd. That doesn't negate my point at all.

And to answer your question, it doesn't take a genius to know a prospect's expected round. I am quite certain that each team has a pretty good idea of where a prospect will get taken should they pass on him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by fredder View Post
Just substitute ADP with where you perceive they're valued by the rest of the league. Obviously it's not 100% accurate but the same can be said about using ADP to guess where a player will be taken in your fantasy draft. The basic idea of his argument is that you gain value by waiting as long as you can because with your earlier picks you can get higher ranked players.

For example if the Eagles have Matt Scott #1 on their board and Luke Joeckel #2 and Joeckel is available at #4 then obviously you take Joeckel and then take Scott in the 2nd so you get both players instead of Scott and a random 2nd rounder.

Also am I the only one who thinks there's a chance that Kelly doesn't run a read-option offense in the pros? I think it will be a quick tempo spread offense but as the Patrioits showed, with concepts from Kelly himself, it isn't necessary to have a rushing QB.
Ponder was a stretch but Mike Mitchell was a guy generally thought to go in the 7th round by every analyst pundit and draftnic in the country. He got selected in round 2 by the raiders and would have been picked in round 2 by the bears. Jonas Mouton was a 2nd round draft pick by the San Diego Chargers. Generally thought of as a 5th round guy. The point is that every draft board is different specially once you get out of rounds 1 and 2 but even within rounds 1 and 2. The notion that any team has any idea how another team's draft board works out is just not accurate. If the Eagles have Matt Scott as a second round talent and he falls to the third or they scout him as a first round talent and he falls to the second then what they believe is any other team's draft board becomes irrelevant. Another name that comes to mind is John McCargo who the Bills traded up into the first round for who was easily perceived to be there when the Bills picked next (iirc) a good 5 to 10 picks later.
__________________
Stafford Sig by touchdownrams the rest of the sig by Sig Master Bone Krusher Avy by King of all avys renji


DEATH NOTE MAFIA SIGNUP!

Quote:
Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
Brothgar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 08:19 PM    (permalink
Iamcanadian
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Wallaceburg, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 12,110
Reputation: 287181
Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Iamcanadian is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

My guess is he is a 4th rounder.
__________________
And proud of it!!!
Iamcanadian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2013, 08:30 PM    (permalink
princefielder28
Legend
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Green Bay, WI
Posts: 26,811
Reputation: 1601528
princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.princefielder28 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cigaro View Post
I'm not sure what argument is worse; that Matt Scott would be the first quarterback taken, or that NFL teams don't consider other team's evaluations when deciding on whether or not to take a player with the x pick.

Here's a simple question prince, why do teams trade up?
Trading up for a player is far different than passing on a player because you bank on a player being available the next time you pick.

And to clarify for the third time, I am not trying to make the argument that Scott will be the first quarterback taken; just trying to generate discussion on the possibility that he may be taken higher than most think.
__________________


Follow me on Twitter! http://twitter.com/#!/aMo_Captain
princefielder28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:43 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.