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Old 03-15-2013, 11:32 AM    (permalink
hockey619
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Andy Reid most probably doesn't want Geno because Reid is getting old and doesn't want to spend the time to develop a rookie QB when he feels he has a roster than can win right now.
so reid doesnt want him because hes getting old and wants to win now. but youre saying he thinks geno is better, its just hes gunna need a few years to get there and andy doesnt want to wait...
how long is reid staying with the chiefs, 3 years? what about the GM, so he must think they can win with the same roster that won 2 games by adding a game manager veteran? the same roster that cost his predecessor his job? he must be thinking short term too, must be looking to get a SB ring and then retire.

because if thats not what you think is going on, then why would reid pass on a guy he thinks is a franchise QB for alex smith, whose ~8 years older and less physically talented than Geno?

its because he thinks geno wont be better than alex. if he thought geno would be, hed be drafting him. i dont see a more logical line of thought on this anywhere in this thread, these reasons you and Black Bolt have thrown out for reid passing on Geno make no sense if they thought Geno was better.

Quote:
'very little if any foundation to his mental game'?? Please explain.
You made this critique more than once.
Any QB who only throws 6 INTs on over 500 attempts and completes 7 out of every 10 passes he throws is processing the game correctly on some level.
stats. holy ****. get out. hes in a air raid offense. putting up stats in that doesnt matter at all, everyone does. he stares down targets constantly. he is brutally slow through progressions. hes has good physical tools. thats it right now

And come on, every QB who's played in college has thrown an ill advised INT.
Even Luck had the rare INT at Stanford where you wonder where his head was at when he threw the football. i dont remember luck having an INT where he stared down the target that bad then threw it anyway after giving the defense plenty of time to break on it. could be wrong, but i certainly dont recall, if youre thinking of one in particular let me know.
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Originally Posted by Black Bolt View Post
As far as that worse INT by top QB nonsense, a) regardless, it's exactly one INT and b) if you truly believe that, then you've probably watched as much football as my mother in Bermuda has.
it was a good example of a flaw in his game making him look very stupid. you can pass it off as its only one INT and not something he has a bad habit of doing, you can have your bias.

Look, I can't take you seriously any longer. I have been watching football for 30 years and there is little you can tell me based on your lack of knowledge. You really don't know what you are talking about and I am okay with that. You are cherry picking your overall assessment of Smith, completely ignoring a plethora of top level plays in the clip. That's your bias, and you can have it.
Ignoring top level plays? i said he made a nasty back shoulder throw right before the ball he forced, and ive been saying he has good physical tools.

im not the one ignoring obvious flaws in his game, you are. the problem is that hes never read a defense and he rarely makes progression reads. when he does, hes far too slow at it. those are major issues.




im ignoring the last paragraph. this isnt personal, were talking football, thats all, lets not turn this into some embarrassing internet fight. saying you cant take me seriously doesnt improve your argument but it does make you look immature, which if youre 35+ years old you dont need and neither do i. you dont like my point of view, have 3 decades of football knowledge, think im uninformed, incompetent, whatever thats fine. if you dont like my point of view, prove me wrong or ignore me.
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Orton will never be in the same class as the Drew Brees or the Peyton Mannings or the Tom Bradys of the world. Kevin Kolb has the potential to be that kind of player.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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Gus Bradley spent 90 minutes breaking down film with Geno after his pro day.
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Old 03-15-2013, 11:55 AM    (permalink
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Mayock is having it both ways to fill air time.

Being definitive leads to this.

Mike Mayock’s Top 5 Draft Prospects by Position
Quarterback:
1. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
2. Jake Locker, Washington
3. Cam Newton, Auburn
4. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
T-5. Andy Dalton, TCU
T-5. Ricky Stanzi, Iowa
T-5. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada
T-5. Pat Devlin, Delaware
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Old 03-15-2013, 12:19 PM    (permalink
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I don't think Reid's decision to go with ALex Smith and forgo Geno automatically assumes he believes Alex is 'better' than Geno, or that Alex has more upside than an unproven rookie.

Any NFL HC has to consider how long it's going to take to develop a rookie QB before he's capable of winning games consistently for a franchise. It's part of the reason why some pro prospects are called lock first rounders and franchise type QBs, and others are regarded as developmental prospects.

Even if Reid felt it would take two offseasons and one regular season to get Geno up to speed on the pro game, for an older HC who I believe expects to win a lot of football games this season, Alex Smith seems like the safer option.

It's not this black-and-white analysis where Reid believes that Alex SMith in total is a better QB short and longterm than Geno SMith.

Yes Reid thinks Alex Smith is the 'better' QB right now. What does that mean exactly??
It means Reid think Alex can come in after one offseason and run KC's offense
at a very efficient level and not lose games for the team.
It doesn't mean Reid believes Geno is untalented, not worth a first rounder or couldn't be the cornerstone of an NFL offense.

Geno detractors are using Andy's decision to pass on Geno as an indictment against Geno's chances for success in the pros or his overall ability, and IMO they aren't really related.

Whether or not the Chiefs pass on Geno has nothing at all to do with what kind of QB he's going to be in the NFL. It's not a red flag. Just one organization's evaluation of one player.

Reid chose not to gamble with a raw rookie and instead chose a known quantity in Alex Smith. Not much more going on than that.

Also schematically RG3 ran virtually the same Air Raid offense in college, minus a few components. For some guys yes spread offensive stats are inflated. For others they're an accurate reflection of the talent of the QB playing in that system.

Geno has a strong arm and is accurate downfield, two traits the typical spread QB of the past really didn't possess.
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Old 03-15-2013, 12:40 PM    (permalink
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so reid doesnt want him because hes getting old and wants to win now. but youre saying he thinks geno is better, its just hes gunna need a few years to get there and andy doesnt want to wait...
how long is reid staying with the chiefs, 3 years? what about the GM, so he must think they can win with the same roster that won 2 games by adding a game manager veteran? the same roster that cost his predecessor his job? he must be thinking short term too, must be looking to get a SB ring and then retire.

because if thats not what you think is going on, then why would reid pass on a guy he thinks is a franchise QB for alex smith, whose ~8 years older and less physically talented than Geno?

its because he thinks geno wont be better than alex. if he thought geno would be, hed be drafting him. i dont see a more logical line of thought on this anywhere in this thread, these reasons you and Black Bolt have thrown out for reid passing on Geno make no sense if they thought Geno was better.





Ignoring top level plays? i said he made a nasty back shoulder throw right before the ball he forced, and ive been saying he has good physical tools.

im not the one ignoring obvious flaws in his game, you are. the problem is that hes never read a defense and he rarely makes progression reads. when he does, hes far too slow at it. those are major issues.




im ignoring the last paragraph. this isnt personal, were talking football, thats all, lets not turn this into some embarrassing internet fight. saying you cant take me seriously doesnt improve your argument but it does make you look immature, which if youre 35+ years old you dont need and neither do i. you dont like my point of view, have 3 decades of football knowledge, think im uninformed, incompetent, whatever thats fine. if you dont like my point of view, prove me wrong or ignore me.
Like I said, you are cherrying picking, the information to fit your predetermined conclussion and it's so obvious. You are highlighting the flaws and supposed flaws and barely mentioning his numerous strengths. As far as Andy Reid, you have accepted ONE explanation and one explanation only as to why he chose to go with the young vet QB over the rookie, one that supports your bias. You won't even consider another plausible possibility even when it has been presented to you by at least two people. I don't have time for that sort of nonsense. Even the guys who get paid for their opinions are back tracking at the risk of looking foolish.
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Old 03-15-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
I don't think Reid's decision to go with ALex Smith and forgo Geno automatically assumes he believes Alex is 'better' than Geno, or that Alex has more upside than an unproven rookie.

Any NFL HC has to consider how long it's going to take to develop a rookie QB before he's capable of winning games consistently for a franchise. It's part of the reason why some pro prospects are called lock first rounders and franchise type QBs, and others are regarded as developmental prospects.

Even if Reid felt it would take two offseasons and one regular season to get Geno up to speed on the pro game, for an older HC who I believe expects to win a lot of football games this season, Alex Smith seems like the safer option.

It's not this black-and-white analysis where Reid believes that Alex SMith in total is a better QB short and longterm than Geno SMith.

Yes Reid thinks Alex Smith is the 'better' QB right now. What does that mean exactly??
It means Reid think Alex can come in after one offseason and run KC's offense
at a very efficient level and not lose games for the team.
It doesn't mean Reid believes Geno is untalented, not worth a first rounder or couldn't be the cornerstone of an NFL offense.

Geno detractors are using Andy's decision to pass on Geno as an indictment against Geno's chances for success in the pros or his overall ability, and IMO they aren't really related.

Whether or not the Chiefs pass on Geno has nothing at all to do with what kind of QB he's going to be in the NFL. It's not a red flag. Just one organization's evaluation of one player.

Reid chose not to gamble with a raw rookie and instead chose a known quantity in Alex Smith. Not much more going on than that.

Also schematically RG3 ran virtually the same Air Raid offense in college, minus a few components. For some guys yes spread offensive stats are inflated. For others they're an accurate reflection of the talent of the QB playing in that system.

Geno has a strong arm and is accurate downfield, two traits the typical spread QB of the past really didn't possess.
Also, consider what Andy Reid's state of mind may be. He drafted the rookie franchise QB and while he and McNabb were a success, I am sure he spend many a sleepless night over not acheving the ultimate prize. He has has health problems and he has had to deal with tragedy involving his sons. He had to leave Philly in a less than graceful manor. And don't forget how long it took him to put provide McNabb with the proper weapons to win big. He had to survive the good and bad of T.O. and see Westbrooke retire ringless. And all of this happened in front of the dogged Philly sports media.

This guy is probably on the fast track to redemption and that means "win now." If that is the case, then Alex Smith probaby fits the bill because they have a vet team in place. I don't think Reid was willing to go the long haul AGAIN with a rookie QB.

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Old 03-16-2013, 10:05 AM    (permalink
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No. There are no QBs worthy of a top 5 pick. The Cheifs are making the correct choice. Whether or not Cheifs fans are liking the decision, spending the #1 pick on a guy who's not graded even in the top 5 makes no sense. Geno Smith is not worthy of that pick. Someone like Joeckel and Fisher are different stories. They can be a corner stone LT in the NFL and top 5-10 at their position. Can you say the same about Geno Smith? That I don't think so. I think his upside is average/solid starter. He's got too many questions. Too many plays occurred in YAC from two great playmakers at WR. He also didn't fair too well against great defenses.

He looked awful in the cold weather against Syracuse. Awful. The only big play he had was a screen pass turned into a TD by Bailey. Terrible against Kansas State. Looked ok against Oklahoma. Terrible against Texas Tech.

Honestly, I just don't see greatness in him.
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:07 AM    (permalink
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Just because you don't see it doesn't mean it isn't there. You've never been wrong about a prospect?

And it's pretty common thinking now that he's a top 10 guy. If he's top 10 he can go top 5. Saying that someone is worthy of 9th overall but not 4th overall is ridiculous and stupid.
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:14 AM    (permalink
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Just because you don't see it doesn't mean it isn't there. You've never been wrong about a prospect?

And it's pretty common thinking now that he's a top 10 guy. If he's top 10 he can go top 5. Saying that someone is worthy of 9th overall but not 4th overall is ridiculous and stupid.
Why, because he's performed well in shorts at the combine and pro day?

The Cheifs have said it themselves they're not sure who the top QB is. So why take him first overall?

And yes, I've been both right and wrong about prospects. But when watching a QB prospect who;s going to go #1, you have to think to yourself, is there a wow factor? Everyone saw it with Andrew Luck and RG III. Even Cam NEwton, who I didn't and still don't like as a QB, displayed it.

Geno Smith shredded some pretty weak defenses. That's not impressive. Yes QBs will have off games, but when they're against good teams consistently, there is a flag.
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:38 AM    (permalink
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I'm so sick of people taking what a GM or HC says in February/March and acting like it's gospel. That doesn't happen. Everything they say this time of year is a lie.
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Old 03-16-2013, 10:48 AM    (permalink
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I'm so sick of people taking what a GM or HC says in February/March and acting like it's gospel. That doesn't happen. Everything they say this time of year is a lie.
Trading for Alex Smith using a 2nd and 3rd round pick already has shown how KC, who holds the #1 pick , thinks about this QB class.
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Old 03-16-2013, 11:28 AM    (permalink
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Trading for Alex Smith using a 2nd and 3rd round pick already has shown how KC, who holds the #1 pick , thinks about this QB class.
QFT. You don't give up that much and then draft a QB with the #1 pick as well. The fact they gave Chase Daniel a 3 year deal also guarantees the Chiefs won't take a QB in the 3rd round either!
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Old 03-16-2013, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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No. There are no QBs worthy of a top 5 pick. The Cheifs are making the correct choice. Whether or not Cheifs fans are liking the decision, spending the #1 pick on a guy who's not graded even in the top 5 makes no sense. Geno Smith is not worthy of that pick. Someone like Joeckel and Fisher are different stories. They can be a corner stone LT in the NFL and top 5-10 at their position. Can you say the same about Geno Smith? That I don't think so. I think his upside is average/solid starter. He's got too many questions. Too many plays occurred in YAC from two great playmakers at WR. He also didn't fair too well against great defenses.

He looked awful in the cold weather against Syracuse. Awful. The only big play he had was a screen pass turned into a TD by Bailey. Terrible against Kansas State. Looked ok against Oklahoma. Terrible against Texas Tech.

Honestly, I just don't see greatness in him.
You really need to look at the total of Smith's career at WVU, not just the 2012 season. He's had very good games against top notch defenses throughout his career.

I think people are seeing what they want to see with Geno, and for many it's not a very good QB.
Geno plays in cold weather every year in Morgantown. He's been a dominant QB in snow games and when it's near freezing.

I still see so many outstanding things he does well I can't really downgrade Smith too harshly for a few hiccups last season. IMO his skills translate to the next level in an NFL passing offense.

You don't build your offense around an OT. That's a complimentary piece when you have your QB. But that ship has sailed anyway and it's looks safe to say that KC is not taking a QB first overall.

If the Chiefs still have QB issues in five years and Geno is the face of some franchise and leading his team to the playoffs, not drafting him will be seen as a huge mistake.
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Old 03-16-2013, 02:22 PM    (permalink
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The post-draft reaction is going to be hilarious. The term overdrafted is going to be thrown around so much.

The strength of this class is found in its depth. That much is obvious. There’s a good amount of talent in the first few tiers and the drop between them isn’t steep. In terms of blue-chippers, this class is lacking. I have fewer than five prospects with top ten grades. I don’t think over half of the top ten is going to be overdrafted though. No matter what, ten prospects are going to be drafted in the first ten picks on April 25th. Teams can’t draft ineligible or fictitious prospects. You work with what’s available.

Preference is going to dictate a lot in this draft. Even stock reports from professional draft pundits are discardable drivel. Generic statements like “he’s a third-round pick at this point” are meaningless. Big boards change from team-to-team. Given the homogenous makeup of the class, third might mean second to a different team. Second might mean first.

For example, the most recent prospect I’ve watched is Malliciah Goodman from Clemson. I’ve seen a few outlets list him as a fringe third- or fourth-round prospect; however, if I’m a team that needs a base end with some pass-rushing upside, I’m going to give him a much higher grade considering his skill set and projectables. If I’m a team that values the idea of two explosive edge-rushers, Goodman won’t sniff that grade. Two teams. Two evaluations. One wide range.

Geno Smith is the same. I’ve seen people argue against him as a top pick with reasoning along the lines of, “Soandso has him ranked as their fifteenth best prospect and that’s too big of a reach”. While that might be the case, he’s still part of a tier that’s packed together. As the most important position in the game.

Does Geno get a top ten grade from me? No, he doesn’t. Right now, I have him valued in the mid-first. But that might change with inside information from interviews. And does that mean I think he’s overdrafted if he goes in the top five? No, I don’t. Because quarterback inflation is unavoidable and the value differential between an arbitrary fifth-ranked prospect and an arbitrary fifteenth-ranked prospect is negligible.
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Old 03-16-2013, 03:50 PM    (permalink
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I see zero reason for Geno to not be the #1 pick. Or #2, #3, #4, #6, #7, #8, or #9. He should go in the Top 10.
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Old 03-18-2013, 02:07 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs will trade down with someone in the top 10 who wants Geno and draft a lineman or DT OR DE.
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Old 03-18-2013, 02:36 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs will trade down with someone in the top 10 who wants Geno and draft a lineman or DT OR DE.
You mean if they can.
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Old 03-19-2013, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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You mean if they can.
I think Geno will be a Top 10 pick no matter what.. Jacksonville sent everyone to see him on his pro-day.. If they dont take him at 2 raiders will take him at 3 then you have the browns and bills.. Bills will take him.. Eagles are interested as well. So someone is going to give a mid to late round pick to KC for Geno insurance.. Reid may get his Second Round back that he gave for Alex Smith.. Reid is good at strategy... and gets value never overpays. The only team i would cross of the Geno list is Arizona.. the only team that needs a Qb who didnt send anyone to WV pro day.... Bruce Arians who had Andrew Luck Last year learned his lesson of 619 att 4200 yards 26 tds and 18 INts and 41 sacks.. Yes he made it to the playoffs but learned his lesson on having a crappy o line... lol He will go o-line and knows Geno wont be around.

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Old 03-19-2013, 03:58 PM    (permalink
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I want to see Geno Smith to the Jaguars and see him flourish.
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Old 03-19-2013, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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Trading down from the 1st overall pick is so common and easy.
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Old 03-19-2013, 04:17 PM    (permalink
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Trading down from the 1st overall pick is so common and easy.
I do it on Madden all the time.
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Old 03-19-2013, 05:16 PM    (permalink
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I do it on Madden all the time.
Hit a 36 year old Richard Seymour with the franchise tag and trade him for the worst team's entire draft.
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Old 03-19-2013, 06:54 PM    (permalink
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Oakland won't draft Geno Smith until Palmer/Pryor are released. Dennis Allen ha already said this off season that those 2 will compete for the starting job so I really do doubt we go with Geno at 3. Instead Jordan, Milliner or Joeckel/Fisher make more sense for us, since we added 3 DT's in F/A.

I don't see Geno Smith getting of the top 5, either Jacksonville will draft him at 2 or Cleveland/Arizona/Buffalo will trade up to get him. Not saying his value is top 5 (would probably say top 25) but in a QB needy league a team will take the chance on him.
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:02 PM    (permalink
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Hit a 36 year old Richard Seymour with the franchise tag and trade him for the worst team's entire draft.
after 3 years of drafting, even the worst coach in the league can win a super bowl with that kind of roster.
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Old 03-19-2013, 07:08 PM    (permalink
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I just think it's ironic that more then likely Geno won't make it past #7 but everyone was so concerned that he wasn't worth the #1 pick. He's going to end up really good if he goes to Cleveland or Arizona IMO.
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