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Old 03-15-2013, 08:31 AM    (permalink
Black Bolt
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I see Smith's stats at 3100 yards 17 TDs 5 INTs in 2011. To me, that's not overly impressive. And that's playing 16 games. All of us can carve out stats that say certain things. But, to date, I just haven't seen an overly great QB at any point in Alex Smith's career. But, hey, that's just me. He needs to be better than what he was in SF, IMO. Matt Cassel put up similar numbers as Alex Smith and we just ran him out of KC. I know Cassel was spiraling the last couple years while Alex was going up. But Cassel has put up numbers as good, and even better in some cases, than Alex Smith. And he's now a Minnesota Viking after being ran out of KC.

Now, a local radio host here brought up Rich Gannon and painted a picture of Alex Smith following a vaguely similar career path as Rich Gannon. Maybe getting with the right coach and morphing into a very effective QB "later" in his career. And the possibility exists that could happen. I wouldn't bet on it. But it's possible. I'm just saying, to date, I haven't seen it. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

What we do know, and what I think all Chiefs fans have to come to grips with and accept is that, for whatever reason, good, bad or otherwise, this organization will NEVER be interested in drafting and developing their own franchise signal caller.
He WISHED they had Rich Gannon. No comparison.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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chiefs signed OT/OG Geoff Schwartz. He can compete at RT, LG as well as provide depth.

I think its all but certain that the chiefs will be trading out of the #1 spot.
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Old 03-15-2013, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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chiefs signed OT/OG Geoff Schwartz. He can compete at RT, LG as well as provide depth.

I think its all but certain that the chiefs will be trading out of the #1 spot.
Wow, insane. Either that or they picking either and edge rusher or a DT/DE.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:23 PM    (permalink
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Well Reid, Dorsey, and the entire defensive coaching staff were in Eugene yesterday for Oregon's pro day.....and Reid met with Dion Jordan.

Interesting.

That's the guy I've wanted since the Alex Smith trade...I know we have two awesome OLB's but to me this guy is going to be a freakish playmaker that'll cause problems lined up all over...and let's face it, the Chiefs could use more of a pass rush no matter where it comes from. That's esp. considering if Sutton plans on running an aggressive, attacking defense.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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I think its all but certain that the chiefs will be trading out of the #1 spot.
I'm sure they would love to. That doesn't mean some other team is going to want to trade up.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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I'd be pretty pissed off if we drafted Dion Jordan #1.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:31 PM    (permalink
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I'd be pretty pissed off if we drafted Dion Jordan #1.
Ideally, I'd make a deal with Philly...recoup the 2nd rounder and hopefully more...and take him at #4.

I wanted Geno but that ship has sailed, why not Jordan?
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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I'd be pretty pissed off if we drafted Dion Jordan #1.
You are going to be pissed off no matter what so get ready.
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Old 03-15-2013, 02:41 PM    (permalink
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why not Jordan?
1. He is somewhat raw....not something you want out of the #1 overall pick.

2. the chiefs already have 2 starting OLB in Hali and Houston. That would limit his snaps/impact.

3. He is undersized (weight)...even as a 3-4 OLB.


Finally the chiefs have drafted Houston and Gabe Miller recently who ranked highly in Waldo's 3-4OLB sabermetrics. They are high boom/bust picks, but the chiefs didnt invest more than a 3rd and 5th round pick respectively.

Gabe Miller, a former TE turned DE at Oregon (much like Jordan), was a bust while Houston (from Georgia) adapted well to the chiefs 3-4 defense. Playing in a similar scheme in college accelerated his learning curve.

I would hope the chiefs draft Cornelius Washington, another Georgia player that is very similar to Houston and also did well under the sabermetric formula.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:21 PM    (permalink
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A lot is being made of Reid's love for O-Linemen, but it seems when it comes to the 1st round, he's much more partial to defenders who can get at the QB...It wouldn't shock me at all to see us take Dion Jordan.

And I think too much is being made of the fact that we already have Hali and Houston...This isn't Madden..Schemes are much more flexible than we as fans tend to realize...Building a team is not just about filling holes, but creating the most dynamic set of players possible...They would find a way to make it work especially given that Hali and Jordan are about as close to polar opposites as you can get when it comes to 3-4 OLB...Not to mention that Hali isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore and I highly doubt he's resigned after his deal expires in two years.

With Jordan in the fold, we could do some really interesting **** on 3rd round...I'm no Dick LeBeau, but off the top of my head, you could set up in the Nickel with Hali-Poe-Jackson as down lineman with Houston-DJ-Jordan as your LB corp - one or two of whom could get after the QB while the other drops back into coverage. Dime packages could get as interesting as well.

I've always thought that as much talent as Hali and Houston have, we didn't get nearly enough pressure on the QB as we should have..I think some of the blame falls on RAC, but I think some of it had to do with the fact that we were pretty limited as far as pass rushing options go beyond Hali/Houston...On obvious passing situations, it was always way too obvious where the rush was going to be coming from because a. They knew we'd bring Hali/Houston b/c of our lack of options elsewhere and b. They knew Hali/Houston (Hali esp.) weren't going to drop back in coverage due to their technical limitations. With Jordan, he's not strictly a pass rushing option, which could potentially be huge schematically.

Just curious here, but can anyone tell me why Jordan has leapfrogged Jarvis Jones? Is it just because of Jones' health issues or is there something more to it? I prefer Jordan because of his flexibility, but I never saw the gap as wide as it seems to be now.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:39 PM    (permalink
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You make some good points. I'm a fan of a team that has 80% of all DEs in the league.

Jones is small and he's not the phenomenal athlete Jordan, Ansah, etc. are.

So there are questions about how he'll translate. His film is clearly the best. But he also doesn't have elite speed or elite bend. He just has a knack for finishing. In college. That's a concern. If he had that knack + size + elite athleticism + one-to-two elite pass rush-specific move/skill/traits he'd be the first overall pick.

I take a guy like Jones everyday and twice on Sundays. But those are the reasons he's not regarded as a top-5 pick anymore.

Jordan scares me so I don't have him over Jones but I get the appeal.

I agree with your premise though - the Chiefs should take a pass rusher if they feel he's the best player on the board. You can never have enough.

However, it's tough to take a guy who won't start unless there's an injury. This might not be the best way to do it but it's OCD and it would draw a lot of criticism even if it truly is the best player.

And Hali and Houston are both young and under contract for the next three years if I'm not mistaken. If Hali was in the 2nd to last year of his deal or something then the move would make more sense.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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The Chiefs have no problems getting pressure from their LBs, but they get NO pressure whatsoever from their DLine. The pick should be Star if it isn't going to be Geno. We need a presence on that DL that can get after the passer, especially in the new defensive scheme.
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Old 03-15-2013, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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1. He is somewhat raw....not something you want out of the #1 overall pick.

2. the chiefs already have 2 starting OLB in Hali and Houston. That would limit his snaps/impact.

3. He is undersized (weight)...even as a 3-4 OLB.


Finally the chiefs have drafted Houston and Gabe Miller recently who ranked highly in Waldo's 3-4OLB sabermetrics. They are high boom/bust picks, but the chiefs didnt invest more than a 3rd and 5th round pick respectively.

Gabe Miller, a former TE turned DE at Oregon (much like Jordan), was a bust while Houston (from Georgia) adapted well to the chiefs 3-4 defense. Playing in a similar scheme in college accelerated his learning curve.

I would hope the chiefs draft Cornelius Washington, another Georgia player that is very similar to Houston and also did well under the sabermetric formula.
True, but take a look at Aldon Smith though..He was in the High Risk category and he's one of if not the best pass rushers in the league...It's unfair to punish Jordan for who came before him.

The NFL is changing at a rapid pace, but honestly, schematically-speaking, I think NFL defenses are at least a step or two behind NFL offenses...With techniques like the Spread offense and the no-huddle, a lot more priority needs to be given to not only getting after the QB, but finding players who can cover secondary targets like TEs and Slot receivers.

To me, the most interesting part about that sabermetric analysis is that seems as though pure strength was one of most important factors in success. There could be a number of reasons why, but in my opinion, its likely because these 3-4 OLBs were often going one-on-one with the much stronger tackles. Not that that factor won't be important going forward, but I feel as though Jordan will not be used as a traditional OLB (at least if he is to be used correctly)...Move him around and let him attack at the QB at non-traditional angles and I think he could develop into a star
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Old 03-15-2013, 05:08 PM    (permalink
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Sorry to just go on an on, but I feel like one of the primary reasons why the 3-4 became the preferred defense of the NFL over the past decade or so was it provided the defense the opportunity to mask what they were trying to do any given play...

However, as the 3-4 became more popular, offenses got used to the scheme and it became a lot more predictable. Take the Chiefs for instance. Every pre-snap read against them involved finding Houston and Hali and shutting them down because they knew the pair would rushing the passer.

Throw in Jordan into the mix and it becomes a lot more difficult for the QB to figure what exactly is going on.

The Chiefs have been looking for a stud 3-4 end who can get pressure on the QB for years now and they haven't found it..I think that says a lot more about the position than it does Pioli's inability to find that 3-4 end...Guys like Watt and Seymour don't grow come around very often...We can sit around waiting for stud players who fit exactly into our system OR we can go out a get some stud pass rushers regardless of position and mold the system around them...In the end, players win games, not schemes.

Just because no one else has run a scheme with 3 pass rushing linebackers doesn't mean we shouldn't...Honestly, if anything, perhaps it means we should..If history has taught us anything, it's that it's the innovators who win championships not people who sit around trying to emulate what other teams do. Our time with Pioli and the Patriot Way taught us that much.
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Old 03-15-2013, 05:17 PM    (permalink
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And Hali and Houston are both young and under contract for the next three years if I'm not mistaken. If Hali was in the 2nd to last year of his deal or something then the move would make more sense.
Hali will be 30 in November...He just seems like a young guy because he was a bit of a late bloomer.

And btw, earlier I said Hali only has 2 years left on his contract, but its actually 3...And on an unrelated note, I had no idea how frontloaded his contract was...He's making 12.5 million this year, but that drops down to 6 million per for his last two years...At least Pioli knew what he was doing when it came to cap management...
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Old 03-15-2013, 05:59 PM    (permalink
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Not to mention that Hali isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore and I highly doubt he's resigned after his deal expires in two years.
Hali is 28. He has never been a "speed guy." He had 9 sacks last yr with a rotation at DE infront of him (because Dorsey was injured most of the yr), and with teams passing less against the chiefs (chiefs offense was abysmal).

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With Jordan in the fold, we could do some really interesting **** on 3rd round...I'm no Dick LeBeau, but off the top of my head, you could set up in the Nickel with Hali-Poe-Jackson as down lineman with Houston-DJ-Jordan as your LB corp - one or two of whom could get after the QB while the other drops back into coverage. Dime packages could get as interesting as well.
It will be interesting to see what Sutton (defensive coordinator) does. The NFL (and the chiefs) have moved toward using more of a nickel/dime defense. that means less lineman and more dbs on the field.

The chiefs used a dime where they had 2 down linemean and had houston and hali always rushing. I like that idea better than having houston dropping into coverage. The chiefs have the dbs now (flowers, smith, robinson, arenas, berry, lewis, abdullah) to have a good dime defense.

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I've always thought that as much talent as Hali and Houston have, we didn't get nearly enough pressure on the QB as we should have.
I blame the defensive line. They underperformed.

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The Chiefs have no problems getting pressure from their LBs, but they get NO pressure whatsoever from their DLine. The pick should be Star if it isn't going to be Geno. We need a presence on that DL that can get after the passer, especially in the new defensive scheme.
Star is not a passrusher.

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True, but take a look at Aldon Smith though..He was in the High Risk category and he's one of if not the best pass rushers in the league...It's unfair to punish Jordan for who came before him.
I am not punishing Jordan based on Gabe Miller. I am saying that Jordan, who is a raw prospect, is a risk at #1 overall.

Statistically, cornelius washington and Jamie Collins have a higher likelihood of success. Grabbing 1 or both later in the draft would be a safer gamble than Jordan #1 overall. The chiefs dont have to take big risks (i.e. drafting Jordan #1 overall) since they already have 2 very good OLBs.

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The NFL is changing at a rapid pace, but honestly, schematically-speaking, I think NFL defenses are at least a step or two behind NFL offenses...With techniques like the Spread offense and the no-huddle, a lot more priority needs to be given to not only getting after the QB, but finding players who can cover secondary targets like TEs and Slot receivers.
this is not a scheme issue. This is a rule issue (rules protecting passer and recievers). Spread and no huddle have been around before and defenses have countered.

The competition committee have purposefully implemented rules that lead to higher scoring games and benefited offenses. A game of "touch" football naturally will benefit an offense.

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To me, the most interesting part about that sabermetric analysis is that seems as though pure strength was one of most important factors in success. There could be a number of reasons why, but in my opinion, its likely because these 3-4 OLBs were often going one-on-one with the much stronger tackles. Not that that factor won't be important going forward, but I feel as though Jordan will not be used as a traditional OLB (at least if he is to be used correctly)...Move him around and let him attack at the QB at non-traditional angles and I think he could develop into a star
sure, initially. Its a classic case of speed vs strength. Currently Jordan has speed and limited strength. He will get demolished in the run game. You could go into a dime defense and have less lineman to stop the pass, but offenses counter with the run.

There has to be balance. For any given play a defense has to choose whether they want speed (more linebackers/dbs) or strength (massive lineman).

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Old 03-15-2013, 06:07 PM    (permalink
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Sorry to just go on an on, but I feel like one of the primary reasons why the 3-4 became the preferred defense of the NFL over the past decade or so was it provided the defense the opportunity to mask what they were trying to do any given play...

However, as the 3-4 became more popular, offenses got used to the scheme and it became a lot more predictable. Take the Chiefs for instance. Every pre-snap read against them involved finding Houston and Hali and shutting them down because they knew the pair would rushing the passer.

Throw in Jordan into the mix and it becomes a lot more difficult for the QB to figure what exactly is going on.

The Chiefs have been looking for a stud 3-4 end who can get pressure on the QB for years now and they haven't found it..I think that says a lot more about the position than it does Pioli's inability to find that 3-4 end...Guys like Watt and Seymour don't grow come around very often...We can sit around waiting for stud players who fit exactly into our system OR we can go out a get some stud pass rushers regardless of position and mold the system around them...In the end, players win games, not schemes.

Just because no one else has run a scheme with 3 pass rushing linebackers doesn't mean we shouldn't...Honestly, if anything, perhaps it means we should..If history has taught us anything, it's that it's the innovators who win championships not people who sit around trying to emulate what other teams do. Our time with Pioli and the Patriot Way taught us that much.
you are over-thinking it. Brian Billick has some great videos on youtube discussing defense. Essentially he said you want to be able to bring pressure consistently with the least amount of players possible. Some teams are able to bring pressure with only 3 lineman, while others have to send 5.

Chiefs problem has been there defensive lineman have been unable to bring pressure. They have been space eaters. If you rush Houston and Hali, than you are essentially dedicating 5 players to the pass rush which leaves holes in the secondary.

Chiefs need lineman that can collapse the pocket and or stop the run (to get 3rd and long situations). hopefully Poe continues to develop and draws double teams.

Adding Jordan doesnt keep remove the fundamental question: How many rushers do you send? If you are still sending 5, than do you remeove a lineman? do you want a fron 7 guy covering recievers/TE or would you rather sub a db? Am I setting myself up to be gashed by the run? (a big problem for the chiefs in the dime defense)

its just a cat and mouse game between size and speed.
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Old 03-15-2013, 06:18 PM    (permalink
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Never can have too many pass rushing OLBs in a 34.
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Old 03-15-2013, 06:28 PM    (permalink
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you could say that about ANY position, but at some point it will come at the expense of another position.

There are only so many cap dollars to go around and players you can get.
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Old 03-15-2013, 06:39 PM    (permalink
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Star is JJ Watt compared to Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey.
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:27 PM    (permalink
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Star is JJ Watt compared to Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey.
not even close.
Star has 7 career sacks in 3yrs playing for Utah (2 yrs in Pac-10)
JJ watt had 11.5 sacks in 2yrs at Wisconsin in the big 10.
Dorsey had 15 career stats in 30 starts at LSU (SEC)
Tyson Jackson has 18.5 sacks in 38 career starts at LSU (SEC).

Jackson, Dorsey, and Watt were far more dominant players and pass rushers than star has been in college.
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:29 PM    (permalink
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At this point it comes down to an extension of Albert. If it happens it is 110% star. If not it still is 50% star 25% Luke 25% Fisher. I mean they did let Dorsey walk and have yet to replace him.
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oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:33 PM    (permalink
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At this point it comes down to an extension of Albert. If it happens it is 110% star. If not it still is 50% star 25% Luke 25% Fisher. I mean they did let Dorsey walk and have yet to replace him.
They signed Mike DeVito from the Jets to replace Dorsey. They could still take Star but it has been addressed.
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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the chiefs picked up Mike Devito in FA. They gave him a 3yr $12.6 million contract which is larger than what Dorsey got with SF.

Devito got a +11 PFF grade.

Chiefs defensive line depth is:
DE: Devito (former Jet), Jackson, Bailey (2nd round draft pick), Dixon (former Jet), Muir
NT: Poe, Torribio, powe (5th round draft pick)

RFA: Ropati
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Old 03-15-2013, 07:35 PM    (permalink
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I think Reid is gonna take Star. They might've showed up at Oregon only to portray the interest in Jordan, hoping that some team who wants him will trade up to get him. But Reid wants to get him some Lotulelei.
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