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Old 03-20-2013, 01:23 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
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On point #3, stlouisfan37, I wonder if that means there's a possibility Reid is looking at a QB in this draft, maybe in the first round??
Was Alex Smith signed to compete for the starting job, or is he Reid's handpicked starting QB for the the 2013 season??

In many ways Geno's game is so similar to the QBs Andy has coached in the past, that's why I thought he would be a perfect fit for his offense whether or not his draft value was the consensus number 1 overall prospect.

Otherwise I think KC is taking a lineman in the first round.
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Old 03-20-2013, 01:59 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
How do we know that Joeckel or Fisher are a downgrade on Albert?
We dont know that, nor do we know that he would be an upgrade. Albert has the advantage of having 5 yrs in the NFL playing LT and being in an NFL conditioning program. His technique should be light yrs better than college guys. Its far more likely that he is better currently than they are.


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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
Brandon Albert is not an All Pro or a Pro Bowl player. It's a stretch to call Brandon Albert top tier.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...owe-or-albert/

Drafted out of Virginia with the 15th overall selection in the 2008 draft, not many people expected left tackle to be Albert’s position long-term with a move to the right, or inside to guard predicted. However, through four seasons at the position he has continued to grow, leading to a very consistent past two seasons where he has graded out at +14.7 and +13.8, respectively.

The Chiefs may not have their franchise signal-caller yet, but when they do they’ll want to keep him upright. In that respect there are few players at his position out there better than Albert. Allowing just 17 total pressures from 378 pass blocking snaps in 2012, he finished the year with a Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) rating of 96.6, a mark which was tied for seventh among offensive tackles. Through the past two seasons he has allowed Chiefs quarterbacks to be hit or sacked just 16 times from 926 pass blocking snaps — working out to be quarterback knockdown allowed just once every 57.8 pass blocking attempts.

As a run blocker he hasn’t done much to get you excited, though he hasn’t been awful either, with the Chiefs averaging 4.13 yards per carry on runs either side of left tackle in 2012.

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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
He's not in the Joe Thomas tier.
He doesnt need to be. Neither are the LT of NE, SF, NYG, BAL....and Albert is better than what those teams have as a pass blocker. The chiefs can win games with Albert at LT.

Its like saying that Jamaal Charles isnt in the same tier as Adrian Peterson and should be upgraded too. Charles and Albert arent the reasons that the chiefs havent been winning.

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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
It's highly likely that Fisher or Joeckel are upgrades on Albert.
speculation.

1. Fisher is coming from a small school. That is a big transition to the NFL.

2. There are legitimate questions about Joeckel's ability to handle speed rushers and his strength (run blocking). Although he had a great 3-cone, the rest of his combine was a dissapointment. Some wonder if he benefited from having manziel bail him out.

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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
Keep in mind many scouts still believe Albert's best position is guard. Even tho Albert and his agents disagree.
1. citation needed. Please name these "scouts"
2. Andy Reid thinks Albert is a very good LT. It was known that he wanted to draft Albert while he was with the eagles.

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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
Alot of it comes down to risk. Joeckel is far less risky than Geno. A team can draft Geno, surround him with weapons and still see him fail. He's boom or bust. It's unlikely Joeckel will totally fail. Most of these highly picked OL succeed.
The player might not be risky, but drafting that player instead of a QB may be risky. Those who drafted Joe Thomas and Jake Long have been fired. Even Parcells has admitted that he would have drafted differently (i.e. Matt Ryan) if he had the chance again.

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We could point to Robert Gallery as an example of failure but even he had an 8 year career. Which is another point you can take Joeckel or Fisher and play them at other spots if they can't hack LT. OR Andre Smith a top 5 pick who became a great RT. you can't play Geno at any other spot besides QB
who cares? THe #1 pick in the draft will get a 4yr $22million contract. That is small in the big scheme of things. If the player fails, than move on. Bryant Mckinnie, Vollmer, Andre Smith, and until recently Jake Long are available in FA. A premier QB is not. Even Buddy Nix realizes that you cant win in the league without a qb.

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Originally Posted by stlouisfan37 View Post
1) Andy Reid is a winner. In 14 seasons in Philadelphia he won 6 division titles, and 4 other times was 2nd in his division. He is not accustomed to losing and will bring that with him to Kansas City.
second place is the first loser. big deal.

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Originally Posted by stlouisfan37 View Post
5) Reid is very much like the rest of the coaches from the Mike Holmgren tree in that he plays favorites and wants to win with his guys, right or wrong. There will be a lot of turnover in player personnel, and some of the moves will surprise you. It will probably be a couple of years before he really gets "his" team in place.
great, a complete rebuild. By then the core of this team will be old.
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Old 03-20-2013, 03:08 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
On point #3, stlouisfan37, I wonder if that means there's a possibility Reid is looking at a QB in this draft, maybe in the first round??
Was Alex Smith signed to compete for the starting job, or is he Reid's handpicked starting QB for the the 2013 season??

In many ways Geno's game is so similar to the QBs Andy has coached in the past, that's why I thought he would be a perfect fit for his offense whether or not his draft value was the consensus number 1 overall prospect.

Otherwise I think KC is taking a lineman in the first round.
That is a very good point, one I hadn't thought of. It certainly is possible, although I think that the trade for Alex Smith very much suggests otherwise. Smith wanted to be a starter and everyone knew it. It doesn't seem likely that Reid would trade multiple high picks for him knowing that and then turn around and draft the QB of the future right away. I think the starting QB job is Smith's until he proves he isn't capable of winning.
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Old 03-20-2013, 03:52 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bitonti View Post
my point was the poster brought up an article from 2012 that was a smoke screen. the Vikings said LT wasn't important... and then drafted the best LT. And whether it's a coincidence or not, that team went 10-6. The idea of "greatness" is somewhat arbitrary standard. No a top LT won't make a team championship caliber all by himself. But it's still an extremely important position.

how about the fact that the Ravens got really hot just when McKinnee came into LT and Oher moved to RT?

here's another example in 2011 the philadelphia Eagles had Jason peters playing at an All Pro level. In 2012 Peters tore his achillies and the team fell apart. Was it all because of the LT, no certainly the Eagles had other issues. But to run a passing offense you need one of these guys, cause there's gonna be a TE side chipping the RT and the LT is usually on an island. The LT has really tough assignments in the NFL.

THis idea that the LT is not as important as it used to be is a theory... without much evidence to back it up.
LT is an important position. But to say, "Kalil led..." is a bit of a stretch for me. The star of that team is AD. Take AD off that team you'll see a much larger drop-off than you would if AD stayed and Kalil disappeared.

And did the Ravens win because of McKinney or the fact that Flacco made championship throws, threw 11 TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs? IMO the later played a MUCH bigger role in the Ravens' success than the former. Not saying McKinney didn't play a role. Just saying McKinney's importance pales in comparison, significantly to the importance of Joe Flacco last year.

And there is growing evidence of the importance of the LT position relative to success. As mentioned, Joe Thomas has never been to a playoff game. Jake Long has only been to 1. Etc. Yeah, it's still a "theory", technically. But you have admit that it seems strange that those two in particular haven't "led" their teams to any great success despite them being "great" picks at the time and going to a bunch of pro-bowls. Again, not saying the LT spot isn't important. In fact, IMO, it's one of the 3 most important in your organization...still. It's just quite a ways down from QB as far as importance and impact.

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Old 03-20-2013, 03:57 PM    (permalink
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How do we know that Joeckel or Fisher are a downgrade on Albert? Brandon Albert is not an All Pro or a Pro Bowl player. It's a stretch to call Brandon Albert top tier. He's not in the Joe Thomas tier. It's highly likely that Fisher or Joeckel are upgrades on Albert. Keep in mind many scouts still believe Albert's best position is guard. Even tho Albert and his agents disagree.

Alot of it comes down to risk. Joeckel is far less risky than Geno. A team can draft Geno, surround him with weapons and still see him fail. He's boom or bust. It's unlikely Joeckel will totally fail. Most of these highly picked OL succeed.

We could point to Robert Gallery as an example of failure but even he had an 8 year career. Which is another point you can take Joeckel or Fisher and play them at other spots if they can't hack LT. OR Andre Smith a top 5 pick who became a great RT. you can't play Geno at any other spot besides QB.

the challenge for the Chiefs is they have to make that 1 pick and it's a tough place to really gamble. even tho 23 mil isn't 60 mil, it's still a bad place to screw up.
And remember, a lot of experts thought Albert was better suited at LT too. That door swings both ways. The man only allowed 1 sack last year. ONE. And that was to John Abraham in the season opener. Let's not poo poo on Branden Albert just because he hasn't made it to a pro-bowl. He's a very good LT. The tape proves that.
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Old 03-20-2013, 05:38 PM    (permalink
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It seems like the Chiefs aren't willing to meet Albert's asking price though. I don't see him in KC for longer than next season.
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Old 03-20-2013, 06:15 PM    (permalink
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How do we know that Joeckel or Fisher are a downgrade on Albert? Brandon Albert is not an All Pro or a Pro Bowl player. It's a stretch to call Brandon Albert top tier. He's not in the Joe Thomas tier. It's highly likely that Fisher or Joeckel are upgrades on Albert. Keep in mind many scouts still believe Albert's best position is guard. Even tho Albert and his agents disagree.

Alot of it comes down to risk. Joeckel is far less risky than Geno. A team can draft Geno, surround him with weapons and still see him fail. He's boom or bust. It's unlikely Joeckel will totally fail. Most of these highly picked OL succeed.

We could point to Robert Gallery as an example of failure but even he had an 8 year career. Which is another point you can take Joeckel or Fisher and play them at other spots if they can't hack LT. OR Andre Smith a top 5 pick who became a great RT. you can't play Geno at any other spot besides QB.

the challenge for the Chiefs is they have to make that 1 pick and it's a tough place to really gamble. even tho 23 mil isn't 60 mil, it's still a bad place to screw up.

So you honestly think that's smart? Drafting the "safest" player and the guy who most likely won't bust? Because that's always worked out right?
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 03-20-2013, 06:44 PM    (permalink
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They put themselves straight in the fire. They had a chance to draft their QB, and they gave up premium picks for a guy that was about to get cut.


Their job was REALLY simple. Draft a QB (Geno), tag Bowe (letting him walk next year), get some secondary depth (did that at least), OL depth, and draft receivers well like Dorsey has done with the Packers for years. If Geno failed, it didn't ******* matter and their jobs were safe. If Alex fails or if Geno is good, Dorsey and Reid shouldn't last two years here.

Now they're ******* with the OL.


I agree 100%. Aside from the fact that KC needs a franchise QB. After the whole Matt Cassell thing I wouldn't even of hired a guy who wanted to go that route again especially when for a majority of his career Alex Smith has proven to be average. If they do take a LT at #1, I would have personally rather gone Geno at 1 and Terron Armstead at 34. Geno has all but proven he's a top 10 talent, it's semantics arguing whether he is worth #1 overall. Reid could likely coach him up to do well in his offense.


Then you tag Albert, and give Armstead a redshirt year to learn the position and you have a guy with all the physical ability of the top tackles in this class but got to acclimate to the game slowly. I'm not saying that's perfect or what would absolutely work, but trading away the solid starters in place is what makes me think that he's smarter then everybody else.


I don't care about his track record that doesn't make all of his future moves perfect. Bill Parcells is in the hall of fame and he still drafted Pat White in the 2nd round.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 03-20-2013, 08:12 PM    (permalink
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How do we know that Joeckel or Fisher are a downgrade on Albert? Brandon Albert is not an All Pro or a Pro Bowl player. It's a stretch to call Brandon Albert top tier. He's not in the Joe Thomas tier. It's highly likely that Fisher or Joeckel are upgrades on Albert. Keep in mind many scouts still believe Albert's best position is guard. Even tho Albert and his agents disagree.

Alot of it comes down to risk. Joeckel is far less risky than Geno. A team can draft Geno, surround him with weapons and still see him fail. He's boom or bust. It's unlikely Joeckel will totally fail. Most of these highly picked OL succeed.

We could point to Robert Gallery as an example of failure but even he had an 8 year career. Which is another point you can take Joeckel or Fisher and play them at other spots if they can't hack LT. OR Andre Smith a top 5 pick who became a great RT. you can't play Geno at any other spot besides QB.

the challenge for the Chiefs is they have to make that 1 pick and it's a tough place to really gamble. even tho 23 mil isn't 60 mil, it's still a bad place to screw up.
How do we know? We know that they are both ROOKIES and that Albert is a proven NFL talent. Maybe they both will be better, but maybe they won't. The point is, if they trade him, the Chiefs are taking an necessary risk in terms of losing a proven NFL talent at LT.

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Old 03-21-2013, 10:34 AM    (permalink
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How do we know? We know that they are both ROOKIES and that Albert is a proven NFL talent. Maybe they both will be better, but maybe they won't. The point is, if they trade him, the Chiefs are taking an necessary risk in terms of losing a proven NFL talent at LT.
Yes he's proven he also has a wierd back issue. Joeckel and Fisher are healthier. Trading Albert might actually be reducing risk, due to age and injury.
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Old 03-21-2013, 10:56 AM    (permalink
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I still find it mind-boggling that people think Reid's and Dorsey's jobs would've been safe if they picked Geno Smith #1 overall and he failed, but they'll be fired in two years if their 2nd round pick investment in Alex Smith fails.
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Old 03-21-2013, 11:43 AM    (permalink
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Yes he's proven he also has a wierd back issue.
please clarify.

Albert missed five starts late last season with back spasms, but Dorsey said the Chiefs have no concerns about his ability to play a full season.

“His back is fine,” Dorsey said. “He passed our physical.”


Albert started the final game of the season.


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Joeckel and Fisher are healthier. Trading Albert might actually be reducing risk, due to age and injury.
1. please provide proof that Joeckel and Fisher are healthier than Albert. This is your opinion stated as fact. As far as I know, Albert does not have chronic injuries.

2. Albert is 28yrs old, and turns 29 in November. He is essentially in his prime. Age should not be an issue.

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I still find it mind-boggling that people think Reid's and Dorsey's jobs would've been safe if they picked Geno Smith #1 overall and he failed, but they'll be fired in two years if their 2nd round pick investment in Alex Smith fails.
way to miss the point. If the chiefs had selected either smith and he failed, than it would likely lead to a firing. The difference is even if Alex Smith succeeds, but isnt as good as Geno, than it too will lead to a firing.

Alex Smith will not only be judged on his play, but the play of qbs that the chiefs passed on with the #1 pick.
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Old 03-21-2013, 11:48 AM    (permalink
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1. please provide proof that Joeckel and Fisher are healthier than Albert. This is your opinion stated as fact. As far as I know, Albert does not have chronic injuries.

2. Albert is 28yrs old, and turns 29 in November. He is essentially in his prime. Age should not be an issue.
Players usually dont get healthier as they age. That's the best I can give you. Neither of us actually has proof that he's healthy.

JMO they are gonna trade Albert, probably for a 2nd, maybe to Miami.
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Old 03-21-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by stlouisfan37 View Post
2) Andy Reid has always addressed team needs in a questionable manner. For years fans were screaming that the Eagles needed a true #1 receiver and yet come opening day they would trot out guys like James Thrash as their top dog.

5) Reid is very much like the rest of the coaches from the Mike Holmgren tree in that he plays favorites and wants to win with his guys, right or wrong. There will be a lot of turnover in player personnel, and some of the moves will surprise you. It will probably be a couple of years before he really gets "his" team in place. But when he does, they are "his" guys and he will win with them. I see this year being a year of transition, and 2014 being the year that the Chiefs start their strong upswing.
I thought you made a lot of really interesting points here, good post. However, I did have a couple of comments on the two points above:

#2 - I agree wholeheartedly about his time in Philly, but one thing that I think a lot of people are missing is the differences between Reid's position in KC and his position in Philly. In Philly, he was the executive vice president of football operations and the head coach. In KC, he's just the head coach. While he does obviously have a lot of say in what goes on from the personnel side, he doesn't have as much responsibility and also has a stronger voice in the room in a very well-respected scout in John Dorsey. Not saying this eliminates your point, but I'm hoping it will be a mitigating factor.

#5 - I don't have anything concrete to really back this up, but I have gotten the feeling from the press that Reid is pretty high on this roster as a whole. Because of that, and the lack of cuts, don't think the changes will be sweeping, except to add depth and a player here or there. I think he likes the roster, made some changes, and believes he can have a 2012 Colts type of turnaround in 2013.

I'm excited to see, and regardless of what pick the Chiefs make, I'm interested to see how it all plays out. Can't be worse than last year!
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Old 03-21-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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Players usually dont get healthier as they age. That's the best I can give you.
that is the stupidest argument I've heard anyone make, and just shows a fundamental lack of understanding about health.

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Neither of us actually has proof that he's healthy.
I provided a direct quote/link from chiefs GM Dorsey.

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JMO they are gonna trade Albert, probably for a 2nd, maybe to Miami.
that would be foolish, IMO.

Lets look at it as an equation:

you would essentially be trading your #1 overall pick for a 2nd round pick. really foolish.
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:09 PM    (permalink
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that is the stupidest argument I've heard anyone make, and just shows a fundamental lack of understanding about health.



I provided a direct quote/link from chiefs GM Dorsey.



that would be foolish, IMO.

Lets look at it as an equation:

you would essentially be trading your #1 overall pick for a 2nd round pick. really foolish.
For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Albert either, but there is another part of the argument in favor of the trade that touts all the money you would save by switching to Gei.... I mean Joeckel. A couple million a year, probably. While immaterial to on-field performance, not immaterial to a team with a salary cap. I still don't like the idea, just wanted to point that out.
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Albert either, but there is another part of the argument in favor of the trade that touts all the money you would save by switching to Gei.... I mean Joeckel. A couple million a year, probably. While immaterial to on-field performance, not immaterial to a team with a salary cap. I still don't like the idea, just wanted to point that out.

sure, solid point. That being said, you dont draft a LT #1 oveall just to save a couple million. That player should improve your team and be a cornerstone player.

Even if someone thinks that Joeckel/Fisher is an improvement, the difference in change at that position will be smaller than other positions.

Diff. in change = | Albert - Joeckel|
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...n-left-tackle/

The Chiefs won’t have that problem with left tackle Branden Albert. Because he won’t be moving to the right side.

Coach Andy Reid said so during a visit to the mobile, open-air, Arizona Pro Football Talk studio.

“He’s done it and he’s done it at a very high level,” Reid said. “Enough to where we [franchise] tagged him. I loved him coming out of the University of Virginia and I’ve watched him throughout his career at Kansas City and he’s a proven left tackle in this league. That doesn’t mean he can’t play other things but that’s what he is.”
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Old 03-21-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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I thought you made a lot of really interesting points here, good post. However, I did have a couple of comments on the two points above:

#2 - I agree wholeheartedly about his time in Philly, but one thing that I think a lot of people are missing is the differences between Reid's position in KC and his position in Philly. In Philly, he was the executive vice president of football operations and the head coach. In KC, he's just the head coach. While he does obviously have a lot of say in what goes on from the personnel side, he doesn't have as much responsibility and also has a stronger voice in the room in a very well-respected scout in John Dorsey. Not saying this eliminates your point, but I'm hoping it will be a mitigating factor.

#5 - I don't have anything concrete to really back this up, but I have gotten the feeling from the press that Reid is pretty high on this roster as a whole. Because of that, and the lack of cuts, don't think the changes will be sweeping, except to add depth and a player here or there. I think he likes the roster, made some changes, and believes he can have a 2012 Colts type of turnaround in 2013.

I'm excited to see, and regardless of what pick the Chiefs make, I'm interested to see how it all plays out. Can't be worse than last year!
It will be more of a collaborative approach, I'll give you that. I obviously don't know the ins and outs of the Chiefs as well as I do the Rams, but I see Reid-Dorsey being very similar to what we have in Fisher-Snead, where there is a shared vision with two heads sharing the workload. Kansas City is miles ahead of where St. Louis was a year ago in terms of overall team talent, which is what likely made the job attractive to Reid in the first place. All that being said, I think you will still see Reid's personality and tendencies come out on draft day. And why not? It has been successful for him. I personally don't see Reid as a failure because he didn't win the big one. I tend to group him in with other great coaches like Chuck Knox, Don Coryell and Marty Schottenheimer, who always got more out of their players than their talent level suggested they should, and were always a player (or players) away from being able to get over the top. And let's not go into what happened with Schottenheimer in San Diego. AJ Smith was the reason why no one succeeded there. While he is great at spotting talent when he sees it, he is even better at fixing things that aren't broken.
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Old 03-21-2013, 01:15 PM    (permalink
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Lets look at it as an equation:

you would essentially be trading your #1 overall pick for a 2nd round pick. really foolish.
You're also saying that the risk of Joeckel busting is 0 and the reward of him being younger and cheaper is 0. Or that

Risk of Busting = Reward by being younger and cheaper.

If Risk << Reward (significantly less than), then it makes sense.
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Old 03-21-2013, 01:21 PM    (permalink
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If Risk << Reward (significantly less than), then it makes sense.
any draft player has a risk of busting. The reward is quantifiable (age + salary savings), while the amount of risk is not.

Why take on uneccesary risk? Its one thing if you are replacing a poor player, but it is another when the player is good (Albert). At worst your are turning a strength (LT) into a weakness.
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Old 03-21-2013, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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The reward is quantifiable (age + salary savings), while the amount of risk is not.
It most certainly is quantifiable. If you can quantify the potential gain (reward), then you can quantify the potential loss. You can also quantify the probability that a player reaches certain levels of production.

There is risk in holding onto the status quo, as well.

It may require (educated) guesswork, but that's what NFL GMs are paid to do. I'm not saying they are making the right decision, just that your analysis of the situation is incomplete.
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Old 03-21-2013, 02:55 PM    (permalink
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USA Today reports the Chiefs are "actively shopping" franchise player LT Branden Albert.
SI's Peter King reported earlier in the week that Kansas City would "listen" on Albert, but it actually appears to be the Chiefs seeking out the listeners. Albert, 28, is completely fine with the rumblings, too. "I've got to do what I've got to do," Albert said. "I don't know if I'm being traded, but I understand it's a possibility." The Dolphins have already been mentioned as a possible suitor.
Source: USA Today Mar 21 - 3:40 PM
I expect him to be dealt and them to take a LT.
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Old 03-21-2013, 02:57 PM    (permalink
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I really hope it's for more than a second. Ugh. This offseason has been so stupid and ridiculous that it's hard to believe it has actually happened.
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