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Old 03-23-2013, 01:10 AM    (permalink
Shupp
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Moving up a few spots might not be the worst thing in the world if Baalke falls in love with a D-lineman or DB. Take a look at this block of teams that pick before us:

26. (GB)
27. (HOU)
28. (DEN)
29. (NE)


Not only are these all 3-4 teams but many are also in the market for a DB.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shupp View Post
Moving up a few spots might not be the worst thing in the world if Baalke falls in love with a D-lineman or DB. Take a look at this block of teams that pick before us:

26. (GB)
27. (HOU)
28. (DEN)
29. (NE)


Not only are these all 3-4 teams but many are also in the market for a DB.
Broncos and Patriots run mostly 4-3.

Not that it matters. 49ers ran an even front the majority of the time.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:08 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by dan77733 View Post
Vacarro is the player my friend wants for his Cowboys and while i wouldnt mind him, I dont want the team to trade up for him because they would have to give up to much. I can see moving up a few spots but not 10-15+.
The Niners have 14 picks and not even that many open roster spots, let alone near-future starting spots.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:10 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Shupp View Post
We can also move up to # 28 or 29 with both of our 5th round picks.
Have to find a willing partner.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:13 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by 49erNation85 View Post
Why ? I don't understand ....
The 49ers used a NT just over 30% of the time last season. Most teams run 3 and 4 WRs against the 49ers.

So Baalke is building his D-Line to be the most-dominant in those 70% occasions rather than forcing a standard base 3-4.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:06 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by 49ersfan_87 View Post
Baalke is a big needs drafter early on and the 49ers have been linked to just about every DB in Free Agency. I think it'll be a S or CB at 31 (maybe even a small trade up) unless there's tremendous value elsewhere and i'm not sure Ertz is that value...

I think we'll take a TE at some point but prob in the 3rd-4th round IMO.
I dont think that it'll be a CB or a S in the first round unless someone slips and we move up. Last year, we drafted Jenkins and James in the first two rounds. Neither were needs whatsoever. Quite honestly, the more I think about it, the more im leaning towards Barrett Jones if he's still available. We're going to need a center in 2014 because with Goodwin still on our roster, unless something was to dramatically change, I dont see Kilgore being ready until next season which would be the final year of his rookie contract. Jones could start from day one, keep Kilgore as the backup and release Goodwin to save some cap room for 2013. Second round, I would go 3-4 DE and FS. 3rd round would be a CB and TE. 4th round would be another CB (Mathieu) and a SS to possibly replace Whitner in 2014 who I dont see Baalke keeping now that Goldson is gone.

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Originally Posted by Shupp View Post
Agree. If we can trade a 3rd and 4th to move up 5-7 spots to get him then I would be OK with that but I wouldn't want to give up much more than that.

Here are our picks listed:

1) #31- Round 1
2) #34- Round 2 (Thanks Alex)
3) #61- Round 2
4) #74- Round 3 (From Panthers)
5) #93- Round 3
6) #128- Round 4
7) #131- Round 4 (Comp)
8) #157- Round 5 (From Colts)
9) #164- Round 5
10) #180- Round 6 (From Dolphins)
11) #227- Round 7 (Thanks Taylor Mays)
12) #237- Round 7
13) #246- Round 7 (Comp)
14) #252- Round 7 (Comp)

Using the trade value chart it would cost 140 point to move from #31 to #24.

Our # 93 is worth 128, # 180 is worth 19 for a total of 147 points.

So in this hypothetical we would be selecting in the following positions.

#24
#34
#61
#74
#128
#131
#157
#164
#227
#237
#246
#252


Still not too bad!
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Originally Posted by Shupp View Post
My scenario ended up being a 3rd (#93) and a 6th (#180) to move up to #24
So, basically trade #31, #93 and #180 to move up seven spots? I wouldnt do that unless its an elite prospect. And actually, unless it's Milliner, I probably wouldnt even trade up at all.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:13 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brent View Post
The Niners have 14 picks and not even that many open roster spots, let alone near-future starting spots.
True but that can change in a year from now and I would prefer to either get a few starters this draft and have a few others ready to take over in 2014. I do think that Baalke/Harbaugh will do some moving around to where I think we end up with 8-12 draft picks instead of 14. The most interesting draft pick is #34 because I can definitely see some team trading their 2014 first rounder for that spot if someone that team likes falls there.

I would mainly move up in the later rounds to steal some guys but early, i would probably stay where im at. I dont think Vacarro is worth possibly jumping in front of DAL to get him. Vacarro is the best safety but he's not elite. If he's not in the Earl Thomas class, I wouldnt even think about it.

Quite honestly, after someone else mentioned it and the more I think about it, im hoping for C Barrett Jones at 31. Great value in my opinion, a need, a starter day one, cheap five year contract and a perfect fit next to Iupati and Boone.
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Old 03-23-2013, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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Wouldnt mind Israel Idonije if its a deal like Dorsey or better but either way, I would still be looking at a 3-4 DE in the Draft who can possibly be an eventual replacement for Justin Smith.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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I dont think that it'll be a CB or a S in the first round unless someone slips and we move up. Last year, we drafted Jenkins and James in the first two rounds. Neither were needs whatsoever. Quite honestly, the more I think about it, the more im leaning towards Barrett Jones if he's still available. We're going to need a center in 2014 because with Goodwin still on our roster, unless something was to dramatically change, I dont see Kilgore being ready until next season which would be the final year of his rookie contract. Jones could start from day one, keep Kilgore as the backup and release Goodwin to save some cap room for 2013. Second round, I would go 3-4 DE and FS. 3rd round would be a CB and TE. 4th round would be another CB (Mathieu) and a SS to possibly replace Whitner in 2014 who I dont see Baalke keeping now that Goldson is gone.





So, basically trade #31, #93 and #180 to move up seven spots? I wouldnt do that unless its an elite prospect. And actually, unless it's Milliner, I probably wouldnt even trade up at all.
I would make this trade for Vaccaro or if a guy like Patterson dropped.
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Old 03-23-2013, 12:10 PM    (permalink
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The 49ers used a NT just over 30% of the time last season. Most teams run 3 and 4 WRs against the 49ers.

So Baalke is building his D-Line to be the most-dominant in those 70% occasions rather than forcing a standard base 3-4.
This reduction in NT time could also be due to the fact that Sopoaga's play declined last year and not just that the staff chose to run a 4 man front.

Also note that once Justin was injured they had no choice but to rush 4 because their 3 man front was nowhere near dominant enough to get pressure on the QB without help. In 2011 that 3 man front was good enough.
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Old 03-23-2013, 02:49 PM    (permalink
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This reduction in NT time could also be due to the fact that Sopoaga's play declined last year and not just that the staff chose to run a 4 man front.

Also note that once Justin was injured they had no choice but to rush 4 because their 3 man front was nowhere near dominant enough to get pressure on the QB without help. In 2011 that 3 man front was good enough.
I disagree in both regards. I feel Ice did decline and JSmith being out did effect pass rush, but neither of those were why the team ran an even front. Sopoaga came out when the defense went to Nickel. When Justin Smith was out, RJF replaced him and Sopoaga still came out in nickel. They ran the even front so much because they were in nickel the vast majority of the time.

Another reason the pass D can be suspect is because the 49ers are likely the only team that always leaves both it's ILBs on the field in nickel. The only time PWilly or Bo came out was the occasional dime defense.
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Old 03-23-2013, 02:52 PM    (permalink
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Greg Papa and I argued about this last week in the Comcast SportsNet Bay Area newsroom, and I’m sure he’ll yell at me about it plenty more in the future, so I might as well get this down in a blog-item for posterity…

The gist: Papa was saying that the 49ers lost nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga and his back-up Ricky Jean-Francois in free agency and that signing DT Glenn Dorsey is not at all a proper way to fill that void because Dorsey isn’t a true NT.

Fine and point well-taken, but of course Papa went all nutty with arcane descriptions of the “0 technique,” the “3 technique,” playing 1 or 2 gaps, and all the coaching jargon he learned deep in the Raiders’ secret corridors and now he loves to throw out like he’s Football Zeus.

GPapa knows more about football techniques, alignments and strategies than I do, no question. Al Davis taught him well. But I disagreed with him on a major point.

The Sopoapa/Dorsey switch is isn’t about replacing a player you call a nose tackle exactly with another player you call a nose tackle, exactly and identically.

I believe 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio just likes taking the best players he can get and fitting them together as cohesively as possible, and that Sopoaga and Jean-Francois were decent but certainly not great… and definitely replaceable if their costs grew too unwieldy.

Also: Why go nutty over the loss of Sopoaga, who played 30% of the snaps last season, and Jean-Francois, who played 27% of the snaps (most of those at end/DT when Justin Smith was hurt)? And did you notice that both were rather lacking in impact when they did play?

The heart of this is that the 49ers’ base defense is a 3-4, which would make the nose tackle a very important part of the defense… if, indeed, they lined up in their base a majority of the time.

But they don’t actually line up in a 3-4–not a pure one–all the time.

Why not? Hint: Opponent offenses have learned that it’s not always wise to line up in a standard set and try to run at Patrick Willis, Justin Smith and NaVorro Bowman all day.

Opponent offenses have for the most part given up going with a normal two-back, two-WR, one-TE set against the 49ers; most of the time, it’s like what the Packers did in Week 1 and in the playoffs last year or Atlanta in the NFC title game.

Offenses go three-WR almost from start to finish, or if they’re not three-WR they’re four-WR, and that takes Sopoaga off the field because he’s certainly not a pass rusher.

From what I saw, Fangio’s usual answer to counter spread-out offenses was to essentially go to a four-man line, with Aldon Smith as the right end, Justin Smith as a “3 technique” (THAT’S FOR YOU GPAPA!) defensive tackle, Ray McDonald as another insider rusher and Ahmad Brooks usually rushing from the left edge/LDE/LB spot.

Sometimes the LBs lined up as DEs, sometimes they stood up as LBs and rushed anyway, so you can call it a 3-4 if you want. But the essence of it was a four-man rush line with Justin Smith and McDonald as DTs and two guys lined up outside them coming off the edges.

It’s what almost all defenses do vs. passing teams. It’s the right way to do it.

My point: Dorsey–and presumably whoever else the 49ers sign or draft in the coming weeks–will be much more useful as a part-time NT (which he’s not great at) but mostly as somebody Fangio can use in a DT rotation with Justin Smith and McDonald against pass formations.

It’s more important, given the way offenses attack the 49ers D, to play the DT well than to be a perfect NT candidate.

Sopoaga was not an option against spread-out offenses and Jean-Francois only got major playing time when Justin Smith got hurt, and RJF wasn’t very good once he got in there.

Once again: Dorsey isn’t a pure nose tackle and it isn’t a big deal because the 49ers only need a serviceable NT; what they really need is a stronger pass-rushing DT rotation to give Justin Smith and McDonald more rest and maybe add some oomph, too.

That’s Dorsey, and he’ll be followed by probably be 1 or 2 DT draft picks, and maybe another free-agent signing or two.

Now GPapa had another good point, and I will concede on this one: You want a very good NT to play against power offenses, such as Baltimore and Seattle, and those are two important teams. Great NTs keep blockers away from ILBs Willis and Bowman.

And yes, Sopoaga played 88% of the snaps in the last Seattle game (Seattle got a big early lead and didn’t need to throw much)… and played 54% of the snaps in the Super Bowl against the Ravens. (All snap-counts courtesy of Matt Maiocco’s running playing time tally–thanks MM!)

So if Sopoaga was a great NT, there would be a great need to replace him as powerfully as possible to stand up to the power games of the very good teams.

But again, I think Sopoaga, 31, declined a bit last year–he’s still a solid player, just not an irreplaceable guy, and I think Baltimore showed that he can be blocked when you line up and run it up the middle.

Dorsey is by no means a Pro Bowler. He’s been limited by injuries. And he’s not a pure nose tackle. But he’s a broader part of the equation for the 49ers D-line, and if he can play DT in some important pass-rush situations, and give Justin Smith and Ray McDonald some rest, and maybe even make some plays at either NT or DT… Dorsey is a solid add.

And more adds are coming, I would assume.
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Old 03-23-2013, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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Seems to be alot of Barrett Jones love amongst us. I just don't see it. He's currently my #3 center, which certainly doesn't give him a 1st round grade.

Brian Schwenke seems to be able to move the way I could see being far more effective at the 2nd level in the high-movement line work the 49ers use. Barrett Jones is a classic phone-booth type of center and the 49ers' line assignments require a ton of movement.
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Old 03-23-2013, 03:19 PM    (permalink
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Last year, we drafted Jenkins and James in the first two rounds. Neither were needs whatsoever.
I've seen this posted by a couple guys here. Offensive playmakers were definitely a need for this team going into last years draft.
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Old 03-23-2013, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Seems to be alot of Barrett Jones love amongst us. I just don't see it. He's currently my #3 center, which certainly doesn't give him a 1st round grade.

Brian Schwenke seems to be able to move the way I could see being far more effective at the 2nd level in the high-movement line work the 49ers use. Barrett Jones is a classic phone-booth type of center and the 49ers' line assignments require a ton of movement.
Don't count me amongst them. Not a fan of taking Jones anywhere before the end of round 2. Not a guy I really want at all, honestly.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by farfromforgotten View Post
I've seen this posted by a couple guys here. Offensive playmakers were definitely a need for this team going into last years draft.
Playmakers that compliment the roster were needed, LaMichael was not needed, he is too similar to Kendall Hunter. As far as Jenkins, I don't think he was the top receiver on the board at the time but time will tell.
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Originally Posted by VAfy-ya:The lack of ignorance in this thread is alarming.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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Wouldnt mind Israel Idonije if its a deal like Dorsey or better but either way, I would still be looking at a 3-4 DE in the Draft who can possibly be an eventual replacement for Justin Smith.
I'm a HUGE fan of Datone Jones. Perfect replacement for the Cowboy.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:13 PM    (permalink
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I'm a HUGE fan of Datone Jones. Perfect replacement for the Cowboy.
Jones, Short, or Jesse Williams. I like all 3 but Jones is my favorite as of now.
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Old 03-23-2013, 05:51 PM    (permalink
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How might you give him a 1st round grade if all he has done since heart surgery is run a 40 yard dash?

Mayock... whom hasn't mentioned his name all off-season throws his name into his Top-5 CBs and all of a sudden sites are reporting he could be a 1st rounder.

I just never saw it. I thought he was an early 3rd before he got hurt. I could be way off though, and I've seen more ridiculous things happen.
I came away very impressed with his play style when I watched him. I did only see a couple games. His style of play also fits the style of the SF DBs.
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I dunno even half of those guys why did we sign them jeez.
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Old 03-23-2013, 06:57 PM    (permalink
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I came away very impressed with his play style when I watched him. I did only see a couple games. His style of play also fits the style of the SF DBs.
Don't get me wrong. I like the little I've seen but it rings odd to me that Mayock never even mentions him in his top-10 until he runs his 40 and now he's #3 and a 1st rounder.
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Old 03-23-2013, 07:10 PM    (permalink
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Would you guys consider a late 3rd (#93) a reach for Matt Scott? I'm starting to really like this kid.

http://youtu.be/aoW11IIhDTs

http://youtu.be/81vkGTV0xxo

http://youtu.be/1Wj1ReW1YVU
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Originally Posted by VAfy-ya:The lack of ignorance in this thread is alarming.

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Old 03-23-2013, 07:32 PM    (permalink
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Would you guys consider a late 3rd (#93) a reach for Matt Scott? I'm starting to really like this kid.

http://youtu.be/aoW11IIhDTs
No. He might go long before that.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:14 PM    (permalink
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Seems to be alot of Barrett Jones love amongst us. I just don't see it. He's currently my #3 center, which certainly doesn't give him a 1st round grade.

Brian Schwenke seems to be able to move the way I could see being far more effective at the 2nd level in the high-movement line work the 49ers use. Barrett Jones is a classic phone-booth type of center and the 49ers' line assignments require a ton of movement.
That couldn't be further from the truth. He played most of the year with the same Lis Franc injury that kept Joe Looney from doing ANYTHING at the Combine or his Pro Day last year, as well as the entire off-season program. I've been watching Jones for three years now dominant at every position Saban has placed him. RG, LT, and C. He has performed above the norm. People will continue to sleep on him and his athleticism and that's fine. But he's going to be one of the most sucessful O-Lineman to come out of this draft. A fully healthy Barrett Jones I'd take over any O-Lineman in this entrie draft. Watch any game from 2011 at LT and tell me he's strictly "phonebooth" type of center. Impossible. No other O-Lineman in the draft offers the versatility of Jones. He's capable of being a above average player at any position you put him on the line at the next level. How many college lineman win the Outland Trophy as a junior, than play OC for the first time the following year and win the Remington Award for the top center as a senior, playing virtually on one foot? And he's probably the most pro ready of any prospect I've seen in a good while. I hope every other GM ranks as lowly as most fans do. He'll fall right into Baalke's lap.
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Old 03-23-2013, 08:33 PM    (permalink
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This reduction in NT time could also be due to the fact that Sopoaga's play declined last year and not just that the staff chose to run a 4 man front.

Also note that once Justin was injured they had no choice but to rush 4 because their 3 man front was nowhere near dominant enough to get pressure on the QB without help. In 2011 that 3 man front was good enough.
We rarely just rush 3. Even in base personnel, one of the OLB has his hand in the dirt. We ran a lot of 4-3 stuff, we just do it with 3-4 personnel. Baalke is trying to acquire more even front guys for depth/rotation proposes. That's where the intrest in guys like Idonje and Dorsey stem from. I expect us to draft some 4-3 guys as well. Wouldn't shock me if this draft was very heavy on defense. Aside from Aldon, I don't see any more huge contracts being dolled out defensively. So when guys like Whitner, Brown, and Cowboy's contracts are up, they want their replacements already on the roster. The future money has probably already been allocated to re-signing a lot of the guys on offense. CK, U(Iupati), A. Davis, Crabs, Miller and Hunter will all be UFAs in a year or two.
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Old 03-23-2013, 09:01 PM    (permalink
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We rarely just rush 3. Even in base personnel, one of the OLB has his hand in the dirt. We ran a lot of 4-3 stuff, we just do it with 3-4 personnel. Baalke is trying to acquire more even front guys for depth/rotation proposes. That's where the intrest in guys like Idonje and Dorsey stem from. I expect us to draft some 4-3 guys as well. Wouldn't shock me if this draft was very heavy on defense. Aside from Aldon, I don't see any more huge contracts being dolled out defensively. So when guys like Whitner, Brown, and Cowboy's contracts are up, they want their replacements already on the roster. The future money has probably already been allocated to re-signing a lot of the guys on offense. CK, U(Iupati), A. Davis, Crabs, Miller and Hunter will all be UFAs in a year or two.
I think Hunter may be expendable with James on the roster.
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