Draft Countdown Forums

Go Back   Draft Countdown Forums > Draft Countdown Forums > 2015 NFL Draft Forum

2015 NFL Draft Forum Discuss the 2015 NFL Draft

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-31-2013, 01:30 AM    (permalink
sbh15
2010 NFL Mock Draft Champ
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: streets ahead
Posts: 8,310
Reputation: 880005
sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

maybe not the best place to ask, but what happens if all of the top 10 teams pass on Geno? I know it's not likely, but it's not totally out of the question. each team could easily justify passing on him. who would trade up (back into the first?) and at what point?
sbh15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 01:36 AM    (permalink
BallerT1215
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South Florida
Posts: 7,240
Reputation: 1824401
BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.BallerT1215 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Pretty much every team in the top 10 that you think could possibly take him there will be the ones that will be interested in trading back in the 1st for him.

Problem is - KC,Oak,Buf are all short on picks. That leaves Jax, Arizona, and Cleveland.
__________________

Sig by the King BK


Fear the Spear - Winston Era has begun....
Quote:
"I wasn't going to lose to Miami, no matter what," Freeman said. "It means a lot to go out there and beat them. Every time I get a chance, I want to destroy them."
BallerT1215 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 10:24 AM    (permalink
Nastradamus
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,437
Reputation: 159834
Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Nastradamus is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Geno Smith to Jacksonville #2 overall. I think the Jags want to get their QB and build around him. I think Khan is going to be paitient with Bradley.

Nassib to Buffalo in the 2nd. Its a cliche, but for good reason. He's not an elite prospect, but probably a better one than someone like Nick Foles. The Bills probably shouldn't be passing on a Nick Foles type in the 2nd.

Landry Jones to Arizona in the 2nd.

EJ Manuel to Philly in the 2nd


Matt Scott to KC in the 4th.
Nastradamus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 12:50 PM    (permalink
marks01234
Veteran
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,349
Reputation: 21252
marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.marks01234 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
I agree with this. Thought being that second and third round QB's often don't pan out and those second and third round picks are really valuable. Unless they grab a guy high in the draft it seems like filling other major holes with those selections and then going QB in 2014 would be a better use of picks than taking a guy in the second or third this year and possibly/probably having to go QB in the first in 2014 anyway. Could obviously be wrong, though.
Like Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Matt Schuab, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton?

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.
marks01234 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 01:01 PM    (permalink
Brothgar
Team Leader
All-NFLDC
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 11,389
Reputation: 2502635
Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Brothgar is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by marks01234 View Post
Like Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Matt Schuab, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton?

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.
The fact that you found 5 names in twenty years tells you the success rate of QBs taken in the 2nd or 3rd round although 6 would be Kaepernick its still a
very low success rate. That would be a nice research project to see the success rate of QBs per round.
__________________
Stafford Sig by touchdownrams the rest of the sig by Sig Master Bone Krusher Avy by King of all avys renji


DEATH NOTE MAFIA SIGNUP!

Quote:
Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
oh please. as if canadians even know what beer is.
Brothgar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 02:03 PM    (permalink
MI_Buckeye
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 779
Reputation: 145737
MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.
MI_Buckeye is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 02:14 PM    (permalink
sbh15
2010 NFL Mock Draft Champ
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: streets ahead
Posts: 8,310
Reputation: 880005
sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.sbh15 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MI_Buckeye View Post
NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.
it's possible the Jets could take him if things play out like:
KC - Luke Joeckel
JAX - Dion Jordan
OAK - Star Lotulelei
PHI - Sharrif Floyd
DET - Ezekiel Ansah
CLE - Dee Milliner
ARZ - Eric Fisher
BUF - Barkevious Mingo

at that point they're looking at reaching for Xavier Rhodes depending on how they feel about Revis' future with the team or reaching for Jarvis Jones. that or make a potentially franchise-changing upgrade at quarterback

also, at what point is he worth it for a team like Denver to move up if they think Geno could be a QB of the future? obviously they have bigger holes to fill, but Manning won't be there forever and if he is sitting there late first they have to at least think about it
sbh15 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 02:27 PM    (permalink
MI_Buckeye
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 779
Reputation: 145737
MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.MI_Buckeye is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by sbh15 View Post
it's possible the Jets could take him if things play out like:
KC - Luke Joeckel
JAX - Dion Jordan
OAK - Star Lotulelei
PHI - Sharrif Floyd
DET - Ezekiel Ansah
CLE - Dee Milliner
ARZ - Eric Fisher
BUF - Barkevious Mingo

at that point they're looking at reaching for Xavier Rhodes depending on how they feel about Revis' future with the team or reaching for Jarvis Jones. that or make a potentially franchise-changing upgrade at quarterback

also, at what point is he worth it for a team like Denver to move up if they think Geno could be a QB of the future? obviously they have bigger holes to fill, but Manning won't be there forever and if he is sitting there late first they have to at least think about it
The Jets still have other options like Kenny Vaccaro, one of the guards or possibly even Cordarrelle Patterson. They could take a QB, but I don't think they're giving up on Sanchize just yet. Beyond the Jets, try finding another landing spot for QB.

Also, I don't think Denver's taking a QB early this year. They spent a second rounder on Brock Osweiler just last year.
MI_Buckeye is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 04:11 PM    (permalink
Cp3
Rookie
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 9
Reputation: 0
Cp3 hopes to escalate quickly but not get out of hand.
Default

I dont see the bucs getting a QB that high. I could see them taking somebody like a Scott or Landry Jones with one of their 4th rounders

Last edited by Cp3 : 03-31-2013 at 04:14 PM.
Cp3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 04:43 PM    (permalink
SolidGold
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,130
Reputation: 597016
SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MI_Buckeye View Post
NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.
At some point though with the QB depth in this class I wouldn't be surprised if each of those teams ends up drafting a QB - they just won't be reaching for them. All these QBs have some positive traits to build from - I don't think any of them are ready to step in day one and take over a team.

Once the dust settles with these QB moves - assuming Flynn to Oak and Palmer going to AZ, Kolb in Buffalo and Smith in KC I would not be the least bit surprised if they get a guy they like in the second/third round. Arians, Reid and Marrone are all offensive minded guys - Arians worked with and developed Roethlisberger/Luck, Reid has developed McNabb, Kolb and Foles, Marrone worked with Brees. In Oakland they brought in Greg Olson who also has a history of working with younger QBs like Freeman in TB and Gabbert in Jacksonville. I think each of these teams has a coach that likes developing younger QBs

I'm assuming that the new ownership/personnel and coaching regimes in Jacksonville and Cleveland both have their minds made up on Geno Smith and EJ Manuel.

In AZ I could see Arians opting for Glennon/Landry Jones/Bray - the prototypical pocket passers. Arians went on record that he was not keen on the spread option.

KC - I could see Nassib/Wilson. My own personal theory is that Reid is somewhat enamored with Wilson who seems to evoke Favre comparisons. Wilson has become somewhat of a forgotten commodity due to the abortion that was the Razorbacks 2012 season. Nassib has the type of mobility and athleticism to fit Reid's system as well.

Buffalo - Barkley/Nassib seem to be the type of QBs to fit Marrone's WCO being implemented in Buffalo. Nassib has his obvious connection to Marrone but I would not be surprised if the Bills are enamored with Barkley secretly. He seems to be the perfect fit for Marrone's offense.

Oakland - seems to bit the wildcard. Nassib reminds me of Flynn who they are trying to swing the trade for. But they could also target somewhat like Landry Jones/Tyler Bray.

This is just pure speculation on my point trying to logically figure out who fits where and as we all know many of the moves made in the draft are not logical
SolidGold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 09:10 PM    (permalink
Hurricanes25
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: New York
Posts: 6,919
Reputation: 663552
Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Hurricanes25 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by marks01234 View Post
Like Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Matt Schuab, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton?

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.
So nice of you to pick out a few of the exceptions.

Here's a list of 2nd and 3rd QB's taken from 1992-2010. The success rate is low.
http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/23qb/23qbs.php
__________________

Sig by BoneKrusher
Hurricanes25 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 10:02 PM    (permalink
WCH
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 5,144
Reputation: 3620464
WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.WCH is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

In general, the success rate of QBs is low. It probably has a lower margin for error than any other position in the NFL. You're either very good, or your team is actively looking to replace you. Your odds of hitting on a QB are, quite obviously, better in the first round. But they still aren't pretty. Check the first rounders:

1991: Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich
1992: David Klingler, Tommy Maddox
1993: Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer
1994: Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer
1995: Steve McNair, Kerry Collins
1997: Jim Druckenmiller
1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf
1999: Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown
2000: Chad Pennington
2001: Mike Vick
2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey
2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman
2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Losman
2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell
2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow

A lot of first round crap on that list. It's very hard to be a good NFL QB. I'm not really a fan of treating this like it's a statistical thing, as if you can play the odds and just draft the #1 QB, because sometimes the #1 QB is Jim Druckenmiller. You're much more likely to miss than you are to hit.

It comes down to scouting and a lot of luck.

Last edited by WCH : 04-01-2013 at 01:07 AM.
WCH is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-31-2013, 10:29 PM    (permalink
FUNBUNCHER
All-Pro
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Dodge City
Posts: 7,690
Reputation: 1222489
FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.FUNBUNCHER is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MI_Buckeye View Post
NFL Network is reporting that the Raiders, Cardinals and Bills are lukewarm at best about this year's QB class, and their actions seem to indicate such. The Bills just signed Kevin Kolb (seriously) to a starter's contract ($6-7 mill per year); the Raiders are close to sealing a trade for Matt Flynn, and the Cards have signed two QBs this offseason, and are the frontrunner to sign Carson Palmer if (when) he gets dropped by the Raiders.

The Jags now seem like the most likely team to take a chance on Geno. If Jacksonville passes, we could see an Aaron Rodgers/Brady Quinn type freefall.

Yeah I could easily see all these QBs drop in a major way. It's hard to imagine more than 1-2 QBs taken in the first round at all.

On the flip side, I think many of these QBs are elite level backups, better than game managers if the starter goes down. Very few of these guys will be given a chance to start as rookies IMO.

Would the jags really take a QB with the 2nd overall pick and have an open competition in camp?? Not the worst situation to have I guess.
__________________
FUNBUNCHER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2013, 10:14 PM    (permalink
blue streak
Rookie
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 5
Reputation: 0
blue streak hopes to escalate quickly but not get out of hand.
Default

Everybody needs to quit predicting a Bills trade up in the first round for Geno Smith. No chance it'll happen.
blue streak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2013, 08:49 AM    (permalink
Roddoliver
Rookie
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 292
Reputation: 30476
Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.Roddoliver is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

At this point I think Geno Smith and E.J. Manuel will be top 15 picks.

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter

Quote:
List I of players invited to NFL draft: Luke Joeckel, Geno Smith, EJ Manuel, Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Jonathan Cooper, Sharrif Floyd.
Quote:
Players listed on the previous three tweets are the ones now scheduled to ATTEND the NFL Draft.
__________________

Last edited by Roddoliver : 04-03-2013 at 09:09 AM.
Roddoliver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2013, 09:07 AM    (permalink
derza222
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 7,649
Reputation: 436537
derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by marks01234 View Post
Like Drew Brees, Brett Farve, Matt Schuab, Russell Wilson and Andy Dalton?

I think the NY Jets have to take somebody in the first 3 rounds. The nice thing about taking a flyer about a guy in the 2nd/3rd round is that it wouldn't prevent you from taking a guy in the 1st the following year.
As mentioned by a couple of other people, the success rate for second and third round quarterbacks is really low. And I didn't even say that they were guaranteed to bust if they drafted someone in the second or third round. But odds are that a second or third round QB won't be the long-term answer. The Jets have enough needs that they can't really afford to burn a pick on a guy who might be the answer but probably won't be. Which is exactly what I said in the other post, so I'm not sure if you actually read it.
derza222 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2013, 11:16 AM    (permalink
SolidGold
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,130
Reputation: 597016
SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
As mentioned by a couple of other people, the success rate for second and third round quarterbacks is really low. And I didn't even say that they were guaranteed to bust if they drafted someone in the second or third round. But odds are that a second or third round QB won't be the long-term answer. The Jets have enough needs that they can't really afford to burn a pick on a guy who might be the answer but probably won't be. Which is exactly what I said in the other post, so I'm not sure if you actually read it.
I definitely do not disagree with you looking at it from a historical prospective. Statistically 2nd/3rd QBs have not had much success. But I would make an educated guess that alot of these QBs were also sitting behind a veteran who got most of the reps and were not developed as much as they could of been etc.

The past few years with the evolution of offenses, QBs throwing a ton more in college - getting the reps, getting all this attention and training during draft preparations (IMG Academy etc.) they are coming into the NFL more prepared. Offensive coaching staffs in the NFL also seem to be so much more involved in developing young QBs as well. I just think this year in the 2nd/3rd round if guys like Glennon, Nassib, Wilson and Jones are there - teams are going to be glad they dropped to the second because they will see QBs with a ton of experience and quality skillsets to build from.

I just think moving forward it will be interesting to see if their is a change in how these QBs are treated and developed. Andy Reid made a cottage industry out of developing QBs these past few years.

For example: I could see KC picking up Joeckel in the first and Wilson in the third. I think KC fans would be ecstatic given Reid's ability to coach up and develop 2nd/3rd round QBs. They tell Albert to move to the right side or they trade him.
SolidGold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2013, 11:56 AM    (permalink
derza222
All-Pro
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 7,649
Reputation: 436537
derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.derza222 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolidGold View Post
I definitely do not disagree with you looking at it from a historical prospective. Statistically 2nd/3rd QBs have not had much success. But I would make an educated guess that alot of these QBs were also sitting behind a veteran who got most of the reps and were not developed as much as they could of been etc.

The past few years with the evolution of offenses, QBs throwing a ton more in college - getting the reps, getting all this attention and training during draft preparations (IMG Academy etc.) they are coming into the NFL more prepared. Offensive coaching staffs in the NFL also seem to be so much more involved in developing young QBs as well. I just think this year in the 2nd/3rd round if guys like Glennon, Nassib, Wilson and Jones are there - teams are going to be glad they dropped to the second because they will see QBs with a ton of experience and quality skillsets to build from.

I just think moving forward it will be interesting to see if their is a change in how these QBs are treated and developed. Andy Reid made a cottage industry out of developing QBs these past few years.

For example: I could see KC picking up Joeckel in the first and Wilson in the third. I think KC fans would be ecstatic given Reid's ability to coach up and develop 2nd/3rd round QBs. They tell Albert to move to the right side or they trade him.
On the flip side, quarterback is easily the most important position in the NFL. Guys who teams feel are potential franchise QB's get pushed way up in the draft. We saw it a couple of years ago with a few guys, Christian Ponder the most notable, going way earlier than most expected.

Those guys certainly have bases to work with. But to me, if teams think they are legitimate long-term options they will take them in the first round. It's not like there is a surplus of capable quarterbacks in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if someone outplays their draft position, but if I was a team I wouldn't bank on it either.

To me, second and third round quarterbacks are getting too much hype right now because of the recent successes of Dalton and Wilson. Wilson is an anomaly, he dropped due to his height and that looks like a big mistake by teams. Frankly to me, the jury is still out on Dalton. He's not a bad quarterback, but I think he benefits from throwing to AJ Green and at this point in his career certainly isn't the kind of quarterback who improves the play of those around him. And those are the true franchise QB's teams are after. The ones who consistently bring their teams to the playoffs. It's early, but it looks like the Seahawks might have that with Wilson (though again, he's not the kind of second/third round QB who comes around often and I don't think there's a Russell Wilson in this draft). I don't think Dalton is that kind of player, though.

And I was really just talking about the Jets specifically. That's a team that is a complete mess and has needs all over the place. To spend a relatively premium selection on a quarterback they like but don't love (because if they loved him, they wouldn't pass on him with their first selection) with the expectation that there's a good chance that they would need to spend a very high 2014 pick on the same position just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Who knows whether or not it happens, but my guess is that it's a first round or bust situation. Maybe Idzik is going to be looking for his own Russell Wilson coming from Seattle, but my guess is that he'll play the percentages, assume he's not in this draft (or if he is, that the odds of him being the guy the Jets draft is low), and wait until next year.
derza222 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-03-2013, 12:24 PM    (permalink
tjjohnson98
Rookie
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 32
Reputation: 18011
tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.tjjohnson98 is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by derza222 View Post
Maybe Idzik is going to be looking for his own Russell Wilson coming from Seattle, but my guess is that he'll play the percentages, assume he's not in this draft (or if he is, that the odds of him being the guy the Jets draft is low), and wait until next year.
I'm not a Jets fan, but my crude analysis is that Idzik is walking a fine line right now. He's trying to look like he's doing everything he can to help Rex win right now and improve the team as a whole (yes, trading Revis is part of that), but realistically the guy has to know that he's going to be firing Rex next January and you don't go get your QBOTF before you get your CoachOTF. Plus, Rex's tattoo would need to be changed if they drafted a QB. Awk-ward...
tjjohnson98 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2013, 10:18 PM    (permalink
SolidGold
Pro Bowler
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 4,130
Reputation: 597016
SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.SolidGold is kind of a big deal around here, people know him.
Default

Good article on Tyler Wilson - the forgotten man in this draft - http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...-shea/2056841/

I think he ends up in KC.
SolidGold is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.