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Old 03-30-2013, 03:56 PM    (permalink
Forenci
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I mean, if Brown is who we pick I'd be a little upset, but at the end of the day you know he will be a great player.

There are quite a few DT's/DB's I'd take over him though. Outside of Ansah I'm also not that high on a lot of the first round graded DE's.
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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Well Tank is intriguing, I'm only iffy on him bc I don't have any combine numbers to look at, bc that get off concerns me with him. Other than him and Ansah, there really isn't a 43 DE that wows me in the 1st round.

And DT...Floyd obviously won't be there, neither will Star, which leaves Richardson, Sylvester Williams. I heard Richardson has character concerns, and he's not a great run stuffer. Intriguing prospect, but he has his warts. Williams...I don't know. I feel like I'm looking at Marvin Austin.

So not too thrilled with DT. So that pretty much leaves DB. Rhodes could be on the board, and if he is, I've already said he's my guy. Vaccaro is also a guy I can be on board with. But both are seeing their stock rise and both could be gone.

So that leaves OL. Fluker, Warmack, Cooper.

Just saying, it's not a crazy scenario for Brown to be BPA on defense, maybe BPA altogether at 19.
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:05 PM    (permalink
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I like Richardson a lot. I hadn't heard about the character concerns so that might change things a bit for me. I would clearly be happy with Fluker, Warmack or Cooper. DB, Vacarro and Rhodes as you said.

Of all those guys, at least one of them will be there. I'd rather take them over Brown. If Brown is the only guy there and those other guys are by some rare chance, by all means I'd grab him.

The only pick that would infuriate me is TE. I doubt Reese would ever do it, but I have also learned to never put anything past him either.
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Old 03-30-2013, 04:09 PM    (permalink
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He intrigues me. But character concerns scare me. I don't know how factual it is or what those character concerns even are, but I've read or heard about it, teams are concerned apparently.

He'll start out as a nickel rusher, and develop as a 3 down DT in the pros. He's intriguing for sure. 1st round DTs scare the living crap out of me.

And maybe I'm having too much of a hard on for the guy, but I really like Jordan Hill.
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Old 03-30-2013, 06:18 PM    (permalink
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I'm not a fan of Richardson in the first.

I am not too big at all on 1st round DTs with character concerns.

We can get capable guys in later rounds.

I don't think we are looking at a first round DE unless Ansah or Jordan are somehow available.
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Old 03-30-2013, 06:38 PM    (permalink
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Of course you would, but that's why the defense has checks and audibles too.

That formation is just the base, but you can run all sorts of variations and checks out of it to counter the offense. That formation is hard to block up so if they start flexing out to spread it out, you can audible on defense too.

The main take home message out of that formation is the bear. Bear means covering up the 2 guards and the center. That's a bear formation, everything else is variable.

But if you do that, and keep the MIKE clean from inside traffic, you might have some success.

I also was thinking the Flex defense could have a place again in the NFL bc of the read option for similar reasons.
I know, that's fine though. I expect you to check as well, and it puts me in the best spot to succeed with the personnel on the field. I will adjust my formations with this specific personnel grouping, and force you to keep the base 3 LBs on the field. This allows me to run traditional passing concepts, and once I clear out the clutter which the defense presents, I can have the mobile QB run a keeper, like Colin K does very well.

That's the annoying variation the niners offense presents, which is very frustrating for DCs.
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Old 03-30-2013, 08:31 PM    (permalink
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Eh, I'm probably not the person to debate this with simply because I don't think Patrick Willis is nearly as good as many believe. He's a great player, but in terms of real impact I do not think he's incredibly special. He has special talent but his overall impact is modest because other than tackling and covering (to an extent) he cannot do much. My main issue is that he is a terrible pass rusher and offers nothing there. With his speed and size there is zero reason he shouldn't be better at it. It's not just a scheme thing too. He's never done it well.

Second, his coverage ability is limited. He doesn't lock down TE's. TE's have had a lot of success vs. the 49ers. Again, that's not all his fault though. Due to his position he cannot always cover the TE.

But that's where my overall problem lies with LB's. Their impact is limited, especially when they don't offer anything in the pass rush area. Look at the 49ers. Their defense was atrocious in the playoffs despite one of the best (if not the best) LB corps in the NFL. This is a passing league that does not need to focus on the middle of the field where LB's cover to be successful. Deep balls, back shoulder fades, and throws outside the numbers are far more popular for a variety of reasons. You keep saying we need studs like Willis to stop the run, but hey, teams are running less and less. The 49ers failed because when it mattered their secondary could not cover and their pass rush was limited. Even with all-world LB's they could not get it done.

Also we cannot have studs at every position. You're right, a duck is a duck. Every team has them. It's the nature of the business with the salary cap. It's a matter of weighing what's best for the overall defense and team. Would we rather have a mediocre player at safety/CB or at LB? LB or DE? LB or DT? I understand it's not always cut and dry like that but there are lot of good players in this draft and I'm sure one will be at our pick. If there's no one we think is good, I'm fine with taking Brown. I highly doubt they will be the case though.

And, honestly, I'd take Prince over Willis no question. Prince is a great player and I think he has a ton potential to be a number one corner. CB is much much more valuable than LB and I think Willis is a bit overrated to begin with. Hence why I'm probably not a good person for this debate because I value DB/DL much more than LB.
You make alot of valid points. And I agree with you, in that ILB is a position that I feel has less and less of an impact as each year passes. But I feel it ultimately comes down to coaching philosophy and your scheme in just how much value you put into the position.

JH and Fangio believe that as a defense, you must first and foremost, stop the run. Alot of what we do defensively is predicated on us being able to stop the run with just 7 in the box. That's one of the reasons we keep Bowman and Willis on the field in nickel situations. We're the only team that leaves two ILBs on the field in those instances. Because we want to be able to still stop the run against singleback sets. And its not just because we have two athletically-skilled ILBs. When Larry Grant filled-in for Willis in 2011 due to injury, the philosophy didn't change. And Grant is a good coverage ILB in his own right. But its something we put a premium on....stoping the run and making teams one-dimensional. I feel most DC's give lip service to stopping the run. They don't make personnel moves to defend it and they don't really schemed for stopping the run game. If they happen to stop the run fine, but everything is dedicated to defending the pass, which makes sense in this day in age. But for us, its really part of a overall philosophy.

So for what we do, our ILBs are important. Its one of the reasons Baalke decided to extend Bowman and let Goldson walk. I didn't agree with it, but I can see the philosophy behind it. We value the ILB position, probably a little more than others.

Our problems against the Falcons and the Ravens stemmed from a stubbornness to stick with two ILB philosophy against 4 WRs and bunch sets, which I feel is pushing it. And also, our defense is not very complex. We blitzed less than any other 3-4 team, by a significant amount. We are very predictable, in how we defend. Fangio's thing is to not confuse you but to execute the defense and be sound in all aspects. But there are certain times, against certain teams and QBs where you have to do more than just line-up and beat the man across from you. Because your not going to always win those battles. And when we don't win those battles, it affects everything we do. You live by press coverage, you die by press coverage. Fangio needs a little Rex Ryan infusion. Its nothing wrong with confusing teams showing complex looks and weird fronts and coverages. We are too predictable to a fault. And against the better QBs(the ones you see the deeper into the post-season you go), that's never going to work in your favor.

Also, I will dispute you on TE's and their effectiveness against Willis. Bam Bam has done a great job against TEs. The only TEs who had any real success against us in the regular season was Hernandez, and in the post-season, was Gonzales. He's really become a well-rounded LB. And Willis is responsible for the TE in all man situations, so that says alot. But I will agree he isn't a great pass-rusher, but then again, most ILBs not named Darryl Washington aren't either. Bowman is definitely better in that regard but being he played OLB his entire career at Penn State, I expect him to be a little more adapt in that role.

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Old 03-31-2013, 01:22 PM    (permalink
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Brown has really grown on me over the past few weeks, and his pro day made him a 1st rounder in my eyes. He had an incredible pro day. Couple that with his instincts and tremendous tackling ability, and his coverage skills, really the only thing Willis has on him is 10 lbs and 2 inches.

I still hope and pray he's there in the 2nd, but I really doubt it at this point. And while I'm hoping another talent is available at 19, would I be upset with Brown? Absolutely not. I have him as the best ILB in this draft, and really, from a defensive talent standpoint, I'm not too thrilled with the DTs, DEs (outside Ansah) in the 1st round.

The DBs are solid, but the 2 I like the most, Rhodes and Vaccaro could both be gone. So Brown could very well be the best defensive talent on the board at 19 to me.
I love Brown but I think you are being a little harsh on the group of DT's. I think there is a lot of talent in that group who will be solid NFL starters.
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Old 03-31-2013, 01:28 PM    (permalink
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We'll get a stud DB, DE or OL with our pick. And that's cool with me.
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Old 03-31-2013, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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I love Brown but I think you are being a little harsh on the group of DT's. I think there is a lot of talent in that group who will be solid NFL starters.
I wouldn't doubt it. 1st round DTs just make me nervous. The bust rate is so high.
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Old 03-31-2013, 02:03 PM    (permalink
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I wouldn't doubt it. 1st round DTs just make me nervous. The bust rate is so high.
I agree. I am nervous with 1st round DTs. Willie J. didn't help the situation. I just think you can get those guys later in the draft and sign as FAs. 1st round DTs really do make me nervous.
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Old 03-31-2013, 02:15 PM    (permalink
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I agree. I am nervous with 1st round DTs. Willie J. didn't help the situation. I just think you can get those guys later in the draft and sign as FAs. 1st round DTs really do make me nervous.
Give Jordan Hill a look on youtube and tell me what you think. I've been pimping him for a long time but he hasn't really generated any buzz and looks destined for the 4th round.

But I'm very high on him. Check him out and give me your take on him.
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Old 03-31-2013, 02:27 PM    (permalink
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Jordan Hill seems like Alford.
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Old 03-31-2013, 02:33 PM    (permalink
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He does. That's pretty good to me. I'll take that. If Alford didn't tear his ACL I think he could have been a very good player for us.
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Old 03-31-2013, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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I don't see Jay A. when I see this guy. Both played at the same school, but different game and body types. This guy is 2 inches shorted and lighter. He seemed average to me. Looks like he can get moved around by the OL. However, he showed good ability, at times, to shed and make tackles.

It's really hard evaluating based on youtube videos, which is why I don't do scouting stuff unless i have real game film.

Currently, I am studying the Chip Kelly, Oregon system.
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Old 03-31-2013, 07:37 PM    (permalink
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Currently, I am studying the Chip Kelly, Oregon system.

I am curious as to the various defensive schemes Oregon faced and how effective they were.
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Old 03-31-2013, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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I really like Rhodes at #19, I think he could play either CB or FS.
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Old 03-31-2013, 08:11 PM    (permalink
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I am curious as to the various defensive schemes Oregon faced and how effective they were.
I am not sure. I am just reading the offensive concepts, and watching as much youtube videos of it so I can see the formations and concepts they used.
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:07 PM    (permalink
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I am not sure. I am just reading the offensive concepts, and watching as much youtube videos of it so I can see the formations and concepts they used.
I am looking forward to your analysis :)
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:11 PM    (permalink
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I am looking forward to your analysis :)
Well some reason reminded me of the Urban Meyer's system. Kelly's system is Zone read spread offense. So now you will see the pistol, pistol-read/option, and Qb keeper that the niners run and some of what the skins run. Add that to kelly's system, and our division will be interesting.

It's basically what i was telling BBD. He put the bear defensive formation, but just like I said, that formation won't be effective. In fact, it plays right into the philosophy of Kelly's system.
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:21 PM    (permalink
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Looking at Brandon Myers, our new TE.

He is not the all round blocker or inline TE which we have had of late, but he is a genuine receiving weapon.

I am wondering if we plan to use him in a similar fashion that we had planned for Beckum and how we used Shockey.

We already have a very productive, well established offense.
It seems the addition of Myers and Murphy make our offense potentially a lot more explosive; add in the expected increased role of Wilson and we could have a very exciting offense with a lot of matchup problems for teams.
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:35 PM    (permalink
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Well some reason reminded me of the Urban Meyer's system. Kelly's system is Zone read spread offense. So now you will see the pistol, pistol-read/option, and Qb keeper that the niners run and some of what the skins run. Add that to kelly's system, and our division will be interesting.

It's basically what i was telling BBD. He put the bear defensive formation, but just like I said, that formation won't be effective. In fact, it plays right into the philosophy of Kelly's system.
That is interesting, it will certainly bring challenges for us.

I know we talked with college teams on how to defend the read option.
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Old 03-31-2013, 09:40 PM    (permalink
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Yeah, but Fewell has trouble with normal NFL defenses, and now we trust him to do that AND these new systems and concepts? LOL. Yeah... good luck Fewell.
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Old 03-31-2013, 11:10 PM    (permalink
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I think our defense will be ok this year. We have plugged most gaps and I expect a healthy dose of defense in the draft,
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Old 04-01-2013, 07:38 AM    (permalink
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I don't see Jay A. when I see this guy. Both played at the same school, but different game and body types. This guy is 2 inches shorted and lighter. He seemed average to me. Looks like he can get moved around by the OL. However, he showed good ability, at times, to shed and make tackles.

It's really hard evaluating based on youtube videos, which is why I don't do scouting stuff unless i have real game film.

Currently, I am studying the Chip Kelly, Oregon system.
I know youtube and DVR aren't the best options, but it's all we got.

I know he's undersized, which is why he'll fall in the draft, but he plays with excellent leverage and he's very good at recognizing the play. That's what impressed me the most about him.
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