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Old 04-10-2013, 07:17 PM    (permalink
hugegmenfan
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Default First Round Mock Draft with Analysis (feedback is encouraged)

2013 NFL Mock Draft

1. Kansas City Chiefs Select: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

Everyday the draft approaches, everyday this seems more like a certainty. While i'm sure the Chiefs would prefer to get out of this pick by trading down, I cannot see that happening. Due to the fact they do not have a 2nd round pick, they need to make this pick as much of a sure thing as possible and Joeckel is a player who will probably make several pro bowls

2. Jacksonville Jaguars Select: Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon

While I was tempted to actually put Geno Smith or Eric Fisher here, I ultimately went with Jordan. While I understand there is a new GM and front office in Jacksonville, I just have a feeling they will wait one year with Gabbert to make sure if he is a lost cause or not. MJD is back for a full season and with Blackmon, Shorts and Lewis, I'm under the impression Smith's stock is simply not high enough to take a gamble for the Jaguars. Jordan is explosive and will help the Jags pass rush which was horrendous last season.

3. Oakland Raiders Select: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida

Outside of Joeckel, I think this is the surest bet in the draft. Floyd is outstanding and I can see him developing into a stud (if the Raiders don't ruin him- no offense fans). The days of Tommy Kelly, Desmond Bryant & Richard Seymour are over and that leaves a huge hole in the middle of this defense. Floyd is a great pick and in my opinion, the top defensive player in this draft.

4. Philadelphia Eagles Select: Eric Fisher, OT, CMU

While I was tempted to give them Geno Smith, I think this would be an ideal scenario for the Eagles. Fisher is versatile, can play LT or RT and with Peters coming off injury and Herremans getting up their in age, this would be a player who can anchor and secure that offensive line for years to come.

5. Detroit Lions Select: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU

My head told me Milliner and my heart told my Ansah- and I went with the heart. While I think Milliner is more of a sure thing and fills a need for the Lions as well, the depth at CB in this draft is far more substantial than for 4-3 DEs. With the losses of Vandenbosch & Avril, I could see the Lions going for this athletic freak with huge upside. The signing of Jason Jones gives them a decent player on one end, but they have little else after that. I think they'll try and nab one of the other really good CBs or OTs in round 2.

6. Cleveland Browns Select: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

I have heard rumors that the Dolphins or Chargers may try and move into this spot to take Lane Johnson, which is very possible. But predicting trades is a fool's game honestly. Milliner is the best player on the board, further shores of their defense and paired with Haden gives them a dynamic duo of DBs. The Browns front office has no allegiance to Weeden, who is 30 and ironically almost done with his NFL career, but I can't see them wanting to sink this high on a pick on a guy that would presumably sit on the bench this year. The Browns seem to want to compete this year.

7. Arizona Cardinals Select: Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma

While I personally think one should always draft the best player available rather than for need, Arizona desperately needs oline help. Johnson's stock has risen significantly over the past few weeks. As I said above, I could see either the Chargers or Dolphins trading up, and if they do, it is to take Johnson. Geno Smith is a possibility but in the end, but from what I have read, I am not sure Arians is super high on Smith

8. Buffalo Bills Select: Geno Smith, QB, WVU

I'm personally not high on Smith. I also know Bills fans may be more inclined to wait until the second round to take Nassib but with Smith falling, the value is right and I can't see them passing over him here.

9. New York Jets Select: Star Lotuleilei, DT, Utah

The Jets seem to have a good end in Muhammad WIlkerson but lost Sione Pouha in free agency and have a lack of presence in the middle, with their starter at this point being Antonio Garay, a 33 year old stop gate. The jets struggled against the run this past year and plugging Lotuleilei in there will help that. Despite some health concerns, when he is at his best, Lotuleilei is as dynamic as they come and could be a bargain- has Ngata like potential.

10. Tennessee Titans Select: Jonathan Cooper, G/C, UNC

Cooper gets the nod over Warmack because of his ability to play both guard positions as well as center. With the signing of Levitre and the addition of cooper, it fits perfectly with what the Titans seem to be doing, i.e. emphasizing a power run game.

11. San Diego Chargers Select: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

As stated earlier, the Chargers could move up, but staying put and landing a guy like Warmack is excellent. While he does not fill their LT need, this is great value. Warmack may be one of the most sure things in this draft and will instantly improve their oline. I could see the Chargers selecting Jarvis Jones here as well if they feel they'd like to wait until the second round to address the oline.

12. Miami Dolphins Select: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St.

Ugh. I wish my Giants could trade up to get Rhodes. He is a 6'2 monster corner who is physical and excels in man-to-man. The Dolphins duo of Sean Smith and Vontae Davis is no more and this is easily their most pressing need and is a great value pick.

13. Tampa Bay Bucs Select: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

One of the trickiest teams to select for. I could see this pick belonging to the NY Jets soon. However, if the trade for Revis falls through, I think they will take the best player available rather than reaching for a guy like a Trufant or Effert here. While the ideal scenario would be to draft Rhodes, I think the Bucs would have to jump in front of Miami to do it. Richardson is tremendous and fills a relative need with the loss of Roy Miller. The duo of McCoy and Richardson is a frightening prospect.

14. Carolina Panthers Select: Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

This may not be a popular pick, but the Panthers need to provide Cam Newton with some passing options. Steve Smith has been ageless wonder throughout his career but there will be a day when he is gone. Austin has been shooting up draft boards but he is a 5'8 guy who cannot play on the outside. Patterson can do both. The panthers first and second options may be gone in Richardson. Dline has a lot of depth in this draft

15. New Orleans Saint Select: Barkevious Mingo, DE/OLB, LSU

This seems to be the popular pick and while I think the Saints could go in various directions, the switch to a 3-4 requires multiple skilled pass rushers and taking a hometown guy like Mingo could be a good start.

16. St. Louis Rams Select: Tavon Austin, WR, WVU

Austin has been shooting up draft boards recently and some say he could even go top 10 and definitely ahead of Patterson. I have some trepidations about his size but there is no doubt the guy is a playmaker and a weapon in the slot. While Kenny Vaccaro is here and the Rams need a safety, I could see them potentially drafting that with their 2nd pick in the first and trying to secure some help for Bradford first and foremost.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers Select: Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

It's amazing how some injury concerns can make a sure-fire top 5-10 guy drop to 17, but this would be an ideal scenario for the Steelers. While some may be feeling nervous with the loss of Wallace, and may be Emmanuel Sanders now, and opt for a WR, the value is simply not there. As a result, they take a guy who could develop into an absolute monster and perfectly fits the Steelers mode of football

18. Dallas Cowboys Select: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas

The cowboys biggest is safety and the best on the board is still available. Easy pick. While I despise the cowboys with everything in the fiber of my being, this pick makes a lot of sense. They addressed the secondary last year with Claiborne but still face a big hole in the secondary.

19. New York Giants Select: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

While I would like to see my Giants move down and acquire an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick, I think this is the way we go with the current scenario laid out. I see a lot of experts giving us DJ Fluker but I just cannot see it. We rarely ever take an oline man that high and we like to develop our own guys from low round picks and free agency. While Ogletree could make some sense, a guy with character issues is not a player the Giants typically give a first round grade too. A rotation of JPP, Tuck and Werner resoldifies our strengths as a football team and he will eventually replace Tuck full time on the outside in the next couple of years.

20. Chicago Bears Select: Alec Ogletree, ILB, Georgia

With the loss of Urlacher and Briggs getting up their in age as well, the Bears need to focus on their LB corp. They addressed the oline in the off season with Bushrod and Matt Slauson and that gives them leverage here. Ogletree is a great athlete and would fit in with this squad.

21. Cincinnati Bengals Select: DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama

Due to the fact, that Andre Smith has not been resigned yet, and I feel it's more caution on the Bengals part rather than Smith holding out, I think they shore up the oline with Fluker. Fluker is exclusively a RT and fits a need and is good value at 21.

22. St. Louis Rams Select: Eddie Lacy, HB, Alabama

Lacy's pro day is tomorrow so we should get a good idea of his draft stock tomorrow. With the loss of Steven Jackson, Barry Richardson and Isiah Pead are on the roster. While I'm aware Pead was a 2nd round pick last year and Barry Richardson showed some flashes, I''m not sure either of those guys is the workhorse they need. The rams need to use this draft to provide Bradford with tools to be successful, which they have seemingly ignored over the past several years. Lacy and Austin together in the first round give the Rams a pair of explosive, offensive weapons to help out

23. Minnesota Vikings Select: Slyvester Williams, DT, UNC

Kevin Williams turns 33 this year and is not getting any younger. Adding another Williams to the DT spot is very ironic. This team is built to run the football and stop the run and they need some youth on the dline to do that.

24. Indianapolis Colts Select: Datone Jones, DE/DT, UCLA

The Colts biggest need comes on the dline. Cory Redding is 33 and although they signed Ricky Jean-Francois to a deal this offseason, they can afford to add some additional help on the line.

25. Minnesota Vikings Select: Manti Teo, LB, Notre Dame

I definitely see the Vikings taking Teo either at this spot or at 23. I think they'll wait to take him here. While Vikings fans might want a WR, as I said before, this team is built to run the ball and stop the run and they've added two pieces to do just that.

26. Green Bay Packers Select: John Cyprien, S, Florida International

This guy has been shooting up the draft boards recently, ahead of Elam and Reid. While he comes from a small school, Cyprien is a physical player who can help the gap left by Charles Woodson. Sleeper pick: Montee Ball

27. Houston Texans Select: Keenan Allen, WR, California

This is a great value pick and a need for the Houston Texans. I think they have ignored that #2 Wr position for too long and what kept them from going farther in the playoffs was their pass offense. Andre is getting older and they need another guy on the outside to help out

28. Denver Broncos Select: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State

The odd loss of Elvis Dumervil leaves a hole on the dline. ACL Tears are not what they used to be and Carradine is a stud when he is healthy. I could also see them taking Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama, here but DE is a more pressing need with the loss of Dumervil

29. New England Patriots Select: Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

What a steal. While I do think Trufant will go much higher in this draft than 29, he could fall due to the lack of need of a CB of some of these teams.

30. Atlanta Falcons Select: Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

The Falcons biggest need is in the back end. They could opt for another pass rusher but the signing of Osi to some degree makes that less of a need than CB. Samuel is old, Grimes and DUnta Robinson are both gone and makes this their #1 need. Taylor is physical and fast and will help them from day 1

31. San Francisco 49ers Select: Matt Elam, SS, Florida

I've seen many drafts with Eifert going here to replace Delanie Walker, but I just cannot see that. With the loss of starter Dashon Goldson, safety is a more pressing need. Elam would presumably start day 1 and they just locked up Vernon Davis to a long-term deal which makes me think they are happy with their TE position.

32. Baltimore Ravens Select: DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

While Torrey Smith has turned into a very solid WR, the loss of Boldin makes WR a need. Jacoby Jones is a slot guy at best. Honestly, despite the losses of Ellerbe, Kruger, Reed and Boldin, I think this off-season is not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. Dumervil is better than Kruger, the potential signing of Rolando McClain could be a total steal (the guy is only 23!) and the addition of Hopkins could be a net-positive over Boldin, especially in the long term.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:34 PM    (permalink
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Brown not Ogletree please.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:38 PM    (permalink
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Pretty much exactly what you said in the Bills description. I would much rather take our chances for QB in the 2nd or 3rd rnd then to reach for Geno in the 1st rnd. I really hope we don't think he is too good to pass up.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:43 PM    (permalink
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31. San Francisco 49ers Select: Matt Elam, SS, Florida

I've seen many drafts with Eifert going here to replace Delanie Walker, but I just cannot see that. With the loss of starter Dashon Goldson, safety is a more pressing need. Elam would presumably start day 1 and they just locked up Vernon Davis to a long-term deal which makes me think they are happy with their TE position.
Elam seems to be a player that would fit better in the role that is being played by Donte Whitner than Dashon Goldson. Don't hate it, though.
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Old 04-10-2013, 07:48 PM    (permalink
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I'd be extremely disappointed if the Bucs miss out on Xavier Rhodes, but I could live with selecting Richardson.
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Old 04-10-2013, 08:03 PM    (permalink
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9. New York Jets Select: Star Lotuleilei, DT, Utah

The Jets seem to have a good end in Muhammad WIlkerson but lost Sione Pouha in free agency and have a lack of presence in the middle, with their starter at this point being Antonio Garay, a 33 year old stop gate. The jets struggled against the run this past year and plugging Lotuleilei in there will help that. Despite some health concerns, when he is at his best, Lotuleilei is as dynamic as they come and could be a bargain- has Ngata like potential.
Kenrick Ellis will be the starter at NT. Plus, I just don't see the Jets using a 1st round pick on the d-line 3 years in a row. Mingo is a much more likely pick.
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Old 04-10-2013, 08:13 PM    (permalink
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Kenrick Ellis will be the starter at NT. Plus, I just don't see the Jets using a 1st round pick on the d-line 3 years in a row. Mingo is a much more likely pick.
Ahh...you're right. I totally forgot about Ellis. That's a very fair criticism.
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Old 04-10-2013, 08:53 PM    (permalink
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I can live with Jones though I don't see him being much better than Redding was in his prime. I've been quite high on Rhodes, but my fellow Colts fans are really loving Trufant. The notion of having Davis, Toler, Trufant, Bethea and Landry as our nickel defense is highly intriguing.

Anyone else think the Jets push the Panic button and draft Geno if he's still there? Hopkins would be a great fit to the Ravens. He's the receiver I'd most want at #24.
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Old 04-10-2013, 09:34 PM    (permalink
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RIchardson is more of a reach at 13 than Eifert or Rhodes IMO.
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Old 04-10-2013, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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I know you say the value is right for the Bills to take Smith and I really have no argument but I do think the Bills will wait until round 2. I think the Bills either have their eye on a trade down or they are targeting one of two players. Those two players would either be WR Tavon Austin or SS Kenny Vaccarro. You must remember the Bills had a ton of interest in Mark Barron last year before he got scooped up by the Bucs 2 picks earlier.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:43 AM    (permalink
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Trufant or Brown to the Bears cuzz
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Old 04-11-2013, 08:41 AM    (permalink
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I approve of Jarvis Jones. WR is an absolute must in round 2...Hunter would be nice
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:11 AM    (permalink
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I really don't see Jamar Taylor going in the first round. But other than that, a solid mock.
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Old 04-11-2013, 11:17 AM    (permalink
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Pretty much exactly what you said in the Bills description. I would much rather take our chances for QB in the 2nd or 3rd rnd then to reach for Geno in the 1st rnd. I really hope we don't think he is too good to pass up.
I second that.
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Old 04-11-2013, 12:34 PM    (permalink
thebow305
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Rhodes isn't a bad pick for Miami.
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