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Old 04-30-2013, 02:21 PM    (permalink
LonghornsLegend
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
You need at least 10 games to judge him. Bc the first 5 games he can look great, but once teams figure out his tendencies, you want to see if he can adjust to that.

Typically with developing quarterbacks, they can look great for 5 games, then they hit a 3 game period where they look awful bc teams adjusted to them and exposed them, THEN after that, you want to see development. Can they bounce back? Can they adjust to the adjustments? Can they continue to develop?

Do they improve throughout the game? Are they making the same mistakes in the 4th quarter that they did in the 1st? Etc etc etc.

You can't see all of that in 5 games. You need at least 10. Really more like 12 or 13. That's why I think you have to start him. I mean, if Tanny can do it and Cam can do it why can't Geno?

Your logic is flawed though. What do you expect to see out of a raw QB with very little weapons in his very first season on a really bad team? There is nothing he could show that would make them want to keep him most likely. What did Kaepernick show Harbaugh in his rookie year? Nothing, because he needed development and he got in. Had you thrown Kaepernick on a team like the Jets from day 1 with crappy coaching and horrible environment he'd be getting replaced too.


You have to trust your scouts to know what you have. If you took him and felt he was a franchise guy you do everything in your power to make him succeed which is likely not playing this year. If you have a QB next year graded higher, and you don't like the progress from Geno in practice, you take that QB and let him battle it out with Geno. Best case you trade a guy for value in return, worst case you blew 1 of those picks but you for sure have a franchise QB.


You can't just take a 2nd round QB, throw him out there and say "go impress everyone from day 1 or else we are replacing you". I don't even know if they have a RT yet, it's still a mess there and anybody here can already see what would happen by throwing him out there too soon. It's never brought up much but a big part of the reason Kaep is what he is now is how he was developed, along with good coaching. If you aren't going to give Geno either one of those it's pretty unfair to expect him to waltz right in and be the man.


Dalton has gotten a few years now and I still don't think they are positive what they truly have in him yet.
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I guarantee that if someone picks Cam Newton in the Top 5 they will regret it.
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:29 PM    (permalink
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I think Sanchez holds on to the ball too long. Both a product of not having weapons and the turnovers that occured when he tried to trust them. Also, the lack of a good running game killed them. For all the hype around D'Brick, Mangold and Moore, the Jets OL couldn't make up for the lack of weapons that the Jets faced. They should've put Tebow at TE or RB to at least try to get creative.
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:45 PM    (permalink
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Your logic is flawed though. What do you expect to see out of a raw QB with very little weapons in his very first season on a really bad team? There is nothing he could show that would make them want to keep him most likely. What did Kaepernick show Harbaugh in his rookie year? Nothing, because he needed development and he got in. Had you thrown Kaepernick on a team like the Jets from day 1 with crappy coaching and horrible environment he'd be getting replaced too.


You have to trust your scouts to know what you have. If you took him and felt he was a franchise guy you do everything in your power to make him succeed which is likely not playing this year. If you have a QB next year graded higher, and you don't like the progress from Geno in practice, you take that QB and let him battle it out with Geno. Best case you trade a guy for value in return, worst case you blew 1 of those picks but you for sure have a franchise QB.


You can't just take a 2nd round QB, throw him out there and say "go impress everyone from day 1 or else we are replacing you". I don't even know if they have a RT yet, it's still a mess there and anybody here can already see what would happen by throwing him out there too soon. It's never brought up much but a big part of the reason Kaep is what he is now is how he was developed, along with good coaching. If you aren't going to give Geno either one of those it's pretty unfair to expect him to waltz right in and be the man.


Dalton has gotten a few years now and I still don't think they are positive what they truly have in him yet.
I cite Cam Newton and Jimmy Clausen as examples. Blaine Gabbert as well. Generally, regardless of how raw a developing qb is, you can see through the course of a season if he's gonna be the guy or not. You're not asking him to light it up, you want to see how he develops and responds to adversity. Bc you either have it or you don't. And if he can't respond to adversity he's never gonna have it.

You can tell right away that Clausen, Gabbert didn't have it. They couldn't respond to adversity. They showed no signs of improvement throughout the game, or season.

But guys like Cam Newton, who was just as raw as Geno, showed promise right away. You saw development. You saw him respond well to adjustments. Ditto for Tannehill. You saw a positive direction.

That's all you're looking for. You want to see the initial growth log, the plateau/dip, then you want to see growth following that dip. It's the traditional learning curve of every quarterback that's played this game minus a few exceptional players. The key is you want to see that gradual improvement following the dip. Regardless of how raw and undeveloped he is, he should follow a flowpath similar to the one I described if he has any promise as a qb.

Now the baseline of his curve will depend on how advanced he is coming in. And his ability to process information and develop will determine the slope of his curves, but the flowpath will remain the same regardless of how raw a qb is.

That's what you're studying. The curve. The curve itself will not change for a successful qb, just the slope and starting point. Failing qbs will not follow the curve. They'll dip and never return. I'll draw it out and attach a picture of what I'm talking about bc it's hard to explain in words.
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:53 PM    (permalink
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some guys are able to adjust to the NFL while others are left with people making excuses on their behalf year after year.

andy dalton is definitely in the first camp.
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Old 04-30-2013, 02:58 PM    (permalink
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Old 04-30-2013, 03:05 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by bigbluedefense View Post
ftfy:



the intersection of sanchez' ability and the t-axis is illustrated by this exact moment:


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Old 04-30-2013, 03:07 PM    (permalink
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That works too.
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Old 04-30-2013, 03:16 PM    (permalink
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I just don't get it. yes, i understand he's regressed. yes, i understand that you're suppose to be a better football player (stronger, smarter, more experienced) in your fourth year than in your first year. But really,

How is Mark Sanchez so bad? He's been in HUGE games before, most notably colt, steeler, and patriot playoff games. He's beaten the best with his arm, made good plays, and has plently, i mean plenty of championship caliber experience.

How do you lose your balls (confidence) and play as bad as he did last year?

Do the jets have some god-awful training staff? Does the team just give him the off-season off and say hey, do as you may as long as youre here in june? this guy is terrible and i really dont think a change of scenery as many predict, will be what gets him over the hump. I can already see him throwing a pick 6 or getting sacked from behind while scrambling as a member of another team. he may not be athletic, but trends dictate much more competence out of a player whose been in a familiar setting for 4 years at such a prime age.

I want to see your thought process as far as why you think he keeps getting worse year after year after year after year...
Its quite simple. Thomas JOnes,gone, LT, gone, Santonio Holmes, hurt for the year. Damian Woody and Faneca, retired. Defense, aging and missing Revis. Keller, hurt to start the year. Hill, not ready to contribute, Plaxico, gone(wasn't great, but the Jets were extremely efficient in the RZ when they had him). Lavarneus Coles and Braylon Edwards, gone.

Sanchez was always a product of the system IMO. He isn't horrible, but he isn't a franchise guy. He had an elite running game, elite defense and solid receiving weapons when he was having success in 2009 and 10. With Shonn Greene as his RB and Stephen Hill/Jeremy Kerley as his #1 receiving option, he just wasn't going to be effective.
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Old 04-30-2013, 03:23 PM    (permalink
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One hell of a hotdog eater in pressure situations.
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Old 04-30-2013, 03:28 PM    (permalink
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The nerd in me wants to create an algorithm based on that curve and track the success and failures of various quarterbacks and see if they all follow a similar pathway.

It would be a neat spreadsheet to come up with. I don't get paid to do that crap though so chances are I'm not doing it.
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Old 04-30-2013, 03:35 PM    (permalink
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As stated over and over...he won games because he had a great D and a good running game...Tebow did that with the broncos, the thing is if you dont have both of those(running game and D) you get the current Jets.


People love to bring up but he took them to 2 AFC championships...NO, NO HE DID NOT. He allowed LT and Shon Greene along with the D to win games, all he had to do was hand off and not make mistakes. Once he actually had to make plays and carry the jets is when he has been exposed as a disappointment, a reach in the draft and a subpar QB.
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:01 PM    (permalink
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Dalton has gotten a few years now and I still don't think they are positive what they truly have in him yet.
Stop hating on Dalton :P He's a fine quarterback for only playing for 2 years. His first 2 years are statistically on par or better than Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (as a starter) and Joe Flacco. I searched through 20+ players and the only two guys who seemed to have much better stats than Dalton in their first two years as a starter were Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers, both of which got to sit for awhile (I didn't check people who weren't currently in the league, idk how he stacks up against the greats in the past like Marino, montana etc.).

The Bengals were an awful team before Dalton got here. in 2010, The Bengals were 4-12, and in last place in the AFC. After drafting Dalton (and AJ Green, who admittedly is a giant part of this offense as well and deserves a bit of the credit) they have gone to the play offs twice.

We know what we have in Dalton just as much as any other team that had a QB for only 2 years, any doubt about him on the national level stems from the draft where he was being judged on his physical size and the round he was drafted in. Of course people are going to love the 6'5 245 lb. first overall pick more than the 6'2 220 lb. 2nd round pick. But that's over now, and he's proven he's still capable of throwing the ball.
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:05 PM    (permalink
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Dalton is behind a really good offensive line and has a really good number 1 receiver. He is incredibly mediocre though, and he will never take the Bengals anywhere.
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:12 PM    (permalink
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Dalton is behind a really good offensive line and has a really good number 1 receiver. He is incredibly mediocre though, and he will never take the Bengals anywhere.
I don't know how to even respond to this really. A lot of people thought Flacco would never take the Ravens anywhere either.

Also, before Dalton was drafted, the Bengals offensive line was considered poor outside of Andrew Whitworth. Maybe the perception changed once they drafted a new QB and a receiver who can catch. It's not like this line is masking the weakness in the run game, the Bengals were still ranked 26th in rushing last year.
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:32 PM    (permalink
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Stop hating on Dalton :P He's a fine quarterback for only playing for 2 years. His first 2 years are statistically on par or better than Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady (as a starter) and Joe Flacco. I searched through 20+ players and the only two guys who seemed to have much better stats than Dalton in their first two years as a starter were Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers, both of which got to sit for awhile (I didn't check people who weren't currently in the league, idk how he stacks up against the greats in the past like Marino, montana etc.).

The Bengals were an awful team before Dalton got here. in 2010, The Bengals were 4-12, and in last place in the AFC. After drafting Dalton (and AJ Green, who admittedly is a giant part of this offense as well and deserves a bit of the credit) they have gone to the play offs twice.

We know what we have in Dalton just as much as any other team that had a QB for only 2 years, any doubt about him on the national level stems from the draft where he was being judged on his physical size and the round he was drafted in. Of course people are going to love the 6'5 245 lb. first overall pick more than the 6'2 220 lb. 2nd round pick. But that's over now, and he's proven he's still capable of throwing the ball.
Dalton's ceiling is Chad Pennington. He will never be an elite QB because he lacks the necessary arm strength to make tight window and sideline throws. You shouldn't really use statistics comparing his first few years to those other QB's btw... much different game from 09/10 onward than it is today
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Old 04-30-2013, 05:35 PM    (permalink
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I don't know how to even respond to this really. A lot of people thought Flacco would never take the Ravens anywhere either.

Also, before Dalton was drafted, the Bengals offensive line was considered poor outside of Andrew Whitworth. Maybe the perception changed once they drafted a new QB and a receiver who can catch. It's not like this line is masking the weakness in the run game, the Bengals were still ranked 26th in rushing last year.
Flacco can actually throw the ball as far as his redzone receiver, something Dalton can't do. And their run blocking/running game is below average, but their pass blocking is elite.
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Old 05-01-2013, 09:18 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Brodeur View Post
Flacco can actually throw the ball as far as his redzone receiver, something Dalton can't do. And their run blocking/running game is below average, but their pass blocking is elite.
I'm actually surprised that you're saying this. I had you pegged as a Dalton believer.
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