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Old 05-14-2013, 11:21 AM    (permalink
VAfy-ya
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Originally Posted by farfromforgotten View Post
I see what you guys are saying, but it typically takes WRs 3 years to be productive in the NFL.
Not true. Crabs was produtive right away, as a top 10 pick should be. It was injuries, offensive scheme, and his QB that held him back intially. In some cases yes, but I don't think its typical at all. It really depends on how talented the player is.

And no one is saying Baalke will leave us with nothing if Crabtree walks. He'll go on and find a quality FA for a fair market value like he always does to fill the void. Its not like we'll have no talent there whatsoever once Crabs is gone. It will just be at a fraction of the cost. Baalke is always two steps ahead so I'm sure he would have a plan in place, just like he did for Goldson on how to address the issue.

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Old 05-14-2013, 11:31 AM    (permalink
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It doesn't matter what happens to Justin Smith or Rogers. Do you know how much a top tier QB will make 2 years from now? We're talking at least 16-18 million a year to re-signed CK. You know how much a premier pass-rushers goes for these days? You can expect Aldon to command more, as he's had the fastest start of ANY pass-rusher, to start their career. Expect him to fetch a pretty penny as well. And you still have to sign guys like Iupati. What are we going to do at CB? Rogers and Smith aren't making anywhere near what CK and Aldon will command. The reality is those two contracts alone will kill our cap maneuverability. Tough decisions will have to be made and I can defintely see Crabs being one of them. It will be a mirror image of Goldson this off-season.
Yes, it does matter what other players make. Take Rogers for example. For 2013, he's listed as the THIRD highest paid player on the team according to ninercaphell.com. His contract is over $24.5m over the next three seasons. You're telling me that doesnt matter? Come on. Baalke let Goldson leave because he didnt want to pay him but at the same time, even if he did want to pay him, he couldnt because we dont have the cap room.

Its bad contracts like the Rogers one that gets you into cap hell. You DONT overpay a 30+ year old player unless he's a franchise QB, period. Crabtree will be 26 in September and like Ness said, he's easily our best WR since Owens. So, basically, it was almost a decade before we had a top tier WR. I dont want to lose him unless he just completely declines in the next two seasons which I dont see happening because unlike with Alex, he's actually Kaep's number one target.

Back to Justin and Rogers...after 2013, the team gains $8m in cap room from Justin being an UFA and if Rogers gets released, we'll gain an additional $4.8m in cap room for 2014 and $5.8m in cap room for 2015 so yeah, I think those guys and their contracts do matter. Between them two alone, you're talking about an extra $12.8m in cap room for 2014. Dont know about you but thats a good amount of money being spent on aging declining players.

I love Justin Smith. He's awesome but there was a reason why we drafted Carradine...to hopefully be his replacement and there's still next year's draft as well. Smith was declining even before his injury and sorry, just like Rogers a year ago, I wouldnt pay Smith in 2014 just so I can let Crabtree (or another young stud) leave a year later. See...Rogers, Goldson.

As for Aldon and Iupati...I wouldnt be surprised if Iupati gets extended before the season starts. We have to wait until next off-season for Aldon and Kaep and while both will cost a lot to keep, its easier to keep them when you're not overpaying the older guys. Look at the Steelers. They continue to keep all their old players. Thats how you get into cap hell, not by paying a 26 year old WR.

And you fail to realize one other major factor...what's the point of paying Kaepernick but letting his favorite and top target leave? That makes no sense whatsoever. Sorry, I have no faith in Jenkins right now and Patton is just a rookie. Manningham and Williams are coming off torn ACLs, etc. and Boldin is a one year guy. And you can add his $6m to the $12.8m for a total of $18.8m in cap room for 2014. Yeah, we'll have the money.

Its just a question of paying the younger guys or the older guys. Personally, I prefer the younger guys but thats just me.

As for CB, thats where our main focus will be in next year's draft. Can see Brown being re-signed at a cheap salary and at the expense of Rogers. Still have Culliver who if we keep wont cost a lot whatsoever.

And quite honestly, I care more about keeping Kaepernick, Crabtree and the OL intact than I do about CB and Justin Smith.
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Old 05-14-2013, 11:40 AM    (permalink
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And you fail to realize one other major factor...what's the point of paying Kaepernick but letting his favorite and top target leave? That makes no sense whatsoever.
Tell that to Ben Roethlisberger.

Plaxico Burress
Santonio Holmes
Mike Wallace
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Old 05-14-2013, 03:21 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Madirishman View Post
I see what you're saying and Crabs is important to the Niners, but when hard decision have to be made (cap-wise) the least elite player or players are the ones that are let go to sign the more elite, despite their value to the team. Iupati, Kap and Aldon have a chance to be the very best player at their respective positions and Crabs doesn't, though he'll likely have a very good career. Many of us wanted to re-sign Goldson but the reality is, he's much more replaceable than some of the other players on the roster will be, so the big picture decision has to be made. If you pay someone, pay someone elite (Willis, VD, Bowman, etc.). Let the very good walk, build for the future through the Draft and the team will have the best chance at sustaining success.
Crabs in the 2nd half of the year was better than Iupati was IMO. Definitely not even close to being on the same level of replaceable than Goldson.

Maybe we won't re-sign him, he could easily overprice himself, but if we're losing 2nd half of 2012 Crabtree it'll be a big loss.
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Old 05-14-2013, 05:02 PM    (permalink
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Tell that to Ben Roethlisberger.

Plaxico Burress
Santonio Holmes
Mike Wallace
He had Ward and they drafted Holmes and Miller after letting Burress leave. They let Holmes leave because they had Wallace. They let Wallace leave because they have Brown and Sanders.

Difference being the Steelers had other receivers to minimize the loss. Who the hell do we have at WR to replace Crabtree? No one. Dont know about you but I sure as hell wouldnt be putting my job on the line with the hope that Patton and Jenkins kick ass. Boldin, Manningham and Williams could all be gone after 2013. If Crabtree leaves, might as well get used to sucking again because I dont see how Kaepernick will succeed with only one top tier target in Davis who's not an actual WR.

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Old 05-14-2013, 05:57 PM    (permalink
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Crabtree >>>> Aldon Smith
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Old 05-14-2013, 06:05 PM    (permalink
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"Might as well" Dan. "Might as well"

"Mine as well" doesn't make any damn sense.
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Old 05-14-2013, 09:58 PM    (permalink
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He had Ward and they drafted Holmes and Miller after letting Burress leave. They let Holmes leave because they had Wallace. They let Wallace leave because they have Brown and Sanders.

Difference being the Steelers had other receivers to minimize the loss. Who the hell do we have at WR to replace Crabtree? No one. Dont know about you but I sure as hell wouldnt be putting my job on the line with the hope that Patton and Jenkins kick ass. Boldin, Manningham and Williams could all be gone after 2013. If Crabtree leaves, mine as well get used to sucking again because I dont see how Kaepernick will succeed with only one top tier target in Davis who's not an actual WR.
Dan, Do you realize that Crabtree won't be a FA until 2015???

Alot can change on the 49ers depth chart at WR in the next 2+ seasons.
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Old 05-15-2013, 12:29 AM    (permalink
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"Might as well" Dan. "Might as well"

"Mine as well" doesn't make any damn sense.
Fixed. Completely screwed that up. Oh well.

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Dan, Do you realize that Crabtree won't be a FA until 2015???

Alot can change on the 49ers depth chart at WR in the next 2+ seasons.
Yes, I do and yes, a lot can change but until it actually does, team needs to keep Crabtree.
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:06 AM    (permalink
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What's being missed here is that we're not advocating that Crabtree be the one that leaves, we're doing the simple math of the reality of the salary cap era. I really like Crabs and his game and don't want him to leave but I'll take CK and Aldon (and most likely Iupati) over him. As Aldon and Kap are younger and more elite at their respective positions (both being among the most important and hard to replace in the game), they will be prioritized for big, long term deals over Crabs. Iupati is likely the next star on the team to get a deal and there have been reports that the Niners have already reached out to begin talks with him representatives. Crabtree is also being sighted as the potential odd man out in the coming years as he was the most difficult player to sign in the last several years. That precedent says that Crabs and his people will look to go for the big, big paycheck than do more of a team friendly, 'home-town' discount type of deal to remain with the team that Drafted him and provided him with the opportunities to succeed and win.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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What's being missed here is that we're not advocating that Crabtree be the one that leaves, we're doing the simple math of the reality of the salary cap era. I really like Crabs and his game and don't want him to leave but I'll take CK and Aldon (and most likely Iupati) over him. As Aldon and Kap are younger and more elite at their respective positions (both being among the most important and hard to replace in the game), they will be prioritized for big, long term deals over Crabs. Iupati is likely the next star on the team to get a deal and there have been reports that the Niners have already reached out to begin talks with him representatives. Crabtree is also being sighted as the potential odd man out in the coming years as he was the most difficult player to sign in the last several years. That precedent says that Crabs and his people will look to go for the big, big paycheck than do more of a team friendly, 'home-town' discount type of deal to remain with the team that Drafted him and provided him with the opportunities to succeed and win.
True but there's one small problem. If in two years, Crabtree is still our only legitimate threat at WR, how could the team even think of letting him leave? And here's why - everyone talks about Kaepernick and whatnot but what happens if he loses his main and favorite target? You can say that Kaepernick will be elite but dont know for sure as its too early to tell and if in two years, he becomes elite and Crabtree is a main factor, cant expect Kaepernick to still be elite if he loses his main and favorite target.

Granted, other receivers could step up and be established by then but as of right now, thats not the case and thus, even thinking of letting Crabtree leave isnt an option. You dont let a top tier player leave unless you already have another in place or its at a position thats easier to replace. Since Crabtree obviously affects Kaepernick and his performance, no way would I let Crabtree even hit the open market if there's no other established WR on the roster at that time.

Cap wise, the team can keep Kaepernick, Crabtree, Aldon and Iupati. You let the older guys leave like Whitner, Rogers, Justin Smith and Boldin. Also, wouldnt be surprised to see Gore gone after 2014 so when you add all of them while replacing them with draft picks, the team will have plenty of cap room to retain those four players. Its all about who Baalke wants to pay and doesnt want to pay.

If Rogers is worth an average of over $7m a season at his age, then Crabtree is definitely worth $10m a season if he picks up where he left off and continues that way the next two seasons. People may think that CB is more valuable than WR but its not especially when you finally have a franchise QB in Kaepernick.

If it was me, I would much rather pay extra to keep the offense intact and sacrifice a little on the defensive side. Finally having a legitimate franchise QB in Kaepernick changes everything because now, its all about building around him and keeping the talent that we have with him.

Unless Crabtree sucks the next two years and/or we have two additional established receivers, I keep Crabtree even if that means franchising him for two straight years.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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You don't get it Dan and I don't have the energy to keep explaining it to you. Just don't say we didn't warn you when it happens.
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Old 05-15-2013, 12:13 PM    (permalink
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If they pay Crabs $10M+ or franchise him twice, then they deserve to be in cap hell. That is ridiculous.
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Old 05-15-2013, 12:17 PM    (permalink
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Yes, I do and yes, a lot can change but until it actually does, team needs to keep Crabtree.
Haven't heard any whispers that the 49ers were getting rid of Crabtree in the next 2 seasons, have you? If not, then what is your point?
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Old 05-15-2013, 01:12 PM    (permalink
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For me it goes Kaep, Aldon, Crabs (if he continues his 2nd half of the year beastliness) and Iupati. If Crabtree reverts back to 2009-2011 play, thats not bad, but not worth big money.
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Old 05-15-2013, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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2009-2011 Crabtree is 2012 Crabtree. Nothing changed in his game....nothing. He didn't get quicker or faster, he didn't magically become better. He's been the same WR since he was drafted. Better route-runner now but he didnt turn into this great WR all of sudden. Look at the reasons why he was so successful last year. He got more targets because teams feared VD so much and they schemed their entire gameplan to stop him at all cost. So we used that against them, and that left Crabs in alot of favorable match-ups. Also, the addition of Moss and Manningham meant Crabs could now work from the slot and that's why he was so big on 3rd downs. He could work the middle of the field and exploit that area. He essentially took on the role of VD, as he used to work from the inside alot on 3rd down and we used VD as a decoy, with alot of outside-breaking routes to draw the safties away from the middle. Everyone remembers how average Crabs looked in the 2011 playoffs right? The one catch for three yards in the NFCCG ring a bell? Becuase Crabs was surrounded by medicore WRs, which meant he was lined up mostly on the outside, where he could easily be bracketed with a safety over the top. Adding more talent to the position helped him see more one-on-one match-ups in mutiple WRs sets. So the presence of talent in the WR corps also helped increase his production.

Remember how everyone was complaining about how we were not getting VD the ball in the regular season? Because teams were not allowing us to, so the ball had to go elsewhere. That meant more opportunities for Crabs. The passing offense didn't improve much from 2011. Crabs just took the rest of the targets and production VD had in 2011. That's it basically. But the most important thing is the QB changed. Because Crabs doesn't gain a ton of seperation, he needed a QB not afraid to throw into tighter windows. CK's arm talent allowed him to flourish. And that's what happens when you have a good QB....he makes the guys on the outside better. So all those factors are why he had the season he had. And the threat of the read-option in the playoffs, allowed VD to break loose from the shackles defenses had put on him in the regualar season. But getting back to Crabs, the ppl that think he's going to have the same kind of year in 2013 that he had last year, need to understand that it won't happen if we don't get someone on the outside to step up. Whether its Jenkins, Williams, or Lockette, Crabs success will hinge on others making enough plays on the outside to keep opposing safeties honest. That will allow Crabs to still work from the slot on 3rd downs and not being the focal point of opposing DC's. A lot ppl overlook what the presence of MM and Moss had on how teams defended Crabs and our passing offense as a whole. And with the addition of Boldin, who also does his best work from the slot, it will be interesting to see who plays where when both of them are on the field, in mutiple WRs sets. But if other guys don't step up outside, to test the boundary and make plays, it will be tough sledding for Crabs in 2013, mark my words.

Last edited by VAfy-ya : 05-16-2013 at 01:04 AM.
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Old 05-15-2013, 04:06 PM    (permalink
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Just curious.....if Crabtree has two good more years like he did in 2012, how much money do you guys think Crabtree is worth a season?
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Old 05-15-2013, 09:37 PM    (permalink
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Frank Gore turned 30. Congratulations. Hopefully he still has a lot left in the tank.
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Oh, my bad. Didn't realize SWDC was the pinnacle of class and grace.
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Old 05-16-2013, 12:53 AM    (permalink
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Frank (hopefully he has more in it) The Tank. Happy 30th bruh.
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Old 05-17-2013, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Some ppl suggest that CK is getting too big. What do you think?

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Old 05-17-2013, 01:18 PM    (permalink
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Looking at recent photos of Kaepernick, I think he looks mostly the same.
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Old 05-17-2013, 04:18 PM    (permalink
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Here's the beginning of the overrated Seachickens tumble and crumble toward failure:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/92...ded-four-games

I've enjoyed hearing that Seattle has been the trendy pick to win it all next year. This Niners team plays their best when everyone doesn't tell them they're the best. They still need a chip on their shoulder at times. Seattle does have a lot of talent and will be in the mix but I still think that they are not as talented nor nearly as deep as this Niners team. I just don't.
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Old 05-17-2013, 06:37 PM    (permalink
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This down time between the Draft and training camp always kills me. Plus all the "filler" stories get annoying...
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Old 05-17-2013, 07:23 PM    (permalink
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Kaepernick looks fine to me. No big. He needs to buff out any how.
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Old 05-17-2013, 11:29 PM    (permalink
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Quote:
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Kaepernick looks fine to me. No big. He needs to buff out any how.
Yeah. He's not as big as Tebow, and Tebow is the best.
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