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Old 05-22-2013, 11:06 PM    (permalink
Halsey
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If I was running a team today and my team needed a QB, I'd love to have Johnny Manziel. You can get other positions later. I'll role the dice on a guy who can lead the SEC in rushing, pass for almost 4,000 yards, and be fun as hell to watch. If he's a bust, I'll move on in a couple of years.
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Old 05-22-2013, 11:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Halsey View Post
If I was running a team today and my team needed a QB, I'd love to have Johnny Manziel. You can get other positions later. I'll role the dice on a guy who can lead the SEC in rushing, pass for almost 4,000 yards, and be fun as hell to watch. If he's a bust, I'll move on in a couple of years.
100% agree.

Manziel is a different type of cat.
You can't let yourself get bogged down in his measurables and miss his total game. I think he's a guy you can win with in the NFL, but you need to tweak your offense to fit what he does well.

The only question I have is the arm strength, but I think once the season's over his arm is going to be at least in the Andy Dalton range.

Manziel's in-game intangibles for the position are off the charts, which is why I think he can outplay being less than ideal height and not having a cannon for an arm.

I think the Romo comparisons made early on to Manziel are right on the mark.
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Old 05-22-2013, 11:31 PM    (permalink
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A lot closer to Jeff Garcia imo.
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Old 05-22-2013, 11:50 PM    (permalink
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Apparently Manziel has very large hands to offset his small stature and the dude wears a SIZE 15 shoe!! He's like this weird mismatch of bodyparts.
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Old 05-23-2013, 12:55 AM    (permalink
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I think we'll get a better look at how good he is this season due to the lose one of his tackles.

The biggest thing that stands out to me about him is his mechanics. They are not very good.
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Old 05-23-2013, 02:39 AM    (permalink
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Really awesome college guy but I have large reservations about him in the NFL. He is killer at backyard football but he is also very small, has arm questions, and mechanical questions as well. The dude can play, but lets see if he can develop more. He is fun to watch so I'd give him a shot just for fun. Its easier to move on from a failed QB now.
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Old 05-23-2013, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
Manziel is still a kid, Wilson is a grown man with 5 years lifting weights as a pro athlete.

They have many striking similarities.

Height.
Unique scrambling ability. (not running, scrambling)
Not a dynamite arm but can make all the throws.

Manziel was so smart and accurate by the end of the season last year it was scary.

His arm is legit. People just want to label him lazily for some reason. He can spin it as well as anyone in the nation. Deep ball touch is excellent. He's got literally everything except an ideal frame.

One difference is probably intelligence/presence on the field but Manziel is still just a kid and Wilson is an all-pro caliber NFL QB...
I'm reading Manziel's arm isn't even average by pro standards, so it's not legit if this proves out to be true. Wilson, on the other hand, has a solid pro arm so you may be comparing apples and oranges. I think Manziel may be one of those college QB's who turnout to be great in college but zero as a pro.
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Old 05-23-2013, 11:54 AM    (permalink
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I'm reading Manziel's arm isn't even average by pro standards, so it's not legit if this proves out to be true. Wilson, on the other hand, has a solid pro arm so you may be comparing apples and oranges. I think Manziel may be one of those college QB's who turnout to be great in college but zero as a pro.
He's really only had one year of big time football so not sure if he's exactly maxed out as a football player. Manziel has been working with George Whitfield (QB guru) in California on his footwork, arm motion and such.

My guess is he'll be a slightly less reckless player this year as defenses try to contain him more so the fundamentals should improve. He's a super athlete with big hands, as was pointed out, so it would stand to reason his arm strength could easily improve.
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Old 05-23-2013, 12:11 PM    (permalink
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He's really only had one year of big time football so not sure if he's exactly maxed out as a football player. Manziel has been working with George Whitfield (QB guru) in California on his footwork, arm motion and such.

My guess is he'll be a slightly less reckless player this year as defenses try to contain him more so the fundamentals should improve. He's a super athlete with big hands, as was pointed out, so it would stand to reason his arm strength could easily improve.
While I know a few NFL QB's have improved their arm strength by working on it extensively, the % of success is so low, I'm not holding my breath. In my eyes, you are what you are until you prove it otherwise and right now, Manziel has a below average NFL arm, and that just won't cut it at the next level. I love his flair and hope he proves to be the exception but only time will tell if he succeeds where so many others have failed.
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Old 05-23-2013, 12:22 PM    (permalink
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I'm reading Manziel's arm isn't even average by pro standards, so it's not legit if this proves out to be true. Wilson, on the other hand, has a solid pro arm so you may be comparing apples and oranges. I think Manziel may be one of those college QB's who turnout to be great in college but zero as a pro.
His arm is well below average by NFL standards. He is a fun player to watch in college, but there is a reason you don't see NFL QBs play the way he does, they would get killed by superior defenses.

The only good defense he did well against was Alabama, and winning that game was more a product of A&M's defense. Against LSU he was 29/56 for 276 yards and 3 INTs, rushing 17 times for 27 yards. Against Florida he was 23/30 for 173 yards, while rushing 17 times for 60 yards and a TD. Combined that is 52/86, 449 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 34 rushes, 87 yards, 1 TD. Against Ole Miss he ran the ball well, but was 17/26 for 191 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.
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Old 05-23-2013, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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[quote=MassNole;3371082]
The only good defense he did well against was Alabama, and winning that game was more a product of A&M's defense.QUOTE]

Probably had something to do with Manziel getting a massive lead for the defense to play with.
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Old 05-23-2013, 01:56 PM    (permalink
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While I know a few NFL QB's have improved their arm strength by working on it extensively, the % of success is so low, I'm not holding my breath. In my eyes, you are what you are until you prove it otherwise and right now, Manziel has a below average NFL arm, and that just won't cut it at the next level. I love his flair and hope he proves to be the exception but only time will tell if he succeeds where so many others have failed.
I agree that it is not common but if Manziel has the work ethic he should be able to bulk from the 195 last year to roughly 215 at some point. That's going to have a good chance to effect his arm IMO.
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Old 05-23-2013, 02:14 PM    (permalink
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I'll let someone else draft a guy on one good season, especially when that was a redshirt freshman season. He's still got a lot of growing to do. His body is nowhere near ready to play an NFL season.

Let's see what he does this season and hopefully at least next season. (when he won't have an all world OL...)
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Old 05-23-2013, 02:40 PM    (permalink
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Doug Flutie.

I heard this comparison and I thought yeah.... kinda...
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Old 05-23-2013, 03:01 PM    (permalink
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I'll let someone else draft a guy on one good season, especially when that was a redshirt freshman season. He's still got a lot of growing to do. His body is nowhere near ready to play an NFL season.

Let's see what he does this season and hopefully at least next season. (when he won't have an all world OL...)
every indication is he'll come out after this year. and we have to assume he has another good season otherwise all this talk is for nothing.
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Old 05-23-2013, 03:24 PM    (permalink
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I don't think you can really compare Manziel to anyone. He's kinda like Jeff Garcia in the height/weight department, but Manziel is far more explosive as a runner. I'm too young to remember what people thought of Jeff Garcia when he was a draft prospect, but his college resume isn't very impressive-looking. Everyone knows that Manziel could probably make some huge plays in the open field in the NFL, but in order to be a highly-sought-after QB prospect he's going to have to convince people he has the arm.

Personally, I wouldn't say that he has a "weak" arm, but he's definitely no Michael Vick. However, I do think he's a lot more accurate than Michael Vick. I like that he can throw from a lot of different angles and can throw well on the move - he does a good job of staying aware even as he's scrambling around and it allows him to find receivers down the field after he's bought time with his legs. I don't think I've seen enough out of him to put a draft grade on him. What I need to see now is how he looks throwing comeback routes, out routes on the sideline, and deep passes from the pocket. I'm sure there are some examples in his tape, but obviously it's not what he's known for. He's got some nice-looking passing stats, but he's playing backyard football right now. For me, that's not a turn-off - at least, not yet. He was a freshman playing in the SEC, and for now, beating those teams on athleticism is simply impressive.

When I watch him, I think I see a taller Denard Robinson with a better arm. Like Denard, when you watched Manziel play last year, every time he had the ball in his hands your eyes are glued to the TV because at any moment you expect him to take off for a huge chunk of yards that looked way too easy. Also like Denard, you see that a lot of his positive passing plays are the result of defenses getting paranoid about his ability to scramble and are looking to prevent the long QB run rather than maintaining good coverage. And again, I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing - he's an unconventional weapon, and defenses have to play him differently than they play other QBs. This will be true in the NFL as well, but I think he's going to have to work his magic in reverse order; in order to use his speed, he's going to have to prove that NFL defenders have to stay on their coverage assignments by demonstrating a consistent ability to hit receivers at the correct point in their routes. If he can hit the out route, the comeback, and other timing routes, then he's going to be able to run, too, because defenders are going to have to play honest to their assignments and will be occupied down field; if he can't hit those routes with consistency, it will allow the defense to cheat and mitigate his running ability - and if they're doing that because he can't hit his receivers consistently, you're talking about a situation where he's not able to run or pass effectively, and we're segueing into what could qualify him as a "bust."

For what it's worth, just comparing one arm to another, I much prefer his arm to David Fales'. I think he's got more zip. Especially on intermediate routes, Manziel gets the ball to his receivers a lot faster. Fales is another player whose accuracy I like a lot, but with his lack of arm strength he looks like he is just barely making it into his window a lot of the time, which scares me when thinking about how much faster NFL defenders are going to be than those playing in the WAC. Manziel's receivers have more room to work after the catch, even though they're playing in a faster conference. Manziel's running ability gives his receivers some additional separation as he buys time and threatens to run, unlike Fales, but I also think Manziel's arm is stronger. At any rate, just on account of his physical attributes it looks to me like Manziel will have an easier time getting completions in the NFL; or at least, the way he plays tends to create larger windows for him to throw into. What would make him a really great prospect, in my eyes, is if he can incorporate other things that Fales is good at into his game; it's not that I want Manziel to stay in the pocket, because that seems like a pointless requirement given his natural ability, but I'd like to see more from him pre-snap, and I'd like to see him get rid of the ball more quickly. As good as he is at running around, I'd like to see the ball get out of his hands more quickly on a regular basis instead of having the defense chase him around for a bit on seemingly every play before either throwing it or taking off running. I think that's what's going to be the biggest indicator as to whether he'll be able to make it in the NFL. If defenses have to respect his ability as a pure passer, the threat he offers will be compounded; he'll be able to run wild like he did in college if defenders have to turn their back to him and put all their energy into covering his receivers. Conversely, if he can't show the things that will force defenders to respect his arm, he's going to have a hard time running, too. In that sense, I think he's basically a double-or-nothing prospect.

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Old 05-23-2013, 03:46 PM    (permalink
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Probably had something to do with Manziel getting a massive lead for the defense to play with.
They won the game scoring 29 points, 15.5 points less than their season average and needed a game clinching intercept inside the 10 to seal it. I credit the defense with that more than the offense. A&M got the lead because their defense held Alabama's offense to 14.7 points below their season average. Nonetheless that is the only good defense he played well against, vs. LSU and Florida he was awful and didn't fair much better against a solid but not great Ole Miss defense/
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:02 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
They won the game scoring 29 points, 15.5 points less than their season average and needed a game clinching intercept inside the 10 to seal it. I credit the defense with that more than the offense. A&M got the lead because their defense held Alabama's offense to 14.7 points below their season average. Nonetheless that is the only good defense he played well against, vs. LSU and Florida he was awful and didn't fair much better against a solid but not great Ole Miss defense/
He was 76% vs fla, 65% vs ole miss and 52% vs LSU. In your words that was awful. tough critic.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
He was 76% vs fla, 65% vs ole miss and 52% vs LSU. In your words that was awful. tough critic.
Completion percentage doesn't mean a lot when you only make short throws. He averaged less than 6 yards per attempt against Florida, 7.3 YPA vs. Ole Miss, and less than 5.0 YPA vs. LSU. More telling is the 1 TD pass to 5 interceptions.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:10 PM    (permalink
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He was 76% vs fla, 65% vs ole miss and 52% vs LSU. In your words that was awful. tough critic.
And if we're just looking at stats, he really only had 3 bad games on the season. As a freshman. Playing in the SEC.

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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
Completion percentage doesn't mean a lot when you only make short throws. He averaged less than 6 yards per attempt against Florida, 7.3 YPA vs. Ole Miss, and less than 5.0 YPA vs. LSU. More telling is the 1 TD pass to 5 interceptions.
You can twist stats to say whatever you want. You're trying to say he can't make deep passes, or something, by using those stats? Why not just say so? The answers don't come from cherrypicking numbers from his (apparently) toughest matchups.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:15 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by FUNBUNCHER View Post
Apparently Manziel has very large hands to offset his small stature and the dude wears a SIZE 15 shoe!! He's like this weird mismatch of bodyparts.
Knowing that he wears a size 15 shoe, I am always going to think he runs the football like a jackrabbit. I can't stop looking at his feet now. They even look big on tape.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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And if we're just looking at stats, he really only had 3 bad games on the season. As a freshman. Playing in the SEC.



You can twist stats to say whatever you want. You're trying to say he can't make deep passes, or something, by using those stats? Why not just say so? The answers don't come from cherrypicking numbers from his (apparently) toughest matchups.
Not really seeing 3 bad games, more like one (LSU). For me there are plenty of things to pick apart as far as being a pro prospect. His Heisman worthy numbers in the SEC wouldn't be one of them.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:19 PM    (permalink
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You can twist stats to say whatever you want. You're trying to say he can't make deep passes, or something, by using those stats? Why not just say so? The answers don't come from cherrypicking numbers from his (apparently) toughest matchups.
It isn't twisting stats, it is point out glaringly bad games.

Have you looked at the OOC they played, that featured no BCS teams and 2 FCS teams. In those 4 games he put up 1,130 yards passing (30% of his season total), 16 TD passes (43%), 483 yards rushing (34%). He also got to feast on god awful teams like Auburn, Missouri, and Arkansas. The Alabama game was good, but the other marquee games he wasn't good and was carried by ESPN's disgusting hype machine.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:38 PM    (permalink
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Watch the bowl game tape and tell me what he doesn't do well.
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Old 05-23-2013, 04:41 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Babylon View Post
Not really seeing 3 bad games, more like one (LSU). For me there are plenty of things to pick apart as far as being a pro prospect. His Heisman worthy numbers in the SEC wouldn't be one of them.
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It isn't twisting stats, it is point out glaringly bad games.



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Have you looked at the OOC they played, that featured no BCS teams and 2 FCS teams. In those 4 games he put up 1,130 yards passing (30% of his season total), 16 TD passes (43%), 483 yards rushing (34%). He also got to feast on god awful teams like Auburn, Missouri, and Arkansas. The Alabama game was good, but the other marquee games he wasn't good and was carried by ESPN's disgusting hype machine.
You're just not really talking about the way he plays. You're just saying he put up big stats against statistically-inferior opponents. That's exactly what you would expect of CFB's best players, isn't it? I'm waiting for you to provide some analysis of the way he plays. So far your criticisms amount to little more than trying to invalidate his stats, which is pretty much the same as someone else trying to argue for how good he is by presenting his stats. The stats aren't a predictor of success. Tim Tebow? Great stats. His career isn't going so well. Cam Newton? Great stats. His career is off to a pretty great start. They both put up some big games against lesser opponents, and they both had a couple games when you'd have expected them to play better. That's just football.
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