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Old 09-22-2013, 09:21 PM    (permalink
jth1331
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
Can we at least wait until week 8 to debate the merits of this trade?
I think we'll need to wait a year or two at least.
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Old 09-22-2013, 09:31 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
Can we at least wait until week 8 to debate the merits of this trade?
Of course not. That would be rational and fair.
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Old 09-22-2013, 09:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by niel89 View Post
Can we at least wait until week 8 to debate the merits of this trade?
He'll be on the waiver wire by then so we have to do it now
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Old 09-22-2013, 09:57 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i thought running back is the position that college players shouldn't need any time to transition from college to the pros? why is trent suddenly special? if he sucks now, he sucks now.
I'm just not convinced he sucks yet. We've already seen that plenty of guys went on to have great careers after a low YPC in their first year. We're three games into the season and he's been with a new team for four days and faced a pretty damn good run defense. Forgive me for calling sample size into question.


...and to be clear, I'm not expecting Richardson to light the world on fire for the Colts either. Bradshaw was the better runner today. I just think it's a little silly to come to conclusions this quickly.
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Old 09-22-2013, 10:27 PM    (permalink
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i thought running back is the position that college players shouldn't need any time to transition from college to the pros? why is trent suddenly special? if he sucks now, he sucks now.
yeah, i hardly ever see guys who dance around and not hit the hole or dominate in the NFL that don't do it early in their career. RB is the spot where you can usually tell pretty early how good they are.
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Old 09-22-2013, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Well considering this is just his second season and he's been with the colts for less than a week, I'd say waiting a few more games is far from "infinite time"
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Old 09-22-2013, 10:28 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
i don't entirely disagree, that said:

1) when a guy plays like ****, it's ok to call him out for playing like ****. that doesn't mean he will forever, or even next week. and that goes for the people who want to dig up posts just to point out where someone was wrong. if he sucks next week, he sucks next week, and his performance in week 14 doesn't invalidate that.
2) guys can't have infinite excuses (see: david carr). sometimes they just can't hack it, regardless of their draft position. if richardson's problem really is vision, and it doesn't get fixed this season, it's not unreasonable to believe that it never will be fixed. there are a lot more guys who started bad and ended bad, than there are cedric bensons (if you even want to say he finished *well*).

i'm fine with "more time", but i hate when that turns into "infinite time".
I want to say Ceddy ended well :P He might not have been great, but I'm glad he came to Cincinnati and did what he did.

But I agree. Cedric never lived up to his draft price (especially for the team that drafted him lol) and if Richardson ends up with a similar performance, I'm not sure that it will be worth the 1st rounder that Indy gave up for him. And furthermore, Richardson hasn't proven anything yet so I think it's fair to say right now he's pretty average or even below average.
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Old 09-22-2013, 10:43 PM    (permalink
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and i'm absolutely not saying it is. but i've seen this movie before; there are always excuses for high profile players. unless they're jamarcus russell.
I certainly agree that some people will always be mesmerized by the recruiting hype and college accolades, but the numbers are out there as far as guys who have gone on to be successful runners in the NFL after being ineffective in the early goings. People can certainly be delusional about guys drafted high, but it's entirely reactionary to suggest Richardson is going to be a bad player for the Colts based on a single games worth of YPC stats. Blount has a higher YPC today than Rildey did. By that standard, he's a better runner than Ridley and Demarco Murray is the best runningback in the NFL.


That said, Richardson didn't look great today. We'll have to see how things go, but Bradshaw looks like the better runner right now by a fair margin.
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Old 09-22-2013, 11:34 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by njx9 View Post
and i'm absolutely not saying it is. but i've seen this movie before; there are always excuses for high profile players. unless they're jamarcus russell.
While that's certainly true, and people accuse me of doing the same thing for a guy like Sam Bradford, we're still not even close to knowing whether those people are right or just defending him for his hype. Come seasons end we should have a better idea, and next year we should know for sure, but right now it's too soon, and I don't even have a strong opinion on Richardson either way. I wasn't a huge fan of his coming out because I don't really watch much college football anymore, and I haven't seen enough of him to know whether his vision is truly a problem or just a convenient explanation people are jumping to because of his numbers, but I just thinking jumping to conclusions now is just silly.

Cause it may have just been the injuries, the predictable suck which was the browns offense last year, his vision, or even just his confidence. Behind that Alabama OL not only did he not have to think about what hole to hit, but he also had absolute confidence that they would be there and all he had to do was build momentum and fly through them. Now he's gotta think about where he's going and he's got a lot more doubts about whether there'll actually be a hole when he gets there. And that's something that can change completely after just a month or two.

Until we see what happens this year and next we won't know if Richardson just needed to sort some stuff out before becoming a stud, or if he just isn't good.
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:10 AM    (permalink
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I think we'll need to wait a year or two at least.
Why just a couple years? Let's give him a whole career! That way when he has one purple patch for 6 weeks like any of a hundred nondescript RBs who hang around the NFL for more than a couple years we can declare him not a bust!

Even Cedric Benson had that one year with Bengals.

I expect Trent will have a few decent games with the Colts because they're basically trying to replicate the Luck Stanford offense now that they have Pep Hamilton. They grabbed Trent because he fit the archetype there, the problem is he isn't special and will never be worth what they gave up. #3 overall was a sunk cost and the new Browns management rightly judged it that way. If we're being honest the only way he would've ever been worth #3 overall is if he was Adrian Peterson.

The Colts management taking a flier on him wasn't a bad move - giving up a 1st to do it was. You blow a 3rd day pick to trade for a power back if you need one, not a 1st. They should be using that 1st rounder next year on an offensive lineman who will stop Luck from being the most hit QB in the NFL.

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Old 09-23-2013, 06:27 AM    (permalink
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i think he helped y'all, but i don't think he was ever better than average. but you saw him play more than i did, so i'd concede it: it's totally possible i missed something.
No, you didn't miss anything; he was definitely pretty average. But like you said, he helped us win the division in '09 and that was fun to watch.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:03 AM    (permalink
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i thought running back is the position that college players shouldn't need any time to transition from college to the pros? why is trent suddenly special? if he sucks now, he sucks now.
This. Why does Trent need 2 years exactly?

Is his awful vision going to magically fix itself? I know people cited Benson, but Benson's problem early in his career was effort, not vision.

Reggie's problem was an inability to run btw the tackles early in his career and patience, not vision.

Trent runs hard. But he just has no vision. RB is a position that requires little to no transition in the NFL (as a runner, pass pro is a different story) so if he's averaging 3 YPC now I see no reason why anything is going to change.

And we can't even cite OL problems when the other 2 RBs on the same roster averaged higher YPC than Trent. And it's not like Trent got 5 carries, 12 carries is a large enough sample size.
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Old 09-23-2013, 10:00 AM    (permalink
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Is his awful vision going to magically fix itself? I know people cited Benson, but Benson's problem early in his career was effort, not vision.
As a guy who saw every snap of Benson's early career, I can definitely say that it wasn't effort. Benson ran HARD in his first two years. He led with his helmet, he churned his legs, he lunged forward when hit...he fought for every fraction of a yard he could get...it's just that he ran right at defenders.

When we had Jones and Benson, a lot of people wanted Benson to start because he ran with effort while Jones would run out of bounds to avoid contact like a girl.

No vision, but running with some power = 3 yards and a cloud of dust, just like Richardson.

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Old 09-23-2013, 10:19 AM    (permalink
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As a guy who saw every snap of Benson's early career, I can definitely say that it wasn't effort. Benson ran HARD in his first two years. He led with his helmet, he churned his legs, he lunged forward when hit...he fought for every fraction of a yard he could get...it's just that he ran right at defenders.

When we had Jones and Benson, a lot of people wanted Benson to start because he ran with effort while Jones would run out of bounds to avoid contact like a girl.

No vision, but running with some power = 3 yards and a cloud of dust, just like Richardson.
So you're basically saying Trent's ceiling is Cinncy's version of Cedric Benson?
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Old 09-23-2013, 10:39 AM    (permalink
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Benson's problems early in his career if I recall correctly were staying healthy and having Thomas Jones kicking butt as the Bears' starting RB. But yeah, he got better but was never worth anything near the 4th overall pick.
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Old 09-23-2013, 10:55 AM    (permalink
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The main problem for Trent is the argument that he doesn't have a OL to run behind right?

Bc apparently Cleveland's right side was garbage and Indy's OL is garbage.

Ok fine. But then if that's the case, that the guy needs a great OL to be productive, doesn't that justify trading him? Bc to be a 1st round RB taken that high, you need to be special. Adrian Peterson special. A guy who can make his own yards.

If Trent isn't that guy, and relies heavily on quality OL up front to be productive, how is he any different from any other mediocre RB? Bc the effort is there, but the production isn't.

And if that's the case, didn't Cleveland get away with murder for trading him for a 1st?
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:33 AM    (permalink
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so, going back to other rbs who started slower than expected... what was thomas jones' problem? laziness? knowshon moreno syndrome? vision?

he's the best counter-example i can think of to "running backs who suck their first two years never really recover".
Ladanian Tomlinson is the prime example of a RB who put up awful numbers as a rookie and ended up a stud.
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:37 AM    (permalink
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The main problem for Trent is the argument that he doesn't have a OL to run behind right?

Bc apparently Cleveland's right side was garbage and Indy's OL is garbage.

Ok fine. But then if that's the case, that the guy needs a great OL to be productive, doesn't that justify trading him? Bc to be a 1st round RB taken that high, you need to be special. Adrian Peterson special. A guy who can make his own yards.

If Trent isn't that guy, and relies heavily on quality OL up front to be productive, how is he any different from any other mediocre RB? Bc the effort is there, but the production isn't.

And if that's the case, didn't Cleveland get away with murder for trading him for a 1st?
So far it's just been a year, we don't know if it was the OL, his vision, him being hurt, him getting drained from having to carry old man weeden and losing his drive, him losing his confidence, or just girlfriend trouble off the field that was in his head. We have no clue at this point what's responsible for his low YPC, we'll have a better idea after this year.
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:45 AM    (permalink
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So far it's just been a year, we don't know if it was the OL, his vision, him being hurt, him getting drained from having to carry old man weeden and losing his drive, him losing his confidence, or just girlfriend trouble off the field that was in his head. We have no clue at this point what's responsible for his low YPC, we'll have a better idea after this year.
Or maybe he's just not that good?

I'm sorry but I have a hard time buying any of that. It's just terrible excuses for a mediocre player right now. I think people are trying to justify his draft status instead of just evaluating him for what he is: and so far that's a marginal RB.
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:47 AM    (permalink
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Instead of comparing him to say AP whom would certainly cost more than Trent how about comparing him to recent late 1st round picks at RB (which is what the Colts paid).

2013: None
2012: Doug Martin and David Wilson
2011: Mark Ingram
2010: Jahvid Best and if you stretch Ryan Mathews (12th pick)
2009: Donald Brown
2008: Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, and Chris Johnson

So going back five years are we really hammering on the Colts for taking Trent Richardson with a late 1st rounder given the success rates of late 1st round running backs over the same span?

Ahmad Bradshaw wasn't going to stay healthy for an entire season with all the touches and Trent actually meshes extremely well with the offensive scheme.

Perhaps allowing him to learn the scheme and work his way into the rotation would be fair before claiming he's a bust? I think you can fairly judge his running ability by the end of the year with his pass protection grades becoming more fair after he has a full offseason with the team.

In any case the Colts can ease him in nicely thanks to having Bradshaw and perhaps can piecemeal the playbook to expedite his acclimation into the team.
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:49 AM    (permalink
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If anything, that displays how terrible of an idea it is to draft a RB in the 1st round.

I've held the stance that this trade was good for both parties, but I think Cleveland definitely got the better end of the deal bc of how devalued the RB position has become.
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Old 09-23-2013, 11:58 AM    (permalink
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So you're basically saying Trent's ceiling is Cinncy's version of Cedric Benson?
Ehhhhh, not exactly. I mean, that's not reaaaaally his ceiling. He has all the physical skills necessary to be a hall of famer (as did Benson), so by definition his ceiling has to be higher than that...I just think from what I've seen of him that he's overwhelmingly unlikely to hit his ceiling and will continue to play like Benson. He really looks a lot like him from this side of the television.
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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let's keep in mind that i'm not saying trent is awful because of his rookie year. but LDT turned it on in his second season in a way that trent hasn't yet shown he's capable of. i don't think that's comparable. thomas jones, on the other hand, was truly awful for three years, before suddenly figuring it out.
After a week with his new team and two games with the old one we don't know yet if he's gunna turn it on. He still may as there's plenty of season to go.

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Or maybe he's just not that good?

I'm sorry but I have a hard time buying any of that. It's just terrible excuses for a mediocre player right now. I think people are trying to justify his draft status instead of just evaluating him for what he is: and so far that's a marginal RB.
Oh that's absolutely possible to, and I'm not trying to claim Trent is the next ldt or anything, just that there's a lot of different things that could've been the reason for him to underachieve if that's what he did. Regardless he's gunna have to start producing more this year and next, but we're not there yet to know.
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:41 PM    (permalink
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I am not going to say it was a mistake after one game but I am not yet sold on the trade. I hope he can learn some things from Bradshaw. TRich doesn't seem patient to wait for a block and just charges forward. Again though, one game. I haven't watched any of his Cleveland carries at all.
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Old 09-23-2013, 01:49 PM    (permalink
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And it's not like Trent got 5 carries, 12 carries is a large enough sample size.
It was 13, by the way...although you may as well knock one off since it was on the 1 yard line.

...and really? Since when? We're allowed to make definitive statements about a guy based on 13 carries now?

I think you guys are really out of your minds here. I agree completely that the early prognosis isn't good and I wasn't even the biggest fan of Trent coming out, but it's absolutely crazy to start saying so and so is the better option on a 13 carry sample size. That's just...I'm sorry dude, that's just straight up asinine. I can't even wrap my head around that. Dude had been with the team for all of four days before that. He probably doesn't even know the offense yet. That obviously has less effect on a runningback than any other offensive skill position, but give the guy a few games at least. I could go through the lists of second string runners who have put up better numbers than starting backs with similar carry number in games through the first three weeks...but it feel entirely too silly that it even needs to be said/done.


As far as debating if he was worth a first round pick from Indy? I get that. Even if he goes nuts and puts up 1400 yards for the season(which he probably won't do), you could make a very good argument that a late first round pick has tons more potential value than even a Pro Bowl caliber runningback.
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