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Old 12-05-2013, 12:47 PM    (permalink
mightytitan9
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Default Old Faces, New Places

This is a thread to discuss cap casualties, as well as free agents that will likely be on the move after this season.

CB Champ Bailey Broncos - Baileys career in Denver is likely over, he's 35 and is due 10m next season, all of which would be saved if cut. Cut or restructure very likely.

S Troy Polamalu Steelers
- Steelers are over next years projected cap, cutting him would account for 8+m in cap savings.

LT Levi Brown Steelers - They aren't going to pay him the $6+ due to him, he'll be cut or restructured.

WR Josh Morgan Redskins - Due to count 10.1m against the cap next year, the Redskins could save 6.3m by letting him go. I'd expect Washington to let him go and go after a big time WR.

DE Julius Peppers Bears - The Bears D, much like the Steelers has aged and declined. Peppers is due 18.1 against the cap next year, and the Bears could save 9.8 of that by letting him go.

QB Jay Cutler Bears - I get the feeling the Bears will let him test FA, unheard of for an above average QB in today's game. If Kyle Shanahan gets a head coaching job, I feel like Cutler may end up there. Don't discount Oakland and their cap space though.

RB Darren McFadden Raiders - I think Jerry Jones wants him, but knows he can't afford him. I've got to wonder if Bill Belichick would be interested in the disgruntled RB for a cap friendly deal?

RB Ben Tate Texans - He'll be the prize of FA for some team, but who? I think the top 2 candidates are Cleveland, Oakland, and as darkhorse candidates Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars - Someone will sign MJD whether it's to carry the load or not. If the Patriots don't end up with McFadden, MJD could find his way to New England on a cap friendly deal. If the Jags fail to get Tate, he could return.

WR Eric Decker Broncos - Peyton was spoiled with all his WRs in years past, Decker will leave via FA. I get the feeling Decker may remain in the division between Oakland (if they get a QB) and Kansas City (if they can make the cap room). I am not sure if the Patriots could make room for him, but he seems like a BB guy to me. Washington is another possibilty.

WR James Jones Packers- I think it's time he'll leave, and he may be heading to Oakland, Washington may be another option.

WR Hakeem Nicks Giants - Is this the year he finally goes home to Carolina?

LT Jared Veldheer Raiders - Resign with Oakland

LT Branden Albert Chiefs - I feel like he'll finally be a Dolphin. Oakland is possible if Veldheer does not resign, but I think he will.

LT Eugene Monroe Ravens - Resign with Baltimore

RT Michael Oher Ravens - Seahawks. It will be tight but I think they make room.

DE Jared Allen Vikings - I think he'll be heading to Denver. He can still play but needs help around him.

Going to try to do more FA predictions later.


Cowboys in trouble? They currently have 135m allocated to next year, the 2nd most in the league. Worse news? Only a handful of players can relieve the books of more than 1m in savings. The majority of their stars contracts would lead to a negative cap savings.

New Orleans currently has the highest allocated to next year, but has Will Smith, Roman Harper, Jabari Greer that would save over 16m if they were all 3 let go.

Heavy hitters in FA? The Raiders have only 47m accounted for in next years cap. That leaves nearly 75m in cap space, with the next highest team having around 35m.

Who else could you see on the move?
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Old 12-05-2013, 12:51 PM    (permalink
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Add Devin Hester to the mix
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Old 12-05-2013, 12:59 PM    (permalink
cmarq83
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You could potentially add Vince Wilfork to the mix as well. He's in the last year of his deal, at 33, with an Achilles injury. The Pats will save $8 million by cutting him, and they're in a bit of a cap pinch with Talib, Spikes, and Edelman all free agents.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:09 PM    (permalink
Trogdor
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Cowboys in trouble? They currently have 135m allocated to next year, the 2nd most in the league. Worse news? Only a handful of players can relieve the books of more than 1m in savings. The majority of their stars contracts would lead to a negative cap savings.
This is a fun story but completely overblown. They have massive base salaries with built-in restructures on a number of players.

Romo alone has a 13.5m BASE SALARY that was meant to be restructured. Ware 12.25m BASE. Carr 7.5 BASE.

Some call it "kicking the can down the road" but all there of those major contracts were signed with the built-in restructures so the cap situation isn't sneaking up on anyone. The three restructures above I believe put Dallas back under the cut and that's not including potential cuts such as Miles Austin, Kyle Orton, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Phil Costa, and Jermey Parnell whom depending on the timing of the cut would save Dallas 1m+ cap space each.

That being said carry on :D

On topic I'd say Miles Austin is in extreme peril for next year given William's development and the emergence of Cole Beasley in the slot.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:24 PM    (permalink
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you know your team is rebuilding when literally every player on that list except Cutler would be a massive upgrade.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:27 PM    (permalink
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Heavy hitters in FA? The Raiders have only 47m accounted for in next years cap. That leaves nearly 75m in cap space, with the next highest team having around 35m.
The Raiders have about 58m accounted for in next years cap including dead money (mostly from Huff and Flynn), so they're around 64 million in cap space. Still way more then any other team.

As far as Cutler, I think he's going to be a Bear next year unless he asks for Flacco money or close to Flacco money. Which is not impossible.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:38 PM    (permalink
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you know your team is rebuilding when literally every player on that list except Cutler would be a massive upgrade.
Keenan Allen > Josh Morgan :)
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I wouldn't be sir prized if he passed McCoy on the depth chart. I think he might have a better arm and accurate arm then him from the highlights I thought. He also got some wheels too help us prepare for QB's as Wilson , RG3 and other runners etc.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:44 PM    (permalink
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I heard Oakland will have close to 70 million in cap space, I know they are working on new deals for Veldheer and Houston right now, I wouldn't be surprised if they were to show interest in Jay Cutler if available, they gotta spend the money somewhere.

Jacksonville is also loaded. I wouldn't expect them to get too crazy but they could be the team that lands Michael Johnson to a huge deal.
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Old 12-05-2013, 01:50 PM    (permalink
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You could potentially add Vince Wilfork to the mix as well. He's in the last year of his deal, at 33, with an Achilles injury. The Pats will save $8 million by cutting him, and they're in a bit of a cap pinch with Talib, Spikes, and Edelman all free agents.
Its unfortunate that we have to consider resigning Edelmen over Wilfork, especially when you consider we just added Amendola who should have stepped into a more prominent role. Namely Edelmen's role but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. While it may be logical to cut Wilfork, I don't see BB pulling the trigger there. I think its more likely we go with letting Spikes or to a lesser extent Talib walk. Neither preferable imo.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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The problem with the Cowboys restructuring Ware and Romo is that they're going to cause a concurrent restructure next season because their base salaries are even higher, and they will have more guaranteed money behind them because of the previous restructure. The way the contracts are set up now, the Cowboys have outs relatively easily in the last 2 years of their respective deals. By converting salary to bonus you're tacking guaranteed money on at the end of those deals, and your essentially guaranteeing the next 3 years of those contracts to 2 mid-30 year olds, and tacking on dead money that you're eventually going to have to incur.

The Cowboys have an out this year, but it's hardly a glamorous one.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:04 PM    (permalink
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In November the Packers reportedly offered Raji a long-term deal worth $8mil/yr and he has yet to sign. That tells me he wants to go into UFA and if that happens there is a good chance he is gone. He's been good but not great and despite publicly towing the company line I don't think he likes playing in the 3-4.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:19 PM    (permalink
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The problem with the Cowboys restructuring Ware and Romo is that they're going to cause a concurrent restructure next season because their base salaries are even higher, and they will have more guaranteed money behind them because of the previous restructure. The way the contracts are set up now, the Cowboys have outs relatively easily in the last 2 years of their respective deals. By converting salary to bonus you're tacking guaranteed money on at the end of those deals, and your essentially guaranteeing the next 3 years of those contracts to 2 mid-30 year olds, and tacking on dead money that you're eventually going to have to incur.

The Cowboys have an out this year, but it's hardly a glamorous one.
Not really... I don't want to calculate down to vet minimum but even if you take 13 million in base converted to bonus 13/6 years = 2.16 million in each year afterwards. The following year is 16/5years = 3.63 million.

So Romo's new contract situation in 2018 would be: 19.5m BASE and 11.59m in bonuses. Meaning Dallas can still cut him and save 8 million. 2019 would be 20.5m base and 5.79m bonus meaning 14.71m savings.

Keep in mind the numbers above were used to demonstrate the numbers not the actual amounts restructured. Granted Romo's contract was ALWAYS meant to have this occur hence the lack of bonuses in the final two years.

Ware's contract certainly comes with some risk but even if something terrible were to happen and we restructured him this year and had to cut him the following year the team would face a break even (no savings from cutting). In 2016 and 2017 the dead money wouldn't come close to the base salaries so the team would be still be in a saving scenario.

So in the end yeah you are right about it guaranteeing Romo although that was the case even before restructuring. I absolutely agree that restructuring Ware has inherent risks but that's the situation the team has put themselves in :)
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:26 PM    (permalink
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The problem is can you really count on Romo to still be playing on a high level at that time? You've committed yourself to either keeping him or incurring dead money in those years. I wouldn't want to have to bet on Romo over the next 5 or 6 years instead of 3. Considering the lack of success of most older QB's outside of the historically good ones, it's a moderate sized risk.

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Old 12-05-2013, 02:30 PM    (permalink
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The problem is can you really count on Romo to still be playing on a high level at that time? You've committed yourself to either keeping him or incurring dead money in those years. I wouldn't want to have to bet on Romo over the next 5 years instead of 3.
In the interest of not turning this thread into a Romo arguing thread I'll purely stick to the contract. The team fully intended to restructure just by looking at the structure of the contract. I'd have a bigger issue with having Romo take 25 million in a cap charge simply to avoid restructuring.

It has been a staple of Stephen Jones since he took over contracts from his dad Jerry Jones.
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Old 12-05-2013, 02:36 PM    (permalink
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In the interest of not turning this thread into a Romo arguing thread I'll purely stick to the contract. The team fully intended to restructure just by looking at the structure of the contract. I'd have a bigger issue with having Romo take 25 million in a cap charge simply to avoid restructuring.

It has been a staple of Stephen Jones since he took over contracts from his dad Jerry Jones.
Fair enough, I just think that even with a reasonable restructure you're still looking at locking Romo up around $20 mil per year with an uncuttable contract until he hits 38, possibly 37 at the earliest, and even with that you're looking at around $5 million in dead money. It's far from an ideal situation.

The Pats did something similar with Brady and it made me uncomfortable, and I think his style of play is far more conducive to aging well than Romo's.

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Old 12-07-2013, 01:01 AM    (permalink
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Its unfortunate that we have to consider resigning Edelmen over Wilfork, especially when you consider we just added Amendola who should have stepped into a more prominent role. Namely Edelmen's role but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. While it may be logical to cut Wilfork, I don't see BB pulling the trigger there. I think its more likely we go with letting Spikes or to a lesser extent Talib walk. Neither preferable imo.
I would absolutely jettison Edelman in order to keep Wilfork on roster. New England's run defense went into the toilet this season without him, so I'd rather try my hand at finding another similar receiver for a more cap-friendly deal rather than getting rid of one of the top nose tackles in the league when the team is ranked thirty-first against the run without him. Spikes is probably the most notable candidate to leave if you ask me; the team drafted Jamie Collins in the second round last year, and could slide Hightower into the middle, where he might be more comfortable. Dane Fletcher is also a candidate to play in the middle.
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Old 12-07-2013, 08:25 AM    (permalink
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I would absolutely jettison Edelman in order to keep Wilfork on roster. New England's run defense went into the toilet this season without him, so I'd rather try my hand at finding another similar receiver for a more cap-friendly deal rather than getting rid of one of the top nose tackles in the league when the team is ranked thirty-first against the run without him. Spikes is probably the most notable candidate to leave if you ask me; the team drafted Jamie Collins in the second round last year, and could slide Hightower into the middle, where he might be more comfortable. Dane Fletcher is also a candidate to play in the middle.
I think most people don't realize just how much of an immense shell of himself Wilfork is going to be after this injury. This was the absolute worst thing that could have happened to a player of Wilfork's age and body type. I don't think it's a question of whether we would keep 2013 Wilfork at that salary, but rather if we'd keep 2014 Wilfork at that salary, when realistically we could sign an Arthur Jones or an Alan Branch type at half the price. We're probably going to have Kelly back, and we can add a younger DT in the draft.

I know we have issues stopping the run, but I'm not entirely sure a 33 year old post-achilles Wilfork with an 8 million base salary is the answer next season. I'd rather bet on a healthy 27 year old Spikes or a 28 year old Edelman with some of that money.
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Old 12-07-2013, 10:16 AM    (permalink
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I don't know why some fans seem so excited about the idea of their team getting Ben Tate. Good RB, but I have a feeling some team is going to overpay him.
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Old 12-07-2013, 10:22 AM    (permalink
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Carl Nicks might be in the mix. Has barely played a game for the Bucs since signing a huge contract.
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Old 12-07-2013, 11:22 AM    (permalink
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FWIW this was on Roto this a.m.

Quote:
ESPN Giants blogger Dan Graziano believes DE Mathias Kiwanuka could be a cap casualty in the offseason.
Kiwi is in the second year of a four-year, $21.75 million deal. He's scheduled to earn a $4.375 million salary and count over $7 million against the 2014 cap. The Giants would save just $1.8 million in 2014 by cutting him. Kiwanuka has appeared in all 12 games this season, making six starts and recording 24 tackles and four sacks. The G-Men may want to re-sign LE Justin Tuck.
Two players you didn't mention were Jon Asamoah and Alex Mack. Wonder if the Raiders would have interest in upgrading one of the OG spots with a player from a division rival or via bringing Mack back to the bay and moving either he or Wisniewski over to guard ?

If I am Reggie McKenzie 'd definitely be going all in to land Decker first and foremost, and hopeful to parlay my top 10 pick into a QB.
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Old 12-08-2013, 03:47 AM    (permalink
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I think most people don't realize just how much of an immense shell of himself Wilfork is going to be after this injury. This was the absolute worst thing that could have happened to a player of Wilfork's age and body type. I don't think it's a question of whether we would keep 2013 Wilfork at that salary, but rather if we'd keep 2014 Wilfork at that salary, when realistically we could sign an Arthur Jones or an Alan Branch type at half the price. We're probably going to have Kelly back, and we can add a younger DT in the draft.

I know we have issues stopping the run, but I'm not entirely sure a 33 year old post-achilles Wilfork with an 8 million base salary is the answer next season. I'd rather bet on a healthy 27 year old Spikes or a 28 year old Edelman with some of that money.
I don't know about that. Jason Peters tore his Achilles twice last year, he's from the same draft class as Wilfork, weighs about the same, and has basically stepped back into the starting lineup as effective as ever. Terrell Suggs entered the league before either of them and is playing at a high level as well.
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Old 12-08-2013, 12:56 PM    (permalink
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I don't know why some fans seem so excited about the idea of their team getting Ben Tate. Good RB, but I have a feeling some team is going to overpay him.
Next Michael Turner type pick up imo. He's going to go to some team and be a very good back for the next 3-4 years. Their stats are very similar throughout their first three seasons, both stuck behind All-Pro backs. Not the plodder Turner was but he's also better catching the ball.
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Old 12-08-2013, 06:44 PM    (permalink
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Carl Nicks might be in the mix. Has barely played a game for the Bucs since signing a huge contract.
Donald Penn could possibly (hopefully!) be on his way out, too, depending on what the Bucs do in the draft.
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Old 12-08-2013, 06:51 PM    (permalink
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Next Michael Turner type pick up imo. He's going to go to some team and be a very good back for the next 3-4 years. Their stats are very similar throughout their first three seasons, both stuck behind All-Pro backs. Not the plodder Turner was but he's also better catching the ball.
Very good comparison. I like Ben Tate but I'm not blown away by him and I wouldn't give him that big contract. He will probably have some good success at first as well, but I don't like his injury history. He has missed a lot of games and always has something hurting.
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Old 12-16-2013, 02:17 PM    (permalink
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How has peppers been playing this year? How much do you think he will get in FA? might be a good fit for the falcons
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