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Old 01-22-2014, 12:27 PM    (permalink
danhogansl
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Default 2014 1st round mock w/ trades and explanations.

1. Houston Texans - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
I doubt that Houston passes on their QB of the future despite Clowney and J.J. Watt being so enticing for them. Bridgewater is as ready as it gets in this draft class at QB, they could give Manziel a look due to him putting people in seats and would really spark the franchise.
Bridgewater offers a good touch, smart decision making, and is good on the run, which would really allow a Foster-Bridgewater-Johnson offense to offer a lot for them.

2. Cleveland Browns (via St. Louis Rams) - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Cleveland doesn’t clean their draft picks out, I could see them offering both first rounds pick, but in this situation of a trade, they look to keep pick 26, and trade their 2014 1st, 2014 2nd, 2015 2nd. Not sure if the value is there but they’re looking to jump Jacksonville, who I could see taking Manziel. Manziel, Gordon combo makes for a scary good offense, and with Jordan Cameron, Cleveland has some serious firepower for their new coaching staff to work with whomever it may be.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
They go local and take the Ryan Tannehill of the draft. Bortles is a big bodied, physical QB, who has displayed great pocket presence and playmaking capabilities. He comes from a smaller school which scares some people but after his bowl game, I think he proved himself to me despite an uneven performance, and Jacksonville is ready to move on from the Gabbert issue.

4. St. Louis Rams (via Cleveland Browns) - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Rare instance where they can trade just far enough down and still snag their guy. Watkins and the Rams would be scary when matched up with their newly found running game assuming it stays and Tavon Austin. Bradford, Cook, Austin, and Watkins, no excuse for Bradford now.

5. Oakland Raiders - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
Oakland has so many issues that this pick only makes sense. Take the best player on the board, who probably happens to be the most talented player in this draft. Oakland had no pass rush this past season, Clowney can’t fix it alone, but he’ll help open up the other players by forcing double teams and chip blocking. Watch for Oakland to trade back with someone like Minnesota hoping to snag a QB if one falls.

6. Atlanta Falcons - Anthony Barr, OLB/DE?, UCLA
Barr has the off the ball quickness to be a 15+ sack player. He’s a major reason outside of Hundley that UCLA was as good as they were. He’s reminds me of a Von Miller and has similar explosiveness, and he hustles hard, go on Youtube and watch when he gets sacks after the play has broken down. Relentless. Watch for Atlanta to make a trade with someone like Houston.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jake Mathews, OT, Texas A&M
Tampa needs line help, Carl Nicks may not play supposedly (don’t quote me on this), and they are looking more and more like giving Glennon the reins, so if they’re going to do that, they should protect him and Doug Martin. Mathews can block all over the field, look at how well he protected Manziel, he’s more mechanically sound that last years number two pick, Joeckel, as well.

8. Minnesota Vikings - Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Jared Allen may retire here soon, Minnesota has new staff, and their defense just wasn’t good enough. They could go a lot of ways, and with Carr around they could go there, but I don’t see them reaching on him. (Yes, Carr is a reach in this spot). Mack is a multi tool LB who would bring a spark to their defense. They do run a 4-3 and I can see there being a disagreement with this pick, but I think that Mack has the skills to run a 4-3 OLB in Minnesotas scheme. Jared Allen is a UFA, and likely will be on the move, making a need for a pass rusher much higher.

9. Buffalo Bills - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
Buffalo needs help in a lot of places, with the whole line being mediocre at best. Robinson is a big boy who just came off a National Championship game and opened huge holes for Tre Mason and friends. He’d be a great addition and highly appericated by C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, and help E.J. Manuel progress this upcoming season.

10. Detroit Lions - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
I want to slot a receiver here, I want them to take a Corner, but they need a shutdown corner. Dennard over Gilbert for one reasons here: Dennard is a psychical, strong, big corner who can take away a whole side of the field. He is the reason Michigan State was as good as they were, he was a leader, and huge. Plus, him being from in state means he’s use to the weather, and likely would be ecstatic to stay close to home.

11. Tennessee Titans - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
Taylor Lewan had a down season, maybe it was because he knew he was a high draft pick, lack of scenery, or just not playing well. He’s still one of the best OT in this draft, and the Titans even if they release Chris Johnson are going to need to solidify their front.

12. New York Giants - Cyrus Kouandijo, OT, Alabama
Eli Manning through a ton of picks for one main reason, and that was his line. You can blame his lack of a running game, but he really was under pressure and had to force stuff. Adding a big, Alabama refined blocker would make him sleep easier at night.

13. St. Louis Rams - HaHa Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
They need help in their secondary, they have a mean front seven with Laurinaitis, Long, Quinn etc, but could use some help behind Jenkins. Clinton-Dix is a top tier safety and would aid them with his physicality in the run and his elite coverage skills.

14. Chicago Bears - C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
Chicago needs to move on at linebacker, and they really missed having Urlacher, and had no depth without Lance Briggs. Enter Mosley, who was the leader of one of the best defenses in the nation, and would bring leadership to this defense. They brought Tillman back, and the Bears would be a better team if they were to add Mosley. They could go a lot of ways on defense, but adding a linebacker is extremely important.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
I could see Nix going here, but I don’t think that’ll happen. Gilbert is a top end corner in this draft and the Steelers took a step back on defense, allowing a lot more passes that they haven’t in previous years. Gilbert is a extremely good cover corner and has great vision. I am not sure if the Steelers let Lee/Evans past them either though, so either could go here too.

16 or 17. Baltimore Ravens - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
Flacco missed Boldin, you could tell. Torrey Smith can be a legit #1, but Mike Evans would really help Flacco out. Let’s be serious, Jacoby Jones has no business playing as a legit #2, he’s a #3 at best and Evans would add a catch in traffic anywhere on the field threat to a potent Ravens offense.

16 or 17. Dallas Cowboys - Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame
Hatcher played well, but he’s a FA this coming season and the Nix pick makes a lot of sense. If they cannot retain Hatcher, Nix is the man for the job.

18. Arizona Cardinals (Via New York Jets)- Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
Arizona’s improved a lot and will only get better with Cooper coming back after a early season injury, but they look to keep improving this line. Palmer isn’t the answer and they could go for Carr here, but I doubt they will. They’ll take the best OT on the board and look to keep improving up front. They’ve killed it in rounds 2,3,4,5 lately and will look to keep that going as well. (See Ellington, Mathieu etc.)
This trade happens because they jump Miami and stop them from taking Martin, which would likely happen.

19. Miami Dolphins - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
Jernigan is the best on the board and they could add some depth and talent to their defense with this pick. They would be a better defense with Jernigan. They need a OT, but the Cardinals jump them with the Jets 1st pick. They likely would trade back in this situation, but I cannot find a good trade partner and just have decided to go with BPA despite the glaring need at OL. The other thing is both of there tackles are FA’s, and may not be retained, making this pick a lot more sensible.

20. New York Jets (Via Miami Dolphins) - Marqise Lee, WR, USC
The Jets finally add the offense talent they’ve been looking for. Geno Smith would have a new option, as Stephen Hill isn’t shaking out how they want and they really don’t have a receiving threat. Lee is the 3rd best receiver in this draft and they’re jumping for joy with him falling here. Could Rex take a defensive player here? Yes, wouldn’t blow my mind, but Lee would have Geno jumping for joy.

21. Green Bay Packers - Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
Everyone will say that they have bigger needs, but the Packers always get the steals of the draft (See: Eddie Lacy, Aaron Rodgers), and they seem to always get better. They take a new toy for Rodgers and look to keep building on their strong offense, and we do not know if Finley returns to the same player. Quarless did a good job, but the Packers use tight ends all over and Ebron is pure talent. This is more of a luxury pick and TT is the type of guy to make this move. They could trade back too, or draft Kony (which I see as a more likely fit), but for now, I am going to slot Ebron here.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - Calvin Pryor, FS, Louisville
The Eagles need defense help and Pryor is the best FS on the board still. I could see them taking Roby from OSU here too, but Williams played decent and they need help at safety. They haven’t had a strong safety group sense Dawkins left. The eagles likely trade back in this situation.

23. Kansas City Chiefs - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
I considered Tuitt here, but the need for someone outside of Charles and a streaky Bowe is just too large. Benjamin just won a national championship, and is a big time threat. He is a lot like Mike Evans in the sense that he is great after the catch, and the Chiefs need someone like that on the field for them.

24. Cincinnati Bengals - Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU
I bet his draft stock goes higher after the combine. He’s so pyshically gifted and the Bengals just keep adding to a already super talented front 7. He would bring the heat off the edge, plus James Harrison won’t be playing that much longer, and having him watch and play some behind him would be a great move.

25. San Diego Chargers - Bradley Roby, CB, OSU
The San Diego Chargers pass defense was awful. In a divison where they have to play Peyton Manning twice a year, you need to play good pass defense. Roby has gotten in some trouble but is still a strong, well rounded corner, that in the right enviornment could be really good.

26. Cleveland Browns (via Indianapolis Colts) - De’Anthony Thomas, RB/WR, Oregon
Thomas is Mr. do it all, reminds me of Tavon Austin. His 40 and testing will bring his stock up, and Manziel, Jordan, Gordon with a Thomas all over the field…? I mean seriously, you can’t cover them all, too much offense talent.
This would be a major reach for Cleveland, but Hyde/Mason could come into play here, but I think with the combine, someone will gamble on this high risk, high reward player.

27. New Orleans Saints - Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee
Let me put this out: Drew Brees, Blindside, Armstead. Not a whole lot of good comes out of this, they would add some depth to a great offensive line and look to keep it going. Armstead could move, they could protect their QB a lot better as well.

28. Carolina Panthers - Odell Beckham Jr, WR, LSU
LaFell isn’t going to work. Steve Smith is old. Beckham is an animal of a receiver who is very talented and would let Cam Newton really keep that offense going. They took a large stride forward this season, but to keep that stride turning over, they need to add more offensive firepower.

29. New England Patriots - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
43% of Tom Brady’s passes were sent towards their Tight Ends. Remember Gronk and our least favorite murderer, Hernandez? Seferian Jenkins is super athletic. He may have gotten a DUI last summer, but Belichick is the man to take him and keep him out of trouble. A no goof, no mess around organization who are known for this.

30. San Francisco 49ers - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
He was voted the best defensive linemen in CFB, San Fran always loves to add more defensive talent and they’ll keep improving, Donald is really good and can help a solid front. They have a huge need at CB/WR, but this class seems to be deep at these positions and I think could be addressed later rather than sooner. I think a team will fall in love with Donald.
31. Denver Broncos - Kony Early, DE, Missouri

They lost Dumervil to the fax incident, and that’s why they’re drafting a defensive end here. Not much of a need here, they take the best player left. This would be a steal for Denver if Kony falls this far.

32. Seattle Seahawks - Jordan Mathews, WR, Vanderbilt
Tate, Rice, Harvin, Mathews would be a really good receiving group, which they need to add to this. Not a whole lot to explain here, just like above.
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Old 01-22-2014, 04:16 PM    (permalink
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Like Bortles to Jacksonville. I don't feel the same about Mosley to the Bears. The Bears have some young linebackers so I'd rather give them a chance and focus on the defensive line or secondary.
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Brilliant letting one of Scott Pioli's henchmen have his own team to ruin.  One of the premier GM jobs in the NFL and it gets handed to a stupid **** who makes three facepalm moves for every good one.  Awesome.  Just like handing a new Mercedes to a 16 year old girl who's already been in three wrecks. 
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Old 01-22-2014, 04:37 PM    (permalink
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I like Ebron as a player, but I just can't see Ted ignoring the defense in round 1. I think the Packers will look around the other tight ends in later rounds and go mostly defense to start.
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Old 01-22-2014, 04:58 PM    (permalink
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Jernigan wouldn't be a bad pick in that situation, but if we are going Defensive Line, I would prefer Stephon Tuitt or Ra'Shede Hageman at 19.

All in all, the offense needs to be addressed before the defense, so if all the top OT's are gone, I could see them snagging the top guard available, David Yankey, or maybe a TE like Ebron or ASJ there instead.
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Old 01-22-2014, 05:45 PM    (permalink
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Unless Jernigan has a Warren Sapp like combine performance, Hageman is the likely first interior Dlineman selected.
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:07 AM    (permalink
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Love the trade down for the Jets, even if it nets us just a 3rd or 4th round pick.

I am good with Lee in a trade down but boy I would really want Ebron after that trade down....i'd be cool with him at 18, but getting him with a small trade down should get Idzik a room of applause.
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Old 01-23-2014, 02:43 PM    (permalink
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Love Mosely to the Bears
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:30 PM    (permalink
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That is worst case scenario for Cleveland. Just an absolute nightmare.
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Old 01-23-2014, 05:36 PM    (permalink
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Rather have Aaron Donald for the boys, the value may not seem to fit right now but it will come May. Or you can have them trade back and take him.

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Old 01-23-2014, 06:47 PM    (permalink
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Ok pick for Sf.
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Old 01-23-2014, 07:28 PM    (permalink
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Belichick won't draft Seferian-Jenkins
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Old 01-24-2014, 03:05 AM    (permalink
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I just don't see Andy Reid not going for a defensive lineman.
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:13 AM    (permalink
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Love the Bengals pick. Nice work.
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Old 01-24-2014, 01:36 PM    (permalink
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Bad pick for the Saints. Armstead struggled in his first start against Greg Hardy and the Carolina defense but played very well thereafter. In fact, the entire offensive line played better with him in the lineup, especially running the football. We might need to take a RT at some point with Strief a FA and depth maybe a concern. But Armstead is the LT!
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Old 01-24-2014, 06:24 PM    (permalink
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That is worst case scenario for Cleveland. Just an absolute nightmare.
Sadly, that sounds pretty realistic for the Brown Nation.

For the Packers, that would be a very tough call between the TE Ebron and the S Calvin Pryor.
We need more help at S for sure..... can live without a great TE. Won the Super Bowl with J-Mike on IR.

But if Ebron is really thaaaat good, I can live with the pick.
But if Pryor can have an instant impact like Harrison Smith 2 years ago or Nacho Vacarro last year, that will help more because the defense, especially the safety play, sucks dick.
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Old 01-25-2014, 01:48 AM    (permalink
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Very well done, an excellent mock with solid reasoning. Shows a lot of homework done.
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Old 01-25-2014, 03:00 AM    (permalink
niel89
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I like Evans for Baltimore. He is a big body who can bail Flacco out hopefully. Torrey, Evans and Pitta is a nice group to pass to.

Not sure if I see a fit with Donald and the 49ers. Would he be the NT in that defense? Id be worried he is too small for that role. I do love his ability to rush inside though. Teams will value hos interior pass rush as the draft gets closer. Look at a guy like Watt who makes his money being dynamic on the inside.
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Old 01-25-2014, 12:05 PM    (permalink
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No idea what Donald would do in SF
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