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Old 05-01-2014, 12:13 PM    (permalink
twiz
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
*ramble*
I was pointing out how you think ESPN bases their board off of NFL.com.
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Old 05-01-2014, 12:59 PM    (permalink
badgerbacker
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I've actually studied the effects of NFL.com on original rankings by Scott and other reliable sources and their original rankings could be described as very weak compared to what it looks like once NFL.com's rankings come out and suddenly there is a significant change in everybody's ranking. I've seen years where everybody choice for #1 early in the season, didn't even end up going round 1.

Anybody who denies that NFL.com rankings are reflected in their own rankings is living in a dream world. Even if they don't read a word about the rankings on NFL.com, their ranking slip into all the reliable sources we all use, often posted on this and other sites, and are picked up by everyone whether they admit it or not, in one way or another.

That's why nobody on this site will likely ever be pro scouts, there is no reality check for their opinions. It's a hobby guys, nothing more.
Do you think it is at all possible that nfl.com's rankings are slightly influenced by the public's general consensus about prospects? That is another explanation for changes in rankings occurring at the same time.

There is a high correlation between days I wear a coat and days that it is cold outside. That doesn't mean that I control the weather at all.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:03 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by jrdrylie View Post
If you have no idea, fine. I have no idea how good Jimmy Garoppolo and Brett Smith are going to be because I've seen them play a combined one time. But I also don't have them ranked as my top QB and a top-ten player.

I disagree with your statement that you can't have an intelligent opinion on him. He is no different than any other QB. You judge his arm strength, accuracy, pocket presence, athleticism, and other things. You make judgements on intangibles like character and leadership ability. You put that all together and you form an opinion. Just because Manziel runs around like a chicken with his head cut off half the time does not mean you can't form an opinion on him.
This is the disconnect. You can picture how guys like Garoppolo and Smith can translate to the league.

Manziel is the most unique and difficult player to evaluate in modern draft history. You can judge all the things you listed - but after you do - you're left with the same questions if not more.

You can form an opinion, sure. But I contend that it's not a good one. There isn't a good one. We have never ever seen a football player like him - not even close. He's going to have to change so much, yet there's no reason not believe that his unprecedented style/height/intangibles won't translate. The truth is - this kid's game SHOULD NOT have translated to the SEC. It did. Now what? Pretty much every major question/red flag is seen on his tape, but he has the pre-requiste arm strength, he still has room to grow, and he makes plays NO ONE else can make. It's way more complex than trying to figure out if Garoppolo can adjust to a difficult system by becoming quicker, and react to pressure. You can guess one way or the other on that and have a good argument. With Manziel there's no point. Either way you're biased. If you pick him to fail - you're ignoring how truly special as a football player he is, his competitiveness and intelligence, and his arm/legs. If you pick him to succeed - you're ignoring millions of bad habits on and off the field, durability questions, height, and most importantly - the effectiveness of his relationship with his pro coaches.

Predicting his career is just noise. You need to know what QB coach, what system, his supporting cast, etc. And that's besides two of his most important non-football questions - durability and off-field maturity/celebrity.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:04 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I've actually studied the effects of NFL.com on original rankings by Scott and other reliable sources and their original rankings could be described as very weak compared to what it looks like once NFL.com's rankings come out and suddenly there is a significant change in everybody's ranking. I've seen years where everybody choice for #1 early in the season, didn't even end up going round 1.
Other than Matt Barkley, who does this list include?
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:06 PM    (permalink
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http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/01/2014-n...rback-experts/

This article was tremendous too.

The bit about Reid and the wonderlic is hilarious. Holmgren's take is interesting but not surprising.

Flutie's obvious frustration and generational (and athletic) jealousy is kind of depressing.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:07 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
Other than Matt Barkley, who does this list include?
Geno Smith, Brady Quinn, Brian Brohm, off of the top of my head. Although I guess Quin. Went late round 1.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:14 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by BamaFalcon59 View Post
Geno Smith, Brady Quinn, Brian Brohm, off of the top of my head. Although I guess Quin. Went late round 1.
It took a special breed of fool to ever buy into Geno Smith as a #1 overall pick. And Brian Brohm was never considered a potential #1 overall pick to anyone outside of the Brohm family, Stafford was the consensus #1 from the day his Junior year started.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:18 PM    (permalink
twiz
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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
It took a special breed of fool to ever buy into Geno Smith as a #1 overall pick. And Brian Brohm was never considered a potential #1 overall pick to anyone outside of the Brohm family, Stafford was the consensus #1 from the day his Junior year started.
Agree with this here. I don't recall Brohm even in the discussion...
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:23 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by twiz View Post
Agree with this here. I don't recall Brohm even in the discussion...
Oops I was looking at the wrong year in 2009, he was drafted in 2008, but even then he was well behind Matt Ryan who was the consensus #1 QB.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:26 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by ImBrotherCain View Post
I can't wait to see what ever team that takes Manziel in the 1st tank terribly... I hope its the damn Vikequeens.
We don't usually disagree but.......he'll be a significant upgrade in Jax, Cle and Minn.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by MassNole View Post
Oops I was looking at the wrong year in 2009, he was drafted in 2008, but even then he was well behind Matt Ryan who was the consensus #1 QB.
Well that would explain why lol. But yeah, still accurate.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:29 PM    (permalink
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We don't usually disagree but.......he'll be a significant upgrade in Jax, Cle and Minn.
If he develops well. If Cleveland takes him, he's sitting a year behind Hoyer.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:32 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by gpngc View Post
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/01/2014-n...rback-experts/

Flutie's obvious frustration and generational (and athletic) jealousy is kind of depressing.
Yeah, especially notable here:

MELBOURNE BEACH, Fla.—“He would be perfect for Chip Kelly,” says Doug Flutie, who was Manziel before there was a Manziel, watching Manziel video in his home hard by the Atlantic Ocean.


i lollllldddd they still haven't fixed it.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:33 PM    (permalink
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We don't usually disagree but.......he'll be a significant upgrade in Jax, Cle and Minn.
I don't like him. I don't think he should be going in the first round, let alone the first half of the first round. I see him as the Anti Tebow but I fully expect him to have the same type of career that Tebow did.

Short and unimpressive.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:43 PM    (permalink
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If he develops well. If Cleveland takes him, he's sitting a year behind Hoyer.
It would be brutal to watch him behind Jacksonville's OL, at least Cleveland has someone who can protect his blind side.
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Old 05-01-2014, 01:47 PM    (permalink
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It would be brutal to watch him behind Jacksonville's OL, at least Cleveland has someone who can protect his blind side.
Well, I can't remember how Joeckel looked prior to his injury, but he is there. For what it's worth.
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Old 05-01-2014, 02:00 PM    (permalink
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Well, I can't remember how Joeckel looked prior to his injury, but he is there. For what it's worth.
Well they did trade Eugene Monroe, but well the Jaguars gonna Jag.
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Old 05-01-2014, 02:01 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Iamcanadian View Post
I've actually studied the effects of NFL.com on original rankings by Scott and other reliable sources and their original rankings could be described as very weak compared to what it looks like once NFL.com's rankings come out and suddenly there is a significant change in everybody's ranking. I've seen years where everybody choice for #1 early in the season, didn't even end up going round 1.

Anybody who denies that NFL.com rankings are reflected in their own rankings is living in a dream world. Even if they don't read a word about the rankings on NFL.com, their ranking slip into all the reliable sources we all use, often posted on this and other sites, and are picked up by everyone whether they admit it or not, in one way or another.

That's why nobody on this site will likely ever be pro scouts, there is no reality check for their opinions. It's a hobby guys, nothing more.
The guys at NFL.com aren't even in agreement with each other. They all have their own mock drafts that at times are significantly different. Who's are we supposed to pay attention to?

If you're just saying that they effect the general stock of these prospects then I'd say that's not really true. What players have had significant changes in their stocks this offseason that weren't caused by their performance at the combine or another offseason activity? It's not as if there were guys that draftniks considered 4th round picks that suddenly became 1st rounders after NFL.com posted their rankings.

You say that you've seen years where the consensus #1 guy before the season doesn't go in the 1st round. Who do you think is calling him the #1 guy before the season? The guys at NFL.com. Everybody adjusts their rankings throughout the year as they get a better idea of these prospects.
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Old 05-01-2014, 03:40 PM    (permalink
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Come on bro... you're better than that.
It's like you've never seen one of his posts...

NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com NFL.com

Just over and over and over, treating it like the gospel; like Jerry Jones took a break from being a crazy billionaire cowboy and walked NFL.com's reporters through his draft board because he just respects them so damned much.

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There is a high correlation between days I wear a coat and days that it is cold outside. That doesn't mean that I control the weather at all.
We don't know that. You have a long relationship with the weather. The weather probably asks for your advice and tells you months in advance what it's going to do.
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Old 05-01-2014, 03:44 PM    (permalink
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yeah but..

MONOMACH, THESE GUYS IS EX SCOUTS THO
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Old 05-01-2014, 04:12 PM    (permalink
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I personally only respect 3 posters on NFL.com/NFL Network, Mayock, Charley Casserley and Gil Brandt. They have shown me over the years that they are usually pretty close to what actual happens on draft day. I may occasional post other ex scouts ETC. from NFL.com, but it is just for conversation and to sir up interest in the draft. I don't give their mocks or rankings much importance.

I would post from other draft sites but Scott doesn't permit posting from his rivals.

I don't post for the regulars on this site, I assume they are already well aware of where to look for draft info, I post these rankings for the beginners who may not know where to look for draft information.

Funny though, how much the haters go in and look at my posts and comment on them, but say they have zero interest in them. For me, if you are not the least bit interested in what Mayock, Casserley and Gil Brandt have to say on the draft, you aren't a true draftnik, just some egotist who thinks he knows better than everybody else and usually, their predictions go down in smoke on draft day, because they don't do their homework.

Nobody is saying these 3 guys are G-Ds on the draft, but they offer a perspective on prospects from which you can look at your own big board and at least see where you may have to take a second look. Of course, egotists can never admit for a moment that their initial rating may have a problem, they are too perfect for that.
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Old 05-01-2014, 07:14 PM    (permalink
BamaFalcon59
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Brohm definitely had top hype after his junior season. Then Petrino left.
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Old 05-01-2014, 11:47 PM    (permalink
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http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packe...257585891.html

Another good read. 8 personnel men said he'd be a hit, 12 said he'd be a miss.

Still more questions than answers.

I just watched some Mike Evans and I did at times have the thought the scout said a while back (that Evans might have bailed Manziel out a lot - I think his words were that Evans "made" Manziel). In the end I think both were great for each other and I wouldn't ding either for having the other and utilizing him for maximum performance.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:46 AM    (permalink
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I hope he does good.

Usually guys that just win, or has has a history of winning, finds a way to get it done. Don't really work out in the NFL for some reason or another.
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Old 05-02-2014, 12:06 PM    (permalink
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Cleveland should take Evans and then trade up for Manziel
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