2009 NFL Mock Draft Champ
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: South Florida
My Take on the #1 Pick
WARNING: LONG POST! :)
Look as this logic everyone and see if you either agree and just see the angle I am coming from.
These past two days from the Owners' Meeting have answered almost all questions for the #1 pick, IMO. Today, Sparano really cleared things up. At least for me anyway. He denounced just about every prospect except Vernon Gholston and Chris Long.
McFadden is out: Sparano mentioned today how he would like to get Lorenzo Booker on the field more and find more plays to utilize him as a player. He mentioned that he feels confident that Ronnie will be back in time and ready for camp. He also said that having to find carries for Ricky and Ronnie both this season is a good problem to have.
Glenn Dorsey is out: Well they finally did it! The FO has announced that we will be running a full-fledged 3-4 this season on defense. If that alone doesn't exclude Dorsey from our plans. This probably does: Sparano named the likely starters for next season as Roth at DE, Ferguson at NT, and Holiday at the other End. He also mentioned that new FA pickup Randy Starks has the ability to play all positions on that line and will be the primary backup for all three. Not to mention our up and coming youngsters Rodrique Wright and Paul Soliai. So whichever position, E or NT you were thinking Dorsey might fit at, he won't, at least not for us anyway!
Matt Ryan is out: This is what I feel really good about, as a big John Beck Supporter. Sparano has talked in length the past two days about how impressed he is with Beck as a worker and the progression he is making as a player. He also mentioned how he sees him as a part of the Future nucleus of this team along with Ronnie and Teddy Ginn. Just to add to it, he mentioned that having a young QB in the league getting ready to start is something very hard to do. Beck has SOME experience in the NFL, Ryan has NONE. From that perspective, Ryan will have to go through more of a progression when he enters the league. There are not many young QB's that come in and are ready to contribute right away. This will not be any different for Mr. Ryan. It just seems to me that they are already having to do this with Beck, why would they want to take another young QB at #1 and have to do this with him as well. It seems like this FO wants to win sooner rather than later and Beck gives them the slight edge in that department, IMO.
Jake Long is out: It has been talked about on here that Ireland does not believe in drafting based on need early on in the draft. OT seems to be our biggest need in this draft, and if Ireland goes based on BPA, Jake is certainly not that, especially because he will never be an ELITE Left Tackle in the NFL based on the perspective of many NFL draft experts. And if he is a RT for sure, then the value is certainly not there with the #1 overall pick. I don't know of many NFL Teams who would put the ultimate premium of the #1 pick in the draft on a Right Tackle. (Unless we had a Lefty QB, of course. But we don't!) All of this speculation alone should put the Jake Long to Miami supporters to rest. But that was before Sparano dropped the "bombshell" today that Vernon Carey will remain out starting LEFT TACKLE next season. The common fan would look at this and not think much of it. Not us. Not the same Miami Dolphins that are fluttering helplessly day in and day out for answers, any slight hints as to what we will do with the all important Number One overall pick. Well, Sparano gave it today! Sort of. It won't be Jake Long at least. If Carey is our for sure LT heading into next season, no questions asked, then Jake Long would be our RT, if drafted #1. And that my friends, simply wil not happen. Especially when our New VP of football operations, Mr. Bill Parcells does not put a premium on drafting OT's early on in the draft. ESPECIALLY RIGHT TACKLES! Most of time, his philosophy is that you can find quality ones later on in the draft that can help out significantly, and that is certainly the case with a RT, as there are some very quality ones in the 2nd-4th round range this year. Guys such as Gosder Cherilus, Sam Baker, Carl Nicks, Anthony Collins, King Dunlap, Duane Brown, Barry Richardson, etc. are all ones that come to mind as very possible, cheaper solutions at RT. And trust me, the "Big Tuna" knows this, which is why he won't waste the #1 pick on Jake Long, who could be better than all of those guys at RT, maybe or maybe not, but certainly not at the price of what the # 1 pick will garner. Like it or not, it's the truth!
Now it comes to to the other Long, Chris, and The Hul....I mean Vernon Gholston. My logic says that if Jason Taylor is not dealt at all, Vernon Gholston is the pick for sure. The reason being, at the risk of contradicting myself and my previous argument against Ryan, is the immediate impact standpoint. With JT as one of the greatest mentors of all time at the same position, it could help Gholston to learn the nuances of the position early on. He may have to sit for the first few games, or be a situatial pass rusher to start the season off. Most people would cringe at this idea. But my reasoning is that, in time, and with the right coaching or leadership, Gholston WILL be a better Pro than Chris Long. That is a HUGE IF though. He has all the potential in the world and I see him as having a Joey Porter-like impact on the league, from Joey's dominant days in Pittsburgh. The comparison stems from Porter's below average coverage abilities for the majority of his career, and his superior pass rushing abilities. I see the same attributes for Gholston and how his career will pan out. Funny I mention Porter though because that is who Gholston would likely replace at OLB later into the season if he was the pick. Let's get one thing straight, our #1 pick will contribute early and often, he will not be brought in to sit on the bench, not for long anyway. That being the case, VG would likely finish out the season opposite JT at OLB, with Porter switching roles with VG as the situational pass rusher (If you ask me, that's what he is better suited for anyway at this point of his career), or possibly Porter even kicking inside to finish out the season. Many of you cringe at thsi idea as well, but for as bad as Porter is in coverage or how bad of a fit many of you think he would be at ILB, I have a hard time believing he won't be better there than Reggie Torbor, Charlie Anderson, or even his possible inside mate Channing Crowder. As well, it would give Pasqualoni a better 2nd option than than he had in Dallas with Akin Ayodele, who Porter is certainly better than as well. This scenario would allow us to get our Biggest, most physically dominant LB's on the field at one time and could give us possibly the best Defensive, pass rushing Front in the league. We would not have a starting LB under 245 pounds; Possible Lineup and weights: OLB Vernon Gholston: 266 lbs, ILB Joey Porter: 250 lbs, ILB Channing Crowder: 245 lbs, OLB: Jason Taylor: 255 lbs.... And that's just how Parcells likes it!
Now, if we do trade Jason Taylor, my focus turns dramatically, as I feel Chris Long would be the pick almost certainly. This is because we will need a guy who is NFL-ready, we will need the guy who is the most complete player right now and who is ready to step in Day One as our starting OLB to replace the departed Taylor. That player who be Chris Long. Chris Long will be ready to play Week One, Gholston most likely will not, simple as that. Leadership is also a main cause for concern with the #1 pick. This is certainly the case for us, especially if JT is dealt. One of the main things that a team will look for with a high draft pick, especially #1 overall, is the ability for that player to take control of his team and be the face of the franchise for the next 10 years or so. And for a team such as ourselves, in the same offseason where we would be losing our two only team leaders and faces of our franchise for the last decade in Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor, this factor would become all that much more important and vital to our team. Chris Long would be the face of our franchise for a long time, I have no doubt about that. He is THAT player and would help ease the loss of JT and ZT in a big way, which is why he my favorite to be the pick in this scenario. Vernon Gholston could also very well be the pick in this scenario as well, but Long is the favorite here, as is VG in the other.
For the last time, it will be either Chris Long or Vernon Gholston on April 26th, if we keep the #1 pick. So take your pick!
Mine is Gholston. But you already knew that I'm sure.
Dolphins Dream Draft: 1. C.J. Mosley 2. Kelvin Benjamin 3. Ja'Wuan James 4. Brandon Thomas 5. Xavier Grimble 6. Tyler Gaffney 7. Ross Cockrell