Jacksonville Jaguars Discussion - Page 103

Geo · 07-19-2009, 04:28 PM

I haven't gotten my hands on this year's book yet, but apparently Football Outsiders are really high on the Jags this season. Don't exactly see it myself, but that's pretty interesting (I'm a fan of FO).

The Unseen · 07-19-2009, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geo

I haven't gotten my hands on this year's book yet, but apparently Football Outsiders are really high on the Jags this season. Don't exactly see it myself, but that's pretty interesting (I'm a fan of FO).

There's a portion that was apparently in the Houston Chronicle on the jags forum that's being talked about. Here:

Quote:

DVOA, however, is much higher on the team. Jacksonville had a 1.9% DVOA, and their expected win total was 8.9 -- shocking, perhaps, but a function of their underlying performance. A 1.9% DVOA is pretty good: 26 other teams since 1994 (the earliest year we've calculated DVOA for) have had a DVOA between 1% and 3%. Of those 26 teams, exactly one won as few as five games: The 2003 Jaguars, who promptly won nine games the next season. The average team in that range won 8.5 games.

Furthermore, the Jaguars had a lot of injuries last year. By our injury metric, Adjusted Games Lost (which takes into account historical injury rates for a given role/position on the injury report and the player's role as a starter or reserve on the team), the Jaguars were the tenth-most injured team in the league last year. Injuries tend to regress to league average, which is another positive indicator for the Jaguars; a team's AGL has a .26 correlation with the change in wins in subsequent seasons.

So, to summate, we see a team that was already really a nine-win team that's going to get healthier. I see your points, though, regarding the age of their defensive line."

I definitely see what they mean. Dunno if it'll happen, but there's history on the Jaguars' side, which is all that really means. History on side doesn't always equal great chance.

They are also down on the Texans, fyi.

garrard9 · 07-20-2009, 05:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Unseen

There's a portion that was apparently in the Houston Chronicle on the jags forum that's being talked about. Here:

I definitely see what they mean. Dunno if it'll happen, but there's history on the Jaguars' side, which is all that really means. History on side doesn't always equal great chance.

They are also down on the Texans, fyi.

I think fans need to keep expectations low. Lets say 8-8 and some serious flashes from the rookies (Thomas, Dillard, Knighton, Cox) maybe Jennings.

yourfavestoner · 07-22-2009, 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garrard9

I think fans need to keep expectations low. Lets say 8-8 and some serious flashes from the rookies (Thomas, Dillard, Knighton, Cox) maybe Jennings.

That's what I'm hoping for. At the very least, the offense will (theoretically) be better than it has been in years.

The defense is a huge concern. I was straight up mortified with how bad it was at times last year. I'm happy we're moving back to more Cover Two principles, but everything keys on the development of Harvey and Groves. If those two are the keys to the defense. If they develop into players, they will make things easier on everybody else.

murdamal86 · 07-23-2009, 07:13 AM

1st home preseason game attendance predictions anyone lol

The Unseen · 07-24-2009, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by murdamal86

1st home preseason game attendance predictions anyone lol

50,000 sounds about right.

garrard9 · 07-26-2009, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Unseen

50,000 sounds about right.

We'll see, as Vic says, it's a make or break year ticket and blackout wise as well.

murdamal86 · 07-28-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Unseen

50,000 sounds about right.

over under on 50k? I'll take 10 under

JT Jag · 08-03-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by murdamal86

over under on 50k? I'll take 10 under

Nah, the stadium won't be be half-empty. It never really is. Whatever the reported ticket sales number, 10k more people usually drive up and go to the game that aren't counted towards the blackout-raising number.

50k sounds about right.

JT Jag · 08-03-2009, 03:53 PM

In other news, you are not a legitimate Jags fan unless you're repping the Jags by wearing a beard.

The Unseen · 08-03-2009, 05:30 PM

FBT's first camp report!!!!!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...309-am-session

I wanna go to practice soon. I'll give a brief synopsis when I go, but even then everyone here should just check FBT's stuff. Detailed and awesome.

JT Jag · 08-03-2009, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Unseen

FBT's first camp report!!!!!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...309-am-session

I wanna go to practice soon. I'll give a brief synopsis when I go, but even then everyone here should just check FBT's stuff. Detailed and awesome.

Oklahoma drill is on Wednesday in the evening, right?

The Unseen · 08-03-2009, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JT Jag

Oklahoma drill is on Wednesday in the evening, right?

No clue...damnit I kinda wanted to see that, but I'm going Thursday.

jag · 08-04-2009, 11:53 AM

So what are you guys all hoping for out of this season?

bigbluedefense · 08-04-2009, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Geo

I haven't gotten my hands on this year's book yet, but apparently Football Outsiders are really high on the Jags this season. Don't exactly see it myself, but that's pretty interesting (I'm a fan of FO).

I got them winning the division this year.

Im surprised so many people are sleeping on them actually.

yourfavestoner · 08-04-2009, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

I got them winning the division this year.

Im surprised so many people are sleeping on them actually.

I'd love for it to happen, but we'd have to get some amazing production out of a lot of young players. The roster got absolutely gutted this offseason and will likely have more rookies on it than any other team in the NFL.

The thing we have going in our favor, though, is that the AFC South isn't nearly as strong as most people think. We're rebuilding, but hey - so were Miami and Atlanta last year. There's a good core group of vets still around, so if the young guys step up (most notably Harvey and Groves) we could be in for a surprise.

bigbluedefense · 08-04-2009, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yourfavestoner

I'd love for it to happen, but we'd have to get some amazing production out of a lot of young players. The roster got absolutely gutted this offseason and will likely have more rookies on it than any other team in the NFL.

The thing we have going in our favor, though, is that the AFC South isn't nearly as strong as most people think. We're rebuilding, but hey - so were Miami and Atlanta last year. There's a good core group of vets still around, so if the young guys step up (most notably Harvey and Groves) we could be in for a surprise.

I think Groves and Harvey do step up. I think Nelson revives himself with a switch back to the Cover 2. I think the defense as a whole improves this year.

I also think the offense will improve dramatically. The oline is gonna be stoute, the run game will improve with more touches to MJD, and I think Garrard bounces back with better protection and Torry Holt to throw to. I think Holt has plenty left in the tank, and was a great signing.

I think the Colts and Titans also take a step back, which is why I think the Jaguars can take it.

I think Groves outperforms Harvey this year. But both will be solid.

FlyingElvis · 08-04-2009, 01:30 PM

I like the Jags to perform well offensively but the pass rush & DB play need major improvement for any chance at the post season. The young DEs need to mature quick.

Like Seattle, people have written off a solid team b/c of the previous season with little consideration of the tremendous effect injuries can have on a squad. Any team that brings a guy off the street and starts him at an Oline spot that week is totally screwed. Solve that problem with guys coming back to health and two big Oline players in the top 36 picks and a quick turnaround is within reach.

I agree Holt is a great add. Exactly the type of go-to guy Garrard needs. Someone that will be in the right spot and make the catch. The pass game is just a changeup anyway, all you need for the system is a reliable, consistent WR. Holt is exactly that.

bigbluedefense · 08-04-2009, 01:35 PM

don't sleep on Derek Landri either. I like him a lot as a pass rushing specialist in nickel formations.

garrard9 · 08-04-2009, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JT Jag

In other news, you are not a legitimate Jags fan unless you're repping the Jags by wearing a beard.

I haven't shaved in about a week but now I'm growing it out.

The Unseen · 08-04-2009, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigbluedefense

don't sleep on Derek Landri either. I like him a lot as a pass rushing specialist in nickel formations.

Atiyyah Ellison is currently the first team DT alongside Big John. Terrence Knighton has probably the best shot to start. Rob Meier and Derek Landri are great situational guys.

I'm going with a 7-9 Jaguars season. I like the positivity vibe that I'm feeling, and I'm tempted to ride it, but I'm staying safe...

Oh screw it. I like this team. But still no playoffs. 9-7 it is.

garrard9 · 08-05-2009, 01:51 PM

Oklahoma Drill Tonight!!!!

The Unseen · 08-05-2009, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by garrard9

Oklahoma Drill Tonight!!!!

i wanna go damnit

The Unseen · 08-07-2009, 04:21 PM

http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/...t=34748&page=4

murdamal86 · 08-10-2009, 09:32 AM

i think we'll be ok this season. If we can just stay healthy and progress on the o-line i think we can win the division.