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Old 07-21-2007, 03:28 PM    (permalink
TitanHope
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Then you're a fool, SNIPER26.

Hmmm, Top 15 seems a bit generous, but I won't argue with it. We could go 6-7 to 8-8 with our schedule, so a +7/-7 ranking handicap can be given this early in the season.
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Old 07-21-2007, 03:39 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by TitanHope View Post
Then you're a fool, SNIPER26.

Hmmm, Top 15 seems a bit generous, but I won't argue with it. We could go 6-7 to 8-8 with our schedule, so a +7/-7 ranking handicap can be given this early in the season.
And when I'm right, will I still be a fool?
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Old 07-21-2007, 03:43 PM    (permalink
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i think that the niners are too low personally
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Old 07-21-2007, 03:53 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by Sniper26
And when I'm right, will I still be a fool?
Yes. Its one thing to make a guess that a mobile quarterback will be injured, but to be adamant about something that you have no idea will happen is quite foolish.
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Old 07-21-2007, 04:11 PM    (permalink
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Yes. Its one thing to make a guess that a mobile quarterback will be injured, but to be adamant about something that you have no idea will happen is quite foolish.
Mmmmmmmmmmmkay. Quick question. How do we usually predict what will happen on a yearly basis? Usually if the circumstances around a player don't change much we go by track record. Track record says the Madden coverboy gets hurt. I'm gonna go by track record, we'll see who's right at the end of the season.
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Old 07-21-2007, 07:14 PM    (permalink
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http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/maddencurse.asp

Especially read the last paragraph after the years/players are listed. Not all the cover athletes got hurt, but most recently they have had injuries. Vince Young could stub his toe for all we know, and the Madden Curse could be blamed for it. If someone wants to believe in something, they'll find a way to make it true.
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Old 07-21-2007, 11:37 PM    (permalink
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Originally Posted by SNIPER26 View Post
Mmmmmmmmmmmkay. Quick question. How do we usually predict what will happen on a yearly basis? Usually if the circumstances around a player don't change much we go by track record. Track record says the Madden coverboy gets hurt. I'm gonna go by track record, we'll see who's right at the end of the season.
You're making a fundamental error in your analysis.

Correlation does not imply causation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correla...mply_causation
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Old 07-21-2007, 11:41 PM    (permalink
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You're making a fundamental error in your analysis.

Correlation does not imply causation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correla...mply_causation
Alright then. I'm merely predicting VY will get injured then. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, I'm right. Still doesn't change the fact that they're not going to be good.
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Old 07-21-2007, 11:46 PM    (permalink
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Alright then. I'm merely predicting VY will get injured then. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If I'm right, I'm right. Still doesn't change the fact that they're not going to be good.
Why would you make a prediction with absolutely no basis for it?
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Old 07-21-2007, 11:58 PM    (permalink
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Why would you make a prediction with absolutely no basis for it?
Because I'm a firm believer in the Madden Curse, hence I'm going by that.
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Old 07-22-2007, 12:01 AM    (permalink
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Because I'm a firm believer in the Madden Curse, hence I'm going by that.
What makes you believe in the Madden curse?
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Old 07-22-2007, 12:05 AM    (permalink
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What makes you believe in the Madden curse?
Eddie George, Daunte Culpepper, Marshall Faulk, Mike Vick, Ray Lewis, Donovan McNabb and Shaun Alexander. I know it's a coincidence and all, but hey it's kinda weird.
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Old 07-22-2007, 02:02 AM    (permalink
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But do you realize the amount of players that get hurt every year? It is football were talking about, unless they pick favre, manning, or LT you almost expect some type of injury at some point in their career....I actually think VY will surprise everyone once again, he doesnt really need alot of dynamic WR's on the outside...he's not leinart, he will make alot of throws on the run, and norm chow will still put things into the offense like last year that taylor to youngs strengths...
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Old 07-22-2007, 02:05 AM    (permalink
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Saints at 4? Anyone else think thats way too high?
Me and that's coming from a Saints fan.
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Old 07-22-2007, 01:48 PM    (permalink
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You're making a fundamental error in your analysis.

Correlation does not imply causation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correla...mply_causation
The correlation/causation thing doesn't matter at all. We don't need to know that the Madden cover is "causing" injuries or bad seasons, just that there is a high correlation between being on the cover and getting hurt. To say that the Madden curse is causing players to get hurt, of course is foolish and cannot be proven. What he's saying is that, many players who have been on the cover, have been injured. So since VY is on the cover, there is a high possibility that he will be injured because of some lurking variable connecting him and the other cover athletes.

(I'm not trying to be on anyone's side, this is just the statistics part of me coming out.)
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Old 07-22-2007, 01:55 PM    (permalink
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I thought we were talking about rankings?
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Old 07-22-2007, 04:00 PM    (permalink
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The correlation/causation thing doesn't matter at all. We don't need to know that the Madden cover is "causing" injuries or bad seasons, just that there is a high correlation between being on the cover and getting hurt. To say that the Madden curse is causing players to get hurt, of course is foolish and cannot be proven. What he's saying is that, many players who have been on the cover, have been injured. So since VY is on the cover, there is a high possibility that he will be injured because of some lurking variable connecting him and the other cover athletes.

(I'm not trying to be on anyone's side, this is just the statistics part of me coming out.)
You honeslty don't understand that? It's a coincidence. That's the whole point. You're no more likely to be hurt if you're on the Madden cover.
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Old 07-22-2007, 04:30 PM    (permalink
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You honeslty don't understand that? It's a coincidence. That's the whole point. You're no more likely to be hurt if you're on the Madden cover.
I absolutely agree that it is a complete coincidence. I was just saying if you wanted to use the correlation not causation argument it wouldn't make any sense. If you used that you are saying that there is indeed a correlation between being on the cover and an increased probability of getting injured.

I agree with you that it doesn't increase VY's chances of being injured. You just have to see that people in favor of the curse are just trying to show that there is at least a correlation, even if it is an unexplained one.
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Old 07-22-2007, 04:36 PM    (permalink
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I absolutely agree that it is a complete coincidence. I was just saying if you wanted to use the correlation not causation argument it wouldn't make any sense. If you used that you are saying that there is indeed a correlation between being on the cover and an increased probability of getting injured.

I agree with you that it doesn't increase VY's chances of being injured. You just have to see that people in favor of the curse are just trying to show that there is at least a correlation, even if it is an unexplained one.
So it's irrelevant then...
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Old 07-22-2007, 04:51 PM    (permalink
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So it's irrelevant then...
That's basically what I was trying to get at with my first rambling post. Your correlation/causation thing that you brought up is irrelevant to try to prove any kind of point.

But back on topic...

Someone earlier was asking why the Vikings were so low and then provided information that they had in fact improved at numerous positions and so they couldn't possibly be worse than last year. The thing you have to understand is that nearly every team in the NFL believes they have improved and so while you may have a slightly better receiving core and a stronger running game, you still have the pride of Alabama State running your offense.
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Old 07-22-2007, 04:52 PM    (permalink
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That's basically what I was trying to get at with my first rambling post. Your correlation/causation thing that you brought up is irrelevant to try to prove any kind of point.
Huh? How is pointing out that the Madden Curse is not true irrelevant?
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Old 07-22-2007, 05:03 PM    (permalink
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Huh? How is pointing out that the Madden Curse is not true irrelevant?
Please keep in mind that I agree with you that the "Madden Curse" is foolish. I am just trying to play Devil's advocate because I'm bored on a Sunday.


You simply pointed out that being put on the Madden Cover does not CAUSE you to become injured. The fact still remains that there is a high correlation between being on the cover and an athlete getting injured. Look again at the wikipedia article you posted.
"In other words, there can be no conclusion made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship only from the fact that A is correlated with B" You cannot use the Correlation does not imply causation as a way to say something is false, it can simply use it to say that further investigation is needed.
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Old 07-23-2007, 10:52 AM    (permalink
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If Vince Young gets hurt it will be because he is a running Quarterback, not because he's on the cover of Madden. It isn't a coincidence that most scrambling Quarterbacks have a lot of injuries. The odds are against him staying healthy because of that fact. Norm Chow is even telling him to run more in '07.
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Old 07-23-2007, 11:00 AM    (permalink
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Please keep in mind that I agree with you that the "Madden Curse" is foolish. I am just trying to play Devil's advocate because I'm bored on a Sunday.


You simply pointed out that being put on the Madden Cover does not CAUSE you to become injured. The fact still remains that there is a high correlation between being on the cover and an athlete getting injured. Look again at the wikipedia article you posted.
"In other words, there can be no conclusion made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause and effect relationship only from the fact that A is correlated with B" You cannot use the Correlation does not imply causation as a way to say something is false, it can simply use it to say that further investigation is needed.
Common sense would dictate that being on the cover of a video game would have no effect on your on-the-field play in real life. The whole Madden Curse is based on the fact that certain Madden cover athletes have been injured. Since this is just a coincidence (correlation, not causation), it is a meaningless "curse". We're mostly agreeing here.
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